Pregame: Illinois at Maryland, Tuesday, December 27th, 4:00pm CT, ESPN2

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#105      
The gauntlet begins! Our first 4 are...

@Maryland
Ohio St
@Indiana
Michigan

Just for fun, would you rather go 1-3 but that win is @Indiana or 2-2 (losing to Indiana)? Initially I was thinking I would rather beat IU because there aren't as many chances at elite wins as there normally are in the B1G. But I'm on the fence so I would love to here some other opinions.

I think we're better served with 2 wins. Indiana isn't so much better that it would be worth another loss IMHO.
 
#107      
He has 9 B1G teams in and although Illinois isn't currently one of them (Maryland is), it shows that the conference is deeper than past years although not necessarily full of elite teams. 10-8 would get them in and I would bet that 9-9 would get them in depending on who they beat.

Previous Lunardi Brackets:
4/Purdue
4/Wisconsin
5/Indiana
9/Michigan
10/Michigan St.
10/OSU
12/Northwestern

Most Recent:
4/Purdue
4/Wisconsin
5/Indiana
7/Maryland +
9/Michigan
10/Michigan St.
10/OSU
11/Minnesota +
12/Northwestern

Maryland and Minnesota slot in, which are the next two teams that likely deserve mention that weren't in the previous list.

I guess we agree that 10-8 likely gets them (maybe needing 1 BTT win too), but I wouldn't be betting on 9-9 getting the Illini in this year. Illini went 10-8 in '09-'10 and didn't get in and the B1G looked pretty tough that year.

Here's how the Illini's schedule plays out against those 9 teams:
1 @Purdue
1 Wisconsin
1 @Indiana
2 Maryland
2 Michigan
1 Michigan St.
1 OSU
1 Minnesota
2 Northwestern

That's 12 games. So if the Illini just win the 6 games against teams who aren't in the above list, all they need is to win 3 of those 12 games to go 9-9. Suppose Illinois beats tOSU, Minnesota and Northwestern at home and then drops all of the rest? That puts them at 5-4 at home and 4-5 on the road with no good road wins. Do you think that 9-9 deserves to get into the NCAA tourney? The opening road game at Maryland is already starting to look pretty big.

By the way, that schedule doesn't look all that strong for those who are saying how good the B1G is this year. This Illini team definitely has the talent to win at least 11 B1G regular season games.

Go Illini!
 
#109      
Previous Lunardi Brackets:
4/Purdue
4/Wisconsin
5/Indiana
9/Michigan
10/Michigan St.
10/OSU
12/Northwestern

Most Recent:
4/Purdue
4/Wisconsin
5/Indiana
7/Maryland +
9/Michigan
10/Michigan St.
10/OSU
11/Minnesota +
12/Northwestern

Maryland and Minnesota slot in, which are the next two teams that likely deserve mention that weren't in the previous list.

I guess we agree that 10-8 likely gets them (maybe needing 1 BTT win too), but I wouldn't be betting on 9-9 getting the Illini in this year. Illini went 10-8 in '09-'10 and didn't get in and the B1G looked pretty tough that year.

Here's how the Illini's schedule plays out against those 9 teams:
1 @Purdue
1 Wisconsin
1 @Indiana
2 Maryland
2 Michigan
1 Michigan St.
1 OSU
1 Minnesota
2 Northwestern

That's 12 games. So if the Illini just win the 6 games against teams who aren't in the above list, all they need is to win 3 of those 12 games to go 9-9. Suppose Illinois beats tOSU, Minnesota and Northwestern at home and then drops all of the rest? That puts them at 5-4 at home and 4-5 on the road with no good road wins. Do you think that 9-9 deserves to get into the NCAA tourney? The opening road game at Maryland is already starting to look pretty big.

By the way, that schedule doesn't look all that strong for those who are saying how good the B1G is this year. This Illini team definitely has the talent to win at least 11 B1G regular season games.

Go Illini!

This is probably more appropriate in the bracketology thread but I don't know if 9-9 would get them in with that scenario but the conference did well enough in the preseason to make me somewhat confident about it. The 2009-10 season was funky, they deserved a spot IMO but the conference was extremely weak at the bottom. This year is different with every team possibly being in the top 100. I'm not saying that a 9-9 record gets them in every year, but with our non-conference record, and the strength of our conference this year, I think they would get a spot. With 10-8, I really wouldn't be sweating that much unless they completely choked in the conference tournament.

Tomorrow will be an interesting game. A loss wouldn't kill our postseason goals but a win would be huge for our confidence. I have high hopes despite playing on the road. Maryland is a young team and a lot teams tend to struggle over break and I bet that is even more true for young teams. Our team has to be really hungry to start the conference slate on a high note and I have a feeling that this is going to be a game where we'll have a pretty complete game if the refs let them play B1G level basketball. I think we match up really well with this team.
 
#110      
Correct me if I'm wrong but this will be Big Mike's SECOND Big Ten Game? That's crazy to think about, hope he's motivated and ready
 
#111      
I do too but not for this season. What kind of production do you realistically expect from him this year?

I would be shocked if Kipper "Lebron James with a jumpshot" Nichols scores more than 8 points in a game this year.

I expect him to get similar minutes to DJ
 
#112      
I thought Kipper was dressed for the game, I know he got a DNP.
Kipper, DJ, and AJ are all in a tough spot this year regarding minutes. It doesn't mean
they are not good or overhyped. I would like more rest for Hill and more Hill at the SG, which will free up time for DJ and possibly Kipper.

Also too early to start quoting Lunardi, that guy has too be the most overhyped person in the history of sports.
 
#113      

whovous

Washington, DC
I say this a lot, but I think this game is all about the bigs. The Terps are injured inside, they are thin inside, and they are not skilled inside. Big Bo and Mav need to get their 7'1" center in foul trouble early. Thorne has started but Mav has had more minutes the last two games. I wonder if that pattern will continue.
 
#114      
I say this a lot, but I think this game is all about the bigs. The Terps are injured inside, they are thin inside, and they are not skilled inside. Big Bo and Mav need to get their 7'1" center in foul trouble early. Thorne has started but Mav has had more minutes the last two games. I wonder if that pattern will continue.

Yup, looks likely to be a game of our bigs against their guards to me. An interesting contest and the final result could fall anywhere in a 15 point range.
 
#115      

whovous

Washington, DC
Yup, looks likely to be a game of our bigs against their guards to me. An interesting contest and the final result could fall anywhere in a 15 point range.

I agree. We could win by two or lose by thirteen. That is a fifteen point range. I don't see us blowing them out. I do worry that a close game sees Trimble getting a half-dozen foul shots in the final minute. Combine that with our clock killing offensive strategy of 25 seconds of dribbling followed by a few ticks of hero ball and I will be one nervous camper.

I have very bad seats for this game. I was hoping to move down to something better, but it looks like it will be close to full even with the students gone.
 
#116      

Deleted member 3875

D
Guest
Black and Thorne not being foul machines determines this game.
 
#117      

whovous

Washington, DC
I don't think Maryland has the sort of inside game that can cause us to foul frequently. Their guards are the ones that spend all their time at the charity stripe.
 
#119      
If you look at Maryland's victories against decent teams they all were won by one point or went to overtime. So I think this will be a close game since it appears Illinois is "showing" unlike what happened in Brooklyn.

UM not being overly athletic, big, or a solid 3 point team bodes well for the Illini. I think key is passing the ball that lead to multiple scoring options. Having Malcolm back his man down consistently for fade aways jumpers will not do it. We need inside(Thorne, Mav), outside(Abrams, JCL, Hill, Finke), and midrange (Black, Hill). Getting UM in foul trouble is also a plus. We need to limit the bone head quick shots when we have other options.
 
#121      

illinimike

Wheaton, IL
Or maybe we just overhyped the hell out of an unranked player.

I agree. I'm not saying Kipper is a bad player, but you can count the number of college games he's played on one hand. He will need to prove himself before he starts getting anywhere close double digit minutes. He is an unknown at this point in-game.
 
#122      

Illini_1979

Oregon
I agree that this is a winnable game, but College Park ain't Champaign. Xfinity Center has it's own stop on the DC Metro and the bulk of the student body probably lives within an hour or so drive, so not on campus doesn't mean they aren't nearby.

There's also this: http://www.umterps.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=29700&ATCLID=211007532

I expect a near sellout for their B1G opener.

Maybe the crowd will put some life in our guys as well. I thought that the small, quiet crowd at the Miznoz game didn't give them a spark.

Edit --> I wonder if the weather will affect the size of the crowd?
 
#123      
Also too early to start quoting Lunardi, that guy has too be the most overhyped person in the history of sports.

Boy you nailed that one,


In the five years prior to the expanded opening round, Lunardi averaged 63.8 teams correctly predicted (98.15%) and 26.8 seeds correctly predicted. In the five years since the field expanded to 68 teams, Lunardi has averaged 66.6 teams correctly predicted (97.94%) and 36 seeds correctly predicted (52.94%).
 
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#124      

whovous

Washington, DC
Maybe the crowd will put some life in our guys as well. I thought that the small, quiet crowd at the Miznoz game didn't give them a spark.

Edit --> I wonder if the weather will affect the size of the crowd?

It is currently 64F and mostly sunny in College Park. A perfect day for grilling. Let's hope Terp fans take advantage of it.
 
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