I am not too worried about Andre's facilitation as he has already shown it quite well in the Indiana game (see LaTulip's video.) I think CH's high score has something to do with it, too. We could still win games without him scoring too much if Trent/Plummer/Grandi/DMW hit their shots but we know that is not a given.
NCAA Tournament
- Status
I would rather bet on Kofi coming back rather than Omar getting a lot smarter in next year.
Proposal - 2 new rules:
1) Any Belo complaints need to have a footnote on whether they've watched this breakdown
2) Opinions on our team performance this year should include both of (a) their opinion of our ceiling as a team and (b) how we've played relative to that ceiling (e.g. elite 8 caliber team that has played at 85% of that level most of the season). Imagine the takes!
Great #2.
Elite 8 ceiling
After all of the ups and downs, I'd say they're at 70% of that level.
It's been such an up and down season. We've played well in stretches, yet finished 5-4 down the stretch. Co Champ of the conference, where 5 losses won it(we started out 10-2). Then, the early exit from the BTT. There just hasn't been any consistency, which is why winning three on a row vs good teams seems unlikely.
So, I say 70%, C-, with still a chance to ace the final and bring the grade up or flunk the final and not pass the class.
1. Watched the video. Love me some Belo! He does try to do too much offensively at times. I’d also prefer he not take threes. I think he is about 18% from 3 during his career. Didn’t check the stats. Correct me if my gut is way off.
2. National Championship ceiling. I’d say we’ve played varying percentages of that ceiling. I blame most of that on injuries. Between Trent, Jake, Kofi, and Belo, we’ve missed a lot of key players this season. If Belo continues to get comfortable and Grandy comes back healthy. We could be 100%. I wouldn’t want to play this team if everyone was healthy and clicking at one time.
1) I do not complain Belo except I hope he will make more buckets in the tournament. He is a great player.
2) For me, this is irrelevant until we finish the tourney and to look back then. I think Brad and the crew did a decent job so far and I don't have lots of complaints (except for losing to Indiana in the 1st round.) Right now, what matters to me most is whether we get to Sweet 16 and pass Arizona (not high probability but you never know.) For me except for winning as many games as we can, the most important thing to observe is the game preparation and in-game adjustment from Brad in the tourney. He is average in that department IMO but he is still young in terms of big game experiences so I will certainly give him time to grow.
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Is this grade based off pre-season expectations, or accounting for degree of difficulty in reality? If the former, it’s too low. If the latter, it is WAY too low.
This team lost its best player, 1st team all-American, unquestioned team leader.
We lost an every-game starter.
Our best player missed five of 31 games. (And we lost his stellar, sorry… amazing, backup to the g-league)
Our player that some were projecting as a lottery pick and almost all were projecting as a top two player got hurt and has played 26% of our minutes, many of them at below 100% health.
Projected rotation guy (and future statue recipient according to some) basically never played.
Throw in an appendix, a black eye, a busted shoulder, a sprained ankle, and big ten officiating.
And WE WON THE FREAKING BIG TEN!!!!!!
If that’s a C-, I don’t ever want to take your class.
InDaAZ
- Eugene, Oregon
One piece of hackneyed rhetoric I’d like to see retired is the “good Belo/bad Belo” fiction. Guess what? Every player on every team has games and sections of games where they shine and others where they flop. But there’s something about Belo in particular that really eats at a segment of our fans when the game isn’t going his way. Considering all the obstacles he’s had to deal with this season, it’s stunning how much he has contributed to the success of this team. And the dude just plays with crazy intensity and boundless enthusiasm every minute he’s on the floor.
My theory is that Curbelo haters tend to fall into three main buckets:
1) Upholders of an old baddadcoach rendition of “fundamental basketball” based on the days of deliberate play, set shots and risk aversion - you can often hear them angrily muttering words like hot dog, showoff, and selfish.
2) Anxiety-driven folks whose panties bunch up at the mere thought of any loss of control that leads to a bad moment - to the extent that they would trade away five positive outcomes if it means avoiding one cause of frustration.
3) Ignoramuses who watch games with no notion of the nuances that produce winning basketball - concepts such as defensive help & recovery, weak-side rebounding, working off of screens, generating tempo, passing to the pocket, and so on.
If you’re still reading, thanks for indulging a good rant going into tourney time. I feel better already! And kudos to Mr. LaTulip for providing a knowledgable defense of a key component of our team. But it should not have been necessary…
Go, Illini! Let’s rock this thing!
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Seth Davis still talking up Chattanooga 
illinihawk16
- Chicago
I've been listening to a lot of podcasts and I have some thoughts about our path (I'm drinking the kool-aid):
Chattanooga
-Their guards play somewhat handsy defense and have a propensity to get beat a lot if you drive on them
-De Sousa is a good player, but they have awful depth in the frontcourt and give up a really high percentage on 2pt baskets. Kofi should absolutely feast.
Houston
-They played Wisconsin (L) & Alabama (L) in November & December, but since then the only tournament team they have even played is Memphis (L/L/W). Hypothetically if Memphis had been upset and not made it to the AAC tournament final, Houston would have 0 wins over tournament teams.
-Their efficiency ratings are crazy good (Kenpom #4, BartTorvik #2, Sagarin #5)
-I think their resume is heavily weighted by metrics and if you look solely at quality of wins/losses they would be closer to a double-digit seed
Arizona
-They're a better team than us, and I'm not sure there's a whole lot of arguing in that, but....
-Like us last year, they went from virtually no NCAA tournament experience to a #1 seed and a trendy pick to win it all
-Our guys will be motivated to avenge the December loss and will be playing with not a lot of outside expectation to win
I haven't gotten past that, but I certainly think we have reason to be optimistic about our path. We could absolutely lay an egg and lose in the first round, but I also see a realistic path to the Elite Eight.
Chattanooga
-Their guards play somewhat handsy defense and have a propensity to get beat a lot if you drive on them
-De Sousa is a good player, but they have awful depth in the frontcourt and give up a really high percentage on 2pt baskets. Kofi should absolutely feast.
Houston
-They played Wisconsin (L) & Alabama (L) in November & December, but since then the only tournament team they have even played is Memphis (L/L/W). Hypothetically if Memphis had been upset and not made it to the AAC tournament final, Houston would have 0 wins over tournament teams.
-Their efficiency ratings are crazy good (Kenpom #4, BartTorvik #2, Sagarin #5)
-I think their resume is heavily weighted by metrics and if you look solely at quality of wins/losses they would be closer to a double-digit seed
Arizona
-They're a better team than us, and I'm not sure there's a whole lot of arguing in that, but....
-Like us last year, they went from virtually no NCAA tournament experience to a #1 seed and a trendy pick to win it all
-Our guys will be motivated to avenge the December loss and will be playing with not a lot of outside expectation to win
I haven't gotten past that, but I certainly think we have reason to be optimistic about our path. We could absolutely lay an egg and lose in the first round, but I also see a realistic path to the Elite Eight.
He is such a tucking fool, isn’t he?Seth Davis still talking up Chattanooga
A C- when we were picked 3rd/4th in the conf by the major outlets and finished 1st? While having trent in a shoulder wrap and banged up knee, kofi out 2 games and a third played with a concussion, belo out a bunch of games, RJ out multiple games, Grandy out multiple games?
Sure we started 10-2, but look at the schedule. In those first 12 games, 6 of the 12 were against the bottom 6 teams. In the last 8 games we played 2 of the bottom 6. There were i believe 6 of 8 quad 1 games in that back 8. Then add the IU game in the BTT and thats 7 of 9 last games against tourney teams. Its just the grind IMHO.
Youre a tough grader haha
I did enjoy his book..Wooden: A Coaches Life…(because it was why less pandering than you’d expect) but I am definitely not a fan of his prognostication.
Has it been announced if the south region sweet 16/Elite 8 is Thursday/Saturday or Friday/Sunday?
Interesting stat from Evan Miyakawa
| Best Lineup | Players | Off Eff | Def Eff | Adj Eff Margin | Poss |
|---|
| Two Man | J. Grandison / A. Plummer | 117.2 | 94.9 | 33.4 | 1297 |
| Three Man | T. Frazier / J. Grandison / A. Plummer | 120.1 | 95.5 | 36.3 | 1116 |
| Four Man | K. Cockburn / T. Frazier / J. Grandison / A. Plummer | 122.7 | 93.6 | 40.8 | 794 |
| Five Man | K. Cockburn / A. Curbelo / T. Frazier / C. Hawkins / A. Plummer | 147.6 | 87.5 | 76.6 | 66 |
Chattanooga does not have depth in the back court. Also, De Souza is a limited player of about 20 minutes and they do not have much of a front court after him. If Kofi can get him in foul trouble, we can exploit the paint. Davis is a clown if he think they can run two wins. I am not sold on Houston either,. They have played no one and most likely seen a team that plays D like we do. UAB can beat Houston. Seton Hall is scary good. If AZ comes into the 2nd round without Krissa, Seton Hall can beat them. I like us to make the FF. We will be focused.
We will exploit the paint with De Sousa in. He is fairly slow and can not hang with Kofi. Kofi should have 30 and 15 this game if the guards dont feast at the 3 pt line.
This team was expected to finish somewhere in the 3-6 range in the Big10 before facing a slew of adversity. To be fair, we were in the 10-15 range in preseason national rankings, but again that was before all the adversity entered the picture. We wind up finishing #1 in conference and #19 nationally. Now, of course we want to ace the final. There’s no question about that. But apparently if this final wasn’t a thing, we’re sitting at 70%, barely passing the class by the skin of our teeth. Got it.
If we were to put this in terms of Kenpom, saying that we are 70% to our full potential, implies that we have the potential to be the #2 team in the country. It's not a diss.
I would argue though that our ceiling is higher than E8.
30 and 15? Has he ever done that?
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
He went 37 and 12 vs. the co-champs of the conference. I think he can put up 30 and 15 against the Mocs.
Yeah. He obviously places a lot of value in NCAA tournament performance which is fine. I wouldn't give them higher than 80% based on the perceived ceiling.
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