I think Trent and Adam are taking far more contested shots than DMFW for different reasons. Trent seems to end up with the ball in his hands late in possessions that haven't given the primary option a good look, especially when he's the primary ball handler and Belo is on the bench. Adam, just IMO, is taking quick shots earlier in the possession and not necessarily when we have numbers. Also, as good as DMFW has been from 3, I think his rep as the 4th or 5th scoring option for the team still sticks. That's all completely non-data driven - just what I think I've seen this year.
Pregame: Illinois at Northwestern, Thursday, January 7th, 8:00pm CT, BTN
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I think Trent and Adam are taking far more contested shots than DMFW for different reasons. Trent seems to end up with the ball in his hands late in possessions that haven't given the primary option a good look, especially when he's the primary ball handler and Belo is on the bench. Adam, just IMO, is taking quick shots earlier in the possession and not necessarily when we have numbers. Also, as good as DMFW has been from 3, I think his rep as the 4th or 5th scoring option for the team still sticks. That's all completely non-data driven - just what I think I've seen this year.
And the beach houses are mostly surrounded by corn and feed lots. We have two rivers. One you can wade across half the year, and the other one I wouldn't get in without wearing a full dry-suit.
Agreed - that's a really pointless filter, especially without a minimum number of games.
I don't know if they're called plays or just when he shakes open but they seem to come at important times, if he would back them up wow that would open up everything. Also I think that Trent defers too much. Agreed he gets it late alot.
Take off those orange colored glasses and we could definitely get worse.
-Ayo regresses to last years 3 pt % (41% to 31%)
-Damonte regresses to last years 3pt % (68% to 31%)
-Trent didn't shoot well last year and that will continue
-MIller is a freshman and won't find his shot consistently this year
-teams start fouling Kofi at a higher rate, especially late in games, and he continues struggling with FTs
I agree that our offense can get even better...but it can definitely regress as well.
I think Williams makes more shots because he very rarely takes a bad shot., a off-balance shot, a forced shot, or a heavily contested. shot. He takes smart shots.
Nope, Damonte will definitely shoot at least 68% from 3 for the season. Why you gotta be so negative?
blackdog
- Champaign
And last game one of his 3s was a catch and shoot in transition while he was on the move, wasnt a good shot. Hes not a Duncan Robinson type shooter where he's going to come off screens and fire away, he really needs to be pretty close to stationary on the catch to make sure his mechanics are good.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I KNOW. My girlfriend is a (COVID ICU!) nurse, and unfortunately she has to miss a lot of games that start before 8:00 pm on days that she works. She has had bad luck lately, but she now has our next four games off and she has been so anxiously waiting for this NU game, haha. It really has felt like forever since we last played, and it's been like four days. I'm spoiled.
Agreed. I think Miller is a more natural shooter. I think if he finds his rhythm , range and confidence I could easily see him getting 20 a night. He has a shot which particularly difficult to defend.
This is exactly correct. He is almost exclusively a dagger shooter because defense collapses around a driver like Ayo or Curbelo. His defender helps and he's there to step into a kicked out 3.
He might get more of the big guys could kick out from the post on occasion. (I'm a little annoyed how bad they are at this)
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Probably about right? We look to be the clearly better team on paper, but a few factors might push the line in NU's favor:
- They are at home. Even without fans, I don't buy there isn't a serious home court advantage. Things like familiarity, comfort and lack of travel fatigue don't just go away.
- They have traditionally seemed to up their game when they play us, especially in Evanston.
- They are backed into a corner coming off of two losses and being booted from the top 25, and they have proven they can beat good teams. Desperate and capable is a bad combo for opponents.
With that said, I think we win by about 8-9.
Correct, opened at -6
billybaroo
- Pebble Beach, CA
Ayo showing a little diva with the hair. LOL!
Ayo and Kofi
Both make trimmed list of 25 mid season list.
www.espn.com
Both make trimmed list of 25 mid season list.
Zags' Suggs, Cards' Jones join Wooden nominees
Gonzaga's Jalen Suggs, Louisville's Carlik Jones and West Virginia's Derek Culver were added to the midseason watch list for the 2021 Wooden Award, which was also reduced from 50 players to 25.
His mom does his hair, so it's alright with me.
JFGsCoffeeMug
BU:1 Trash cans:0
- Chicago
B1G with six players on the list.Ayo and Kofi
Both make trimmed list of 25 mid season list.
Zags' Suggs, Cards' Jones join Wooden nominees
Gonzaga's Jalen Suggs, Louisville's Carlik Jones and West Virginia's Derek Culver were added to the midseason watch list for the 2021 Wooden Award, which was also reduced from 50 players to 25.
Gonzaga with three.
Illinois and Villanova with two.
TMC999
- Not Iowa
This feels right. But I wish I didn’t.
I hope Kofi goes off versus the lab rats. I think if he dunks 2-3 times early on, maybe rattles the rim for effect, their front court may curl up in the fetal position by the first media time out. That’ll bode well. #BeatTheNerds
pruman91
- Paducah, Ky
Offensive efficiency a big plus for No. 12 Illini
Illinois has won three in a row going into game Thursday at Northwestern.
race, space, pace
good article
Most models, most years, have it around 3 pts. IIRC, the range is 2.8 to 3.1 points although I didn't do any serious research. This season, the computers put it right at 2. That feels about right to me --home gym should be worth something, and refs might feel some bias to the home team despite the lack of large crowds.
2 points may not seem like much, but if you look at the swing (+2 home, -2 away) it's obviously important.
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