This is Luke’s second concussion, no? Who does it actually benefit to rush him right back out there against one of the best defenses in the country? This is just an objectively bad decision for everyone involved except for BB’s moral code, and I just hope we’re not making it because we’re handcuffed by how much we’re paying Luke or what we’ve promised him.
Pregame: Illinois at Iowa, Saturday, November 18th, 2:30pm CT, FS1
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Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Don't get me wrong, I think Paddock has played great in his opportunities the last game + 1 drive, but this is exactly accurate. Coach B has to put the team in the best position to win, and I really do not see Paddock as giving the Illini the best chance to win.
Now if Altmyer is not 100% ready to go, then I would agree that Paddock has to start. The problem for me is that many are seeing the record breaking performance last week as empirical evidence that Paddock is the best QB on the team right now and who to play, but a lot of that is because of having plenty of time to throw the ball and receivers streaking open across the field (this has happened consistently with QB's making their first start against the Illini defense the last decade or so). I truly believe that Altymer would have done close to the same thing last week against Indiana given their woeful defensive approach. This does not take anything away from Paddock's performance at all. He has performed admirably, and should be ready to come in should things go South quickly on Saturday.
Given the defense that Illini are about to see on Saturday, Paddock is due for a regression to the mean game (he was not exactly lighting up the world at Ball State last year when he played every week). I think that Altmyer's legs might be the difference maker when the pocket inevitably collapses consistently on Saturday, and he has actually been performing at a high level pre-injury. By starting Altmyer, the Illini are also able to preserve the legend of Paddock.
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This is the point. Luke’s last 6 games, where he’s been admittedly “solid” he’s averaged well UNDER HALF of what Paddock did Saturday. He’s actually only topped half of Paddock’s game yards twice this season. This shouldn’t even be a discussion. It’s not like Luke was moderately outperformed by his backup. Paddock blew the MF doors off the stadium.
I can tell you what is going to happen. Luke will make mistakes through 2 quarters against a great D, then Paddock will come in and make it close and we will all say what would have happened had he played the whole game. Not one SEC coach would be making this decision. We are still in the Big Ten West, and the better QB will not be playing. Play for the present for once.
blackdog
- Champaign
People are only reacting to part of the quote and not the whole thing. He set his general policy and stated they are following that as of right now but that there is a gray area in there. Just because Luke is the starter as of today (first day he is cleared) does not mean he is guaranteed to be the starter on Saturday.
BZuppke
- Plainfield
I was thinking this - Bret stays consistent with ‘starters don’t lose their jobs over injuries’ but what if Luke just doesn’t feel ready on Saturday? I don’t think he would fake not feeling right, but he legitimately does not. That would be a gray area?
I’m sure there are compelling reasons to start Altmyer that have nothing to do with game planning for Iowa and perhaps a few reasons that in fact do have to do with game planning for Iowa. For instance, Altmyer is certainly more mobile and can gain yards with his legs.
But it’s kind of comical to me have quickly we’re now pivoting to the rationalization that it totally makes sense to start Altmyer because the performances we just saw from Paddock were actually not remarkable or special at all because anyone could convert on 4th and long and drive the length of the field on three completions if the defense is playing a soft cover two, and heck who can’t set historic passing records in a game including a walk-off TD when facing an opposing defense that has a slightly below FBS average (ranked #81 in sacks) pass rush. I’m sure it totally won’t be another 43 years until another Illini QB throws for 500+ yards in a game.
Justify starting Altmyer for whatever reason, that’s fine. But let’s please not pretend that it’s not a huge risk to yank the cord on the QB that got you to this spot by delivering two consecutive, mind-boggling historical all-time performances. If the decision backfires, there’s going to a fan and media backlash like we’ve never seen. People are not going to just brush it off and say “Eh, that Paddock thing was a fluke anyway. I mean, who did he even play? The important thing even though we lost out and missed a bowl game is that we held firm to the principle that starters don’t lose their jobs to injury.”
But it’s kind of comical to me have quickly we’re now pivoting to the rationalization that it totally makes sense to start Altmyer because the performances we just saw from Paddock were actually not remarkable or special at all because anyone could convert on 4th and long and drive the length of the field on three completions if the defense is playing a soft cover two, and heck who can’t set historic passing records in a game including a walk-off TD when facing an opposing defense that has a slightly below FBS average (ranked #81 in sacks) pass rush. I’m sure it totally won’t be another 43 years until another Illini QB throws for 500+ yards in a game.
Justify starting Altmyer for whatever reason, that’s fine. But let’s please not pretend that it’s not a huge risk to yank the cord on the QB that got you to this spot by delivering two consecutive, mind-boggling historical all-time performances. If the decision backfires, there’s going to a fan and media backlash like we’ve never seen. People are not going to just brush it off and say “Eh, that Paddock thing was a fluke anyway. I mean, who did he even play? The important thing even though we lost out and missed a bowl game is that we held firm to the principle that starters don’t lose their jobs to injury.”
True, Indiana's D was not good. But, season to date, they have given up an average - including JPs 507 - of 230 passing YPG with the highest before last week being 352. By comparison, we give up 233, with last week's 289 being the high. So, how many of us believe Luke would have put up 500 on Indiana? My opinion is that he likely would not have. JP has clearly shown the ability to get the ball out quickly and accurately; I think it was J Leman who noted it was something like 2.5 seconds which is extremely quick, that number may be off but you get the point...
I just think if Luke ultimately starts it is the result of the promise that was made to him and his camp that he would be the starter this year barring an injury that kept him out. Otherwise, based on empirical evidence the decision is just curious to me. Again, hopefully they both play to keep Iowa's D off balance. Will be interesting to see, but BB is opening himself and Luke up to a lot of justified criticism if things go south Saturday.
I just think if Luke ultimately starts it is the result of the promise that was made to him and his camp that he would be the starter this year barring an injury that kept him out. Otherwise, based on empirical evidence the decision is just curious to me. Again, hopefully they both play to keep Iowa's D off balance. Will be interesting to see, but BB is opening himself and Luke up to a lot of justified criticism if things go south Saturday.
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Was wondering could it be since the depth of the teams running backs are down. B.B. will use Luke as that Q.B. running back option against Hawkbeaks. Take pressure off the R.Bs. so defense can't focus on em as much. Luck is much better at this than J.P.
BlindLoyalty
- FartNoiseMotivation
Decided schematic advantage. Circle me Bert.
Most of the sacks that Luke has taken this season is where opposing DEs have been getting to him completely untouched. The 2.5s John has gotten to throw has simply was not even close to being there for Luke earlier this season. When Luke has gotten time in the pocket he's been pretty good. When he has thrown while rolling out is where he has struggled. Luke played quite well against Minnesota and that was our best oline game outside of Indiana. I just see this as way more complicated than John good, Luke bad.
Plus, Iowa is a much much much different animal than Indiana. Having a guy who can accurately throw a deep ball over the top in Paddock is indeed a bonus in forcing Iowa to account for it. Luke being able to run the ball and his accuracy on firing quick slants is indeed a bonus in forcing Iowa to account for it. They're both good options, it's just what is going to be more effective in this one and can the oline hold up
Any word on Feagin.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
I brought some of this up earlier with my ten thoughts, but I’ll bring up the points for why this makes sense:
(1) if your concern is Altmyer turning the ball over, then you’re ignoring the entirety of Paddock’s performance at Illinois (& at Ball State). His turnover worthy throw % has been higher this year than Altmyer and his career rate is also higher. I believe the impression of greater turnovers from Altmyer is (a) he’s played a lot more than Paddock, and (b) he’s faced much much better defenses than Paddock. Iowa feasts on turnovers.
(2) Bielema seems strongly in favor of not losing your job due to injury. Not sure I view this as an absolute.
(3) There’s going to be a lot more QB pressure this week than last week. Indiana didn’t create much pressure last week. Altmyer’s legs could be invaluable with offense being much more difficult.
I’ll say this to preface EVERYTHING that happens this week: this is a diabolical defense. We need to couch our opinions on the upcoming challenge as we assess the QBs performance. If Paddock or Altmyer can go 17-24 for 190 yards and a TD, that’s likely a very good performance. I’m already worried that, if Luke starts and puts up this type of line, we’re going to see venom from fans comparing it to Paddock’s line against Indiana with no consideration of comparing the quality of competition. I’m not taking anything away from Paddock’s performance, it was record-breaking and he deserves consideration to start.
(1) if your concern is Altmyer turning the ball over, then you’re ignoring the entirety of Paddock’s performance at Illinois (& at Ball State). His turnover worthy throw % has been higher this year than Altmyer and his career rate is also higher. I believe the impression of greater turnovers from Altmyer is (a) he’s played a lot more than Paddock, and (b) he’s faced much much better defenses than Paddock. Iowa feasts on turnovers.
(2) Bielema seems strongly in favor of not losing your job due to injury. Not sure I view this as an absolute.
(3) There’s going to be a lot more QB pressure this week than last week. Indiana didn’t create much pressure last week. Altmyer’s legs could be invaluable with offense being much more difficult.
I’ll say this to preface EVERYTHING that happens this week: this is a diabolical defense. We need to couch our opinions on the upcoming challenge as we assess the QBs performance. If Paddock or Altmyer can go 17-24 for 190 yards and a TD, that’s likely a very good performance. I’m already worried that, if Luke starts and puts up this type of line, we’re going to see venom from fans comparing it to Paddock’s line against Indiana with no consideration of comparing the quality of competition. I’m not taking anything away from Paddock’s performance, it was record-breaking and he deserves consideration to start.
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Does this also mean Love is the #1 starter at RB the rest of the season since he was out with injury a bunch of games? Know running back position tends to use more depth so little different but BB tries to word things carefully.
I don't agree with BB on all decisions made but I do trust him with this program. Go Illini!
I don't agree with BB on all decisions made but I do trust him with this program. Go Illini!
Penn State figured their def out.
So much to unpack.
1. Unless someone else has a different full quote, what i saw BB say was not that Luke is starter it’s: "As of yesterday, Luke has been totally cleared to play. Because of that, he is our starting quarterback before he left and that's where I sort of see it now.... if there's any part of that that gets gray we have a guy that has proven he can play..." so, that does not say “Luke will start at Iowa” it says Luke is cleared and was QB1 before injury and then muddles everything up with coach speak. Where did he say Luke will start?
2. BB has literally never disclosed this stuff if there’s a competitive advantage. Why now, when it’s the one situation where it actually gives you a bonafide advantage? I smell a smokescreen; the only reason it wouldn’t be is if LA or his family said something like “start him or he transfers.” I have no indication of that so I’m not buying this.
3. As to JP over Luke, it’s not that John has shown he’s clearly better - it’s that the team is wholly bought into him and has confidence behind him. The OL performed their best with *him.* every teammate is dapping up *him.* I think in a vacuum we wouldn’t really know unless we saw camp/practice tape, but man the team and this fanbase want JP. It’s obvious. There’s literally nothing to lose. Other than upsetting Luke
1. Unless someone else has a different full quote, what i saw BB say was not that Luke is starter it’s: "As of yesterday, Luke has been totally cleared to play. Because of that, he is our starting quarterback before he left and that's where I sort of see it now.... if there's any part of that that gets gray we have a guy that has proven he can play..." so, that does not say “Luke will start at Iowa” it says Luke is cleared and was QB1 before injury and then muddles everything up with coach speak. Where did he say Luke will start?
2. BB has literally never disclosed this stuff if there’s a competitive advantage. Why now, when it’s the one situation where it actually gives you a bonafide advantage? I smell a smokescreen; the only reason it wouldn’t be is if LA or his family said something like “start him or he transfers.” I have no indication of that so I’m not buying this.
3. As to JP over Luke, it’s not that John has shown he’s clearly better - it’s that the team is wholly bought into him and has confidence behind him. The OL performed their best with *him.* every teammate is dapping up *him.* I think in a vacuum we wouldn’t really know unless we saw camp/practice tape, but man the team and this fanbase want JP. It’s obvious. There’s literally nothing to lose. Other than upsetting Luke
This is a bit of a red herring i think. Altmyer starts, Paddock plays, we win. best of all three worlds.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
I was thinking about this but I’m not sure we even have an answer from last week. Feagin “started” the first possession but it’s easy to argue that RB is constantly rotated. Love ended up getting a lot more playing time but Feagin was hurt.
I agree with comments re surprised that BB announced starter so early in the week. But then again, BB seems adept at mind games.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
CAIllini
- West Coast
Wow, this really surprises me if true. Maybe this is a fake-out move for Iowa. Agree with AutoPoster that if true, and it backfires, this decision could really haunt Bielema...
Just doesn't make sense to me on multiple levels. A faster release for JP improves the OL efficiency, safer health-wise to hold LA post concussion, epic last game from JP with fan & likely player support [what must IW think given their chemistry] & program momentum, both likely go struggle against Iowa regardless so JP->LA is a much easier shift at halftime than LA->JP which disrupts the rest of the season and maybe next year in our transfer world.
At some point Bret has to remember that he is CEO of an entertainment business masquerading as amateur sport, and optics rule the world in today's day and age. The optics here are heavily in the opposite direction from everything we're hearing out of media and fans, and what I've seen with my own eyes over the last two weeks.
If he goes with Luke it's a ballsy move so kudos to him if truly feels that's the best path football-wise...certainly not the safe/easy/popular decision from the comfortable view of our couches. On the flipside, I suppose that's what great leaders do when they have a strong belief in a decision despite headwinds.
We'll see what really happens Saturday, I'm not convinced he's showing all his cards just yet.
Regardless, it's so fun to be on a winning streak and still have these football things to talk about and not be 100% basketball focused by this time on the calendar!
Now let's just beat Iowa and not have this all diverge into dramaville....Go Illini.
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