Penn State 74, Illinois 52 POSTGAME

#176      

Deleted member 631370

D
Guest
Again, it has nothing to do with "claims." My post was in response to a statement about Mark Smith under-performing his ranking/rating under Brad Underwood. That statement is not true. For "most" fans, which I believe is true, it was the Mr. Basketball award (which for me is becoming more and more irrelevant in national recruiting). For others, as a mentioned, it can be other "elements", for you it was the "BU statement" or the "rise/improvement" etc. But the bottom line, as I said in previous post, the statement that Mark Smith is under-performing his ranking/rating under Brad Underwood is incorrect.

Whether Mark Smith is underperforming fan expectation for whatever reason, based on elements and factors that fans value most (e.g., BU statement, improvement in HS, etc.) is a totally different discussion. Everyone can have their own expectations based on what they value most.


Well, even if we restrict the expectation solely to his #90 aggregate ranking, the bolded part is certainly up from debate.

I'll certainly withhold judgment until after the final game is played, but he's on pace to average 3 points, 0.8 rebounds, and 1 assist per game in Big Ten play. For context, he has more fouls than he has rebounds and assists COMBINED, and he's shooting 30% from the field.

If that's the baseline expectation for a top-100 guard, then I guess we can agree to disagree.

Damonte is sorta where I had him pegged given the injury.
 
#178      

Deleted member 631370

D
Guest
How is Mr BB runner-up #67 RSCI (Nojel Eastern) doing??:)

He's not doing a whole lot, though in Big Ten play, he's actually right around where Smith is -- about 2.5 points/game, 1 assist a game, and 2.5 rebounds/game. Shooting a higher clip from the field than is Smith.

But he's playing far fewer minutes than Smith, mostly because Purdue has several guards ahead of him in the pecking order.
 
#179      
If that's the baseline expectation for a top-100 guard, then I guess we can agree to disagree.

Top-100 means little, Trevon Duval is a top-100 guard and so is Mark Smith. But as far as averages and performance throughout the entire season (not peaks and valleys) for a #90 ranked player, Mark Smith current performance fits those ranking expectations, especially in the presence of a guard teammate (during those valleys) who has seriously emerged as the major go-to guy independent of class on this team.

As far as the freshmen, the only true aberration from expectations according to rankings (not personal expectations based on other factors) is Trent Frazier who is seriously overplaying his ranking under Brad Underwood. Arguably the most talented freshman (as far as actual performance) we have had since the Dee/Deron era. The other freshmen are performing about where one should have expected based on their rankings.

Now as far as my opinion, BU's overall coaching performance (as I have said) has definitely not been anything to brag about, definitely not up to par this year. Yet, the major overall problem has not been Mark Smith, the overall talent is just not there, neither has it been since Dee/Augie left town (with the lone exception of 2010-11).

On Mark Smith, my personal opinion (and I had watched him in HS) is that his strength and poise are his biggest assets, and should improve, especially if he becomes a better passer (which he can), learn to use his strength more effectively (i.e., overpower guards closer to the basket), and learn to control tempo. But his biggest deficiency, specifically lack of lateral quickness, may limit his overall effectiveness. That deficiency will not be solved under any coach IMO, it is what it is, and is a limiting factor. That is actually why he often picks a few fouls by "reaching in", his latter quickness does not allow him to stay in front of driving guards on defense. On offense, his lack of lateral quickness limits him in shaking off defenders by going East-West.
 
#180      
I walk away from every game with one question—-
Why oh why is there no sense of aggressiveness outside of TF and LB??

I keep coming back to coaching. I thing BU is the right guy for the job in the long run but you have some decently skilled guards that are afraid to take an open shot or put it on the floor when they have an angle. Preach aggressiveness and I think it takes care of some things like perimeter shooting percentages etc. Season is a wash so who cares if our freshman have a bunch of turnovers learning to play aggressively on offense. Tired of standing around until TF decides its 1on1 time.
 
#181      
I walk away from every game with one question—-
Why oh why is there no sense of aggressiveness outside of TF and LB??

I keep coming back to coaching. I thing BU is the right guy for the job in the long run but you have some decently skilled guards that are afraid to take an open shot or put it on the floor when they have an angle. Preach aggressiveness and I think it takes care of some things like perimeter shooting percentages etc. Season is a wash so who cares if our freshman have a bunch of turnovers learning to play aggressively on offense. Tired of standing around until TF decides its 1on1 time.

Aggressiveness has not been a problem, skills have. Illinois is among one of the leaders in the nation in "opponent turnovers per game, the only other HM with similar stats is West Virginia. That is the result of aggressiveness, the definition of aggressiveness.

If you are asking for players being able to create and beat their opponents on offense, this is ability, skills, and overall talent. Unless overall talent improves, that will not consistently change.
 
#182      
You're really tying your "this is Underwood's fault" argument to alstork's shooting woes?

Well, good luck to you. But as a guy who has played more than a few competitive basketball games, there is no substitute for confidence. And confidence is a tricky thing. I can only speak for myself, but I play with greater confidence against lesser competition than I do against much better competition. I can't explain why, but even something as simple as my release on my jumpshot from 19 feet seems a little off when I'm playing in a higher-stakes situation.

It's very clear that Alstork isnt' adjusting well to the gigantic step up in competition.......and his shooting % reflects that.

That's not the case for everybody, but this isn't exactly a rarity.

I'm just trying to get the insight without bias of hindsight reasoning that I think I am getting here. If it is such an obvious fact, than it clearly would have been mentioned several times in the offseason. Yet, I didn't see it. I just asked if all these people saying it was obvious actually remember pointing it out. Or is it only obvious now that he isn't shooting well?

I.e. - your claim, that has been made several times, that he would be "more confident" against lesser opponents doesn't seem to jive with the fact that Alstork is shooting better in conference (11/40, 27.5%) than in the pre-conference part of the schedule (7/35, 20%).
 
#183      

Peoria Illini

Peoria, IL
Aggressiveness has not been a problem, skills have. Illinois is among one of the leaders in the nation in "opponent turnovers per game, the only other HM with similar stats is West Virginia. That is the result of aggressiveness, the definition of aggressiveness.

If you are asking for players being able to create and beat their opponents on offense, this is ability, skills, and overall talent. Unless overall talent improves, that will not consistently change.

Agree skills and also decision making is a big problem.
 
#184      
Aggressiveness defensively has not been a problem, but it has been offensively. Outside of Black, Trent, and occasionally Kipper, our players often look scared with the ball in their hands. And the times that we are "aggressive" it's at inopportune times and results in a dumb decision. Many of our players either lack skill (shooting especially, handles, floaters, post moves, etc...), athleticism to get to the rim, create a good shot, or get an offensive rebound, and worst of all, very little basketball IQ which can sometimes make up for the former. That is a bad combination that = losing a lot.
 
#185      
I'm just trying to get the insight without bias of hindsight reasoning that I think I am getting here. If it is such an obvious fact, than it clearly would have been mentioned several times in the offseason. Yet, I didn't see it. I just asked if all these people saying it was obvious actually remember pointing it out. Or is it only obvious now that he isn't shooting well?

I.e. - your claim, that has been made several times, that he would be "more confident" against lesser opponents doesn't seem to jive with the fact that Alstork is shooting better in conference (11/40, 27.5%) than in the pre-conference part of the schedule (7/35, 20%).

That really is inconsequential. However you look at it, 11/40 vs. 7/35 is really bad.
 
#186      

Deleted member 631370

D
Guest
I'm just trying to get the insight without bias of hindsight reasoning that I think I am getting here. If it is such an obvious fact, than it clearly would have been mentioned several times in the offseason. Yet, I didn't see it. I just asked if all these people saying it was obvious actually remember pointing it out. Or is it only obvious now that he isn't shooting well?

I.e. - your claim, that has been made several times, that he would be "more confident" against lesser opponents doesn't seem to jive with the fact that Alstork is shooting better in conference (11/40, 27.5%) than in the pre-conference part of the schedule (7/35, 20%).


But in the non-conference, he shot 2/12 (16.7%) against the teams that one could peg as better than Horizon competition: DePaul, Wake Forest, UNLV, NMSU, Mizzou, and Grand Canyon.

And let's be honest here.......he shot well in two conference games -- Maryland and Rutgers. That was it. 6 of those 11 three-pointers came in those two games.

Let's put it another way. Against Big Ten teams with at least a .500 record in conference.......he's 2/15 from three.

Bottom line is, he shoots poorly on the whole. But he shoots horrendously against good teams. There's a pretty good correlation between his 3pt% and the quality of his opponent.
 
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#188      

Gunner23

Panama City, Florida
The talent level was clearly there the first half of the Missouri game!!

There is a difference between talent level and playing well/really well in the Miznoz first half. We played great defense, rebounded well, and hit a bunch of shots in the first half. We were beaten handily in the second half with the same talent level that played in the first half.
 
#189      

Gunner23

Panama City, Florida
I just don’t buy that this is the least talented Illini team in Big Ten history. Go read the preseason prediction page.

For example, Kathy, who just summarized my criticism with “that’s bull” predicted a 24-9 season (11-7 Big Ten) and let us all know we could praise her at the end of the season.

I really hope that BUs change in style and system is just too much to combine with freshmen, roster turn, and mediocre talent. If that’s the case, we can hope for a record that is better than our talent next year. I firmly believe our bottom-feeder record is below our mediocre talent this year.

I feel bad that you put so much weight on some random unknown message board poster's preseason predictions and that that belief has you so stressed out. The experts predicting our season positioning were very accurate because of our lack of talent on our roster, not to mention the youth, along with a coaching change. You probably should have paid more attention to the experts that get paid to do this for a living and put less weight on Kathy's (and other "homer" poster's predictions). This season was going to be a struggle from the start, with the NIT being the absolute pinnacle. The NIT is out of the question now. What about the CBI?
 
#190      

Gunner23

Panama City, Florida
I think BU is a good coach but the above point has been greatly exaggerated. There are many coaches who had succeeded at mid-major or low-major (e.g., SFA) but failed at the HM level. There are many good coaches out there, in every conference. Success will depend on whether BU will be able to get the talent at UI. To succeed at UI, a coach has to prove a great recruiter, and the same is true for Underwood.

Agreed. BU and staff absolutely has to upgrade talent level to a B1G level roster through recruiting. Hopefully, they can get it done.
 
#191      
Aggressiveness has not been a problem, skills have. Illinois is among one of the leaders in the nation in "opponent turnovers per game, the only other HM with similar stats is West Virginia. That is the result of aggressiveness, the definition of aggressiveness.

If you are asking for players being able to create and beat their opponents on offense, this is ability, skills, and overall talent. Unless overall talent improves, that will not consistently change.



Maybe offensive aggressiveness isn’t the right word combo. How about taking wide open shots. We don’t even look to shoot the ball and the hitch makes it obvious. I bet we pass up 10-12 shots a game that when you watch the replay you would scream “shoot the *%*^ ball!” Also I see it time and time again when we have an angle or a step on our man and we don’t take it to the paint. I’m just asking us to do take what the defense gives us. If I knew how to make clips I could put together a low light reel of these exact plays almost every game.
 
#192      
Top-100 means little, Trevon Duval is a top-100 guard and so is Mark Smith. But as far as averages and performance throughout the entire season (not peaks and valleys) for a #90 ranked player, Mark Smith current performance fits those ranking expectations, especially in the presence of a guard teammate (during those valleys) who has seriously emerged as the major go-to guy independent of class on this team.

As far as the freshmen, the only true aberration from expectations according to rankings (not personal expectations based on other factors) is Trent Frazier who is seriously overplaying his ranking under Brad Underwood. Arguably the most talented freshman (as far as actual performance) we have had since the Dee/Deron era. The other freshmen are performing about where one should have expected based on their rankings.

Now as far as my opinion, BU's overall coaching performance (as I have said) has definitely not been anything to brag about, definitely not up to par this year. Yet, the major overall problem has not been Mark Smith, the overall talent is just not there, neither has it been since Dee/Augie left town (with the lone exception of 2010-11).

On Mark Smith, my personal opinion (and I had watched him in HS) is that his strength and poise are his biggest assets, and should improve, especially if he becomes a better passer (which he can), learn to use his strength more effectively (i.e., overpower guards closer to the basket), and learn to control tempo. But his biggest deficiency, specifically lack of lateral quickness, may limit his overall effectiveness. That deficiency will not be solved under any coach IMO, it is what it is, and is a limiting factor. That is actually why he often picks a few fouls by "reaching in", his latter quickness does not allow him to stay in front of driving guards on defense. On offense, his lack of lateral quickness limits him in shaking off defenders by going East-West.
+1
 
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#193      
B1G opponents now through 13 games are shooting from 2 pt range an incredible 60%. Just hard to comprehend.
 
#195      

illini80

Forgottonia
B1G opponents now through 13 games are shooting from 2 pt range an incredible 60%. Just hard to comprehend.
We have given up more dunks and layups than any team I have seen. While we may not be able to make those, most teams can.;)
 
#196      

Peoria Illini

Peoria, IL
B1G opponents now through 13 games are shooting from 2 pt range an incredible 60%. Just hard to comprehend.

It's because of what Underwood says. if you move the ball around, a defensive lapse will happen. 4 guys can play great defense for 30 seconds, but if one guy lapses for an instant, an easy basket/open shot can be found.

That's what usually has been killing us. Kipper, Smith, Williams, Finke seem to lapse a bit.