John Groce at Illinois

Second and Chalmers said:

Take the large sample size of competition night-in, night-out in true road games against teams that have thoroughly scouted you over the tiny, meaningless fluke sample sizes of NCAA tournament success every day of the week.

The graveyards of major conferences are littered with the bodies of "hot Cinderella coaches" whose qualifications were a brief March mirage. John Groce looks soon to join them. 34-30 in the MAC was a HUGE red flag.

Click to expand...

I was concerned about his record at the time of his hiring, but I think his recruiting experience and post season success made up for it at the time. I just wouldn't be optimistic that a small school coach that doesn't have any high major experience would be able to convince enough recruits in the 2017 class for it to be considered a successful class. He may be a better X's and O's coach but it'd be hard for him to be successful at this level if he has doesn't get talent. He'd have talent next year but that wouldn't give us much real info on how he differed from Groce. Which again begs the question, what would the expectations to be for a new coach if he's not able to land a decent 2017 class?

Newman said:

I was concerned about his record at the time of his hiring, but I think his recruiting experience and post season success made up for it at the time. I just wouldn't be optimistic that a small school coach that doesn't have any high major experience would be able to convince enough recruits in the 2017 class for it to be considered a successful class. He may be a better X's and O's coach but it'd be hard for him to be successful at this level if he has doesn't get talent. He'd have talent next year but that wouldn't give us much real info on how he differed from Groce.

Click to expand...

I think 34-30 in the MAC speaks to coaching frailties more than mere inexperience speaks to recruiting frailties.

Drew didn't just fall off the turnip truck. He was born into college basketball, was a big-time recruit himself, played in the NBA, has a brother who is one of the best recruiters in the nation, has a staff deep with Illinois connections and profiles as the kind of guy who can attract talent. I share your feeling that there is uncertainty there, but there's no lack of potential.

As far as record/ success in conference goes Drew actually has a better resume than Archie or Mack. Now those two play in tougher leagues but still.

The more I start looking into Groce and other coaching candidates the more I hope we let him go this year. I just don't think he's the answer and I'm really hoping Whitman comes in with a plan of action.

illinitiger said:

Which means we aren't paying a "Shaka" rate....which is closer to 4m.

2m a year puts us in the lower half of B10.

Click to expand...

We also just finished in the red for the first time in a long. And we just paid Thomas 2.5 to go away; so that's takes away a lot of the money. Illinois was going to pay Shaka/Stevens 3 mil.

Second and Chalmers said:

I think 34-30 in the MAC speaks to coaching frailties more than mere inexperience speaks to recruiting frailties.



Drew didn't just fall off the turnip truck. He was born into college basketball, was a big-time recruit himself, played in the NBA, has a brother who is one of the best recruiters in the nation, has a staff deep with Illinois connections and profiles as the kind of guy who can attract talent. I share your feeling that there is uncertainty there, but there's no lack of potential.

Click to expand...

Drew is made for college basketball. I think Groce deserves to be Illinois' coach next year, but Whitman and company need to be aggressive and make a move to get Drew. He's a star in the making, and you could get him a substantial raise to 2 mil, and he would bring Roger with him, too.

First though, they need to reach out to Drew and see if he would be interested. If so, that's when you get aggressive.

I doubt Drew is there to get next year, if tats what you mean

after doing some quick searches. i would be thrilled to with Drew here with the illini. plus he would more than likely retain his staff especially Powell. he's also a good looking guy with a name that families of Chicago recruits know. Played for the Bulls. I mean come on. its a no brainer.

Second and Chalmers said:

Take the large sample size of competition night-in, night-out in true road games against teams that have thoroughly scouted you over the tiny, meaningless fluke sample sizes of NCAA tournament success every day of the week.

The graveyards of major conferences are littered with the bodies of "hot Cinderella coaches" whose qualifications were a brief March mirage. John Groce looks soon to join them. 34-30 in the MAC was a HUGE red flag.

Click to expand...

Bingo. Totally agree with you here and disagree with Newman regarding conference success versus tourney success. The sample sizes are the differentiator. A fluke or lucky tourney run does not a good coach make.

IAmChrisFarley said:

Drew is made for college basketball. I think Groce deserves to be Illinois' coach next year, but Whitman and company need to be aggressive and make a move to get Drew. He's a star in the making, and you could get him a substantial raise to 2 mil, and he would bring Roger with him, too.

First though, they need to reach out to Drew and see if he would be interested. If so, that's when you get aggressive.

Click to expand...

And if it goes public that we're sniffing out Drew, say goodbye to anything resembling recruits wanting to commit or even the current team wanting to stay. Let alone any chance of keeping Groce if he turns this around next year and makes a sweet 16. How many coaches would want to come to Illinois in the future knowing that Whitman will search for coaches while a current one is employed?

Tygor said:

And if it goes public that we're sniffing out Drew, say goodbye to anything resembling recruits wanting to commit or even the current team wanting to stay. Let alone any chance of keeping Groce if he turns this around next year and makes a sweet 16. How many coaches would want to come to Illinois in the future knowing that Whitman will search for coaches while a current one is employed?

Click to expand...

While I am no athletic department insider, I would wager that most ADs with faltering revenue sports programs are regularly putting feelers out for coaches in the market.

PerennIaLL said:

While I am no athletic department insider, I would wager that most ADs with faltering revenue sports programs are regularly putting feelers out for coaches in the market.

Click to expand...

That and I don't believe there would be a mass exodus of recruits and current players if Groce were to be let go. That being said, I think Groce stays (though Drew is awfully enticing).

Tygor said:

And if it goes public that we're sniffing out Drew, say goodbye to anything resembling recruits wanting to commit or even the current team wanting to stay. Let alone any chance of keeping Groce if he turns this around next year and makes a sweet 16. How many coaches would want to come to Illinois in the future knowing that Whitman will search for coaches while a current one is employed?

Click to expand...

AD's out out feelers all the time. That's how you get a pool of potential coaches right away.

IanKEvans2 said:

That and I don't believe there would be a mass exodus of recruits and current players if Groce were to be let go. That being said, I think Groce stays (though Drew is awfully enticing).

Click to expand...

I honestly don't even think Drew would choose Illinois unless the offer is either huge or there's nobody else (big 5) calling.

Tygor said:

I honestly don't even think Drew would choose Illinois unless the offer is either huge or there's nobody else (big 5) calling.

Click to expand...

Why wouldn't he? Any offer Illinois makes him would be huge. He's making less than 300k.

List the potential D1 jobs opening this year, and you'll see this is the what to strike. If we wait a year, there's a chance ucla and maybe Syracuse opened.

PerennIaLL said:

Bingo. Totally agree with you here and disagree with Newman regarding conference success versus tourney success. The sample sizes are the differentiator. A fluke or lucky tourney run does not a good coach make.

Click to expand...

So winning four tourney games in four years is just dumb luck? Yet you don't consider the massive rash of injuries this year to be a fluke?

IAmChrisFarley said:

Why wouldn't he? Any offer Illinois makes him would be huge. He's making less than 300k.

List the potential D1 jobs opening this year, and you'll see this is the what to strike. If we wait a year, there's a chance ucla and maybe Syracuse opened.

Click to expand...

Not saying that all of these will come open, but there's a decent chance of Louisville, Wisconsin (apparently Alvarez wants to make a splash), Memphis, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and UNLV come open. Also, with the scandal at UNC there is the chance Roy Williams retires. I would imagine with the current state of Illinois basketball, there will be several schools above us in the pecking order this year or next.

illinifan3923 said:

Not saying that all of these will come open, but there's a decent chance of Louisville, Wisconsin (apparently Alvarez wants to make a splash), Memphis, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and UNLV come open. Also, with the scandal at UNC there is the chance Roy Williams retires. I would imagine with the current state of Illinois basketball, there will be several schools above us in the pecking order this year or next.

Click to expand...

Yeah there's no way of knowing what the scene will look like in a few months. Don't forget Minnesota, maybe LSU if they miss the tournament, TCU, maybe even Kansas State and UCLA/Stanford. I've heard these coaches all mentioned as perhaps being out the door.

I think there's always going to be 5-10ish bigger name jobs every year that are open. I'm all for Drew coming here, I just don't know if it's a huge enough upgrade over Groce. He's up and coming, no doubt about it but I honestly still think Groce should get the chance to recruit this year and see what happens with a talented and healthy team next year. If Groce earns a #4 seed in the tournament, goes sweet 16 the next two years and lands some bigger names, we'll be pretty happy we stuck with him. Anybody can play the "if" game.

Foggy Notion said:

So winning four tourney games in four years is just dumb luck? Yet you don't consider the massive rash of injuries this year to be a fluke?

Click to expand...

I was not specifically referring to Groce's tournament record at Ohio, but I can see how you took it that way.

Regardless, I still put more emphasis on four regular season conference records compared to a relatively small sample size (two) of NCAA tournaments at Ohio.

The injuries this year have been a string of bad luck, but we have nearly four years of data now in B1G play with Groce at the helm. The evidence is stacking up against his long-term success here, IMO.

As I posted a while back (post #1690), I hope he is successful and is our coach for a long time, I'm just not sure that is what the future holds based on eight years of conference records at two schools where he has never cracked the top third of the conference/division.

illinifan3923 said:

Not saying that all of these will come open, but there's a decent chance of Louisville, Wisconsin (apparently Alvarez wants to make a splash), Memphis, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and UNLV come open. Also, with the scandal at UNC there is the chance Roy Williams retires. I would imagine with the current state of Illinois basketball, there will be several schools above us in the pecking order this year or next.

Click to expand...

Gard is gonna stay at Wisky if they make the tourney. Louisville is above us; Roy isn't going anywhere. Besides those two, what schools out of the above list would you put above us? OSU is a push, and rest are below us especially mizzou and Memphis.

IAmChrisFarley said:

Why wouldn't he? Any offer Illinois makes him would be huge. He's making less than 300k.

List the potential D1 jobs opening this year, and you'll see this is the what to strike. If we wait a year, there's a chance ucla and maybe Syracuse opened.

Click to expand...

How great would it be to lose two potential coaches to Syracuse? The OTHER orange school.

IAmChrisFarley said:

Gard is gonna stay at Wisky if they make the tourney. Louisville is above us; Roy isn't going anywhere. Besides those two, what schools out of the above list would you put above us? OSU is a push, and rest are below us especially mizzou and Memphis.

Click to expand...

Agree. This is still a top job--but we'll need to overpay to land someone.

PerennIaLL said:

I was not specifically referring to Groce's tournament record at Ohio, but I can see how you took it that way.

Regardless, I still put more emphasis on four regular season conference records compared to a relatively small sample size (two) of NCAA tournaments at Ohio.

The injuries this year have been a string of bad luck, but we have nearly four years of data now in B1G play with Groce at the helm. The evidence is stacking up against his long-term success here, IMO.

As I posted a while back (post #1690), I hope he is successful and is our coach for a long time, I'm just not sure that is what the future holds based on eight years of conference records at two schools where he has never cracked the top third of the conference/division.

Click to expand...

What are some other coaches that you guys would consider other than Bryce that we might have a chance with?

I'd said it before that I would want us to look at Bryce as an option but I would be extremely cautious in the thought of him being a homerun hire. Besides his winning % at a much lower level, what else does he have in his resume? You guys can use his brother's success, but that's not how resumes are examined. I don't think he would make a splash in recruiting in the first year or two due to his lack of post season success and recruiting. Groce had some big targets that he helped land at tOSU which helped him early on at Illinois. What happens to our next coach and expectations if he is hired and doesn't reel in a good 2017 class? Nobody has answered this yet.

Newman said:

If that were the case, you'd see guys giving multimillion offers to Brad Underwood..

Click to expand...

Who says we shouldn't? Someone will soon, that guy has an impressive resume.

Newman said:

What are some other coaches that you guys would consider other than Bryce that we might have a chance with?

Click to expand...

Below is a list I put together waaaay back on page 47. Obviously Marshall and Miller are long long shots, but they would of course be in the discussion if Groce were let go.

I personally still think Groce just needs a seasoned assistant on his staff to offer some new insight. To that end, I would love to see us pick up a div. 1 coach who gets fired in the next three months.


1. Gregg Marshall: Wichita State: 52
Pros: Obvious
Cons: Buyout, likelihood of coming

2. Archie Miller: Dayton: 37
Pros: Obvious
Cons: Likelihood of coming

3. Ben Jacobson: Northern Iowa: 45
Pros: Best winning percentage at N. Iowa in modern history; good performance in good conf.
Cons: Likelihood of coming; low-diversity of playing/coaching experience (all in Iowa and North Dakota)

4. Bryce Drew: Valpo: 41
Pros: continued winning tradition at Valpo; good family coaching history; Roger as assistant; former professional player
Cons: Only college experience is at Valpo

5. Jerod Haase: UAB: 41
Pros: Bringing UAB back to top of CUSA; strong college pedigree at Kansas and N. Carolina
Cons: CUSA is weaker than in the past and UAB has always been fairly good; some fans may not like his background at Kansas and N. Carolina

6. Keith Dambrot: Akron: 57
Pros: Has 20+ wins at Akron each of the last 10 years; been to NCAA tourney 3 times; LeBron swag
Cons: Age (old); college pedigree

7. Mike Lonergan: George Washington: 50
Pros: Been successful at all stops; brought GW back to prominence
Cons: Only coached on the east coast; some may think GW’s recovery has been too slow

8. Dan Majerle: Grand Canyon: 50
Pros: 3x NBA all-star; NBA assistant coach; Has Grand Canyon at 17-2 this year with a win over San Diego State
Cons: Grand Canyon’s competition is pretty abysmal; might jump for pro job if he has success at a high major

9. Russell Turner: UC-Irvine: 45
Pros: UCI has improved in every year since he’s been there; took them to their first NCAA tournament last year; diverse assis. coaching background including 6 years with the warriors
Cons: Relative unknown; coaches in fairly weak conf. the warriors only made the playoffs once while he was an assistant

10. Will Wade: VCU: 33
Pros: Took over struggling Chattanooga program and improved them for 2 years; has started off relatively well at VCU; assistant at VCU under Shaka during final four run
Cons: Age (young); lost all big non-conf games this year

11. Matthew Driscoll: North Florida: 51
Pros: Slowly built North Florida into a solid program; strong assistant coaching background
Cons: Took 6 years to make North Florida relevant in a bad conf.

12. Mark Montgomery: Northern Illinois: 45
Pros: Has NIU competing for the first time in forever (or ever) in the MAC; NIU improved each year under his direction; longtime Izzo assistant
Cons: Probably still a few years away as record at NIU was bad the last 4 seasons

13. Chris Beard: Ark. Little-Rock: 43
Pros: Has A-LR at 17-2 with some decent non-conf. wins; Successful Head coaching experience at many levels
Cons: Has an odd coaching background; 1st year as div. 1 head coach; almost exclusively coached in Texas

Others: Leon Rice (Boise State); Steve Pikiell (Stoney Brook); King Rice (Monmouth); Dana Ford (Tennessee State).