John Groce at Illinois

Illwinsagain · Jan 25, 2016

Obelix said:
Groce overachieved in his first season. No doubt about that.

He did not overachieve in his second. Making the NIT was not an overachievement, especially with a healthy junior Tracy and junior Egwu, in addition to Rice. But he did not underachieve either. NIT is where that team belonged.

Same with his third season. After Tracy's injury, that team was a bubble team and missing the NCAA but making the NIT was not really unexpected. The only true disappointing (underachieving) element, however, was how the season ended, two terrible performances.

This season, with so many injuries, it is hard to give any grade or evaluation. JMO, but given personnel after injuries, we had no chance at much.

So overall, Groce gets another chance. His overall performance has been... meh, but not really much of an underachievement. Given the state of the program he inherited, I though it would take 3-4 year anyway.

My major concern, however, is that I though we would be further ahead personnel wise. Four straight seasons, not even a single top-100 PG or C. That is disappointing. Going into the 5th year with very visible gaps in our roster. We should have been further ahead. No excuses there. That's why the 2017 recruiting class is so critical IMO. Given that we are further behind, Groce needs a really great class to make up some ground. Not just a good one. Other than Tilmon, the talent at Illinois is just good, not great. For a great class, Groce needs Tilmon and/or some difference makers from out of state.

If Groce is able to pull in Tilmon, and gets the best of the rest from Illinois, I think it would be a great class. Tilmon, with a couple 4*'s and a couple high 3*'s, in a balanced class that addresses the team needs would be a great class in my book.

ILL in IA · Jan 25, 2016

After all I have ever been told about what a Groce offense could do with a PG in the system, I am at the point, that I think I want to see what it looks like next year. I understand the want to see him go, but I would rather risk seeing what this team can look like with a pg he thinks can get it done, than have him go and see it work somewhere else and wish we gave him another year.

illini39 · Jan 25, 2016

Obelix said:
He can criticize all he wants, as he should, but his tweet was truly in poor taste. As was Sergio's. Two wrongs do not make a right.

I think Ryan E was trying to say 2 bongs don't make a right?? Maybe??

Newman · Jan 25, 2016

I'm curious to see what Groce can do with Te'Jon Lucas, even as a freshmen. He was a borderline 3/4 star before he became so dominant this season. It's been really, really impressive. His ranking probably won't increase since they tend to give up evaluating on seniors, but his ranking should be taken with a grain of salt due to his age. He's a late bloomer that has better days ahead of him IMO. I remember he was seen as a pass-first, non-scoring point guard at when his current ranking was updated, but that has definitely changed for the better. If he was a 2017 recruit and from Chicago, he would be a top 100 point guard, but again just my opinion. He was reportedly, the best player on the court when he squared off against King and Poole.

I just hope that Lucas is committed to Illinois, and not just Groce in case we face the worst case scenario.

Oldtoysrock · Jan 25, 2016

Listening to Maverick's explanation of what it's taken to get him to be more aggressive on the boards; Dustin Ford pulling him aside and his own mother getting on him, makes me apparent how little success Groce has had in motivating his players. I mean it's taken 2 1/2 years of being coached by Groce to get this message across. Maybe it's the steady drone of saying the same thing over and over make them tune him out? I know I can't listen to more than 3 or 4 of his press conferences per season (after a loss), as they pretty much all sound the same. I cannot imagine what it would be like as a player.

Newman · Jan 25, 2016

Oldtoysrock said:
Listening to Maverick's explanation of what it's taken to get him to be more aggressive on the boards; Dustin Ford pulling him aside and his own mother getting on him, makes me apparent how little success Groce has had in motivating his players. I mean it's taken 2 1/2 years of being coached by Groce to get this message across.

That's a but unfair IMO. Mav's always been a laid back player. There's only so much that can change once you're past a certain age. Personality is shaped earlier on in their adolescent years.

bigruss22 · Jan 25, 2016

Oldtoysrock said:
Listening to Maverick's explanation of what it's taken to get him to be more aggressive on the boards; Dustin Ford pulling him aside and his own mother getting on him, makes me apparent how little success Groce has had in motivating his players. I mean it's taken 2 1/2 years of being coached by Groce to get this message across. Maybe it's the steady drone of saying the same thing over and over make them tune him out? I know I can't listen to more than 3 or 4 of his press conferences per season (after a loss), as they pretty much all sound the same. I cannot imagine what it would be like as a player.

Motivation cannot be solely dependent on external forces, it has to primarily come from within. You can tell and try to motivate someone to get better, lose weight, stop smoking, etc, but what it comes down to is their internal motive.

Are some coaches better motivators? Sure, but I'd much rather have a coach who can identity those self motivators and get them on my team. I think Groce has done a pretty good job with that (Rice - getting in shape, Finke - adding weight/strength, Hill - reaching potential, Thorne - getting in shape, etc), but you're not going to get 100% reads all the time. Mav is one of those guys that needed to see the light himself, and even now I don't think he's truly seen what he could do on the court if he fully applied himself.

zpfled · Jan 25, 2016

Newman said:
I'm curious to see what Groce can do with Te'Jon Lucas, even as a freshmen.

Yeah I have high hopes for Lucas. He's blooming now, as opposed to players who get hyped early and then don't necessarily pan out.

I'm not looking for a star performance as a freshman, but I woudn't be surprised to see him starting by the end of next season--unless Abrams' knees hold up, in which I don't see Abrams losing the starting PG spot.

TCTORNADO · Jan 25, 2016

illini39 said:
I think Ryan E was trying to say 2 bongs don't make a right?? Maybe??

Well played. haha

201106391 · Jan 25, 2016

I am just curious of everyones' opinion. How many Big Ten wins do you all think Groce should have to win to keep his job. I think if he wins 6 Big Ten games he should definitely be kept. Anything less than 5 and he deserves to be let go. If he wins 5 I still think he should get another year. I think they will win 5 or 6 but are capable of 8.

Cubby Blue · Jan 25, 2016

201106391 said:
I am just curious of everyones' opinion. How many Big Ten wins do you all think Groce should have to win to keep his job. I think if he wins 6 Big Ten games he should definitely be kept. Anything less than 5 and he deserves to be let go. If he wins 5 I still think he should get another year. I think they will win 5 or 6 but are capable of 8.

man, that is a fine line there. 6 he stays and 4 he is fired.

Add to it that it certainly possible that we will have to do it without Thorne or Black for the rest of the year. Tough sledding.

I just want the players to play hard all the time right now. Let the chips fall where they may and give Groce the ultimatum for next year of make the tourney or your gone. Wipe the injury season off the slate. I believe we make it easy next year. :thumb: Kendrick and Malcolm deserve the consistency for their senior year.

bleedsorangenblue · Jan 25, 2016

I don't really think you can quantify it this way. I assume you are talking regular season. What if they only win 4 but have another signature win and win a couple games in the B1G tournament? I think 6 wins is very do-able but would like to see more. I really just want to see a cohesive team playing as well as they can by the end of the year. Needless to say, this includes not giving up.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Jan 25, 2016

201106391 said:
I am just curious of everyones' opinion. How many Big Ten wins do you all think Groce should have to win to keep his job. I think if he wins 6 Big Ten games he should definitely be kept. Anything less than 5 and he deserves to be let go. If he wins 5 I still think he should get another year. I think they will win 5 or 6 but are capable of 8.

I don't think this is a particularly good metric at this point. Barring a complete meltdown, i.e. playing like they did @ IU, I think he'll be back next season. For me, it's probably more about what kind of 2017 class he can put together this summer and then how his team performs next season, i.e. make the tournament.

westms77 · Jan 25, 2016

Newman said:
That's a but unfair IMO. Mav's always been a laid back player. There's only so much that can change once you're past a certain age. Personality is shaped earlier on in their adolescent years.

Might be that we want to teach our big guys post moves and rebounding instead of 15 foot jump shots

RedRocksIllini · Jan 25, 2016

bleedsorangenblue said:
I don't really think you can quantify it this way. I assume you are talking regular season. What if they only win 4 but have another signature win and win a couple games in the B1G tournament? I think 6 wins is very do-able but would like to see more. I really just want to see a cohesive team playing as well as they can by the end of the year. Needless to say, this includes not giving up.

Agree with this, esp the last two sentences. However, if they only win 4 including another signature win then they will have lost to Rutgers at least once. If that happens, this board may implode.

Vermilion Slim · Jan 25, 2016

Just some food for thought. I took the time to look at each Big Ten coaching staff and ranked each team’s most experienced assistant coach from most experienced to least experienced (this is of course subjective to a degree). My theory was that all though John Groce probably deserves another year given the bad luck he’s experienced thus far, a changeup in his staff may be warranted regardless of how Illinois finishes. Here is the list ((Team – Assis Coach (starting year at school): best previous position (tenure)):

Nebraska -- Jim Molinari (2014): Bradley – Head Coach (1991-2002)
Iowa -- Kirk Speraw (2010): Central Florida – Head Coach (1993-2010)
Michigan – Jeff Meyer (2008): Liberty – Head Coach (1981-1997)
Ohio State -- Dave Dickerson (2010): Tulane – Head Coach (2005-2010)
Indiana – Tim Buckley (2008): Ball State – Head Coach (2000-2006)
Maryland -- Cliff Warren (2014): Jacksonville – Head Coach (2005-2014)
Rutgers -- Greg Vetrone (2014): Fairleigh Dickinson – Head Coach (2009-2013)
Michigan State -- Mike Garland (2007): Cleveland State – Head Coach (2003-2006)
Purdue -- Greg Gary (2011): Centenary – Head Coach (2008-2010)
Northwestern – Brian James (2013): Philadelphia 76ers – Assistant Coach (2010-2013)
Wisconsin – Gary Close (2003): Iowa – Assistant Coach (1986-1999)… (also just hired Howard Moore (2015): Ill-Chicago – Head Coach (2010-2015))
Minnesota -- Nate Pomeday (2014): Oregon State – Assistant Coach (2008-2014)
Penn State -- Keith Urgo (2011): Villanova – Assistant Coach (2009-2011)
Illinois – Jamal Walker (2013): Arizona – Dir. of Basketball Operations (2010)

To represent this graphically, I took the above rankings and plotted them against total Big Ten wins from last season and this season. I think the trend line is pretty compelling even if you were to make adjustments based on each team’s individual circumstances and structures.

ILL in IA · Jan 25, 2016

^^^^^^^^Agree with all of this.

The one area I think Groce must change should he come back (hope he does) is to go out and get an assistant who was a head coach as a smaller school. Get a guy who can help with game planning/adjustments. Esp. with Groce as active of a recruiter as he is.

Deleted member 586966 · Jan 25, 2016

Vermilion Slim said:
Just some food for thought. I took the time to look at each Big Ten coaching staff and ranked each team’s most experienced assistant coach from most experienced to least experienced (this is of course subjective to a degree). My theory was that all though John Groce probably deserves another year given the bad luck he’s experienced thus far, a changeup in his staff may be warranted regardless of how Illinois finishes. Here is the list ((Team – Assis Coach (starting year at school): best previous position (tenure)):

Nebraska -- Jim Molinari (2014): Bradley – Head Coach (1991-2002)
Iowa -- Kirk Speraw (2010): Central Florida – Head Coach (1993-2010)
Michigan – Jeff Meyer (2008): Liberty – Head Coach (1981-1997)
Ohio State -- Dave Dickerson (2010): Tulane – Head Coach (2005-2010)
Indiana – Tim Buckley (2008): Ball State – Head Coach (2000-2006)
Maryland -- Cliff Warren (2014): Jacksonville – Head Coach (2005-2014)
Rutgers -- Greg Vetrone (2014): Fairleigh Dickinson – Head Coach (2009-2013)
Michigan State -- Mike Garland (2007): Cleveland State – Head Coach (2003-2006)
Purdue -- Greg Gary (2011): Centenary – Head Coach (2008-2010)
Northwestern – Brian James (2013): Philadelphia 76ers – Assistant Coach (2010-2013)
Wisconsin – Gary Close (2003): Iowa – Assistant Coach (1986-1999)… (also just hired Howard Moore (2015): Ill-Chicago – Head Coach (2010-2015))
Minnesota -- Nate Pomeday (2014): Oregon State – Assistant Coach (2008-2014)
Penn State -- Keith Urgo (2011): Villanova – Assistant Coach (2009-2011)
Illinois – Jamal Walker (2013): Arizona – Dir. of Basketball Operations (2010)

To represent this graphically, I took the above rankings and plotted them against total Big Ten wins from last season and this season. I think the trend line is pretty compelling even if you were to make adjustments based on each team’s individual circumstances and structures.

Seems like a pretty weak correlation to me; the r^2 value of that trendline is probably pretty small.

whovous · Jan 25, 2016

Wow, nine teams with top assistants sharing 79 years of Div I head coaching experience, plus a former NBA assistant. Certainly adds fuel to the staff shakeup fire.

JG should not and will not discuss this publicly during the season, but this is something that really should be fixed.

Obelix · Jan 25, 2016

Vermilion Slim said:
Just some food for thought. I took the time to look at each Big Ten coaching staff and ranked each team’s most experienced assistant coach from most experienced to least experienced (this is of course subjective to a degree). My theory was that all though John Groce probably deserves another year given the bad luck he’s experienced thus far, a changeup in his staff may be warranted regardless of how Illinois finishes. Here is the list ((Team – Assis Coach (starting year at school): best previous position (tenure)):

Nebraska -- Jim Molinari (2014): Bradley – Head Coach (1991-2002)
Iowa -- Kirk Speraw (2010): Central Florida – Head Coach (1993-2010)
Michigan – Jeff Meyer (2008): Liberty – Head Coach (1981-1997)
Ohio State -- Dave Dickerson (2010): Tulane – Head Coach (2005-2010)
Indiana – Tim Buckley (2008): Ball State – Head Coach (2000-2006)
Maryland -- Cliff Warren (2014): Jacksonville – Head Coach (2005-2014)
Rutgers -- Greg Vetrone (2014): Fairleigh Dickinson – Head Coach (2009-2013)
Michigan State -- Mike Garland (2007): Cleveland State – Head Coach (2003-2006)
Purdue -- Greg Gary (2011): Centenary – Head Coach (2008-2010)
Northwestern – Brian James (2013): Philadelphia 76ers – Assistant Coach (2010-2013)
Wisconsin – Gary Close (2003): Iowa – Assistant Coach (1986-1999)… (also just hired Howard Moore (2015): Ill-Chicago – Head Coach (2010-2015))
Minnesota -- Nate Pomeday (2014): Oregon State – Assistant Coach (2008-2014)
Penn State -- Keith Urgo (2011): Villanova – Assistant Coach (2009-2011)
Illinois – Jamal Walker (2013): Arizona – Dir. of Basketball Operations (2010)

To represent this graphically, I took the above rankings and plotted them against total Big Ten wins from last season and this season. I think the trend line is pretty compelling even if you were to make adjustments based on each team’s individual circumstances and structures.

No offense, and I applaud you for taking time to do research. But these data show absolutely nothing. It seems to me that you declared Jamal Walker our most experienced assistant coach (totally arbitrary) and on top of that you focused on the fact that Walker spent just a year at Arizona as Dir. of Basketball Operations (probably to promote his career at a top school), even ignoring his multiple previous years as an assistant, as well as the multiple previous years as assistants from the rest of our staff.

It seems to me that you could have made statement like "look, Jamal Walker spent one year as Dir. of basketball operations at Arizona," which by itself would not have meant anything and be done with it. Again, do not take it personally, it seems that you spent a good amount of time on this, but it shows absolutely nothing IMO.

Vermilion Slim · Jan 25, 2016

Obelix said:
No offense, and I applaud you for taking time to do research. But these data show absolutely nothing. It seems to me that you declared Jamal Walker our most experienced assistant coach (totally arbitrary) and on top of that you focused on the fact that Walker spent just a year at Arizona as Dir. of Basketball Operations (probably to promote his career at a top school), even ignoring his multiple previous years as an assistant, as well as the multiple previous years as assistants from the rest of our staff.

It seems to me that you could have made statement like "look, Jamal Walker spent one year as Dir. of basketball operations at Arizona," which by itself would not have meant anything and be done with it. Again, do not take it personally, it seems that you spent a good amount of time on this, but it shows absolutely nothing IMO.

You are absolutely correct that ranking the coaches is a bit of an arbitrary exercise. Still, even if you listed Coach Walker's other assistant coaching exp. at Ohio, Murray State, or St. Louis or chose Coach Parham's time at Illinois State, I don't think it would move either up the list all that much. I really would be interested (not saying this sarcastically at all) to know how others would rank those coaches.

I think it is a bit odd that you would say the data show nothing when considering we are one of only a few schools in the BIG without a former Div 1 head coach on our staff. And the schools most similar to us our Penn State and Minnesota.

Obelix · Jan 25, 2016

Vermilion Slim said:
You are absolutely correct that ranking the coaches is a bit of an arbitrary exercise. Still, even if you listed Coach Walker's other assistant coaching exp. at Ohio, Murray State, or St. Louis or chose Coach Parham's time at Illinois State, I don't think it would move either up the list all that much. I really would be interested (not saying this sarcastically at all) to know how others would rank those coaches.

I think it is a bit odd that you would say the data show nothing when considering we are one of only a few schools in the BIG without a former Div 1 head coach on our staff. And the schools most similar to us our Penn State and Minnesota.

There is a difference in making a point, which you could have made without distorting data (e.g., lack of former head coaching experience) and different to try to make a different point using biased data. The data point of Walker at Arizona clearly distorts data on any statistical inference. Walker and Parham have been assistant coaches since 1997. That is almost 20 years, plenty of time. Greg Vetrone having being a coach at Fairleigh Dickinson has zero impact on their program.

I do agree that our staff needs a shake-up but for different reasons. Not because of lack of experience, but simply that they are not that good. Four years into the Groce tenure, we still have visible roster gaps. That is on Groce as well, not just the assistants. I'd rather add Dee Brown, for example, on our staff than a previous head coach who has no future. Your point actually would be totally against that idea.

zpfled · Jan 25, 2016

Vermilion Slim said:
Just some food for thought. I took the time to look at each Big Ten coaching staff and ranked each team’s most experienced assistant coach from most experienced to least experienced (this is of course subjective to a degree). My theory was that all though John Groce probably deserves another year given the bad luck he’s experienced thus far, a changeup in his staff may be warranted regardless of how Illinois finishes. Here is the list ((Team – Assis Coach (starting year at school): best previous position (tenure)):

Nebraska -- Jim Molinari (2014): Bradley – Head Coach (1991-2002)
Iowa -- Kirk Speraw (2010): Central Florida – Head Coach (1993-2010)
Michigan – Jeff Meyer (2008): Liberty – Head Coach (1981-1997)
Ohio State -- Dave Dickerson (2010): Tulane – Head Coach (2005-2010)
Indiana – Tim Buckley (2008): Ball State – Head Coach (2000-2006)
Maryland -- Cliff Warren (2014): Jacksonville – Head Coach (2005-2014)
Rutgers -- Greg Vetrone (2014): Fairleigh Dickinson – Head Coach (2009-2013)
Michigan State -- Mike Garland (2007): Cleveland State – Head Coach (2003-2006)
Purdue -- Greg Gary (2011): Centenary – Head Coach (2008-2010)
Northwestern – Brian James (2013): Philadelphia 76ers – Assistant Coach (2010-2013)
Wisconsin – Gary Close (2003): Iowa – Assistant Coach (1986-1999)… (also just hired Howard Moore (2015): Ill-Chicago – Head Coach (2010-2015))
Minnesota -- Nate Pomeday (2014): Oregon State – Assistant Coach (2008-2014)
Penn State -- Keith Urgo (2011): Villanova – Assistant Coach (2009-2011)
Illinois – Jamal Walker (2013): Arizona – Dir. of Basketball Operations (2010)

To represent this graphically, I took the above rankings and plotted them against total Big Ten wins from last season and this season. I think the trend line is pretty compelling even if you were to make adjustments based on each team’s individual circumstances and structures.

I like you, you should stick around!

whovous · Jan 25, 2016

Obelix said:
There is a difference in making a point, which you could have made without distorting data (e.g., lack of former head coaching experience) and different to try to make a different point using biased data. The data point of Walker at Arizona clearly distorts data on any statistical inference. Walker and Parham have been assistant coaches since 1997. That is almost 20 years, plenty of time. Greg Vetrone having being a coach at Fairleigh Dickinson has zero impact on their program.

I do agree that our staff needs a shake-up but for different reasons. Not because of lack of experience, but simply that they are not that good. Four years into the Groce tenure, we still have visible roster gaps. That is on Groce as well, not just the assistants. I'd rather add Dee Brown, for example, on our staff than a previous head coach who has no future. Your point actually would be totally against that idea.

You overstate your argument. The data is not dispositive, but neither is it distorted. It shows nine B1G schools have a former HC as an assistant. It does not purport to show everything Jamal Walker or anyone else did before their most recent job. It does seem to show Walker took a three year hiatus before coming to Illinois. Is that correct?

Vermilion Slim · Jan 25, 2016

whovous said:
It does seem to show Walker took a three year hiatus before coming to Illinois. Is that correct?

No, Walker was an assistant coach with Groce at Ohio after his one year at Arizona. I just ranked his time at Arizona as more prestigious than his final years at Ohio given the caliber of Arizona's program.

Sorry if that wasn't clear or if others view his assistant coaching at Ohio as more important than one year at Arizona.

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