We broke Nebraska last year
Pregame: Illinois at Indiana, Saturday, September 20th, 6:30pm CT, NBC
- Status
mhuml32
Gesture of Northern Aggression
This is a lazy and inaccurate take for a couple reasons.
(1) The Kansas OC from 2023 is the Penn State OC from 2024. You can't say Illinois struggles against 2023 Kansas offensive scheme while also saying 2024 Penn State offensive scheme is easier for Illinois to face. They are the same scheme with different players.
(2) Nebraska threw the ball a lot more than Indiana last year. I'm sure the knee-jerk reaction here will be to look at Indiana's passing yards, which are more, but we aren't arguing offensive success. You are arguing offensive scheme.
Indiana's offense is explosive! But that doesn't imply that they are one of the teams with the most spread offenses in the country or that they stretch out defenses in a way that other schemes cannot. Too many folks assume spread = points.
Illinois 31
Indiana 17
This is my least favorite thread of all time. This is at Top 25 Indiana not at #1 OSU. Indiana’s mirage of a program gets exposed the next three weeks. Bielema’s statue starts to get planned after this week. Some Illini posters have to turn in their Illini cards after their comments on this thread and the results on Saturday night. After Saturday night it is confirmed, Illinois is one of the top programs in the country. Posting it here for all to see. Keep the receipts!
Indiana 17
This is my least favorite thread of all time. This is at Top 25 Indiana not at #1 OSU. Indiana’s mirage of a program gets exposed the next three weeks. Bielema’s statue starts to get planned after this week. Some Illini posters have to turn in their Illini cards after their comments on this thread and the results on Saturday night. After Saturday night it is confirmed, Illinois is one of the top programs in the country. Posting it here for all to see. Keep the receipts!
Folks, you’re now just being trolled
Kansas 2023? Luke’s second game and first road game Two interceptions.
Btw, look closer at the Neb at Ind game last year.
True freshman qb making second road start. Three interceptions and a lost fumble
Explosive offense? SP+ has Ind at #18; Illinois, slow starts and all, at #23.
Battle tested? Old Dominion Def #97
Illinois Def #20
Kansas 2023? Luke’s second game and first road game Two interceptions.
Btw, look closer at the Neb at Ind game last year.
True freshman qb making second road start. Three interceptions and a lost fumble
Explosive offense? SP+ has Ind at #18; Illinois, slow starts and all, at #23.
Battle tested? Old Dominion Def #97
Illinois Def #20
Are we Illini fans too pessimistic? Maybe. We seem to be focused on our weaknesses, discounting our strengths. But the pessimism paradox tells us that pessimistic people, at least if they’re not fatalists, are constantly attending to the things that are going wrong. I think that’s what Bielema and his staff are doing--adjusting, trimming their sails, finding solutions to problems as they encounter them. The Illini staff are hiding the team's strengths, and they will be prepared to win Saturday night.
pruman91
- interviewing new NL's daily....I really really am
thx......could be the Scott news driven , maybe.................
^^^ #5
I don’t know what’s going to happen on the field tomorrow, but I think right now we might be losing the “Don’t pay attention to the insufferable, opposing team trolls infiltrating your fan board with erroneous stats and overconfident predictions” battle!
We have played a very vanilla defense with very little blitzing or pressure on the opposition QB. We have no idea what Henry will dial up. With Dylan back, it might free up Gabe to move all over the line to create pressure. They have seen a defense like this so far this year. My belief is that we win the toss, defer, and get to go three and out on the first possession. Smack them right in the mouth.
Yeah, I think this is correct. If we score 30+ in this game, I think we win 9 times out of ten. But that's a pretty big if. Indiana only gave up 30+ points one time in 2024. Heck, they only gave up 20+ points 4 times.
I was trying to figure out what it was about last year's Indiana team that allowed them to blow out so many opponents. There are two things they did exceptionally well. First is just prevent opponents from moving the ball. They had allowed the 2nd lowest yards per play in college football, behind only OSU.
The second was 3rd down conversion rate on both sides of the ball. They had the #13 conversion rate on offense at 47.22%. We were #15 at 46.45%, so very comparable rates on offense. But defense is another story. Indiana was #15 in that category, only allowing opponents to convert on 32.74% of third downs, while we were #114 in the nation allowing opponents to convert 44.94% of their first downs.
I think these third down conversions will be key. We saw a lot of drives stall out quickly in the first half against Western Michigan. We saw some of the same against Duke. We got away with it because we also prevented those teams from converting drives into points. I don't know if we can rely on that against Indiana. We have to keep moving the ball, converting third downs, wearing down the defense, turning drives into points. When they punch in a score, we need to counterpunch. We can't fall behind by multiple scores. I think that can lead to the spiral where where we have to throw the ball more, which can mean bigger plays but can also mean third-and-long scenarios, quick ends to drives, and opportunities for Indiana to extend the lead. If we stick with them the whole game, I like our chances of outlasting them. If we extend drives and give our defense time breathe, I think we get better results on that end as well.
Since we're doing predictions, I'm going to zig where everyone else is zagging. I don't think we get to 30+ points. I don't think this game ends up being about which QB is better. I think Indiana's defense comes out to play impacts our offensive efficiency, but I think our defense matches. I think getting into the endzone becomes a struggle and the kickers get a lot of action. Crucially, I think we extend drives so that even if we're not getting into the end zone, we're not coming away empty handed either. Ultimately, I think this game looks a lot more like the Michigan-Indiana game last year, but with a different result.
Illinois - 26
Indiana - 16
Can someone please tell me how our coin tossing has compared to Indiana's?
Can't make heads or tails of it.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Lol, I have literally never seen you post one positive thing on this site - a recollection I conveniently cannot verify for others since you make your previous posts hidden.
Games are more than one quarter. ODU also led for almost the entirety of the first quarter, and it was a 3-point game until Indiana scored seconds before halftime. Considering ODU is a Sun Belt team, held the Indiana offense about which you salivate to 27 points and lost by 13 as a 23.5-point underdog ... yeah, I feel perfectly intellectually honest saying they "hung around." And your critique only holds any merit if you think ODU is a better team than Illinois (which you probably do, lmao...), and I certainly do not. If ODU can be in the game at Indiana for even a half, I think claims that #9 Illinois stands no chance are pretty unfounded.
Let's assume you are right, and that comparing our five mutual opponents from last year is this ironclad reason for favoring one team over the other THIS year. I have several issues with that.
1) Why did this attitude only become more prevalent THIS week? Last year's results have not changed.
2) What does this have to do with Bret's better accomplishments and more proven record over the long term vs. Cig?
3) Can we be intellectually honest that the transitive property is obviously a garbage thing to use in sports? Lol. Teams perform differently from week to week, and we all know that. Just looking at some of the common opponents...
---> 3A) Nebraska: Illinois beat Nebraska on the road in a primetime atmosphere while they were 3-0 and riding high. Indiana beat them at home after their loss to Illinois and a slump game vs. Rutgers. That same Nebraska team regrouped after losing to Indiana and lost at (eventual National Champion) Ohio State by just 4 points, whereas Indiana lost 15-38 at OSU. That right there proves that this exercise is incredibly stupid, but there is LITERALLY no denying that (A) Nebraska played one of its worst games at IU and (B) Indiana played one of its better games vs. Nebraska. The OSU comparison alone proves that.
---> 3B) Purdue: I would argue Illinois got Purdue's best performance of the year, especially given the bad blood with Walters; they pretty much laid down vs. everybody else, and your line of logic you are clinging to HAS to have you concluding that Nebraska (who we beat) and 5-7 Wisconsin were both better than Illinois last year, too, based on comparable results vs. Purdue. Do you think that? Illinois was also up 27-3 in the third quarter and 40-28 with 5 minutes to go in the fourth ... very odd and (I would argue) fluky game. Indiana got an 0-11 Purdue team at home who had a dead man walking for a head coach. However, I'll give it to you ... Indiana very clearly demolished Purdue, and we didn't...? I'm just not sure that is as relevant as you do.
---> 3C) Michigan: Comparable results overall vs. what turned out to be a solid Michigan team that not only beat Alabama in a bowl game but also upset National Champion OSU in Columbus. Indiana had a decent lead early on (17-3), was only up 17-15 with 3:00 to go and ended up holding off Michigan's last drive to win 20-15. Illinois' largest lead was 13 points vs. 14 points for Indiana, but Illinois also led 21-7 for the final 9+ minutes of the third quarter and all of the fourth quarter ... in other words, we controlled the game from start to finish.
---> 3D) Michigan State: Indiana ended up winning by a larger margin, but both games were more similar than they first appear. Indiana was up 21-10 at half while Illinois was up 21-9 at half. Indiana then put MSU away, extending its lead to 37 points and not allowing MSU to score again. Illinois extended its final lead to 22 points, due to allowing an MSU TD in the third quarter. Indiana definitely deserves the credit for winning AT Michigan State while we got them at home, but winning 47-10 vs. 38-16 is semantics, IMO, if neither game was ever really in doubt.
---> 3E) Northwestern: Indiana won 41-24 at the makeshift stadium on the lake, and Illinois won 38-28 at Wrigley. Indiana ended up winning by more, but they were only up by 3 points with 7:00 to go in the fourth quarter. Illinois was up 18 points with 4:00 to go before Northwestern scored a meaningless TD. While both were "road games" in some sense, neither had more Northwestern fans than Illini/Indiana fans ... pretty much a wash.
4) So both teams beat a good Michigan team at home, with Illinois' win being more convincing. Both teams soundly beat MSU, with Indiana's win being even more comfortable than Illinois' and on the road. Both teams beat Northwestern by multiple scores at friendly neutral site environments, with both wins being equally comfortable in different ways. So this "common opponents" talking point rests entirely two data points - Indiana beat the crap out of Nebraska at home, while Illinois beat Nebraska in OT on the road; Indiana beat the crap out of Purdue at home, while Illinois gave up a huge lead and then survived vs. Purdue in OT at home. I just don't think that says nearly as much as you do. As pointed out above, Nebraska played OSU MUCH closer than Indiana did, so is Nebraska better than Indiana? Obviously not, as Indiana beat them. Is Northern Illinois better than Indiana since they performed much, much, much better at eventual national runner-up Notre Dame? I think that's obviously an absurd conclusion, lol. "Vs. common opponents" is really just something that is interesting and fun ... can't tell you all that much.
5) I'll make a not-so-bold claim that you are free to refute - Illinois' Citrus Bowl win vs. South Carolina was without a doubt more impressive than any win Indiana had last year, period, and it is not that close. South Carolina was a top 15 team that had just won 6 straight games, including 3 top 25 wins and an impressive upset on the road that knocked Clemson out of CFP contention ... and the only things between them and an 11-1 record were a 3-point loss at #16 LSU and a 2-point loss at #7 Alabama. I struggle to see anyone on Indiana's schedule last year that they beat who I even think would have a decent shot vs. South Carolina. The closest might be Michigan, and Illinois beat them, as well (and by more points).
Either way, there has not been ONE logical reason thrown out there why Illinois fans (and our visitors, troll and otherwise) should have adopted an attitude that this year's Indiana team is such an unstoppable force of elite athleticism and generational coaching that there is just simply no hope, lol.
I’m guilty of that.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I limited this to Power Conference opponents to try to get a better comparison.
Well said Nightman! I always appreciate your posts and the hard work you put into them.Lol, I have literally never seen you post one positive thing on this site - a recollection I conveniently cannot verify for others since you make your previous posts hidden.
Games are more than one quarter. ODU also led for almost the entirety of the first quarter, and it was a 3-point game until Indiana scored seconds before halftime. Considering ODU is a Sun Belt team, held the Indiana offense about which you salivate to 27 points and lost by 13 as a 23.5-point underdog ... yeah, I feel perfectly intellectually honest saying they "hung around." And your critique only holds any merit if you think ODU is a better team than Illinois (which you probably do, lmao...), and I certainly do not. If ODU can be in the game at Indiana for even a half, I think claims that #9 Illinois stands no chance are pretty unfounded.
Let's assume you are right, and that comparing our five mutual opponents from last year is this ironclad reason for favoring one team over the other THIS year. I have several issues with that.
1) Why did this attitude only become more prevalent THIS week? Last year's results have not changed.
2) What does this have to do with Bret's better accomplishments and more proven record over the long term vs. Cig?
3) Can we be intellectually honest that the transitive property is obviously a garbage thing to use in sports? Lol. Teams perform differently from week to week, and we all know that. Just looking at some of the common opponents...
---> 3A) Nebraska: Illinois beat Nebraska on the road in a primetime atmosphere while they were 3-0 and riding high. Indiana beat them at home after their loss to Illinois and a slump game vs. Rutgers. That same Nebraska team regrouped after losing to Indiana and lost at (eventual National Champion) Ohio State by just 4 points, whereas Indiana lost 15-38 at OSU. That right there proves that this exercise is incredibly stupid, but there is LITERALLY no denying that (A) Nebraska played one of its worst games at IU and (B) Indiana played one of its better games vs. Nebraska. The OSU comparison alone proves that.
---> 3B) Purdue: I would argue Illinois got Purdue's best performance of the year, especially given the bad blood with Walters; they pretty much laid down vs. everybody else, and your line of logic you are clinging to HAS to have you concluding that Nebraska (who we beat) and 5-7 Wisconsin were both better than Illinois last year, too, based on comparable results vs. Purdue. Do you think that? Illinois was also up 27-3 in the third quarter and 40-28 with 5 minutes to go in the fourth ... very odd and (I would argue) fluky game. Indiana got an 0-11 Purdue team at home who had a dead man walking for a head coach. However, I'll give it to you ... Indiana very clearly demolished Purdue, and we didn't...? I'm just not sure that is as relevant as you do.
---> 3C) Michigan: Comparable results overall vs. what turned out to be a solid Michigan team that not only beat Alabama in a bowl game but also upset National Champion OSU in Columbus. Indiana had a decent lead early on (17-3), was only up 17-15 with 3:00 to go and ended up holding off Michigan's last drive to win 20-15. Illinois' largest lead was 13 points vs. 14 points for Indiana, but Illinois also led 21-7 for the final 9+ minutes of the third quarter and all of the fourth quarter ... in other words, we controlled the game from start to finish.
---> 3D) Michigan State: Indiana ended up winning by a larger margin, but both games were more similar than they first appear. Indiana was up 21-10 at half while Illinois was up 21-9 at half. Indiana then put MSU away, extending its lead to 37 points and not allowing MSU to score again. Illinois extended its final lead to 22 points, due to allowing an MSU TD in the third quarter. Indiana definitely deserves the credit for winning AT Michigan State while we got them at home, but winning 47-10 vs. 38-16 is semantics, IMO, if neither game was ever really in doubt.
---> 3E) Northwestern: Indiana won 41-24 at the makeshift stadium on the lake, and Illinois won 38-28 at Wrigley. Indiana ended up winning by more, but they were only up by 3 points with 7:00 to go in the fourth quarter. Illinois was up 18 points with 4:00 to go before Northwestern scored a meaningless TD. While both were "road games" in some sense, neither had more Northwestern fans than Illini/Indiana fans ... pretty much a wash.
4) So both teams beat a good Michigan team at home, with Illinois' win being more convincing. Both teams soundly beat MSU, with Indiana's win being even more comfortable than Illinois' and on the road. Both teams beat Northwestern by multiple scores at friendly neutral site environments, with both wins being equally comfortable in different ways. So this "common opponents" talking point rests entirely two data points - Indiana beat the crap out of Nebraska at home, while Illinois beat Nebraska in OT on the road; Indiana beat the crap out of Purdue at home, while Illinois gave up a huge lead and then survived vs. Purdue in OT at home. I just don't think that says nearly as much as you do. As pointed out above, Nebraska played OSU MUCH closer than Indiana did, so is Nebraska better than Indiana? Obviously not, as Indiana beat them. Is Northern Illinois better than Indiana since they performed much, much, much better at eventual national runner-up Notre Dame? I think that's obviously an absurd conclusion, lol. "Vs. common opponents" is really just something that is interesting and fun ... can't tell you all that much.
5) I'll make a not-so-bold claim that you are free to refute - Illinois' Citrus Bowl win vs. South Carolina was without a doubt more impressive than any win Indiana had last year, period, and it is not that close. South Carolina was a top 15 team that had just won 6 straight games, including 3 top 25 wins and an impressive upset on the road that knocked Clemson out of CFP contention ... and the only things between them and an 11-1 record were a 3-point loss at #16 LSU and a 2-point loss at #7 Alabama. I struggle to see anyone on Indiana's schedule last year that they beat who I even think would have a decent shot vs. South Carolina. The closest might be Michigan, and Illinois beat them, as well (and by more points).
Either way, there has not been ONE logical reason thrown out there why Illinois fans (and our visitors, troll and otherwise) should have adopted an attitude that this year's Indiana team is such an unstoppable force of elite athleticism and generational coaching that there is just simply no hope, lol.
That team was not on the same level as this team. Speaking of the Illini.
GallopingGhost
- Denver, CO
Jyde and Heckel
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Lol, I have literally never seen you post one positive thing on this site - a recollection I conveniently cannot verify for others since you make your previous posts hidden.
Games are more than one quarter. ODU also led for almost the entirety of the first quarter, and it was a 3-point game until Indiana scored seconds before halftime. Considering ODU is a Sun Belt team, held the Indiana offense about which you salivate to 27 points and lost by 13 as a 23.5-point underdog ... yeah, I feel perfectly intellectually honest saying they "hung around." And your critique only holds any merit if you think ODU is a better team than Illinois (which you probably do, lmao...), and I certainly do not. If ODU can be in the game at Indiana for even a half, I think claims that #9 Illinois stands no chance are pretty unfounded.
Let's assume you are right, and that comparing our five mutual opponents from last year is this ironclad reason for favoring one team over the other THIS year. I have several issues with that.
1) Why did this attitude only become more prevalent THIS week? Last year's results have not changed.
2) What does this have to do with Bret's better accomplishments and more proven record over the long term vs. Cig?
3) Can we be intellectually honest that the transitive property is obviously a garbage thing to use in sports? Lol. Teams perform differently from week to week, and we all know that. Just looking at some of the common opponents...
---> 3A) Nebraska: Illinois beat Nebraska on the road in a primetime atmosphere while they were 3-0 and riding high. Indiana beat them at home after their loss to Illinois and a slump game vs. Rutgers. That same Nebraska team regrouped after losing to Indiana and lost at (eventual National Champion) Ohio State by just 4 points, whereas Indiana lost 15-38 at OSU. That right there proves that this exercise is incredibly stupid, but there is LITERALLY no denying that (A) Nebraska played one of its worst games at IU and (B) Indiana played one of its better games vs. Nebraska. The OSU comparison alone proves that.
---> 3B) Purdue: I would argue Illinois got Purdue's best performance of the year, especially given the bad blood with Walters; they pretty much laid down vs. everybody else, and your line of logic you are clinging to HAS to have you concluding that Nebraska (who we beat) and 5-7 Wisconsin were both better than Illinois last year, too, based on comparable results vs. Purdue. Do you think that? Illinois was also up 27-3 in the third quarter and 40-28 with 5 minutes to go in the fourth ... very odd and (I would argue) fluky game. Indiana got an 0-11 Purdue team at home who had a dead man walking for a head coach. However, I'll give it to you ... Indiana very clearly demolished Purdue, and we didn't...? I'm just not sure that is as relevant as you do.
---> 3C) Michigan: Comparable results overall vs. what turned out to be a solid Michigan team that not only beat Alabama in a bowl game but also upset National Champion OSU in Columbus. Indiana had a decent lead early on (17-3), was only up 17-15 with 3:00 to go and ended up holding off Michigan's last drive to win 20-15. Illinois' largest lead was 13 points vs. 14 points for Indiana, but Illinois also led 21-7 for the final 9+ minutes of the third quarter and all of the fourth quarter ... in other words, we controlled the game from start to finish.
---> 3D) Michigan State: Indiana ended up winning by a larger margin, but both games were more similar than they first appear. Indiana was up 21-10 at half while Illinois was up 21-9 at half. Indiana then put MSU away, extending its lead to 37 points and not allowing MSU to score again. Illinois extended its final lead to 22 points, due to allowing an MSU TD in the third quarter. Indiana definitely deserves the credit for winning AT Michigan State while we got them at home, but winning 47-10 vs. 38-16 is semantics, IMO, if neither game was ever really in doubt.
---> 3E) Northwestern: Indiana won 41-24 at the makeshift stadium on the lake, and Illinois won 38-28 at Wrigley. Indiana ended up winning by more, but they were only up by 3 points with 7:00 to go in the fourth quarter. Illinois was up 18 points with 4:00 to go before Northwestern scored a meaningless TD. While both were "road games" in some sense, neither had more Northwestern fans than Illini/Indiana fans ... pretty much a wash.
4) So both teams beat a good Michigan team at home, with Illinois' win being more convincing. Both teams soundly beat MSU, with Indiana's win being even more comfortable than Illinois' and on the road. Both teams beat Northwestern by multiple scores at friendly neutral site environments, with both wins being equally comfortable in different ways. So this "common opponents" talking point rests entirely two data points - Indiana beat the crap out of Nebraska at home, while Illinois beat Nebraska in OT on the road; Indiana beat the crap out of Purdue at home, while Illinois gave up a huge lead and then survived vs. Purdue in OT at home. I just don't think that says nearly as much as you do. As pointed out above, Nebraska played OSU MUCH closer than Indiana did, so is Nebraska better than Indiana? Obviously not, as Indiana beat them. Is Northern Illinois better than Indiana since they performed much, much, much better at eventual national runner-up Notre Dame? I think that's obviously an absurd conclusion, lol. "Vs. common opponents" is really just something that is interesting and fun ... can't tell you all that much.
5) I'll make a not-so-bold claim that you are free to refute - Illinois' Citrus Bowl win vs. South Carolina was without a doubt more impressive than any win Indiana had last year, period, and it is not that close. South Carolina was a top 15 team that had just won 6 straight games, including 3 top 25 wins and an impressive upset on the road that knocked Clemson out of CFP contention ... and the only things between them and an 11-1 record were a 3-point loss at #16 LSU and a 2-point loss at #7 Alabama. I struggle to see anyone on Indiana's schedule last year that they beat who I even think would have a decent shot vs. South Carolina. The closest might be Michigan, and Illinois beat them, as well (and by more points).
Either way, there has not been ONE logical reason thrown out there why Illinois fans (and our visitors, troll and otherwise) should have adopted an attitude that this year's Indiana team is such an unstoppable force of elite athleticism and generational coaching that there is just simply no hope, lol.
Not exactly, but what I *did* spy is Xavier Scott carrying a handful of equipment bags. I might be wrong but I don’t think a guy with a lasting injury is going to be carrying all of his stuff to a game.
So, he’s either *done-done* and they don’t care anymore for this year, or he’s probably ok enough to play.
I’m no doctor, but I’m getting my hopes up again.
So, he’s either *done-done* and they don’t care anymore for this year, or he’s probably ok enough to play.
I’m no doctor, but I’m getting my hopes up again.
foby
- Bonnaroo Land
Is that actually Xavier Scott?
- Status