Pregame: Illinois at Michigan State, Saturday, February 10th, 1:00pm CT, CBS

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#151      

BretMyBeachHouse

B
BretMyBeachHouse
Totally get people's various takes on coming off a loss. I'll say I think teams that are more mentally tough (Izzo's would classically be so) will tend to come back strong. But pretty much a gut more than anything.

However, I consider every road game on the schedule a tough one that will turn into losses without strong coaching and strong play. Mediocrity in either area spells a defeat. Kinda like the NW game.
 
#155      

Calvin

C
Calvin
Bigtex said:
I know I pay as much attention to the # of 3's we shoot. Seems like we play best if we shoot 20-25
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I feel like it's ball movement and open looks. We're actually a decent 3 point shooting team when the shots are good. We don't have anyone like Tominaga that can shoot contested shots well or create on his own. The closest thing we have is TSJ can force drives and usually get a foul or a bucket, and Domask has been excellent in isolation either using that fade away, or getting a post move that uses the backboard.

I gotta add that Ty has been a frickin BEAST getting to the glass and cleaning up or getting extra possessions.
 
#156      

john1952

john1952
john1952
Fighter of the Nightman said:
MSU will likely be desperate and give us their best shot on Saturday in front of a great crowd ... a win would go a LONG way to proving we are back to pre-suspension form.
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Any one have the numbers, how often does a team coming off a road loss and returning home for a home game, cover the spread????
 
#158      

aaeismacgychel

A
aaeismacgychel
We're due for a game where we put it all together, and also due for a game where an opponent plays an absolute clunker. Seems like it has been a while for both, and I'd be perfectly happy if this is the game both happen. That said, I expect a really tight game in this one- wouldn't be surprised if this one came down to a one possession game in the final minute.

I think Izzo puts Sissoko on Ty again, and with the way Ty has been playing, I think he's going to cook. Put me down for 15pts, 6rebs for Ty and a loaded stat sheet. And a healthy Quincy cutting to the rim should benefit and provide some explosive plays.
 
#159      

21ChampaignSt

21ChampaignSt
21ChampaignSt
Two more sleeps.

Next time we have to wait this long between games will hopefully be the seven months between April and November 😎
 
#160      

aaeismacgychel

A
aaeismacgychel
In additional Ty appreciation news, over the past 6 games, Ty not only has been better than 1.00 pts per possession in every single one of those games, but he has the following truly absurd advanced stat line:

Ty over past 6 games:
-Contributed to 20.4% of possessions (significant contributor)
-averaging 1.278pts per possession!!! (For a basis of comparison, Purdue, the #1 most efficient offense in the nation averages 1.26ppp and Edey averages 1.285ppp)
-That 1.278ppp on >20% contributions, would rank Ty in the Top 10 player list for offensive efficiency who significantly contribute to their team's possessions!
-Averaging 9.0ppg, 7.2rpg, 2.2apg, 2.2a/to ratio
-And per 40? 15.8pp40, 12.6rp40, 3.8ap40, and 2.2a/to ratio.

Basically, Ty over these past 6 games has been an absolute beast. If he continues his forward progression, he's going to put up Evan Turner numbers next year.
 
#161      

GrayGhost77

GrayGhost77
Centennial, CO
GrayGhost77
aaeismacgychel said:
In additional Ty appreciation news, over the past 6 games, Ty not only has been better than 1.00 pts per possession in every single one of those games, but he has the following truly absurd advanced stat line:

Ty over past 6 games:
-Contributed to 20.4% of possessions (significant contributor)
-averaging 1.278pts per possession!!! (For a basis of comparison, Purdue, the #1 most efficient offense in the nation averages 1.26ppp and Edey averages 1.285ppp)
-That 1.278ppp on >20% contributions, would rank Ty in the Top 10 player list for offensive efficiency who significantly contribute to their team's possessions!
-Averaging 9.0ppg, 7.2rpg, 2.2apg, 2.2a/to ratio
-And per 40? 15.8pp40, 12.6rp40, 3.8ap40, and 2.2a/to ratio.

Basically, Ty over these past 6 games has been an absolute beast. If he continues his forward progression, he's going to put up Evan Turner numbers next year.
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Personally I think he should be getting far more minutes this year than he has been. At least 30 min/game. Much like Coleman, he's that important to team success.
 
#162      

aaeismacgychel

A
aaeismacgychel
GrayGhost77 said:
Personally I think he should be getting far more minutes this year than he has been. At least 30 min/game. Much like Coleman, he's that important to team success.
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Since TSJ's suspension, both advanced stats and eye test agree that Ty has been one of our Top 3 players if not our best player outright. And while arguments can be made for CoHawk or Marcus, the team just plays much better and has much more movement on both sides of the ball when Ty is on the court. And while his offensive efficiency on possessions he contributes on is ELITE, even when the team misses a shot for every 9 shots we miss, Ty is going to get us a 2nd chance opportunity. He has been ridiculously good. And I'm in complete agreement with you- we need him on the floor as much as possible and 30mpg should be the goal.
 
#163      

WhiteHorseWings

WhiteHorseWings
WhiteHorseWings
aaeismacgychel said:
Since TSJ's suspension, both advanced stats and eye test agree that Ty has been one of our Top 3 players if not our best player outright. And while arguments can be made for CoHawk or Marcus, the team just plays much better and has much more movement on both sides of the ball when Ty is on the court. And while his offensive efficiency on possessions he contributes on is ELITE, even when the team misses a shot for every 9 shots we miss, Ty is going to get us a 2nd chance opportunity. He has been ridiculously good. And I'm in complete agreement with you- we need him on the floor as much as possible and 30mpg should be the goal.
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Just glad for a Sat afternoon game. Our schedule has kind of sucked this year compared to how it has typically been, as far as the days and times they play.
 
#164      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
john1952 said:
Any one have the numbers, how often does a team coming off a road loss and returning home for a home game, cover the spread????
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I definitely do not have those numbers, but just looking at Wikipedia since the 2019-20 season, these are MSU's next home results directly following a road loss in Big Ten play:

2019-20
L 71-42 at Purdue --> W 67-55 vs. Wisconsin
L 64-63 at Wisconsin --> L 75-70 vs. #22 Penn State

2020-21
L 84-78 at #8 Iowa --> W 66-56 vs. Nebraska
L 73-55 at Maryland --> W 64-58 vs. Indiana
L 69-50 at #2 Michigan --> W 70-64 vs. #2 Michigan (weird COVID schedule)

2021-22
L 56-55 at #24 Illinois --> W 83-67 vs. Michigan
L 84-63 at Rutgers --> L 70-62 vs. #14 Wisconsin
L 62-58 at Penn State --> L 79-74 vs. #12 Illinois
L 86-60 at #25 Iowa --> W 68-65 vs. #4 Purdue
L 80-69 at #23 Ohio State --> W 77-67 vs. Maryland

2022-23
L 75-66 at Illinois --> L 64-63 vs. #3 Purdue
L 82-69 at Indiana --> W 63-61 vs. Iowa
L 84-72 at Michigan --> W 80-65 vs. #17 Indiana

2023-24
L 71-68 at #10 Illinois --> W 73-55 vs. Rutgers
L 81-66 at #13 Wisconsin --> W 81-62 vs. Michigan
L 59-56 at Minnesota ---> ?????? vs. #10 Illinois

So, not really a pattern. :ROFLMAO: I guess the most you could say is that playing an average or below average team at home after a Big Ten road loss does look to be a bit of "medicine" to right the ship. However, in games where they returned home to play a ranked team, they were 3-3 ... and 0-1 against the Illini! So, right back to the same story ... if we think we are better than MSU and we come out and play our game, it will not matter how "desperate" they feel and we will walk away with a massive Quad 1 win.
 
#165      

ManlyLibrarian

M
ManlyLibrarian
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I definitely do not have those numbers, but just looking at Wikipedia since the 2019-20 season, these are MSU's next home results directly following a road loss in Big Ten play:

2019-20
L 71-42 at Purdue --> W 67-55 vs. Wisconsin
L 64-63 at Wisconsin --> L 75-70 vs. #22 Penn State

2020-21
L 84-78 at #8 Iowa --> W 66-56 vs. Nebraska
L 73-55 at Maryland --> W 64-58 vs. Indiana
L 69-50 at #2 Michigan --> W 70-64 vs. #2 Michigan (weird COVID schedule)

2021-22
L 56-55 at #24 Illinois --> W 83-67 vs. Michigan
L 84-63 at Rutgers --> L 70-62 vs. #14 Wisconsin
L 62-58 at Penn State --> L 79-74 vs. #12 Illinois
L 86-60 at #25 Iowa --> W 68-65 vs. #4 Purdue
L 80-69 at #23 Ohio State --> W 77-67 vs. Maryland

2022-23
L 75-66 at Illinois --> L 64-63 vs. #3 Purdue
L 82-69 at Indiana --> W 63-61 vs. Iowa
L 84-72 at Michigan --> W 80-65 vs. #17 Indiana

2023-24
L 71-68 at #10 Illinois --> W 73-55 vs. Rutgers
L 81-66 at #13 Wisconsin --> W 81-62 vs. Michigan
L 59-56 at Minnesota ---> ?????? vs. #10 Illinois

So, not really a pattern. :ROFLMAO: I guess the most you could say is that playing an average or below average team at home after a Big Ten road loss does look to be a bit of "medicine" to right the ship. However, in games where they returned home to play a ranked team, they were 3-3 ... and 0-1 against the Illini! So, right back to the same story ... if we think we are better than MSU and we come out and play our game, it will not matter how "desperate" they feel and we will walk away with a massive Quad 1 win.
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Great work. You're a huge asset to this board.
 
#166      

altgeld88

altgeld88
Arlington, Virginia
altgeld88
EyeoftheIllini said:
I thought the same thing on Sunday. Now I’m like, I have to wait until Saturday to see Illini in action? What? I can’t make it.
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It's always the way. ;) Fortunately we've been entertained in the green room by (1) Maryland face planting at home v. Rutgers; (2) OSU epic meltdown at home v IU; (3) Wisc and MSU bed-soiling in Ann Arbor and Mpls, respectively. That's a lot of entertainment for a two-night stretch.
 
#167      

skyIdub

skyIdub
Winged Warrior
skyIdub
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I definitely do not have those numbers, but just looking at Wikipedia since the 2019-20 season, these are MSU's next home results directly following a road loss in Big Ten play:

2019-20
L 71-42 at Purdue --> W 67-55 vs. Wisconsin
L 64-63 at Wisconsin --> L 75-70 vs. #22 Penn State

2020-21
L 84-78 at #8 Iowa --> W 66-56 vs. Nebraska
L 73-55 at Maryland --> W 64-58 vs. Indiana
L 69-50 at #2 Michigan --> W 70-64 vs. #2 Michigan (weird COVID schedule)

2021-22
L 56-55 at #24 Illinois --> W 83-67 vs. Michigan
L 84-63 at Rutgers --> L 70-62 vs. #14 Wisconsin
L 62-58 at Penn State --> L 79-74 vs. #12 Illinois
L 86-60 at #25 Iowa --> W 68-65 vs. #4 Purdue
L 80-69 at #23 Ohio State --> W 77-67 vs. Maryland

2022-23
L 75-66 at Illinois --> L 64-63 vs. #3 Purdue
L 82-69 at Indiana --> W 63-61 vs. Iowa
L 84-72 at Michigan --> W 80-65 vs. #17 Indiana

2023-24
L 71-68 at #10 Illinois --> W 73-55 vs. Rutgers
L 81-66 at #13 Wisconsin --> W 81-62 vs. Michigan
L 59-56 at Minnesota ---> ?????? vs. #10 Illinois

So, not really a pattern. :ROFLMAO: I guess the most you could say is that playing an average or below average team at home after a Big Ten road loss does look to be a bit of "medicine" to right the ship. However, in games where they returned home to play a ranked team, they were 3-3 ... and 0-1 against the Illini! So, right back to the same story ... if we think we are better than MSU and we come out and play our game, it will not matter how "desperate" they feel and we will walk away with a massive Quad 1 win.
Click to expand...
charlie-day-its-always-sunny-in-philadelphia.gif
 
#171      

ejam21

E
ejam21
Game should be a tossup..Kenpom has this a 1 pt loss, 45 % chance of us winning. Lets win by 10+ anyway
 
#172      

jrichisamazing

J
jrichisamazing
Since TSJ came back, Torvik has our offense ranked 19 and defense 81. That's basically like the good Fran McCaffrey Iowa teams. Offense good enough to beat anyone. Defense soft enough to lose to anyone. That's not a good recipe for a deep tourney run.

I'm worried we kind of are what we are and won't be able to improve that defense. I'm no expert, but it seems to me we don't really blow coverage or mess up the defensive scheme too much. We just get beat in mismatches and struggle to stop dribble penetration. Coleman has been incredibly fun to watch but it's a problem when your 5 man is your best on ball defender.
 
#173      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
jrichisamazing said:
Since TSJ came back, Torvik has our offense ranked 19 and defense 81. That's basically like the good Fran McCaffrey Iowa teams. Offense good enough to beat anyone. Defense soft enough to lose to anyone. That's not a good recipe for a deep tourney run.

I'm worried we kind of are what we are and won't be able to improve that defense. I'm no expert, but it seems to me we don't really blow coverage or mess up the defensive scheme too much. We just get beat in mismatches and struggle to stop dribble penetration. Coleman has been incredibly fun to watch but it's a problem when your 5 man is your best on ball defender.
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For me, an offense is pretty easy to judge ... how many points are you scoring?? And it seems like we have been scoring a lot of points most of the year, from putting up nearly 100 on a Final Four FAU team in regulation to scoring over 85 points in SIX of our Big Ten games. However, I find a defense more difficult and subjective to judge.

For example, I do not think we played bad defense at all vs. FAU or Tennessee, even though we gave up 89 and 86 points, respectively. Those were just good teams who were involved in a shootout of sorts with us. Conversely, while Maryland only scored 76 on us, I thought our defense was pretty terrible. I'm confident our defense can still improve quite a bit to at least where I FELT like it was circa the Mizzou game. I know there is a lot of mental factors involved here, but I don't think we should give up on returning to pre-suspension form by March. 🤷‍♂️
 
#174      

RockfordIllini

R
RockfordIllini
I think there are two primary causes for our defensive falloff

1.Pre suspension, TJ was clearly our best perimeter defender. Losing him was always going to cause a drop off. Additionally we dropped to essentially a 6 man rotation so I’m sure fatigue has been a factor as well.

2. Our offense has been so good. I don’t like this one, You need to have a lot of bite and fight to be a good defensive team. I don’t like it, but it’s human nature if you know you’re going to score 85, to not be as worried about holding teams under 70 and not locking in as hard.

For #1, TJ has been noticeably better the last couple of games, even against Tominaga. And I’m hoping this week of practice lets Brad focus on remedying #2.

I do think part of it is we have so much size it’s harder to “skinny up” and we are getting hung up on screens more than we did with Trent and other smaller, skinnier guards (even junior year Ayo was pretty slight and slippery as a result). I don’t know enough about basketball but hopefully there are some adjustments we can make schematically to account for the fact we aren’t as good at avoiding screens.

That’s why I was disappointed on Sencire’s redshirt year. I do think it’ll be better for his career long term and I get it and I’m glad the staff is making the decision that is best for him long term. But I still thought there were 20 minutes a night for him purely based on his defensive doggedness and the last 10-15 games has only reinforced that. We may be one ball stopper away from a run at a natty and that ball stopper is wearing sweats on our bench.
 
#175      

21ChampaignSt

21ChampaignSt
21ChampaignSt
I'm really eager to see how our defense looks Saturday. I've been kind of alarmed at how much it's regressed. What gives me hope is that we've seen it operate at a high level not that long ago. So, we know they're capable.

I think we're getting there. According to Torvik (and my quick back of the napkin math) our last three games has been our best three game defensive stretch since we went 2-1 against Northwestern, @Purdue, and MSU.
 
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