Soxfreak64
- Bloomington
Last night's game showcased the most apathetic crowd I've seen at the Hall during Groce's tenure. Though I didn't see any home games in 2012, I imagine this is what it looked/sounded like.
John Groce at Illinois
- Status
Last night's game showcased the most apathetic crowd I've seen at the Hall during Groce's tenure. Though I didn't see any home games in 2012, I imagine this is what it looked/sounded like.
Did they though? Do you honestly think that this would be a tournament team if they were healthy based on how they have looked thus far? Tracy was this board's whipping boy when he was healthy (not to mention he had not played in over a year), LB might be the most undisciplined player in the last 20 years and often did more harm than good when he was on the court, and Mike Thorne was an average big man, who people seemed to love becauase we havent seen a big man like that at illinois in a long time
For the record, I had high hopes for this team before the season started as well, and thought for sure that they would be playing well into march. However after watching them play I can't say I would expect much more with everybody healthy than what we are seeing now
+1,000,000
I have been a diehard fan since the late 70s and never missed a game until the last few years. I can barely watch now. This board is the only fun I get out of Illini sports right now.
It's unfortunate that at team that should be experienced and quite good next season will likely be derailed by the exact same problems we've had for years now, PG and C play.
At PG, we're banking on the return of a player who hasn't played in 2 years and wasn't much of a pg when he did, and an incoming freshman who isn't ranked highly. The reason that matters is because only the very best freshman make a real impact in their first year. Guys outside of the top 100 almost never do. That isn't to say TJL isn't underrated and won't have a good career. It's to say that he probably isn't going to be the answer at PG next year.
At Center, we're looking at Mav's senior year and Michael Finke. Finke is a fantastic offensive player, but his defense is offensive. Mav isn't going to become a big ten center between this year and next.
It's a frustrating situation.
At PG, we're banking on the return of a player who hasn't played in 2 years and wasn't much of a pg when he did, and an incoming freshman who isn't ranked highly. The reason that matters is because only the very best freshman make a real impact in their first year. Guys outside of the top 100 almost never do. That isn't to say TJL isn't underrated and won't have a good career. It's to say that he probably isn't going to be the answer at PG next year.
At Center, we're looking at Mav's senior year and Michael Finke. Finke is a fantastic offensive player, but his defense is offensive. Mav isn't going to become a big ten center between this year and next.
It's a frustrating situation.
I'm so tired of the "but the 2017 class" argument. Stop letting kids who aren't even committed to the program hold your program hostage. That's so incredibly backwards.
The other argument I tire easily from is the "no coach would want to come here" argument. Went through it a million times on the football side, but here we are again. You're telling me is our current coach has done such a poor job here that no one would want to take over, yet your solution is to keep him at the helm? It makes no sense.
The solution is Bryce Drew. He's not a shoot for the moon candidate like Shaka and Stevens were. He's very gettable and will likely be gone to some program this offseason. We need to start shouting from the rooftops to make sure it's Illinois.
Unlike Groce, Drew has had great regular season success at his mid-major job. He is 112-56 (.709) in 5 years. 58-18 (.763!) in conference and is in 1st place for the 4th time in 5 seasons (!). Compare that to Groce at Ohio who 85-56 (.603), and 34-31(.531) in conference. Never finished higher than 3rd in his own division.
But herb, what about recruiting? Surely Drew is going to be slow to build relationships or something. No no no. Valpo has 6 players from Illinois, including their 3 best ayers. Bryce already knows Illinois and there would be the smallest amount of recruiting learning curve when hiring a mid-major coach.
Oh and did I mention Roger Powell would come with him? Who his assistants are should have little meaning on who you hire to be the main guy. But Powell should help silence the loud crowd of people who want an Illinois guy. That's an added bonus.
Someone will indeed hire Drew and soon. When he moves up next, he'll likely be unattainable for us. Don't let the basketball version of Dino Babers go. Do the right thing and make him our guy or we shall forever be haunted by him.
mattcoldagelli
- Script Illinois Enthusiast
Ha, no chance.
Sal Iacuzzo
- Yonkers, NY
Why not? I'd take a $2 million raise.
Yep. We'd be paying him 8 times his salary.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
Yes, I honestly think we would have been a tourney team if we had been healthy. Even without Abrams I think we would have made the tourney.
People are really downplaying the importance of Thorne and Black to this team, primarily to support their argument. Thorne gave this team rebounding and an inside presence. Without him, teams could focus on Hill and Nunn more and not have to worry about getting beat inside.
Black was our best rebounder last year (on a per minute basis) and I fully expected him to make the sophomore leap.
The argument that Black was undisciplined is primarily due to his foul troubles last year. I've got news for you, most bigs tend to foul a lot as freshmen, as they adjust to the speed of the game and having to play against more experienced and stronger guys. That should dissipate each year as they gain more experience and strength.
Look at Egwu, who was arguably our best defender last year. As a freshman, he averaged a foul every 5 minutes and fouled out of 2 games, while only playing 10 minutes per game. That foul rate went down to one every 8 minutes his sophomore year and, by the time he was a senior, he was fouling only once every 10 minutes, while still being aggressive and blocking shots.
Yes, Black was still fouling at a high rate this year, in his 7 game stretch, but I attribute that more to his injury than a lack of discipline. But, even if he was only able to play 20 minutes per game, due to foul trouble, it still would have helped immensely.
So, if we had those two healthy this year, we wouldn't be getting killed on the glass by double digits every night and we wouldn't have to always rely on jump shots or one-on-one moves in our offense, as we would have the option of throwing it inside to Thorne.
mattcoldagelli
- Script Illinois Enthusiast
He'll have better offers than us. And even if he doesn't, would probably be willing to wait for one.
To HerbertFish's earlier laugh off of "We won't get great candidates" - we won't. Sorry to break it to you. We couldn't get them the last time our job opened up, so adding a three-year tournament drought and an embarrassingly public collapse of the governing structures of both the university and the athletic department aren't exactly pot-sweeteners.
You can take the position that Groce should be fired the day after the season ends. I can't blame you. But taking that position based on the assumption that we can go out and get a coach of Bryce Drew's caliber seems just as unrealistic as the people hoping for a recruiting moon shot in 2017.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
That's assuming the administration actually hires an AD before the basketball season is over.
However, I agree that a new AD is unlikely to fire Groce after this season, given the timing of the AD's hire.
Sal Iacuzzo
- Yonkers, NY
What are these better jobs? Missouri? UNLV? Memphis? Georgia Tech? I don't see how those are better.
Bryce Drew is that hot? I think you might be overestimating a tad.
Bryce Drews own brother left Valpo to take over the worst scandal in the history of college sports yet it's somehow unrealistic for Drew himself to consider illinois. Our program is in a hole but it's not that bad. Assuming Drew is bounced from the first weekend again, he's going to be hard pressed to get a better job than Illinois. Do not make parallels between now and 2012. We failed in 2012 because we went after coaches from good basketball programs in good confences who had been to final 4s. Shaka Smart made nearly 1.5 million when we offered him. Stevens had a 1.2 million base salary as well. Bryce Drew is making less than 300k. There is no comparison. They are not in the same ballpark in terms of situation. Drew is a lot closer to what Groce was than what Stevens and Smart were. If Drew makes the final 4 or something, then yeah, we're probably out of the running. But we don't even know if he'll be in the tournament yet.
You completely missed the point of the paragraph where I "laughed off" not getting good candidates. I don't even necessarily disagree we may not get someone good. What I laughed off was thinking the solution was keeping the guy who helped get us here.
You completely missed the point of the paragraph where I "laughed off" not getting good candidates. I don't even necessarily disagree we may not get someone good. What I laughed off was thinking the solution was keeping the guy who helped get us here.
CIIF
- Edwardsville
IlliniDent
- Chicago, IL
Having post play would drastically improve this team and open it up
mattcoldagelli
- Script Illinois Enthusiast
With the exception of Missouri, are they worse? Maybe Georgia Tech is? Either way, that's a pretty depressing rabbit hole to go down.
I guess that was kind of my point earlier about the fan apathy. We think that our default position is a perennial top-25 team. It certainly was, but there's no reason to think that will continue. The relevance gap that will exist for Illinois basketball by the 2017-18 season will be frightening. You will be trying to convince kids that were 5 years old the last time we mattered that Illinois basketball is a thing that matters.
Less that he's currently that hot. More that he's a known entity (more so than his record would dictate due to his brother and his dad), probably knows an administrative dumpster fire when he sees it, and will have a bit of extra patience before bailing on his alma mater.
Sal Iacuzzo
- Yonkers, NY
Drew is from the midwest, logically Illinois is the best fit out of all those programs. Not sure what other openings there will be this season.
I think our history of success as an influential factor is grossly overrated. The kids don't care about what we did 10-20 years ago, they care about what the program will be like when they set foot on campus. That's why schools like Iowa, and maybe even Northwestern are seen in a much more positive light than ours. These days, it only takes a season or two of success to get rid of that stench, IMO.
Just because Shaka Smart, and maybe one other candidate, didn't want the Illinois job doesn't mean that we are doomed to second rate candidates. I would put Bill Self and Lon Kruger in the "hot coach" at the time category, so historically the program has attracted top candidates. I think we'd have a better shot at Drew than most because he played in the Midwest and his recruiting ties are in the Midwest. I'd have to see a list of "top tier" programs that are due for a coaching change to determine where we would rank. Just because programs like Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, Maryland, Oklahoma, for example have had more recent success doesn't mean they are better programs for coaching candidates.
Coaching changes typically take place when programs are struggling. All things equal I think Illinois is a better job than most programs in the country. For example, if any of the programs above were in the same situation as we are heading into next year I think a coaching candidate would choose Illinois over all of those programs.
This job is probably around 15 in the country if ranked. How many top 15 jobs will be open at the end of the year? Not many...we should be one of, if not the most, attractive job available...regardless of when we're looking for a new coach.
I don't really think Northwestern can be added there. Their ceiling is an NIT berth, and certainly aren't going anywhere near the NCAAs. They have yet to have a single season of success. Their Kenpom rank is 97. Bill Carmody put together a better four year stretch (2009-2013) than any season of Collins.
I agree that recruits do not care about what Illinois did a decade ago.
It's not the kids we have to convince. I think you're underestimating how coaches view the program. I believe most coaches would rank the Illinois job much higher than the programs in the list above. Once you get the right coach in place, it doesn't matter how old the kids were the last time Illinois was winning Big Ten championships.
All programs on our level go through droughts...Michigan struggled for years prior to Beilein, Iowa has been irrelevant since the early 90's when Davis was around, Indiana went through several disappointing years after Knight left, Wisconsin wasn't much of a threat prior to Ryan, Florida wasn't much before Donovan...Maryland has struggled since the early 2000's...I can keep going. Why should Illinois be any different? We're struggling now, but that doesn't mean the next big coach isn't within our grasp.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
If the new AD decides to fire Groce and hire a new coach, I think who that AD is will possibly influence the type of candidates we could land. A guy like Tiley might be able to bring in a coach like Drew (or even better).
But, if the administration ends up hiring a decent, but not inspiring AD, like Tom Michael, we would likely not be able to bring in a quality coach.
ChiCityHoops34
- DeKalb IL
I hope TJL turns out to be a complete stud but keeping a coach in the hopes of keeping a 3 star commit seems a little excessive.
What if we keep Groce then still miss out on our top targets of the 2017 class? Then we put ourselves yet another couple years behind.
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
We are officially competing with Wisconsin, right?
Realize that Gard's name will be in the hat, but Barry has offered him no assurance.
Realize that Gard's name will be in the hat, but Barry has offered him no assurance.
- Status