That would allow everyone to have it figured out before Selection Sunday....Thats part of the excitement... the experience...watching teams gathered in front of TV and waiting anxiously to see what their seed will be and where they will be playing....and of course those that don't make the tourney complain about how they were unjustly left out....helps market the product...builds anticipation, looking ahead for possible match ups...both teams and players (Kofi vs Tshiebwe... Ivey vs Banchero) Keeping as much of this under vest so to speak hypes the product
Polls & Bracketology - Illinois #12 in AP Poll
- Status
There is a ton of basketball left on the schedule. Every game left is a quad 1 win for us except PSU. And then you have to count in the B1G tournament. If we finish strong we will be right in the thick of it.
We really need to root for the B1G to go easy on us, and the SEC and B12 to beat each other up.
For the same reason you don't want to see how sausage and legislation are made.
Michigan is currently 7-6 in conference play. Any team that finishes BIG Ten play over 500 will make the tournament. It isn't a stretch at all to call them a bubble team.
turnaround3
- 1st & Daniel
Getting into the Chicago regional is all about finishing as the B1G team with the best tournament resume, which due to current rankings coupled with our pair of Purdue losses likely requires two of these three to occur:
1) Winning the regular season B1G outright
2) Winning a share of the regular season B1G, splitting it with a team other than Purdue
3) Reaching the BTT final, playing a team other than Purdue in it
The committee does everything it can to cater geographically to the top 2-3 seeds in each region (some years, even top 4 depending on program) but there are circumstances also that can work at a disadvantage in some ways. Due to this, there's a path to the Chicago region that doesn't involve finishing the B1G season with the #1 B1G resume, but then you're relying much more on happenstance at that point.
Let's use the current AP rankings as de-facto seeding:
#1 overall Gonzaga goes to CA as the CA #1
#2 overall Auburn, geographical oddity, is 750-900 miles away from all 3 other regional sites, but closest to Chicago so for discussion sake, they go to IL as IL #1
#3 overall Arizona goes to TX as the TX #1
#4 overall Kentucky, who might in theory prefer to be the #2 seed in TX, instead winds up as the #1 in PA
#5 overall Purdue now has first crack at region of choice from the #2 seeds, and so they're going to Chicago as the IL #2. Auburn fans will be wildly outnumbered at that #1 vs #2 game if it happens. Is that fair to Auburn? Not necessarily, but the committee doesn't care - they just want a packed arena.
If you need some evidence of how little the committee actually cares about geographic disadvantage for a given #1 seed, you need look no further than the last fully-fan attended tournament we had, in 2019.
Midwest region #1 - UNC, just over a thousand miles from Midwest region host city Kansas City
Midwest region #4 - Kansas, just over ::checks notes:: 40 miles from Midwest region host city Kansas City
So not even a regional final - UNC would've had to deal with that road atmosphere, as a #1 seed, in the Elite Eight! (If KU hadn't been bounced by Auburn in the Sweet 16, which is what ended up happening).
Long story short, the committee is extremely likely to put the team with the best tournament resume from the B1G in the Chicago regional, as a #1 (Purdue can still get this) or a #2/#3 (more realistic for us, UW, maybe MSU) and if it's not us, we're almost certain to be seeded high enough where they can't put us in that same Chicago region with aforementioned B1G team. There's a path there if Purdue slips a bit, ends up as the overall #7 or #8 causing them to wind up a #2 in CA or PA or TX and then we end up as the #3 or #4 in Chicago, but it's much tougher. Ideally, just handle business in the B1G and we have an excellent chance to play in Chicago to reach the Final Four. Which has some, you know, precedent.
1) Winning the regular season B1G outright
2) Winning a share of the regular season B1G, splitting it with a team other than Purdue
3) Reaching the BTT final, playing a team other than Purdue in it
The committee does everything it can to cater geographically to the top 2-3 seeds in each region (some years, even top 4 depending on program) but there are circumstances also that can work at a disadvantage in some ways. Due to this, there's a path to the Chicago region that doesn't involve finishing the B1G season with the #1 B1G resume, but then you're relying much more on happenstance at that point.
Let's use the current AP rankings as de-facto seeding:
#1 overall Gonzaga goes to CA as the CA #1
#2 overall Auburn, geographical oddity, is 750-900 miles away from all 3 other regional sites, but closest to Chicago so for discussion sake, they go to IL as IL #1
#3 overall Arizona goes to TX as the TX #1
#4 overall Kentucky, who might in theory prefer to be the #2 seed in TX, instead winds up as the #1 in PA
#5 overall Purdue now has first crack at region of choice from the #2 seeds, and so they're going to Chicago as the IL #2. Auburn fans will be wildly outnumbered at that #1 vs #2 game if it happens. Is that fair to Auburn? Not necessarily, but the committee doesn't care - they just want a packed arena.
If you need some evidence of how little the committee actually cares about geographic disadvantage for a given #1 seed, you need look no further than the last fully-fan attended tournament we had, in 2019.
Midwest region #1 - UNC, just over a thousand miles from Midwest region host city Kansas City
Midwest region #4 - Kansas, just over ::checks notes:: 40 miles from Midwest region host city Kansas City
So not even a regional final - UNC would've had to deal with that road atmosphere, as a #1 seed, in the Elite Eight! (If KU hadn't been bounced by Auburn in the Sweet 16, which is what ended up happening).
Long story short, the committee is extremely likely to put the team with the best tournament resume from the B1G in the Chicago regional, as a #1 (Purdue can still get this) or a #2/#3 (more realistic for us, UW, maybe MSU) and if it's not us, we're almost certain to be seeded high enough where they can't put us in that same Chicago region with aforementioned B1G team. There's a path there if Purdue slips a bit, ends up as the overall #7 or #8 causing them to wind up a #2 in CA or PA or TX and then we end up as the #3 or #4 in Chicago, but it's much tougher. Ideally, just handle business in the B1G and we have an excellent chance to play in Chicago to reach the Final Four. Which has some, you know, precedent.
Kenpom is obviously not how the selection committee decides, but I think it's a decent way to see where teams stand in relation to each other. The gap between us and the #4 team in Kenpom (Baylor) is roughly 6.4. That's slightly more than the difference between us and the #40 team (Boise St.). Of course there's a lot of basketball, but us catching those top 4 teams is unlikely. Like @sacraig said, it would take us doing everything right, plus an epic collapse from one of those top 4, plus all the teams in between not doing as well as us. The good news is that a 2 or 3 seed (and hopefully a conference championship as the cherry on top) is still something to be happy about!
sacraig
- The desert
And yet Purdue can say the same thing, plus holds two wins over us, one of which is especially convincing. Arizona also has a win over us on our home court. It's unlikely Gonzaga loses again. It's just very unlikely that we get a 1. We need some others to stumble to make it happen, IMO. Just winning out will not do it.
If we can finish strong, we should be a 2 or 3 seed, and that would suit me just fine. I hate the 4/5 seed line, it is upset prone in the past.
According to this chart it appears we have a 97.2% chance to finish in the top four.
That could likely be a 97.2% chance to finish in a three-way tie for second place.
I think I would take that.
And a 2.3% chance of finishing in 5th.
Again, not so bad. I think I'm going to relax and enjoy the rest of the ride.
For the gamblers among us (not me), the 12-5 is nearly always an upset.
sacraig
- The desert
"Nearly always" is a stretch, but it's definitely the most common upset.
The 12 seed is 51-93, so the 12 wins around 35% of the time.
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
Agreed I think low 2 high 3 should be what we hope for. Looking at bracketmatrix I can conceivably see UI jumping Providence, Wisc, Tech, and Nova. I could actually see an argument that UI is above some of them now. UK, Purdue, and Baylor would be harder to catch but Duke as that final 2 seed should be attainable. Either way you know the committee is going to make a 1v4 or 2v3 UI/UK match up....
sacraig
- The desert
I don't buy the "the committee is going to make..." arguments, in part because I don't believe we are remotely important enough for the committee members to know about the various narratives our fans care about.
There was a stretch of several years where the 12-5 matchup led to upsets approaching 40-50 percent, and it suddenly seemed to be a phenomenon everyone talked about. But taking all the tourney years, it is not the case.
and the top #1 seed potentially plays the bottom #4 seed. I saw a recent prediction of Gonzaga (a #1) potentially matched up with IL (a #4) in the West. That might be the only # 4 seed I could potentially like for IL.
That has historically been the case as I recall with putting top Big Ten teams in different regionals. But I don't think they fine tune it like that with a 1 of the Big Ten potentially meeting only an 8 of the Big Ten in the elite eight. I don't think the committee has a ton of hard and fast rules to handcuff them. For example, there have been cases where a team with less than a .500 record in a conference that did not win their conference tourney has actually gotten a bid. Not often, but sometimes.
Illini_1979
- Oregon
Speaking selfishly, I would love to see our guys at the Portland, OR site. I could almost walk to the game!
InDaAZ
- Eugene, Oregon
No worries - I could pick you up on my way!
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
A disturbingly large subset of our fanbase, no matter where we end up in the bracket on Selection Sunday.
Hmmm; I thought it was closer to 50% or greater than that. Seemed like it to me.
But thanks for the research. I don't keep the records, it was just an off-hand observation.
If the 12 beats the 5 it an upset 100% of the time.
sacraig
- The desert
Ah, the pinnacle of statistical analysis (and, thus, good betting advice).
How many different potential tournament teams could Illinois say they have personal history or a media angle with?
- Any B1G team - conference rematches
- Auburn - Bruce Pearl
- Arizona - 2005, rematch from earlier in year
- Kansas - Bill Self
- Kentucky - Kofi/Oscar matchup
- Houston - Kelvin Sampson
- Marquette - rematch
- Loyola - rematch from last year
- K-State - Weber, rematch
- Oklahoma - Porter Moser
- Ok State - Brad Underwood
- Duke - The two most important basketball programs in history
Any matchup Illinois gets, someone is going to claim rigged by committee/media because of some angle.
- Status