I agree about your Oline views. Valentine is our only back with a real instinctual feel or knack for hitting those tight creases, which is probably why he's playing as a true freshman. Our tackles did fine, in fact they highlighted a few plays where JC Davis repeatedly neutralized their star edge rusher in pass pro. But because we couldn't get a run game going (our IOL lacked push, but their interior DLs were the quickest we've faced), it basically tipped our hand and they could send the kitchen sink at Luke.
Penn State 21, Illinois 7 Postgame
blackdog
- Champaign
There are very few teams with talent and athletic ability up front that PSU has. It's not going to be a given that other teams will have success playing the same way.
Illini92and96
- Austin, TX
I look at the average more than the total, because IMO a smaller class of better (more impactful in theory) players is better than a larger class of worse players. The portal can solution for a smaller class. We're a point above NW and effectively the same as Indinia, Minnesota, and Michigan state. So roughly tied for 14th in average.
You have to wonder how much difference there is when the average difference between two teams is less than one point. If you consider that, we're within a point of Rutgers, Purdue, UCLA, and Maryland. Add it to the teams we are marginally ahead, and you could say we're in a large cluster between 10th and 18th. 18th is probably not a material real life reflection.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
1. Lots of offensive line discussion after the game (warranted). Kreutz had a couple poorly timed and noticeable errors that brought up a lot of negative attention, but the main concern is the guards. Gesky put up a 0.0 pass block rating yesterday: (a) that's really hard to do and (b) incredible after he put up a starting stretch of pass blocking rates of 83.2 - 72.2 - 82.9 - 86.0. Going into last night he was the team's best pass blocker. Was PSU doing something schematically that will spell out future issues with him? Or was this because superior talent was lined up across from him? The other issue is Crisler. I've shared my thoughts on him before so I won't belabor the point so I'll stick to the stats. His PFF grade has regressed every week and it was never in a good spot.
2. Grateful the issues are interior offensive line instead of the tackles, as there are more replacement options. Wigenton played yesterday and performed well (small sample size). Whitenack did okay but didn't do well against Nebraska (again, small sample size). The staff has shown a lot of loyalty to Crisler. He's only put up one game over 2.5 years of starting that is rated 70+ on PFF. If it's me, I'm coming out against Purdue with a starting offensive line of Davis - Gesky - Kreutz - Wigenton - Priestly.
3. 1st down run success has been awful all year. Altmyer & Bryant/Franklin have masked a lot of those issues, which has allowed Illinois to continue "working" on their run game. PSU was a different beast and made Illinois pay for their sins.
4. Altmyer has been excellent and I'm hate to besmirch his improved season. The issue is when he feels pressure, his eyes come down permanently. It's a tough thing to improve in-season, so let's hope next offseason that he can take the mechanical steps to evade the pocket and start re-scanning downfield. I am concerned that teams will start bringing more and more pressure earlier in the game
5. The risk for defenses to bringing more pressure is Bryant and Franklin are deadly and it increases limited coverage on one or both of them. I'm sure teams see the benefit of pressuring Altmyer (galaxy brain take here: pressuring the QB is good!) but the risk has been too much with Illinois providing good pass protection. Now that Illinois' offensive line had their nose bloodied, maybe teams will start to re-consider (hence the importance to re-kindle the week 1-4 magic).
6. Defensive line was finally bullied. First game where it felt like I was begging to borrow the Law Firm for a handful of important snaps. It was bound to happen and I was thoroughly impressed with Penn State's running backs. Those dudes are cannon balls. TeRah rated well, Sledge well in limited snaps. There's still some hope there but it's going to be a sore spot all year.
7. I feel less confident about the Michigan game after this outcome. Michigan is going to follow the same blueprint as PSU in the second half and bully ball it the entire game. Penn State is the superior team because they can do things in the passing game that Michigan can't, but I'm sure UM is satisfied to see their approach was proven as a successful option tonight.
8. That final possession of first half was a soul crusher. Bad snap was inappropriately timed, but it happens. After that, the staff seemed determined to run the ball to make sure Penn State didn't get another crack before halftime instead of optimizing play call to score a TD. I understand the decision-making, and there were other poorly-timed penalties that created the outcome, just not sure I understand the lack of aggressiveness when you're QB has been playing so well all season and there were big warning signs that Penn State was going to start running at will in the second half.
9. Saw some complaints about the lack of athleticism at LB coming home to roost. A couple thoughts about that: (1) we've had a recent history running gag about Illinois being in contention for a 4*, athletic LB late in each recruiting cycle and never, ever landing them. Adeoye, Rolder, Cheeks, Merlin Robertson, now likely Alford, all were recruits that the staffs recruited to the final whistle and lost to other programs. It's been an issues. (2) That said, I don't think it's the biggest issue because moving Bailey down into the box provides an (athletic) solution, and it's something we'll likely see more often to alleviate the run defense concerns.
10. Glad to repeat this one: Illinois has been relatively healthy this year, especially in-season. I'm sure some guys are nursing injuries, so the bye week will provide some relief in other ways.
2. Grateful the issues are interior offensive line instead of the tackles, as there are more replacement options. Wigenton played yesterday and performed well (small sample size). Whitenack did okay but didn't do well against Nebraska (again, small sample size). The staff has shown a lot of loyalty to Crisler. He's only put up one game over 2.5 years of starting that is rated 70+ on PFF. If it's me, I'm coming out against Purdue with a starting offensive line of Davis - Gesky - Kreutz - Wigenton - Priestly.
3. 1st down run success has been awful all year. Altmyer & Bryant/Franklin have masked a lot of those issues, which has allowed Illinois to continue "working" on their run game. PSU was a different beast and made Illinois pay for their sins.
4. Altmyer has been excellent and I'm hate to besmirch his improved season. The issue is when he feels pressure, his eyes come down permanently. It's a tough thing to improve in-season, so let's hope next offseason that he can take the mechanical steps to evade the pocket and start re-scanning downfield. I am concerned that teams will start bringing more and more pressure earlier in the game
5. The risk for defenses to bringing more pressure is Bryant and Franklin are deadly and it increases limited coverage on one or both of them. I'm sure teams see the benefit of pressuring Altmyer (galaxy brain take here: pressuring the QB is good!) but the risk has been too much with Illinois providing good pass protection. Now that Illinois' offensive line had their nose bloodied, maybe teams will start to re-consider (hence the importance to re-kindle the week 1-4 magic).
6. Defensive line was finally bullied. First game where it felt like I was begging to borrow the Law Firm for a handful of important snaps. It was bound to happen and I was thoroughly impressed with Penn State's running backs. Those dudes are cannon balls. TeRah rated well, Sledge well in limited snaps. There's still some hope there but it's going to be a sore spot all year.
7. I feel less confident about the Michigan game after this outcome. Michigan is going to follow the same blueprint as PSU in the second half and bully ball it the entire game. Penn State is the superior team because they can do things in the passing game that Michigan can't, but I'm sure UM is satisfied to see their approach was proven as a successful option tonight.
8. That final possession of first half was a soul crusher. Bad snap was inappropriately timed, but it happens. After that, the staff seemed determined to run the ball to make sure Penn State didn't get another crack before halftime instead of optimizing play call to score a TD. I understand the decision-making, and there were other poorly-timed penalties that created the outcome, just not sure I understand the lack of aggressiveness when you're QB has been playing so well all season and there were big warning signs that Penn State was going to start running at will in the second half.
9. Saw some complaints about the lack of athleticism at LB coming home to roost. A couple thoughts about that: (1) we've had a recent history running gag about Illinois being in contention for a 4*, athletic LB late in each recruiting cycle and never, ever landing them. Adeoye, Rolder, Cheeks, Merlin Robertson, now likely Alford, all were recruits that the staffs recruited to the final whistle and lost to other programs. It's been an issues. (2) That said, I don't think it's the biggest issue because moving Bailey down into the box provides an (athletic) solution, and it's something we'll likely see more often to alleviate the run defense concerns.
10. Glad to repeat this one: Illinois has been relatively healthy this year, especially in-season. I'm sure some guys are nursing injuries, so the bye week will provide some relief in other ways.
For reference, the number of teams that finished with less than 2 losses in the reg. season the past two years combined: 11.
Teams allowed in this year's playoff: 12.
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For #8, I love how coaches somehow always seem to think, we've held them to 7 points for 29 mins, we can't get them 40 seconds to work with our they'll score for sure.
I might do that for the free dollar. Itās 100% a two loss team is in the playoffs. The SEC might have a couple.OK, I'll wager $1 @ 1,000,000 : 1 odds.....
Discussion about the PFF grades for the Illini OL vs Penn State:
Hereās a quick visual summary:
Hereās a quick visual summary:
Whether that's PSU just giving us free opportunities or defense making plays...whatever...the fact that this was a 7 pt game with the ball with 5 min. left is quite remarkable given A) the quality of opponent and B) these numbers along the offensive trenches.Discussion about the PFF grades for the Illini OL vs Penn State:
Hereās a quick visual summary:
You would've told me these would be the numbers before the game...would've thought we lost by at least 4 TDs.
illini80
- Forgottonia
Regarding Luke, the rush was coming so strong at the end, it looked like he had to watch for that first to figure out what direction he needed to move to escape, and then look downfield if he had time. Even then he couldn't escape it. I'm not sure I've seen our line dominated more completely than late in that game. Looking back in spite of everything we did wrong, we did a lot of things right to stay competitive in that game. It could/should have been much worse.
thinking about it, it's honestly way more likely that a 3 loss team makes it (less than 5%) than zero 2 loss teams making it. the latter is literally just impossible given the system.
unless its notre dame. they might go 9-3 and get in.
We had the ball down 7 at midfield with 6:30 left on the clock. that's a loss that could have flipped to
a win with a big play or two. Luke got hit a few times then missed a throw or two that could have done
just that. After watching that, I'm not sure Michigan is as good. I'm not looking ahead, but October 18
could be the game of the year.
a win with a big play or two. Luke got hit a few times then missed a throw or two that could have done
just that. After watching that, I'm not sure Michigan is as good. I'm not looking ahead, but October 18
could be the game of the year.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
This is correct, in my view. At this point in the season, it is entirely too soon to determine if a 10-2 Illini team with losses @PSU and @Oregon would make playoff. There will likely be 2-3 two loss teams in the playoff (lose in conference champ, etc.). My preliminary thought is that only one marquis win vs Michigan will not be enough and they may even end up with 3 or more losses by end of year (I think the Nebraska win will lose shine by the end of the year and the Kansas win is almost worthless at this point). SEC teams with two losses will likely have more good wins than we would have, and at 10-2 it might only be good enough for fourth in the B1G (are four teams going to get in the playoff?). But if we do get to 10-2, what a good problem to worry about.
Penn St. had a 79.5% pass rush win rate - that's absurd. As expected this game boiled down to keeping Luke clean and he was under pressure in 60% of his drop backs - which ultimately decided the game. Durant was a problem up the middle, he looked like Johnny Newton out there. Luke was good when he had a clean pocket like the first drive. As others have said if we score from the 1st and goal from the 2 at the end of the half, it's a whole different ball game. But the fact that we had the ball with a chance to tie it with 5 min left and our OL just had a terrible game, means we have a pretty good team.Discussion about the PFF grades for the Illini OL vs Penn State:
Hereās a quick visual summary:
My only complaint is why we didn't throw the ball more in the second half to set up the run and have more of the max protect in - the couple of times we did that it seem to work - just having Bryant and Franklin in a route and everyone else blocking was enough to move the ball.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I know this is tongue and cheek, but there is no way that Notre Dame gets in with three losses in any scenario. The NIU loss took away nearly all of their margin of error.
I agree.
Itās a certainty a 2 loss team gets in. Even a team like Georgia, Texas, Alabama or Tennessee will be a 2 loss team.
A 2-loss PSU/USC/Oregon/Michigan/OSU, yes. But in any comparison of teams with equal records, Illinois football will always be on the outside looking in.
Why should the (lack of) respect we see there be any different than that in the polls or in the Vegas lines? Which by the way were correct if the PSU kicker did not have a really off game.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
If Illinois loses to Ohio State, then Illini will almost definitely be in the playoff at 11-2, as Ohio State can only play Illini in the B1G Championship Game. Two losses, with one being in the B1G Champ Game (11-2) is much different than a 10-2 scenario. I would think the following:
11-1 (not making B1G Champ Game) -> 100% chance of making playoff
11-2 (losing B1G Champ Game) -> nearly 100% chance of making playoff
10-2 -> 10-50% chance of making playoff (really depends on how Nebraska finishes season and Mich/Oregon final ranking depending on who Illini beat or if Illini win both Mich/Oregon and lose @Rutgers)
10-2 (loss in November to Minn/MSU/NW) -> No Idea how it would be judged, but probably close to 60-70% chance of getting in if the loss is to MSU
9-3 -> 0-5% chance of making playoff
Beating both Michigan and @Oregon changes trajectory tremendously, even if there is a November slipup in my view.
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OrangeBlue98
- Des Moines, IA
I'm just going to pretend this CFP talk is not happening. Let's just get to six wins first, then eight. Anything after that is a cherry on top of the sundae.
In 2005, we played a game against them where if they were so inclined Penn State could have scored 100 points on us. The game was 56-3 at halftime and Penn State didn't attempt a pass in the second half. They got a pick six to make the final 63-10.
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Only time in history I've ever seen an OC get blasted by the head coach for scoring....in the 1st half. It was that bad.
unless you're notre dame.