NCAA Tournament Bracket

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#176      
FWIW, these are the user odds picks on the CBS App (I actually prefer the ESPN app as a user, but their "analysis" is utter crap) for major upsets (12+ seeds in the First Round) in descending order ... gives a good idea of who people think are going down!

31.0% for #12 James Madison over #5 Wisconsin
...
Also, NOT buying it. It took the Badgers a while to figure it out, but they are a good team and playing their best basketball at the right time. The fact this is a trendy upset pick relies on (A) thinking James Madison's lofty record is in and of itself a reason to pick them and (B) the religious-like devotion that the Big Ten is forever doomed to be ~overrated in March Madness~ or whatever.

Well, I reject (A) and (B) this year!
 
#177      

Illini2010-11

Sugar Grove
Think every guy on F68 is picking BYU to beat us ….
Dougie Payne Doctor GIF by Travis


I am still not entirely convinced BYU makes it past Thursday, especially if they go cold beyond the arc.
 
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#178      
I'm trying something new this year. I'm not filling out a bracket until the play-in games are done. Actually giving myself time to digest the field, hear prognosticators, and see what the actual field of 64 looks like.

I'm sure I'll fail miserably still.
I just let the picks fly based on what I managed to watch this year. I can't say it's been a successful strategy, but neither was doing a bunch of research and watching all the shows.
This way is just less frustrating when it all goes out the window by the 1st Sunday.
 
#179      
I'm putting my beach house on 16-15 and Kenpom #293 Wagner. It just feels right.

Anyone want to predict the BIG record for the tournament?
 
#181      
FWIW, these are the user odds picks on the CBS App (I actually prefer the ESPN app as a user, but their "analysis" is utter crap) for major upsets (12+ seeds in the First Round) in descending order ... gives a good idea of who people think are going down!

31.0% for #12 James Madison over #5 Wisconsin
30.0% for #12 Grand Canyon over #5 Saint Mary's
23.0% for #12 McNeese over #5 Gonzaga
22.0% for #12 UAB over #5 San Diego State
...
8.0% for #14 Akron over #3 Creighton
7.0% for #14 Colgate over #3 Baylor
7.0% for #14 Morehead State over #3 Illinois
5.0% for #14 Oakland over #3 Kentucky
And according to betting odds:
33.1% chance of #12 James Madison over #5 Wisconsin
30.8% chance of #12 Grand Canyon over #5 Saint Mary's
30.3% chance of #12 McNeese over #5 Gonzaga
26.7% chance of #12 UAB over #5 San Diego State
...
11.2% chance of #14 Akron over #3 Creighton
9.2% chance of #14 Colgate over #3 Baylor
11.7% chance of #14 Morehead State over #3 Illinois
9.7% chance of #14 Oakland over #3 Kentucky
 
#182      
Also, NOT buying it. It took the Badgers a while to figure it out, but they are a good team and playing their best basketball at the right time. The fact this is a trendy upset pick relies on (A) thinking James Madison's lofty record is in and of itself a reason to pick them and (B) the religious-like devotion that the Big Ten is forever doomed to be ~overrated in March Madness~ or whatever.

Well, I reject (A) and (B) this year!
Yeah, once again "advanced metrics" (specifically the NET rankings) display their weakness. While JMU has a gaudy 31-3 record, they played exactly 3 "Quad 1 or Quad 2" games. They beat Sparty in East Lansing at the beginning of the year when Sparty was ranked #4, they lost to Appalachian State (NET 72) twice (These three games are the only three where their opponent has a NET less than 100). The rest of their resume is constituted of beating their conference up, and a remaining non con that was just weak at best. The average of their opponents' NET score is 194.79. While they might get lucky and catch Wiscy napping, I don't see them as a big threat.
 
#185      
Yeah, once again "advanced metrics" (specifically the NET rankings) display their weakness. While JMU has a gaudy 31-3 record, they played exactly 3 "Quad 1 or Quad 2" games. They beat Sparty in East Lansing at the beginning of the year when Sparty was ranked #4, they lost to Appalachian State (NET 72) twice (These three games are the only three where their opponent has a NET less than 100). The rest of their resume is constituted of beating their conference up, and a remaining non con that was just weak at best. The average of their opponents' NET score is 194.79. While they might get lucky and catch Wiscy napping, I don't see them as a big threat.
I'm not sure this is an example of advanced metrics' weakness.

NET, KenPon, and an aggregate of various ranking systems all put JMU somewhere in the mid 50s in the country, and Wisconsin around #20. I looked quickly at a few game predictions from some computer models, and they predict an upset around 25-35% of the time for this or similar matchups. That's right around the betting odds on this game, so the humans generally agree with the computers on this one.
 
#186      
Also, NOT buying it. It took the Badgers a while to figure it out, but they are a good team and playing their best basketball at the right time. The fact this is a trendy upset pick relies on (A) thinking James Madison's lofty record is in and of itself a reason to pick them and (B) the religious-like devotion that the Big Ten is forever doomed to be ~overrated in March Madness~ or whatever.

Well, I reject (A) and (B) this year!
The other thing driving the James Madison love is that their win at Michigan State to tip off the season was one of the biggest storylines to begin the year because Sparty was a top 5 team. That probably pops into people's heads right away when they see their name.

But in hindsight, MSU was just flat out disappointing this season. While it was still a nice win for JMU, especially on the road, it doesn't look nearly as impressive in hindsight.
 
#188      
Think every guy on F68 is picking BYU to beat us ….
Good. Let them sleep on us
I’m really excited about the way this is all setting up. Everyone is overlooking us, touting Morehead State, or BYU or Iowa State or UConn. Great! Let’s be the silent assassin of this region! We all know what this Illini team can do. What will be a shock to the rest of the world will be no surprise to us! (Just make sure we take care of the ball on late game in bounds passes). 😬
 
#198      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Would be awesome. Although, seems to work more like a random generation than an actual likely possibility. No way Northwestern beats UCONN without Ty Berry.

Well, it is a random generation. Definitely not the most likely, but that's why they call it randomness.
 
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