I think that is spot on... several years of Battered Fan Syndrome have left me with no confidence in this team, especially with Groce's 2-9 record versus Beilein.
Michigan will rain three pointers on us and abuse Morgan/Black in pick-and-roll situations. Abrams and Black will combine to shoot 1 for 10 on three point attempts, several of which will occur with less than 5 seconds on the shot clock. Finke will be burned on at least one backdoor cut to the basket. JCL will shoot a decent 2 for 5 on 3's but won't get many open looks at the basket. Refs will treat Tejon like a freshman and keep him in foul trouble the majority of the game with ticky-tack calls. The rims seem tight and Morgan will go ice cold on mid-range jumpers. Malcolm will have a respectable game but it won't be enough to carry the team.
Hope I'm wrong, but expecting the worst.