Unless you're Purdue most away games are. Michigan shouldn't be this bad.
Pregame: Illinois at Michigan, Thursday, January 18th, 7:30pm CT, FS1
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Our depth? We play 6, begrudgingly 7.
We are an enigma. I don't think that anyone knows who we actually are and they includes Vegas. Maryland wasn't a good look and we haven't won a road game without TJ. Everything is very much TBD when it comes to the overall outlook on our season. There's not one game on th schedule that I feel "good" about.
It's game by game until we establish a consistency...good or bad.
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
I was at UI then, watching that game at Murphy's. Very fun times.
I feel pretty good that we will take care of rutgers lol.
Hey, 36% are going in, and there is still Max Williams at 0%. On the other hand, Dain's 69% FG shooting is better than any starter by over 20%, and the same was true by 12% last season.
Personally, I think a good team helps out a weaker big defender by avoiding screens or fighting through them, and selective doubling where Dain stays near the paint, while Illini defenders help when nearby. Opportunities are also based on who our opponents have on the court. To me, Dain looks like a decent match up against Tarris Reed Jr., yet I expect Underwood to play CH to the point that Coleman is visibly tired and possibly fouled at crunch time. Sorry, to me, this is a poor choice. Dain should get 12 to 15 min, if he is playing okay.
Maybe, but I feel like Omoruyi is a better player than Reese, and we just allowed Reese to absolutely abuse us at our place. They are all a concern until we establish that we can consistently defend and make layups.
Reese is more of a “post up and score on you” threat, which we really struggled with (no idea why we didn’t double!), whereas Cliff is more of a lob threat and offensive rebound energy guy.
Cliff is better, but Reese is the type of guy who gives our defense more trouble, IMO.
Is that all that remains of the game? The comeback started around the minute mark.
We will take care of Mich. Hope Harmon’s shot is back.
Bigtex
- DFW
Double Reese - like Northwestern did.
Play drop coverage on Young. quit following him around picks. Go under/let him shoot from distance but slow down the drive(s)
on to Michigan. Scouting reports are much better - need to be prepared for some adjustments.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Wait, isn't home court usually good for about 3 points? So wouldn't this mean that on a neutral court we would be 5- or 6-point favorites? Maybe I am reading this incorrectly.
Either way, I think that line is reasonable. While people might rightfully be concerned after our performance vs. Maryland, that dud still currently sits as an extreme outlier for how this team plays basketball against a large sample size of MUCH better execution and effort - even without TSJ. If you weren't an Illini fan always bracing to be disappointed like I am, you just might say the smart money is that the Illini bounce back here.
Illini in Indiana
- Indiana
Ugh we're only favored by 2.5 !
Our last game was a turd and Michigan played well.
Better buy extra beer for tonight, and I do expect a win
Our last game was a turd and Michigan played well.
Better buy extra beer for tonight, and I do expect a win
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
Apparently, that's the extent of the video online. As with the '05 AZ game, would enjoy seeing the final five mins.
Also, what I particularly enjoy is the effect of our smothering press in the final minute. Reduces many players to lizard-brain reactivity. As Packer notes repeatedly, the MN backcourt players didn't even look downcourt where teammates were wide open. That wild backwards pass out of bounds that set us up for the win is about as panicked a response as occurs in that sitch.
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I thought it would be about 8 points on a neutral court, so expected the line to be around -5. That said, I do expect a bounce back game. I think the last game was just one of those days. If we do drop this one, though, the board will be in a full meltdown. Not expecting it with the team we have, but the strange spread has me a little nervous going into this one tonight.Wait, isn't home court usually good for about 3 points? So wouldn't this mean that on a neutral court we would be 5- or 6-point favorites? Maybe I am reading this incorrectly.
Either way, I think that line is reasonable. While people might rightfully be concerned after our performance vs. Maryland, that dud still currently sits as an extreme outlier for how this team plays basketball against a large sample size of MUCH better execution and effort - even without TSJ. If you weren't an Illini fan always bracing to be disappointed like I am, you just might say the smart money is that the Illini bounce back here.
Computers/Lines are still navigating life without Shannon
GallopingGhost
- Denver, CO
That’s the kind of Vegas line I just stay away from or hammer the home team.
Either way doesn’t bode well. We will see what the Vegas time travelers have foreseen tonight
Clamp down on Dug. Limit Williams 3's. My only fear is they mirror Maryland a bit, this it will be closer than it should.
Illini: 73
Michigan: 68
Illini: 73
Michigan: 68
GallopingGhost
- Denver, CO
FWIW Kenpom and Bartorvik have us about 5 and 4 point favorites in this one, respectively. Botha round 65% win probability. ESPN has us at 70%. And that accounts all season data. So the Vegas line isn’t so egregiously off from what the computers are saying.
Basically a coin flip. Depends which Illini team shows up tonight, our best effort can beat their best, anywhere, any time.
But hey, that’s why we play the games.
Basically a coin flip. Depends which Illini team shows up tonight, our best effort can beat their best, anywhere, any time.
But hey, that’s why we play the games.
Bingo.
As fans, we have no clue what to expect.... ESPECIALLY on the road. Tonight will go a long way in writing the MD debacle off to just an "off day that everyone has".
Retro62
- North Bethesda, Maryland
Like others, I like when Dain is able to give us good minutes, but there were at least two plays vs. MD where he got in the way of his own teammate and inadvertently set a pick on that teammate, allowing a layup. If he could ever put together a decent defensive game he would be such an asset.
Illinois 76-64
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I have a completely untested theory that bets move our way a disproportionate number of times because of our large fan base. I feel like opposing fans, casual fans and even some Illini fans REALLY underrate how many Illini fans there are. While our fan base size seems to ebb and flow more than a school like Iowa or Wisconsin, the TV ratings, alumni base size, state population, etc. back up us having a very large fan base.
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