Pregame: Illinois at Iowa, Saturday, November 18th, 2:30pm CT, FS1

Status
Not open for further replies.
#251      

Illinir1

Illinir1
Camdenton, MO
Illinir1
Being a stats nerd, here's everything you wanted to know about our matchup with Iowa. Starting with the positive...

Iowa offense avg. 243 yds/game against Illini defense avg. 388 yds/game = Iowa expected 315 yds offense
Illini offense avg. 396 yds/game against Iowa defense avg. 280 yds/game = Illini expected 336 yds offense

Common B1G opponent: Penn St. Iowa loss 31 - 0 with 76 yds offense Illini loss 30 -13 with 354 yds offense (5 turnovers)

Then the rest, which are keys to staying in the game...

QB sacks against: Iowa 19 Illini 37 (improved Illini offensive line play needs to limit sacks)
Net turnover margin: Iowa -3 Illini -6
Penalties: Iowa 3.1 per game for 27 yds/game Illini 7.2 per game for 69 yds/game (this would be giving IA free 40 yds which would equate to 3 pts)
Side note: Iowa's last game 0 penalties for 0 yards. REALLY?!!! Hope we don't get that crew (but we'll probably get the Indiana game crew)
Common B1G opponents: Penn St, Purdue, Wisc., Minn. Iowa 2 - 2 with 45 pts. for vs. 63 pts. against Illini 1 - 3 with 90 pts. for vs. 125 pts. against

"Tough, Smart, Dependable Football". Need to emphasize the last two elements this week to win (we haven't done so well with those, especially on defense).
 
#252      

pruman91

pruman91
Paducah, Ky
pruman91
Count me as very disappointed with this decision...........But , I will get over it and cheer for Luke as I have all season long.......

I just think the Illini offense has performed so much better with JP at the helm , and if Luke hesitates in the pocket against this stout squawkeye D and gets knocked out on a violent sack , how will that affect him long term going forward.......

Hard to believe the B$G offensive player of the week one week gets benched the next week......Momentum is a thing to be expounded on , not squelched...........JMHO.........................
 
#254      

illiram

illiram
illiram
This makes no sense, at all. And no one is going to change my mind. A collective of high school coaches are shaking their heads folks, and that's not a good thing to get recruits in-state.
 
#255      

hooraybeer

hooraybeer
Pittsburgh, PA
hooraybeer
really tough decision for BB. not sure what it says to the team to bench a player that just earned B1G offensive player of the week... feels like a "start skyy over epps because that is what we agreed to do even though epps is clearly playing better" situation that could cause some division among the team
 
#256      

illinoistradition

I
illinoistradition
As much as I don't fully agree with the decision, Bret continues to impress with his ability to phrase things well. "Starters don't lose their jobs to injury" is a great point. We don't know how the games would have played out with Luke in there, just like we don't know how earlier games this year would have played out with Paddock. It's time to stop comparing beginning of the year Luke and Oline to late season John and Oline. That's just not a fair comparison in a number of ways.
 
#257      

OB positive

O
OB positive
illinoistradition said:
As much as I don't fully agree with the decision, Bret continues to impress with his ability to phrase things well. "Starters don't lose their jobs to injury" is a great point. We don't know how the games would have played out with Luke in there, just like we don't know how earlier games this year would have played out with Paddock. It's time to stop comparing beginning of the year Luke and Oline to late season John and Oline. That's just not a fair comparison in a number of ways.
Click to expand...
Paddock gets the ball out faster than any other quarterback in the Big 10. That is a lot of the reason why the oline pass blocking has looked much better when he's back there. He doesn't hang on the the ball too long like Luke does which has led too a lot of his sacks. Luke is a good quarterback but John is so much better at that aspect of the position.
 
#258      

AutoPoster 3000

AutoPoster 3000
AutoPoster 3000
I support Bielema and I respect that he’s a players coach first but he’s making his bed on this one. If we lose to Iowa, and ESPECIALLY if we then lose to Northwestern and miss out on a bowl, there will be a significant contingent of fans and media that (fair or not) will blame that collapse on the decision to sit Paddock right when he was white hot, playing lights-out football. It’s the kind of thing that could sour a lot of people on Bielema, Altmyer, and the program for a really long time.
 
#259      

illini0440

illini0440
illini0440
OB positive said:
Paddock gets the ball out faster than any other quarterback in the Big 10. That is a lot of the reason why the oline pass blocking has looked much better when he's back there. He doesn't hang on the the ball too long like Luke does which has led too a lot of his sacks. Luke is a good quarterback but John is so much better at that aspect of the position.
Click to expand...
He played against a soft cover 2 with 3-4 rushers for one series against Minny and then Indiana gets 0 pressure on the QB
 
#261      

Ander1345

A
Ander1345
AutoPoster 3000 said:
I support Bielema and I respect that he’s a players coach first but he’s making his bed on this one. If we lose to Iowa, and ESPECIALLY if we then lose to Northwestern and miss out on a bowl, there will be a significant contingent of fans and media that (fair or not) will blame that collapse on the decision to sit Paddock right when he was white hot, playing lights-out football. It’s the kind of thing that could sour a lot of people on Bielema, Altmyer, and the program for a really long time.
Click to expand...
I just don't agree with this at all. Sportsmedia is bubbling at the brim with outside perspective.

We can not see much of these players in practice as outsiders. We don't know what Altmyer looks like vs what Paddock looks like. If Luke has looked better in the majority of practice/scrimmage/game reps you have to go with Luke. Is it possible that good, confident, talented players miss out on playing time because their reps just don't look as you good? Of course.

But I don't want a program built on "gut feelings." I want a program with a solid foundation that puts itself in a spot to win before they even suit up on Saturdays.
 
#262      

FloridaMan

F
FloridaMan
I guess the promises to Luke to seal the transfer trumps the hot hand. Don't really agree with the decision, but I cling to the hope that they both play Saturday.
 
#264      

Dkayak

D
Dkayak
It doesn’t even seem to be in Luke’s long term best interest at this point. One violent sack (likely) and he’s concussed worse than last time, maybe with long term brain damage. Heal up fully and enjoy the ride. Don’t let ego drive a bad decision for all concerned.
 
#265      

TheChief4Life

TheChief4Life
TheChief4Life
illini0440 said:
He played against a soft cover 2 with 3-4 rushers for one series against Minny and then Indiana gets 0 pressure on the QB
Click to expand...
I agree with this, I really do. To me, the problem is that this year we've seen what Altmyer can do against an opponent like Iowa... and it wasn't good. We haven't seen how Paddock would handle this type of team. I don't think the emphasis on HOW BAD Altmyer was against Penn St. has really been brought up. Maybe Paddock will be that bad, too, but we don't know. We can assume, maybe, and obviously coaches see it in practice, so they are better equipped to answer this.

Here's the one thing we know is true: if Altmyer goes in, and has an awful game, we do have an issue, because a decision will have to be made.

I'm just glad it's a decision I don't have to make.
 
#266      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Dkayak said:
It doesn’t even seem to be in Luke’s long term best interest at this point. One violent sack (likely) and he’s concussed worse than last time, maybe with long term brain damage. Heal up fully and enjoy the ride. Don’t let ego drive a bad decision for all concerned.
Click to expand...
I didn't even think of that angle, but I now find this decision completely bonkers if it is not coach speak to keep Iowa preparing for both QBs. We literally have a built-in reason to bring Altmyer back gradually to be cautious with his concussion AND a backup QB that just threw for over 500 yards ... starting Paddock and bringing in Altmyer later seems like the best decision.
 
#267      

hooraybeer

hooraybeer
Pittsburgh, PA
hooraybeer
illinoistradition said:
As much as I don't fully agree with the decision, Bret continues to impress with his ability to phrase things well. "Starters don't lose their jobs to injury" is a great point. We don't know how the games would have played out with Luke in there, just like we don't know how earlier games this year would have played out with Paddock. It's time to stop comparing beginning of the year Luke and Oline to late season John and Oline. That's just not a fair comparison in a number of ways.
Click to expand...
tell that to Drew Bledsoe
 
#268      

AutoPoster 3000

AutoPoster 3000
AutoPoster 3000
illini0440 said:
He played against a soft cover 2 with 3-4 rushers for one series against Minny and then Indiana gets 0 pressure on the QB
Click to expand...
I’d follow this logic totally if Paddock had a very good game against Indiana. But Paddock did not have a very good game. He broke the record for most passing yards ever by an Illini QB at Memorial Stadium and threw for the second most passing yards in program’s 133 year history. He hung 504 yards (plus 4 TDs) on a defense that was averaging 220.8 passing yards allowed in conference before that. I mean, wow, that must have been a really weak pass rush.
 
#269      

Pikeillinifan

Pikeillinifan
Pikeillinifan
TheChief4Life said:
I agree with this, I really do. To me, the problem is that this year we've seen what Altmyer can do against an opponent like Iowa... and it wasn't good. We haven't seen how Paddock would handle this type of team. I don't think the emphasis on HOW BAD Altmyer was against Penn St. has really been brought up. Maybe Paddock will be that bad, too, but we don't know. We can assume, maybe, and obviously coaches see it in practice, so they are better equipped to answer this.

Here's the one thing we know is true: if Altmyer goes in, and has an awful game, we do have an issue, because a decision will have to be made.

I'm just glad it's a decision I don't have to make.
Click to expand...
This is where my head is too, he just had some mind boggling bad throws in that game. Iowa's defense is better, and his tendency (so far) to make some really bad throws against great defenses.

Then, what do you do, pull him again? If this happens and Paddock plays great, even if we lose then what happens? Say f it, start and Luke against NU with a bowl game on the line?

Just doesn't make any sense to me, and the more I think about it, seems like a really poor decision. Why wouldn't you start Paddock because Luke is still not 100%, then have the option to bench him early if he's not playing well, get Luke back in there, and let the chips fall where they may.

Paddock plays great again and we win, awesome. Paddock plays poorly (or even average) and he's pulled early, Luke is cemented as the starter with ZERO questions, it's a win win, UNLESS Luke is gone if he's not the starter the rest of they year, which is the only thing that makes any sense.
 
#270      

BalloonsTheElephant

B
BalloonsTheElephant
I don't have an issue with Altmyer starting. He's been good, not great, and the last six games has been very solid.

Take away his first three games and he has a 10/3 TD/INT ratio, 220yds per game, 140 rating, and 65.5% completion percentage, and 7YPA.
 
#272      

ILLjuice

ILLjuice
ILLjuice
Isn't this literally how Tom Brady became Tom Brady? How the hell do you not start Paddock after what we saw from him?


I'm not convinced. There's no way Paddock does not start on Saturday.
 
#273      

Bleedorangeandblue44

B
Bleedorangeandblue44
illini0440 said:
He played against a soft cover 2 with 3-4 rushers for one series against Minny and then Indiana gets 0 pressure on the QB
Click to expand...
You can like Luke starting this game and I'd completely be OK with it because I've also liked what he's done this year -- but no reason to downgrade AT ALL what Paddock has done. Seriously, coming in completely cold in 4th and forever to win the game vs. Minnesota and then throwing for over 500 yards vs. Indiana
 
#274      

Dkayak

D
Dkayak
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I didn't even think of that angle, but I now find this decision completely bonkers if it is not coach speak to keep Iowa preparing for both QBs. We literally have a built-in reason to bring Altmyer back gradually to be cautious with his concussion AND a backup QB that just threw for over 500 yards ... starting Paddock and bringing in Altmyer later seems like the best decision.
Click to expand...
Starting Paddock would truly be a win-win situation for both QB’s and the team. Give JP a chance to try his hot hand at the end of his last season. Let Luke fully recover, knowing he has two more seasons, but he’s still ready as a solid backup. Pride is the only reason to say a starter never loses his job due to injury. Pride drives bad decisions.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.