Because a new coach is not going to have enough time to build relationships with the 17 recruits in just one year. Like I said, unless a program can somehow pry Teflon John away from Kentucky, (can't and will never happen) you won't find a coach who will just come in and right off the bat land the elite 2017s just like that.
John Groce at Illinois
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Because a new coach is not going to have enough time to build relationships with the 17 recruits in just one year. Like I said, unless a program can somehow pry Teflon John away from Kentucky, (can't and will never happen) you won't find a coach who will just come in and right off the bat land the elite 2017s just like that.
Deleted member 586966
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It's also hard to recruit talent with an absolute trainwreck of a season as the latest ink on your resume.
You know I was being sarcastic right? I think it's a great idea.
karmapoliceman
- STL, MO
All I know is that we've seen an 8 game in-conference losing streak 2 years ago, a complete and epic collapse at the end of last year, and absolute pantsing defensively this year.
This is JG's 8th year as a head coach. He's young relative to other coaches, but let's not pretend he's completely green.
Wins per year are trending down during his tenure here.
Bottom line: year 4 shouldn't look anything like this at all, injuries or not.
As any Illini fan, I just want to see our team be competitive and make the tourney that matters more often than not, regardless of coach.
I want JG to succeed here, but he sure isn't showing me a lot of progress on the "things that can be controlled".
This is JG's 8th year as a head coach. He's young relative to other coaches, but let's not pretend he's completely green.
Wins per year are trending down during his tenure here.
Bottom line: year 4 shouldn't look anything like this at all, injuries or not.
As any Illini fan, I just want to see our team be competitive and make the tourney that matters more often than not, regardless of coach.
I want JG to succeed here, but he sure isn't showing me a lot of progress on the "things that can be controlled".
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
There's a lot of legitimate criticism of Groce as an X's and O's coach, and people are suggesting bringing in someone who has very little track record on X's and O's?
Recruits usually are able to see themselves or they have people around them that can see past a team's win-loss record from the current season. Recruits aren't just looking at teams and saying, "Oh, their record is such and such. They suck. I can't go there." If you really think this is the mindset of elite recruits, then explain to me how LSU and Texas A&M were able to land Top 5 classes last year. They didn't have to finish in the top half of their conference or reach a Sweet Sixteen as a pre-requisite to landing those types of classes.
Speaking of finishing in the top tier of your conference, Illinois should absolutely do that next year given that they will lose all but 1 or 2 people. Again, this team at full strength is a lock NCAA team. Call me crazy if you want but there are also college hoops talking heads, guys who cover this game for a living, that say the exact same thing. I understand that that doesn't hold water for some fans because there are some fans out there who honestly think they know the game better than the analysts out there. (Which is absolutely laughable)
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PaytonHighstep
- Downers Grove, IL
That's fair. It is a big jump, you're right. If he misses this season, that's 3 in a row. Based upon the last 3 years, I don't have a ton of faith they (coaching staff) can make the dance the following year, so 4 years in a row is very possible. This is just my opinion, you don't have to agree with it, which you probably won't. I don't feel this is a scenario that fosters a positive environment to recruit high 4 and 5 star type players.
I haven't seen characteristics in this program that tell me it will change before the next basketball season. I still see odd substitution patterns and an offensive style that seems to settle for long range shots. Now this year throw in the fact defensively they can't seem to slow anyone down.
One thing I couldn't help but notice in last nights game was Groce's frustration with his staff. There was a play in the 2nd half where DJW came around a screen, got lost on the play and ended up camping in the lane for a 3 second violation. I saw Groce pull aside Dustin Ford and really lay into him.
I'm not giving up on Groce just yet, but it's things like that which have me concerned.
I'm not giving up on Groce just yet, but it's things like that which have me concerned.
So how should it look if you took the preseason #1 point guard (Abrams), the preseason # 2 guard (Nunn), the preseason #4 (Leron) and the preseason #5 (Thorne) off the floor?
For any team, in any conference I am guessing it would look exactly like what we are seeing. Two studs that were left (Kendall and Malcolm) and a bunch of freshmen being initiated into the B1G. Yeah, we throw in a veteran 5th year transfer but anymore, all schools are doing that, even Michigan and Maryland....
PaytonHighstep
- Downers Grove, IL
They are knocking on the door to missing 4 years in a row. I hope it doesn't happen, but this program doesn't seem be moving in a positive direction. I realize everyone returns for the following season, but these players haven't made the tourney in their careers. Do we expect other teams to not improve or return anyone? I haven't seen player development that leads me to believe the team will be much better next year than .500 in conference play and win 80% of non-conference games, just like previous seasons under Groce. That would be a bubble team.
Illinois shouldn't be a consistent bubble team. They should be in the tourney every year. I like Groce during interviews and his in game demeanor, but his brand of basketball / style of play hasn't been impressive so far. It's been good for some short stretches, but hasn't been consistent enough for me. Groce wasn't hired at Illinois to be a bubble team and go to the NIT.
Depends on what you think the biggest problem with this program and Groce has been. If you believe that his biggest problem is X's and O's, and we have no major recruiting gaps at key positions, for a long time nevertheless, then fine.
But there is probably another group that thinks that Groce's biggest problem has been his inability to recruit quality B1G level talent at PG and C/post (in addition to injuries). For 4 years now, although his overall recruiting at other positions has been fine, although not great. That does not mean that his X's and O's have been stellar either.
Recruiting is a necessary, but not sufficient condition. Especially at Illinois. Unless you can recruit, and recruit with the best, you will fail. You can even look at the history, Illinois' best teams (e.g., 89, 05, 01) included talent, independent of just rankings. Actually better talent that Groce has been able to get at other positions.
Experience as a HC is definitely a plus, but does not guarantee or negate X's and O's ability. Neither does it guarantee recruiting. But you have to hire someone who at least has a reputation as a recruiter and has charisma to attract recruits.
Now, you can say I want the sure thing, a very experienced coach who has a great track record as an X's and O's coach, has charisma, and is also known as a great recruiter. But those will be the top "hot names" in the recruiting profession and history shows we have not been able to attract those (e.g., Smart, Stevens). So unless you can close the deal with those, you will take some risk, one way or another.
Ive wanted Ford gone for a while now. He needs to be replaced. Jerrance, Dee, whoever, just replace him.
Deleted member 586966
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I see your point, but those schools are the exception to the rule for the most part. Around the country you'll find that success on the court begets success recruiting.
Well who are these talking heads whispering about the sleeping giant in Champaign ready to be unleashed next year? Some Illinois fans also thought last year's team was a tournament team. After all, how could you not be when you keep most of your roster and add Starks, Cosby, Paul, and Black?
89illinigrad
- Chicago
Question for all the people who want Groce canned:
If Groce is kept on for next year (highly likely, considering we still don't have an AD), what would it take to convince you to keep him beyond next year?
What if his team goes 24-9 (12-6 in BIG), tied for 4th, is that enough to sign him to an extension, regardless of his 2017 recruiting class? Would he need to land Tilmon in that scenario or would a class of Williams, Goodwin and a few bigs suffice?
If Groce is kept on for next year (highly likely, considering we still don't have an AD), what would it take to convince you to keep him beyond next year?
What if his team goes 24-9 (12-6 in BIG), tied for 4th, is that enough to sign him to an extension, regardless of his 2017 recruiting class? Would he need to land Tilmon in that scenario or would a class of Williams, Goodwin and a few bigs suffice?
Fire Fire Fire ..... I can't begin to explain how short-sighted this mentality is. Groce is trying to build this program up from near ground zero and you want to fire him in the midst of his 4th season? .... A season riddled with injuries, playing freshmen and a walk-on in significant minutes? Top that off and you want to bring in a bunch of people with little to no coaching experience? This is a program that is on the rebound but it is not going to happen over night. Take away all the setbacks and injuries, and you still have a solid core to build on for the future.
This program is not as broken as many here seem to believe. If you all can't see that, I am sorry for you. I expect this team will show some significant progress yet this season and look night and day different next year. Groce should be on the hot seat if he can not make a very significant difference next year. He deserves the chance to make this difference happen and deserves fan support in the process.
As much as some might wish to think so, the options to retaining Groce are not more attractive. The last search showed that the job is not the plumb that many thought it was. Who would want to come here amid the current turmoil in the administration in a school with a penchant for firing its top-level coaches? A lot more damage would be done by firing Groce at this juncture.
This program is not as broken as many here seem to believe. If you all can't see that, I am sorry for you. I expect this team will show some significant progress yet this season and look night and day different next year. Groce should be on the hot seat if he can not make a very significant difference next year. He deserves the chance to make this difference happen and deserves fan support in the process.
As much as some might wish to think so, the options to retaining Groce are not more attractive. The last search showed that the job is not the plumb that many thought it was. Who would want to come here amid the current turmoil in the administration in a school with a penchant for firing its top-level coaches? A lot more damage would be done by firing Groce at this juncture.
Ohio State will be much improved and a contender. Michigan State will be a national contender again. Michigan should be good. IU loses Yogi, but should still be pretty good. Purdue has to replace Hammons, Davis, and Johnny Hill. Maryland will likely lose Melo and Diamond Stone to the NBA. Tough to replace those two. Iowa loses Gasell, Uthoff, and Woodbury. Again, if they stay healthy, they will be able to compete with, and be able to beat all of those teams.
Agreed they shouldn't be a bubble team. Groce is well aware of this too. He has cited the history and expectations of our program multiple times in press conferences.
PaytonHighstep
- Downers Grove, IL
I would be on board with that scenario. IMO, he doesn't need to land a 5 star big man, it would be nice though. IMO, he can't have another bubble team if he returns all his players from this season. For the supporters of Groce, how can that be acceptable either?
2017 class will probably be fairly complete by the end of next season..
That's a very realistic record for next year. They could maybe even do better than that. Williams, Goodwin, and a few bigs would do. Having a senior LB and RS junior Finke as our starting front court could be really good. Finke will continue to add bulk and I could really see him becoming a Kaminsky type of player.
Generally agree with this. He should survive this year & 2017 class is important to his and our future.
Just curious what defines a great class in your mind, since some are throwing out lists for 2017 that are pretty high? Overall ranking? Homeruns at position of need, such as grabbing the top 100 pg and C that you have mentioned a few times. Would Tilmon alone get you there with TJL signed for 2016? The names on our list right now could be as good or on par with any class Illinois has ever had, is that what it takes to be great?
From my perspective, maybe depends a little on who/if we get as a big in 2016. Absolutely need to add 2 bigs by then, 3 preferred. 1 or ideally 2 need to be able to play significant minutes at 5. Absolutely need another pg, one of TJL or a 2017 pg needs to start and the other is backup. Wings we have this year's 3 freshman and Kipper; 4 we have Finke/Black so we are just reloading at 2-4 and likely don't need home runs. So for me the bar is probably significantly better than top 100 at pg & especially at center, fill in at 2-3...but the stars are somewhat aligned for 2017 to be a very special class and at the same time if we can't nail this one it may be awhile before this opportunity comes up again.
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I would be satisfied with rising top 100-150 players with chip.
PaytonHighstep
- Downers Grove, IL
All good examples, but not a given that Groce will out-coach Painter, Fran, or Turgeon either. I'm not so much upset with the results of this season, but more the style of play Groce has brought to Illinois. Defensively, until this year, it was fine. I really understand young players not picking up on rotations early in their college careers. Offensively, I'm just not sold on what I'm seeing the last couple of years. I would like to see players attack the basket and draw defenders, we seem to settle for 3's way too often. I don't understand only 1 player, at most, attacking the offensive glass either.
I'm glad we agree, Illinois shouldn't be a bubble team.
I'm not sure that the "rebound theory" is accurate for a description of what's gone on under John Groce at Illinois. Focusing on the results, here is our Kenpom ranking by season under Coach Groce:
2013: 39
2014: 49
2015: 69
2016: 125
It's an alarming trend, and although injuries have played a large role, recruiting and coaching are arguably just as big of a concern. 125 is Depaul territory. Illinois has never been at this point, even at the nadir of the Weber years.
In terms of what I would like to see for next year, I think letting Coach Ford pursue other opportunities and hiring a better recruiter and coach would be a good idea. His Canadian pipeline has proved to be non-existent, and our big men have not developed.
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I know you don't like hearing this but weber never had a season with three or four of his starters missing chunks or all of the year. Also, what if I told you that our kenpom ranking isn't finished? That ranking is likely to change. Could it get worse? Sure, but I'm betting it gets better
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