Polls & Bracketology - Illinois #12 in AP Poll

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#151      
By the way, here is how our Tournament resume looks heading into tonight's huge matchup with Rutgers at the Trapezoid of Terror:

Record: 18-6
NET Rank: #13
SOS Rank: #8
Q1 Wins: 5 (at #19 IOWA, vs. #21 WISC, vs. #27 MSU, at #45 IND, at #66 NU)
Q2 Wins: 5 (vs. #36 MICH, vs. #55 ND, vs. #61 KSU in KC, vs. #66 NU, at #103 MINN)
Q3 Losses: 0
Q4 Losses: 0

Some Things We Should Root For:
- Unless it interferes with a double bye in the BTT or winning the Big Ten ... we want RU to win enough to get into the top 75. It would both turn our home win vs. them into another Q2 win AND make any potential victory tonight into a Q1 win!
- Again, unless it interferes with our Big Ten goals, it would be great for Michigan to sneak into the top 30 somehow ... no matter how much it might make you puke, it would give us another Q1 win vs. them at home already!
- NU to stay in the top 75, as that road win in Evanston is deceptively huge for our resume.
- KSU to do well ... if they moved into the top 50 somehow, it would turn into a Q1 win since it was at a neutral site in Kansas City.

Remaining Opportunities:
at #81 Rutgers (Quad 2)
at #27 Michigan State (Quad 1)
vs. #17 Ohio State (Quad 1)
at #36 Michigan (Quad 1)
vs. #86 Penn State (Quad 3 ... only TERRIBLE loss left on the schedule)
vs. #19 Iowa (Quad 1)

Assuming a PSU loss is avoided, I think a 4-2 finish keeps us firmly in the 3-seed camp, and a 5-2 finish likely gets us firmly in the 2-seed camp, depending on who the wins are against. Exciting stretch coming up!
Am I crazy to feel less uncomfortable about the @MSU game compared to the @RU game?
 
#152      
Am I crazy to feel less uncomfortable about the @MSU game compared to the @RU game?
thats how I feel. MSU is tough but now quite like this @RU game. @MSU could get interesting due to their loss last night @PSU.
 
#153      
Am I crazy to feel less uncomfortable about the @MSU game compared to the @RU game?
I was thinking that all of these games EXCEPT MSU look a little more challenging than they did just a couple weeks ago.
But I still have a hard time believing that we will lose to a team we already beat by 35 points, regardless of who either team did or did not have available in the first matchup.

Edit: just realized you said "less uncomfortable". No, you're not crazy.
 
#154      
Am I crazy to feel less uncomfortable about the @MSU game compared to the @RU game?
I am more concerned about Rutgers. I thought Rutgers might even be favored today, and I was way off on that.

But Rutgers is playing really well, Geo is back, and they are a completely different team at home. We lost to them last year at the RAC even with Ayo. Hawkins also had probably his best game of the year in the first encounter; it remains to be seen if he'll duplicate that today. If Kofi doesn't get into foul trouble and we hit a reasonable number of threes, I do think we'll win.

But comparing MSU to Rutgers starters, heck, I'd take the Rutgers player at the majority of positions.
 
#155      
I am more concerned about Rutgers. I thought Rutgers might even be favored today, and I was way off on that.

But Rutgers is playing really well, Geo is back, and they are a completely different team at home. We lost to them last year at the RAC even with Ayo. Hawkins also had probably his best game of the year in the first encounter; it remains to be seen if he'll duplicate that today. If Kofi doesn't get into foul trouble and we hit a reasonable number of threes, I do think we'll win.

But comparing MSU to Rutgers starters, heck, I'd take the Rutgers player at the majority of positions.
Completely agree. MSU has a really tough remaining schedule. I could definitely see them losing out until the Maryland game. I have not been sold on them at all this year. They simply are not a top 25 team in the country.
 
#157      
Agree with this 100%. To play devil’s advocate though, I think the consternation comes more from long scoring droughts where we just can’t seem to be able to put some teams away that we should be able to. And I think that as a fan, that makes you feel like we’re vulnerable to losing to just about anyone if they’re having a good night at the same time we’re having a bad night, which seems to happen a lot come tourney time. But honestly, I think the fact that we still come away with wins is a testament to our defense, because our defense gets stops when they’re needed. The overall W-L record speaks for itself. An ugly win is still a win, and while we’re not perfect, if we can get stops when we need them, we should have hope that we can do some real damage come March (and hopefully April :) ).
Saw this article and felt that it said what I wanted to say a bit better…

 
#158      
Saw this article and felt that it said what I wanted to say a bit better…

Yep, while I never thought this team would be "better" overall than last year's I did think that we might be able to avoid a Loyola-type loss more easily. In other words, whereas last year's team was good enough to cut down the nets but could have an Achilles' Heel game like Loyola where Ayo is shut down and Kofi is well guarded, I thought this year's improved shooting would make us harder to shut out offensively. Unfortunately, there seems to be a stretch during most games where we stall. We have to figure that out if we are going to go on a run ... and I really hope we do, because if we get hot at the right time and play at the level we have vs. Arizona, vs. Purdue, at Indiana, etc., we honestly can go a long way in March. (Yes, I know two of those were losses, but we still played extremely well.)
 
#160      
The selection committee is putting out the 1,2,3,4 seeds on CBS tomorrow at 11:30. The article on cbssports said they had 20 teams for the 16 spots. ( I couldn’t post the article from my phone.)
 
#163      
Early NCAA seeds:
WestMidwestSouthEast
No. 1Gonzaga (1)Auburn (2)Arizona (3)Kansas (4)
No. 2Duke (8)Purdue (7)Baylor (5)Kentucky (6)
No. 3Illinois (12)Texas Tech (10)Tennessee (11)Villanova (9)
No. 4Texas (16)UCLA (14)Providence (15)Wisconsin (13)

So based on this, here's where the early round games would be for each team (I think?):
-Gonzaga: Portland
-Auburn: Greenville
-Arizona: San Diego
-Kansas: Fort Worth
-Baylor: Fort Worth
-Kentucky: Indianapolis
-Purdue: Indianapolis
-Duke: Greenville
-Villanova: Pittsburgh
-Texas Tech: San Diego
-Tennessee: Buffalo
-Illinois: Milwaukee
-Wisconsin: Milwaukee
-UCLA: Portland
-Providence: Buffalo
-Texas: Pittsburgh
 
#165      
Auburn loses to Florida but probably won’t drop them much.
 
#166      
Currently rate Illinois as the last 3 seed. And picked up a quality win on the road over MSU today. Not sure there's a lot of room to move up with the toughest remaining game being tOSU at home, but with the BTT, could see us getting a 2 seed, or at least a better 3.

The bubble years seem a distant memory, and I'm ok with that :LOL:
 
#170      

College basketball winners and losers: Auburn hurts No. 1 seed chances, bubble teams stumble​


A look at the winners and losers from Saturday's action:

Illinois. The Fighting Illini (19-7, 12-4 Big Ten) got 27 points from All-American big man Kofi Cockburn to help fuel a 79-74 win on the road vs. Michigan State, its second victory over the Spartans this year. The selection committee seeded Illinois at No. 3 in the top 16 reveal and this Quadrant 1 win will only build the seeding case further.
 
#171      
Flying Illini - Nick Anderson and Kendall Gill had long NBA careers
2005 - Deron Williams had medium but brilliant career

The Flying Illini had the most talent. Liberty was consensus #1 HS player in country but only had 1 really good season for us.
Williams played 12 NBA seasons - Same as Anderson, but 2 years fewer than Gill
 
#172      
Super helpful, thanks for posting! In such a scenario, does the consideration of region stop after the 1-seeds? In other words, can 2-, 3- and 4-seeds wind up in any old region, or would they try to match #1 (1-seed) with #8 (2), #2 (1-seed) with #7 (2-seed), etc.?

We are the second 3-seed in that list, and theoretically would get the region with Arizona if such a system were used to a T. So, we'd theoretically want to get in with Auburn's group to have a path through Chicago. This all might be pointless, and maybe they just put the non-1 seeds in regions with other considerations as top of mind (e.g., separating Purdue and Illinois or something).

Either way, as far as not "punishing" a 1-seed, I think we have a decent shot at the Chicago Region if we can stay above the 4-seed line, where we would theoretically face a 1-seed in the Sweet Sixteen. I don't see why they would have a problem with putting a 2-seed or 3-seed Illinois in Chicago, as we wouldn't see the 1-seed until the Elite Eight anyway, and at that point it is what it is.
Problem here is if Purdue is the 2 or 3 seed above Illinois. It used to be you could not play a “fellow” league school until the final 4. Obviously, with the size of the various leagues now that can’t be guaranteed. I believe you can play a fellow league school in the elite 8. But! They would never put the 2 top schools (seeds) from one conference in the same region on a collision path for the elite 8.

So what I am saying is that if Purdue gets the Chicago region, we will not get it. A school like Iowa or Indiana would be put there but not Illinois as let’s say a 3 with a potential match up with Purdue as a 2.

We need to root for Purdue to fall hard, like loose 2 more regular season games. Which could happen they have Rutgers today at home, but still have to go to both MSU and Wisconsin.
 
#174      
Here's one potential outcome. Purdue still has to play Rutgers today and then road games at Wisc and MSU. All 3 are potential losses.

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#175      
Rather not see rutgers in our region

Yeah, sure feels that way after the beatdown, but if the guys fear Rutgers, they're in trouble. Just need to play better. I'd like to think they use it as a wake up call. Rebounds:

IL 28
Rut 46

That tells me it's more about having a down game and not bringing the fight. Honestly, I'm impressed with how many wins we've gotten without bringing our A game. Seems like there's enough weapons in the arsenal to give this team a high floor. Not sure what the ceiling is. Other than Kofi, seems to be win by committee. Trent, Jake, Plummer, DMW, RJ have all had great games that translated to putting us over the top.
 
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