Now that I ticked off some people, I need a favor. I thought if Purdue loses and we win that Purdue holds the tie breaker and goes to Indy. Is that not right?
Only way we get in is through 3 way tiebreaker. This requires Iowa and Purdue to lose and us win. Multiple team tiebreaker works using following criterium (if two teams remain after any step, winner of head to head wins division):
1) record amongst tied teams, remove team(s) with lowest record - (each would be 1-1), so move to second tiebreaker
2) Division record (Illini have best record among 3 teams, so Purdue and Iowa eliminated). Illini win division
Only way Purdue beats us is if the tiebreaker rules got it down to head to head, but that is not possible. That is why Iowa is in driver's seat. They hold individual tiebreaker over Purdue if they each tie for division only. That is why Iowa is win and in. Purdue needs Iowa to lose and then win (they would have best record). If both Iowa and Purdue lose and Illini lose, Iowa wins 2 team tiebreaker based on head to head win.
As such, Iowa is the first team to watch, then Purdue second (if Iowa loses). Otherwise Saturday games won't matter if Iowa wins.