Keaton's athleticism and strength profiles are holding him back a bit
He measured really well for a perimeter creator, height w/o shoes 6'5, wingspan 6'6 1/4, standing reach 8'4 (funny that I barked all season about him having a 6'11 wingspan... wasn't even close to that... also not even sure where I heard/read that now at this point)
We point to Ayo quite often, but if Keaton could enjoy a similar trajectory in strength and athleticism, then he's going to be very good. Ayo, at the same age, was also completing his freshman season at Illinois and Keaton is a bit ahead of where he was skill wise and has natural mental processing ability that rivals anyone.
What is his ceiling?
Frame Expansion: His added mass (20lbs during single season at Illinois) did not seem to hinder him explosiveness-wise as he still tested with a 33" standing vert and 36" max vert.
Deceleration/Contact: I see a lot of room yet to improve core strength which is going to help in an area he really needs to show improvement: finishing through contact
Burst: He also needs gains in the lower-body to improve first step, creating separation, jumping, etcetera
What is Caleb Wilson's ceiling if he can't develop a reasonably efficient jump shot? Its a real risk drafting that high (just as Keaton gaining a significant amount of additional strength and athleticism is a big risk).
Not trying to create an argument for drafting Wagler over Wilson, because industry-wide its a decision that's already been made for them and they'll be ridiculed endlessly if they were do so, but I can still see a clear path there for Wagler to possibly have a better and longer NBA career.