Looking ahead to 2023

TentakilRex · Dec 25, 2022

Quick math review of 2022 season (Don't panic):
305 points scored
147 points allowed
Pythagorean Expectation of win% = .811 win percentage
Expected win (pyth ex * 12 games)= 9.7 pyth wins (which is really good thing long term)
Based of NFL version of formula- .849 win percentage with 10.2 pyth wins.

Future is promising

TheChief4Life · Dec 25, 2022

I expect regression on the defensive front next year (we had a defensive season for the ages this year), but my question is this: do we feel we will have enough offensive progression will counter that? Obviously QB is going to play a huge part of that.

mhuml32 · Dec 25, 2022

IlliniKat91 said:
This, also early graduation is possible if students take extra credits to get ahead in summer school. I had a handful of students graduate last week because they did just that.

I imagine that would be the most common route to pursue once you see a student starts getting DI interest.

This. A large chunk of D1 P5 athletes take summer classes. They're paid for, they help with APR, they increase your chances of being able to transfer, they give you a chance to complete your masters while still being eligible.

TentakilRex · Dec 25, 2022

TheChief4Life said:
I expect regression on the defensive front next year (we had a defensive season for the ages this year), but my question is this: do we feel we will have enough offensive progression will counter that? Obviously QB is going to play a huge part of that.

For fun, let's try this
1. We will use PF^2/(PF^2+PA^2)= WIN% to make a guess for what the team needs to score and allow next season to get a certain win peercentage
2. For this example, the team regresses to allowing 20 points per game

In 2023 to get these results (all mathematical guesstimates)
1. The Illini would need to score 29 ppg and allow 20 ppg to get a similar 8-4 record in 12 games and exceed a .667 winning percentage
2. To improve on last year's PF^2/(PF^2+PA^2) numbers, the Illini would need to score 42 ppg while allowing 20 ppg, which according to math would be a 10 win (9.8 win) season out of 12 "regular season" games.

IlliniKat91 · Dec 26, 2022

mhuml32 said:
This. A large chunk of D1 P5 athletes take summer classes. They're paid for, they help with APR, they increase your chances of being able to transfer, they give you a chance to complete your masters while still being eligible.

I was talking about high school kids. A lot of students, both athletes and not, take summer high school classes so they can bounce a year or semester early.

BretMyBeachHouse · Dec 26, 2022

IlliniKat91 said:
I was talking about high school kids. A lot of students, both athletes and not, take summer high school classes so they can bounce a year or semester early.

It's not that difficult. I think the graduation requirements factor in kids taking a study hall. If you skip that and take a credit class you're out early.

Mr. Tibbs · Dec 26, 2022

BretMyBeachHouse said:
It's not that difficult. I think the graduation requirements factor in kids taking a study hall. If you skip that and take a credit class you're out early.

yea but that assumes the lad starts doing that freshman year and keeps doing it for just about every semester thereafter .

illini80 · Dec 26, 2022

TentakilRex said:
For fun, let's try this
1. We will use PF^2/(PF^2+PA^2)= WIN% to make a guess for what the team needs to score and allow next season to get a certain win peercentage
2. For this example, the team regresses to allowing 20 points per game

In 2023 to get these results (all mathematical guesstimates)
1. The Illini would need to score 29 ppg and allow 20 ppg to get a similar 8-4 record in 12 games and exceed a .667 winning percentage
2. To improve on last year's PF^2/(PF^2+PA^2) numbers, the Illini would need to score 42 ppg while allowing 20 ppg, which according to math would be a 10 win (9.8 win) season out of 12 "regular season" games.

Interesting/confusing. I wonder how how useful it is in predicting anything pre-season. Maybe by late in season the patterns have been established and could be useful. I just can’t wrap my brain around how any projected data can mean anything when we don’t even know who’s on the roster, yet alone how they will develop and perform on the field as a team. Maybe in MLB, rosters are stable enough for it to work.

BretMyBeachHouse · Dec 26, 2022

Mr. Tibbs said:
yea but that assumes the lad starts doing that freshman year and keeps doing it for just about every semester thereafter .

actually, not necessarily.

Illinois requires 16 credit hours to graduate. With mandated courses (4 years of english) I think it's more like 17 or 18. But it's very easy to get to that number. Lots of mid senior year graduations in this area by kids who never took a summer class and never really pressed themselves. I know of kids who are graduating early and not going to college but just entering the work force. They aren't particularly gifted or smart or even highly motivated. The only real thing you need to get done is to get a fourth English class in as an elective in your first three years.

I'm not sure how much the requirements changed from when I was in school. I suspect they're a bit easier, but more importantly, kids don't seem all that concerned about all the trappings of senior year that perhaps we looked forward to.

Here are Illinois graduation requirements.

Mr. Tibbs · Dec 26, 2022

my guess is once some of these lads get to soph year and they start realizing they have a possible path to a scholarship , they find out at these camps or from “athletic guidance counselors” that they need to start thinking about finishing school in 3.5 years and they get serious about it

my comments have more to do with this being a more recent phenomenon than anything else . We seemed to often or always get 1 or 2 high schoolers to enroll early . this year it’s half the class . sounds like these kids are simply getting guidance early in the prep years to get serious about it .

Joel Goodson · Dec 26, 2022

Until we know what Newton and Randolph's plans are, there's no point in predicting. Barnes could bolt too (see Tolson). I'm pretty comfortable that the secondary is talented, albeit very inexperienced (save Taz). FWLIW, I have a hunch that Turner is gonna be a wrecking ball. If Bailey can make a soph leap, our safety tandem is gonna be VG.

BretMyBeachHouse · Dec 26, 2022

Mr. Tibbs said:
my guess is once some of these lads get to soph year and they start realizing they have a possible path to a scholarship , they find out at these camps or from “athletic guidance counselors” that they need to start thinking about finishing school in 3.5 years and they get serious about it

my comments have more to do with this being a more recent phenomenon than anything else . We seemed to often or always get 1 or 2 high schoolers to enroll early . this year it’s half the class . sounds like these kids are simply getting guidance early in the prep years to get serious about it .

Oh, I agree that more high school athletes are moving this route. But it really isn't such a difficult thing. There's no "getting serious about it" My kid is very average, and the only thing that would have kept him from graduating in December is the four years of English which he could have gotten by subbing out one elective for a one semester creative writing, even in the first semester of his senior year. He, like most of his peers, graduated with way more credits than required to graduate. It's relatively easy.

The biggest question is whether you want to miss out on a lot of things that happen in your senior year.

Mr. Tibbs · Dec 26, 2022

BretMyBeachHouse said:
Oh, I agree that more high school athletes are moving this route. But it really isn't such a difficult thing. There's no "getting serious about it" My kid is very average, and the only thing that would have kept him from graduating in December is the four years of English which he could have gotten by subbing out one elective for a one semester creative writing, even in the first semester of his senior year. He, like most of his peers, graduated with way more credits than required to graduate. It's relatively easy.

The biggest question is whether you want to miss out on a lot of things that happen in your senior year.

I get it.

I graduated in high school in 1979, with way more credits than I needed. never once in my high school days back then did my guidance counselor every bring up graduating early , nor did UI ever metnion starting early. In fact , I didnt get my acceptance letter, nor did anyone going to UI from my school, until winter break my senior year.

I would have never done it anyway, as the social benefits of that second semester senior year were pretty hard to pass up . I was heavily involved in many extra curricular activities also.

No one in my school graduated early. My good buddy's sister, who was super smart, and a year younger than me and him, did finish high school in 3 years. She graduated with us and went on to Northwestern and became a Dr like her Dad and other brother . Those were indeed rare and mostly for kids who were 35 -36 ACT score types . like one every 4-5 years at my school back then. I went to a pretty small private high school .

IlliniKat91 · Dec 26, 2022

BretMyBeachHouse said:
It's not that difficult. I think the graduation requirements factor in kids taking a study hall. If you skip that and take a credit class you're out early.

I never said it was difficult, and most high schools don't factor in study. The state (at least in Illinois) does require that we include lunch though.

Graduation requirements have to meet the state minimum, but change by district. What it takes to graduate in my building won't be the same as in your local district.

Then we get wild and make sure they took courses the NCAA Clearinghouse will count in their GPA so they can qualify.

BretMyBeachHouse · Dec 26, 2022

IlliniKat91 said:
I never said it was difficult, and most high schools don't factor in study. The state (at least in Illinois) does require that we include lunch though.

Graduation requirements have to meet the state minimum, but change by district. What it takes to graduate in my building won't be the same as in your local district.

Then we get wild and make sure they took courses the NCAA Clearinghouse will count in their GPA so they can qualify.

When I said hard it was in response to your comment about summer school. I just don't think most kids will need that to get out early. Especially if you want to finish in December.

TheChief4Life · Dec 26, 2022

TentakilRex said:
For fun, let's try this
1. We will use PF^2/(PF^2+PA^2)= WIN% to make a guess for what the team needs to score and allow next season to get a certain win peercentage
2. For this example, the team regresses to allowing 20 points per game

In 2023 to get these results (all mathematical guesstimates)
1. The Illini would need to score 29 ppg and allow 20 ppg to get a similar 8-4 record in 12 games and exceed a .667 winning percentage
2. To improve on last year's PF^2/(PF^2+PA^2) numbers, the Illini would need to score 42 ppg while allowing 20 ppg, which according to math would be a 10 win (9.8 win) season out of 12 "regular season" games.

I love it when you talk math to me.

GILL-INOIS · Dec 26, 2022

TheChief4Life said:
I love it when you talk math to me.

Point Up Read This GIF by Danica McKellar

My favorite mathematician!

Dan · Dec 28, 2022

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1608173214689288193

TheDrinkinLincoln · Dec 28, 2022

Dan said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1608173214689288193

Raise the Guardian signal, I'll be renting a BRINKS truck

TentakilRex · Dec 28, 2022

Yeah, the photoshop pros can do this better.

Joel Goodson · Jan 1, 2023

Have a feeling that Pat Bryant is gonna shred a lot of secondaries. Altmyer's gonna love him.

jaked1121 · Jan 2, 2023

way too early to make a solid guess but looking at next year's schedule (no OSU or Michigan) leaves me feeling pretty optimistic for 8-9 wins and competing for the west again. also thought the freshman in the secondary looked promising and reggie love had some good looking runs

IlliniCaboose · Jan 2, 2023

So, unless Altmyer is Joe Montana, we basically saw what our Offense is going to be next year and I'm... not encouraged. I really, really wanted Lunney to prove me wrong all year and he didn't. He's either WAY too conservative, or we don't have the athletes to run what he wants to run, which isn't going to be solved next year. This offense without a Heisman candidate is... poop.

Illiniam1984 · Jan 2, 2023

IlliniCaboose said:
So, unless Altmyer is Joe Montana, we basically saw what our Offense is going to be next year and I'm... not encouraged. I really, really wanted Lunney to prove me wrong all year and he didn't. He's either WAY too conservative, or we don't have the athletes to run what he wants to run, which isn't going to be solved next year. This offense without a Heisman candidate is... poop.

OnlyOrange · Jan 2, 2023

TentakilRex said:
Quick math review of 2022 season (Don't panic):
305 points scored
147 points allowed
Pythagorean Expectation of win% = .811 win percentage
Expected win (pyth ex * 12 games)= 9.7 pyth wins (which is really good thing long term)
Based of NFL version of formula- .849 win percentage with 10.2 pyth wins.
Future is promising

Really interesting tidbit here (assuming I did my math correctly):

Our losses were by 2, 3, 7, 8, and 9
Our wins were by 3, 12, 17, 21, 24, 31, 32, and 38

Arrow is pointing up, gang.

Looking ahead to 2023

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