John Groce at Illinois

Second and Chalmers · Feb 17, 2016

Newman said:
Just curious.. Do people really believe that Groce won't be coach next year?

Certainty in either direction is unfounded at this point IMO. I'm guessing he'll be back.

brosox · Feb 17, 2016

Shuttlesworth said:
Ugh. Stop letting kids who aren't even committed to the program hold it hostage. Unless they committ between now and March ~15 they should have 0 bearing on any decision made. Groce is not nearly a good enough recruiter to give him any benefit of the doubt.

It boggles my mind that you guys are still debating whether or not Groce should be fired after this year. New athletic director or not, it simply isn't going to happen for a host of reasons. Perhaps the most significant of these reasons is the fact that no "hot" coach will come to a school who fired a coach in the immediate aftermath of an injury plagued season like this one. Coaches want money and security. We don't overpay any of our coaches, so whatever we offer to that "hot" coach is unlikely to whelm him. And, what kind of security can we offer when we will have just fired a coach who, apart from the normally expected few game injuries, effectively lost 4 of his top 8 kids before the season even began. It just isn't going to happen.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Feb 17, 2016

drillini said:
This is how I would like Whitman to handle the basketball side. No decision of course initially on Groce. Sit down with him, mention that he is not happy with the state of Illinois basketball, tell Groce he has not decided yet whether to retain him as he needs more info. I would also let Groce know that part of the info process would gathering info on the coaching and recruiting side. This could consist of sending back channel feelers out to gauge the interest from coaches and/or agents that Whitman likes to see how responsive coaches would be to taking over Illinois bball. I think he needs to find out the perception of coaches on this job. I would want Whitman to stress to Groce that the 2017 class is an integral part of the evaluation process. I think it is important to evaluate if after this season or waiting to after next season's results would hurt/hamper acquiring a coach that he likes.

I can't imagine a worse way to deal with this situation.

Shuttlesworth · Feb 17, 2016

brosox said:
It boggles my mind that you guys are still debating whether or not Groce should be fired after this year. New athletic director or not, it simply isn't going to happen for a host of reasons. Perhaps the most significant of these reasons is the fact that no "hot" coach will come to a school who fired a coach in the immediate aftermath of an injury plagued season like this one. Coaches want money and security. We don't overpay any of our coaches, so whatever we offer to that "hot" coach is unlikely to whelm him. And, what kind of security can we offer when we will have just fired a coach who, apart from the normally expected few game injuries, effectively lost 4 of his top 8 kids before the season even began. It just isn't going to happen.

So you're telling me Bryce Drew is going to turn down 8 times what he's making now (!!!!) because he didn't feel Groce got a good shake?

Sorry man, no coach is going to care whatsoever why Groce was fired after 4 years by a guy who didnt even hire him. They'll care about 2 things, what good of shape the program is in (ewwww) relative to where they are and how much money they're getting.

TCTORNADO · Feb 17, 2016

Per Groce's contract he is due a $500,000 bonus if he is still coach after 2016-2017 season.

Foggy Notion · Feb 17, 2016

Shuttlesworth said:
So you're telling me Bryce Drew is going to turn down 8 times what he's making now (!!!!) because he didn't feel Groce got a good shake?

Sorry man, no coach is going to care whatsoever why Groce was fired after 4 years by a guy who didnt even hire him. They'll care about 2 things, what good of shape the program is in (ewwww) relative to where they are and how much money they're getting.

If he is really so good that he warrants that much of a raise, he will probably have other options and won't settle for a job where he won't get a fair shake.

BlindLoyalty · Feb 17, 2016

TCTORNADO said:
Per Groce's contract he is due a $500,000 bonus if he is still coach after 2016-2017 season.

Specifically, if Groce remains employed as HC at Illinois through April 30, 2017.

Shuttlesworth · Feb 17, 2016

Foggy Notion said:
If he is really so good that he warrants that much of a raise, he will probably have other options and won't settle for a job where he won't get a fair shake.

Is not whether he deserves it, it's just that is the going rate for a coach in the B1G. Perhaps a more valid argument on why we can't fire Groce/hire someone else is because we simply can't afford it. I'm not sure we can, either.

Foggy Notion · Feb 17, 2016

Shuttlesworth said:
Is not whether he deserves it, it's just that is the going rate for a coach in the B1G. Perhaps a more valid argument on why we can't fire Groce/hire someone else is because we simply can't afford it. I'm not sure we can, either.

OK, so why would we hire him if he's not that good?

Shuttlesworth · Feb 17, 2016

Foggy Notion said:
OK, so why would we hire him if he's not that good?

Who? Bryce Drew? He's a great coach. I'm saying it doesn't matter who we hire, we're going to give them 2 million or a little shy of that.

Newman · Feb 17, 2016

Shuttlesworth said:
Who? Bryce Drew? He's a great coach. I'm saying it doesn't matter who we hire, we're going to give them 2 million or a little shy of that.

He's a coach that's done a good job at a program that he inherited from his dad and that was already historically one of the best in the conference. He may be a good coach elsewhere, but is all but guaranteed. There will be better candidates out there if Groce is let go. Bryce isn't the next Shaka Smart. Believe it or not, Groce had a better overall resume heading into the Illinois job.

UIUC1867 · Feb 17, 2016

zpfled said:
. . . but I wonder what the effects on recruiting in 2017, a very crucial year, would be if we have an on-the-chopping-block coach next year?

The effects will be very bad. Look, no top recruit is going to sign an NLI for a coach who's on a hot seat and might not even be there in 2017. That's the equivalent of recruiting Russian roulette.

Oh, there will be a class signed, but you better plan on lowering your expectations on who we get and you better hope we get some 'diamonds in the rough'.

I see this as a 'damned if you keep Groce or damned if you get a new coach' situation in terms of the 2017 class.

Second and Chalmers · Feb 17, 2016

UIUC1867 said:
Look, no top recruit is going to sign an NLI for a coach who's on a hot seat and might not even be there in 2017.

Jawun Evans says hi.

homesickalien · Feb 17, 2016

Second and Chalmers said:
If Groce is retained and he bombs, we fire him in March 2017 and are in exactly the same position competitively, and almost certainly a stronger position institutionally as we are right now. SFC is done. Whitman's staff is fleshed out. A permanent Chancellor is in place. A long-term search and study of coaching candidates has had time to take place behind the scenes. Fundraising has been established and a budget for the hire will be iron-clad, not to mention the buyout being lower.

If we go into the market now, whiff on the most publicly ballyhooed candidates, and then the coach we hired sees Frank Williams' kid go somewhere else and then struggles on the court next year? The Whitman era is over before it starts and we are YEARS away from even beginning to start building again at square one.

The downside is just too big to make the move now. Get your ducks in a row. That's my take on it anyway.

I agree and I think this is why Groce gets one more year. Having said that it's almost a no win situation though. Say Groce gets another chance next year with a solid roster and he underperforms . He's then let go and we bring in another coach to lead the charge. That 2017 roster is going to look pretty bare and it's a big mountain to climb from there.

If a new coach was in the fold for next year he'd have a lot more to work with and hopefully build up some momentum to make some damage and right the ship a bit quicker. With a new AD and leadership in flux I doubt he goes, but I really think that's the only reason he'll still be around. Hopefully the team kills it next year and Groce turns out to be the guy we all hoped he'd be.

Let's say he's back and the team barely sneaks in the tourney next year. Also we don't land any major difference makers in the 2017 class. It still isn't where we want the program to be, but technically wouldn't the arrow be pointing slightly up? That's what really has me worried is that Groce does just enough next year to keep his job and keeps us afloat when really he should have been let go this year, but due to the circumstances at the university he gets an extra year. There's just so many ways for this to go. It's going to be an interesting 12 months.

illinitiger · Feb 17, 2016

Shuttlesworth said:
Who? Bryce Drew? He's a great coach. I'm saying it doesn't matter who we hire, we're going to give them 2 million or a little shy of that.

Which means we aren't paying a "Shaka" rate....which is closer to 4m.

2m a year puts us in the lower half of B10.

Foggy Notion · Feb 17, 2016

Shuttlesworth said:
Who? Bryce Drew? He's a great coach. I'm saying it doesn't matter who we hire, we're going to give them 2 million or a little shy of that.

History does not agree with you. We were offering a lot more to Shaka Smart and Brad Stevens than we ended up paying Groce. And if Drew is such a great coach, he will have other options.

Newman · Feb 17, 2016

If Groce is fired, and the new coach makes the tourney next year, but fails to get a good 2017 class due, are fans going to be patient if we miss the next two tournaments? What would the expectations be for a new coach that inherits a good team but didn't have enough time to recruit a very important class that would affect the next few seasons?

GreenwoodAve · Feb 17, 2016

Newman said:
He's a coach that's done a good job at a program that he inherited from his dad and that was already historically one of the best in the conference. He may be a good coach elsewhere, but is all but guaranteed. There will be better candidates out there if Groce is let go. Bryce isn't the next Shaka Smart. Believe it or not, Groce had a better overall resume heading into the Illinois job.

He did? Groce has made a sweet 16, that is the only thing better. Drew has a better overall record and record in conference. Drew will have won the Horizon 4/5 times. Groce never won a division in the MAC. Not sure one run in the tournament makes it a better resume.

Shuttlesworth · Feb 17, 2016

Newman said:
He's a coach that's done a good job at a program that he inherited from his dad and that was already historically one of the best in the conference. He may be a good coach elsewhere, but is all but guaranteed. There will be better candidates out there if Groce is let go. Bryce isn't the next Shaka Smart. Believe it or not, Groce had a better overall resume heading into the Illinois job.

Drew may have his faults, no doubt. We're Illinois though and we're at one of the lowest points in our history. We're going to have to hire someone with a flaw or 2 on their resume

That said, no would can reasonably say Groce's mid-major resume was better than Drews.

Drew is 115-46, good for a .701 winning percentage. .772 winning percentage in conference.

John Groce 's winning percentage was a full 100 points lower (!!!) At 85-56. His conference winning percentage was a bad .531.

Groce never finished higher than 3rd in the MAC East division. Bryce Drew is about to win his 4th conference title in 5 years.

John Groce over a program that had won 20 games the year before him. 39 total the previous two. Drew took over a program from his father that had won 23, and 38 total the two years prior.

John Groce won 3 tournament games. Drew hasn't won any yet, but is about to be in his 3rd in 5 years. Impressive none the less.

Drew's Valpo teams have had an average kenpom rating of 91, including a terrific 26 this year. The 4 years prior to Drew getting there, valpo averaged a 157 rating. Groce's Ohio teams were averaged 115. This rating is actually worse than Ohio had the 4 years prior to Groce getting there (107). Ouch.

So yeah, Drews resume is on a whole other level compared to when we recruited Groce.

He's just one guy though. I was really just using him an example.

Foggy Notion · Feb 17, 2016

GreenwoodAve said:
He did? Groce has made a sweet 16, that is the only thing better. Drew has a better overall record and record in conference. Drew will have won the Horizon 4/5 times. Groce never won a division in the MAC. Not sure one run in the tournament makes it a better resume.

Not true. Groce's Ohio team upset Georgetown in 2010 in the NCAA tournament. The Sweet Sixteen run was in 2012.

Newman · Feb 17, 2016

GreenwoodAve said:
He did? Groce has made a sweet 16, that is the only thing better. Drew has a better overall record and record in conference. Drew will have won the Horizon 4/5 times. Groce never won a division in the MAC. Not sure one run in the tournament makes it a better resume.

I'd personally put more weight on march madness success than low midmajor conference success, but hey that's just me. But that's not all of his resume. He had experience as an assistant coach and recruiting success at the high major level. Drew does not. There's more to a resume than conference record, especially when it's at a much lower level. If that were the case, you'd see guys giving multimillion offers to Brad Underwood..

homesickalien · Feb 17, 2016

Newman said:
He's a coach that's done a good job at a program that he inherited from his dad and that was already historically one of the best in the conference. He may be a good coach elsewhere, but is all but guaranteed. There will be better candidates out there if Groce is let go. Bryce isn't the next Shaka Smart. Believe it or not, Groce had a better overall resume heading into the Illinois job.

Not even close. Drew's resume is better than Groce's. He's 61-18 in conference with 3 1st place finishes and most likely a 4th this year. Groce was 34-30 never finishing higher than 3rd. Groce just had a couple teams get hot at the end of the year. The consistency in winning is what stands out to me. Groce didn't have that at Ohio and you've seen how consistent his teams have been here.

Not saying Drew is going to be a savior, but he's clearly a better candidate then Groce ever was.

UIUC1867 · Feb 17, 2016

There's recruiting for a Horizon League team and then there's recruiting for a B1G team. Do we really know if Drew can recruit well on the P5 level? That's really my only question mark about Bryce Drew.

Second and Chalmers · Feb 17, 2016

Newman said:
I'd personally put more weight on march madness success than low midmajor conference success, but hey that's just me. But that's not all of his resume. He had experience as an assistant coach and recruiting success at the high major level. Drew does not. There's more to a resume than conference record, especially when it's at a much lower level. If that were the case, you'd see guys giving multimillion offers to Brad Underwood..

Take the large sample size of competition night-in, night-out in true road games against teams that have thoroughly scouted you over the tiny, meaningless fluke sample sizes of NCAA tournament success every day of the week.

The graveyards of major conferences are littered with the bodies of "hot Cinderella coaches" whose qualifications were a brief March mirage. John Groce looks soon to join them. 34-30 in the MAC was a HUGE red flag.

Shuttlesworth · Feb 17, 2016

UIUC1867 said:
There's recruiting for a Horizon League team and then there's recruiting for a B1G team. Do we really know if Drew can recruit well on the P5 level? That's really my only question mark about Bryce Drew.

Two things give me hope with that:

1. His brother. His brother took over perhaps the worst scandal in American sports history and somehow, someway turged it into a destination for top players. It's not like kids were flocking to Waco before the scandal either. Obviously Bryce is a totally different person, but hopefully some traits run in the family.

2. The state of Illinois. Half of Valpos roster is from here. He already should have the ins and relationships needed to succeed at recruiting at Illinois; what changes is the caliber of player.