Pregame: Illinois at Nebraska, Sunday, February 26th, 6:30pm CT, BTN

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#51      

Cheez

Cheez
Sun Prairie WI
Cheez
Illinoiser33 said:
Again, NEB has not won a game all season after a loss trailing a win. In other words, every losing streak has been at least two games. Their current losing streak is 1 game. Will the trend continue?
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Lets take a look at their 4 2+ game losing streaks thus far

Game 1: UCLA
Game 2: VT - neutral site

Game 1: Creighton
Game 2: at Kansas

Game 1: Northwestern
Game 2: at Michigan

Game 1: vs. Michigan State
Game 2: at Iowa

I think that the opponents they played (and where they played them) had more to do with Nebraska losing then some statistical anomaly. You're seeing correlations that don't really exist because you are ignoring factors like home court and, more importantly, talent.

Illinoiser33 said:
Illini win this and we have to feel that winning out is a real possibility. Taking a 3 game winning streak into senior night vs. MSU where we are favored and then knowing they just need to close out rutgers to keep the dream alive.One game at a time. NEB win is the key I'd say.
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We're favored against Michigan State?

1. I doubt that the lines have come out yet.
2. I can't imagine that we would be favored. I know that this is the worst Spartans team in years and that they have lost a player for the year, but Illinois isnt that good and Michigan State is still projected as a possible tournament team. It's possible, I guess, but I wouldn't expect to be favored here.

If we beat Nebraska, the rest of your post seems right. It's possible (though I believe unlikely) that we beat Sparty at home - and Rutgers is a winnable game on the road. Illinois has to beat Nebraska first, though.
 
#52      

WesterveltVictoryCigar

WesterveltVictoryCigar
WesterveltVictoryCigar
Cheez said:
We're favored against Michigan State?

1. I doubt that the lines have come out yet.
2. I can't imagine that we would be favored. I know that this is the worst Spartans team in years and that they have lost a player for the year, but Illinois isnt that good and Michigan State is still projected as a possible tournament team. It's possible, I guess, but I wouldn't expect to be favored here.
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Pomeroy has us favored by 2
 
#53      

Se Il Illini

Se Il Illini
Se Il Illini
I think the 5-18 was Gene Bartow's 1 year at Illinois. The following 4 years would be during Coach Henson's time at Illinois.
 
#56      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
Cheez said:
I think that the opponents they played (and where they played them) had more to do with Nebraska losing then some statistical anomaly. You're seeing correlations that don't really exist because you are ignoring factors like home court and, more importantly, talent.
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This is total nit-picking but the correlation does exist. It just don't support a conclusion that the "loss following win" is the cause of the next loss, for exactly the reasons you gave, which means the correlation has little predictive power about what's likely to happen on Sunday.
 
#59      

FeelYourPaign

FeelYourPaign
So Cal
FeelYourPaign
combes said:
You are lucky you weren't an Illinois fan from 1970-78. :)

11-12
14-10
14-10
5-18
8-18
14-13
16-14
13-14

No postseason of any kind.
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My first year on campus was Fall 1974, following that 5-18 season.
Illinois had just finished dead last in the Big Ten with that record . . . and yes, there were 10 teams back then.
I recall this vividly because I bought a program at my first basketball game in October.
They printed the Illinois history for the prior 50 years on the back of the program cover.
In the 50 years, Illinois finished dead last exactly 1 time and it was the prior year. I remember going :eek:
And then thinking, it is going to take 50 years to get this sh!t off of the program cover. How awful !
 
#61      

Cheez

Cheez
Sun Prairie WI
Cheez
WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
Pomeroy has us favored by 2
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This surprises me. I can't argue with you here, but if that's what it is, then that's what it is.

danielb927 said:
This is total nit-picking but the correlation does exist. It just don't support a conclusion that the "loss following win" is the cause of the next loss, for exactly the reasons you gave, which means the correlation has little predictive power about what's likely to happen on Sunday.
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You're right. I got in a rush while typing that at work today and didn't think my words through, but as a math grad I should have explained my point better :)
 
#63      

breadman

B
Herndon, VA
breadman
FeelYourPaign said:
My first year on campus was Fall 1974, following that 5-18 season.
Illinois had just finished dead last in the Big Ten with that record . . . and yes, there were 10 teams back then.
I recall this vividly because I bought a program at my first basketball game in October.
They printed the Illinois history for the prior 50 years on the back of the program cover.
In the 50 years, Illinois finished dead last exactly 1 time and it was the prior year. I remember going :eek:
And then thinking, it is going to take 50 years to get this sh!t off of the program cover. How awful !
Click to expand...

I got you beat by 2 years. That Nick Weatherspoon-led team at 14-10 left a very strong impression on me as to how hard Illinois plays bball. I still carry that impression to this day. And you know what, when I don't see it, I know it. That year I remember they played UCLA in a winter tournament and only lost to them by like 7 points. I followed UCLA's scores the rest of that season and I believe we came the closest to beating them out of all the teams they played. I bet you we scared the living bejeebers out of them that game.
 
#64      

Dan

Dan
Admin
Dan
C5hunvDWQAAe_4j.jpg

https://twitter.com/DPiperScout/status/835539387064659968
 
#67      

mycitymytime

M
mycitymytime
FeelYourPaign said:
Exactly my reaction ! Amazing. He's a good sport for wearing it.
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What do all expect them to do? Quit on the year? They are holding out hope - which is what you want them to do. We shouldn't mock that. Don't quit! Keep reaching ... make Illini fans proud by fighting. I am as down as anyone on the year, coaching and players - BUT I am glad that they are playing well as of late.
 
#68      

FeelYourPaign

FeelYourPaign
So Cal
FeelYourPaign
Its just a matter of style. My personal style, when I'm swimming upstream is not to shout it with a tee shirt, it is to get quiet, get tenacious and go out and do it in a more stealthy way. I still keep reaching, I just don't pound my chest about it until I've proven a reason to do so. As I said, just a matter of personal style.
 
#69      

Dan

Dan
Admin
Dan
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#71      

IlliniRunIn07

IlliniRunIn07
Tampa, FL
IlliniRunIn07
On the extremely off chance we win out and make the tournament, is the ladder going to be inducted into the 2018 HOF?
 
#73      

illini80

illini80
Forgottonia
illini80
"The Ladder to Nowhere" by John Groce (2017)
 
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