Pregame: Illinois at Northwestern, Wednesday, January 14th, 7:30pm CT, BTN

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#76      
pweo
#77      
hoopsfan47
History, very recent history, tells us that winning in Evanston in front of what is as much support from a friendly crowd predominantly made up of Illini fans is still a very difficult mountain to climb. Common sense tells us that the Wildcats look at the plethora of arrogant and presumptive Illini comments on the superiority of Illini teams in recent years gives them more than enough incentive to step up their game and prove yet again that games are decided by play on the court and NEVER by idiotic comments on message boards.

These "Nerds" are B1G nerds and can pass, dribble, shoot, and defend at B1G levels, having proved it many times in victories over our guys who we thought would never go down to defeat to Northwestern. But they have lost many times over the past decade.

Hopefully, the Illini players (and I am certain the coaches do) will see past the foolish banter, from either fan base, and understand what is at risk. Yes, there are more accomplished opponents on the horizon, but the next one is the most important of the year. Let's hope our guys are focused on a plan to win this game and feel they must play their best to do just that. History tells us this will be necessary Wed. night, and for every coming game. Playing at the left end of the curve just won't win many games. I feel confident from how we have seen this team progress that they fully understand the challenge and what is at stake.
 
#78      
mysterio2525
21ChampaignSt said:
I thought this was an interesting theory - that it's not so much that teams are becoming more efficient but that the top is becoming stronger, the middle weaker, and thus the top appears more efficient relative to the middle.

So, I looked into it a little more. I looked at points per possession for every cbb team since the 97-98 season. What you'll see below is the median, the average of the top 10 teams and the average of the bottom 10 teams. Additionally, I've indicated when NET took effect as well as immediate transfer eligibility. Finally, just for reference, I've also added the Google search volume for "kenpom" since 2004.

My takeaways are:
A) You're right that the top is more efficient this year relative to the median. It's the largest disparity between the top teams and the median since the data starts in 1998. (It's almost exactly the same as it was in 1998.)
B) There is a clear upward trend in points per possession (a measure of efficiency) for all levels of teams
C) There is a clear spike in PPP that started in 2023 (unsure of the significance of that year)
D) There does seem to be a correlation between increased Kenpom popularity and the recent increase in efficiency
View attachment 46451

KenPom Google volume (the spikes happen each March)

View attachment 46452
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wasn't it in 2023 that the NET was prominently used and also disclosed efficiency metrics as a component in the algorithm. I could be totally wrong but didn't we face a Houston team in 2022 that's was a top 5 kenpom team but seeded as a 5 seed... which is ridiculous. (I'm not even gonna mention a similar seeding travesty from the year before). May just be my PTSD and not the actual timelines
 
#79      
grue2
21ChampaignSt said:
I thought this was an interesting theory - that it's not so much that teams are becoming more efficient but that the top is becoming stronger, the middle weaker, and thus the top appears more efficient relative to the middle.

So, I looked into it a little more. I looked at points per possession for every cbb team since the 97-98 season. What you'll see below is the median, the average of the top 10 teams and the average of the bottom 10 teams. Additionally, I've indicated when NET took effect as well as immediate transfer eligibility. Finally, just for reference, I've also added the Google search volume for "kenpom" since 2004.

My takeaways are:
A) You're right that the top is more efficient this year relative to the median. It's the largest disparity between the top teams and the median since the data starts in 1998. (It's almost exactly the same as it was in 1998.)
B) There is a clear upward trend in points per possession (a measure of efficiency) for all levels of teams
C) There is a clear spike in PPP that started in 2023 (unsure of the significance of that year)
D) There does seem to be a correlation between increased Kenpom popularity and the recent increase in efficiency
View attachment 46451

KenPom Google volume (the spikes happen each March)

View attachment 46452
Click to expand...
Isn't 2023 when they changed the rule on blocking fouls/charges giving more advantage to the offense?
 
#81      
One Man Fast Break
I view this as a must win. Still lack a signature win and have three losses. Can’t be dropping quad 2 road games against opponents you’re better than when chasing the kind of seed to make a big run realistic.
 
#82      
21ChampaignSt
mysterio2525 said:
wasn't it in 2023 that the NET was prominently used and also disclosed efficiency metrics as a component in the algorithm. I could be totally wrong but didn't we face a Houston team in 2022 that's was a top 5 kenpom team but seeded as a 5 seed... which is ridiculous. (I'm not even gonna mention a similar seeding travesty from the year before). May just be my PTSD and not the actual timelines
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Looks like they changed the NET formula for the 2021 season to be more heavily weighted toward efficiency. (So this confirms the committee just hates us 😉) But it's possible there's a lag effect where it took teams a couple years to figure out how to implement more efficient offenses.

Speaking of lag effect - the same could be said for transfer / nil era. It may have taken teams a couple years to figure it out before we started seeing tangible on-court results.
grue2 said:
Isn't 2023 when they changed the rule on blocking fouls/charges giving more advantage to the offense?
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Yes, good call! Could certainly have something to do with it.

One other thing I just noticed (And sorry for taking this off topic. Please move if necessary, Dan.) is that the worst teams in the NCAA today are almost as efficient as the average teams of 1998. This is probably the strongest signal that the way the game is played has changed at a fundamental level.
 
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#83      
Illini in Italy
I just want us to curb stomp the Mildcats and watch their fans cry on TV

1768310689420.gif
 
#84      
Birdus
Stats aside, we should beat this team by 20. Will we? Probably not. They always seem to manage to give us trouble. It would be nice to get the next 3 going into Mackie.
 
#85      
RML
Brosky said:
We need the W to keep our current win streak alive. If I've got my facts straight, beating NU up there would mean a 4-0 road start to the B1G season. Not bad...not bad at all.
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A new take on the old winning formula, Now, it's win all your road games, and split the home games. :)
 
#86      
illinibbcz
Illinois, in a tougher than we would like match-up, 83-69. (I was almost right on in my assessment of the Iowa game, (77-69)).
 
#88      
Piotyr
In an effort to try to calibrate expectations for this game, Torvik projects Illinois by 8.7 points (80-72). Northwestern is winless in the B1G yet and did lose at Rutgers, but they're still not the worst team in the conference (still Rutgers!). Illinois is 3-5 at Northwestern under Brad, and their only convincing victory in that span was a game they trailed by 15 at the half (remember that? They outscored NW 56-13 in the 2nd half). Despite the majority of the Illinois fanbase not considering NW their rival, the NW fanbase does consider Illinois their rival, and they're always amped up for this game.
 
#90      
21ChampaignSt
Piotyr said:
In an effort to try to calibrate expectations for this game, Torvik projects Illinois by 8.7 points (80-72). Northwestern is winless in the B1G yet and did lose at Rutgers, but they're still not the worst team in the conference (still Rutgers!). Illinois is 3-5 at Northwestern under Brad, and their only convincing victory in that span was a game they trailed by 15 at the half (remember that? They outscored NW 56-13 in the 2nd half). Despite the majority of the Illinois fanbase not considering NW their rival, the NW fanbase does consider Illinois their rival, and they're always amped up for this game.
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I've come to terms that any team with a feline mascot will present a tougher test than we'd like.

PSU
Northwestern

Not you, Missouri

Arizona
Kentucky
Houston
 
#91      
Birdus
The first 5 or so minutes of this game will determine whether we sleep walk through it and possibly lose or actually go in with determination and grit and get a double digit win. I take nothing for granted with North Western at their place.
 
#92      
RockfordIllini
We’ve lost 3 in a row up there but we’ve also had some horrible timing. 3 years ago was when the wheels came off on the Skyy Clark Jaden Epps team. Think Skyy packed his stuff and was out the door after that game. 2 years ago we caught them right when Terrence was coming back and he still had quite a bit of rust and couldn’t stay in front of Boo. Last year was our first conference road game for a very young team. Not excuses, they’ve been good, but just saying we haven’t exactly caught them when we’ve been firing on all cylinders the last 3 years.

To me 70 is the magic number. Even if we have a PSU like stinker, we have a ton of ways to get to 70 points. Offensive rebounds, FT shooting, there should be several matchups we can exploit, etc.

Even if you pencil Marinelli in for 30, I think they have a hard time getting to 70 points on us. Plus Ben is a much better and more physical defender this year so hopefully Ben and Mirk can at least make it tough on him.

Maybe famous last words and someone else goes off. I hope not. But I just see a lot more paths to 70 for us than them in this one.

Play our game we should be fine, but I do expect an uncomfortable game at a minimum.
 
#93      
Fighter of the Nightman
Just some random info semi-related to this game for those who find it interesting. :ROFLMAO: I made the claim earlier that NU fans get up for this game, or something to that general effect. Well, I didn't want that claim to stand without evidence, so I looked at NU's average attendance by opponent since it unveiled the renovated Welsh-Ryan Arena about 8 years ago. If a number of sellouts is not in parentheses, it is because the number is zero.

Illinois: 7,039 (7 sellouts)
Indiana: 7,039 (4 sellouts)
Purdue: 6,806 (4 sellouts)
Iowa: 6,678 (3 sellouts)
Michigan: 6,432 (1 sellout)
Michigan State: 6,382 (2 sellouts)
UCLA: 6,099
--- Overall Average: 6,073 ---
Wisconsin: 5,887 (2 sellouts)
Ohio State: 5,739
Minnesota: 5,711 (1 sellout)
Penn State: 5,594 (1 sellout)
Nebraska: 5,468 (1 sellout)
USC: 5,440
Rutgers: 5,178
Maryland: 4,864

So while there are obviously tons of Illini fans attendance each time we play there, other Big Ten fan bases also bring a lot of fans to WRA. I would say 7 sellouts in 7 years (with fans) indicates that the NU fan base also attends the game vs. us more regularly and more intentionally than vs. other Big Ten teams. This also jives with my more subjective perception that their student section and general fan base seems to be more energized and into the game when we come to town than a lot of other times I have seen them on TV.

Hopefully we bring a large and rowdy contingent of Illini fans (seriously, we need the energy that our fans at the UC had, that was fantastic!) to help to negate any rowdiness on the part of the nerds. Jump on them early, get OUR crowd into it and never let them back in the game! I'm going optimistic mode.

#13 Illinois 84
Northwestern 70
 
#96      
pruman91
win by 1 or win by 30......doesn't matter to me.............just win ........................

my totally worthless prediction is .................

Illini 77
mildcats 66

next.........................................

psyc137.gif
 
#99      
LoveIlliniHoops
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Just some random info semi-related to this game for those who find it interesting. :ROFLMAO: I made the claim earlier that NU fans get up for this game, or something to that general effect. Well, I didn't want that claim to stand without evidence, so I looked at NU's average attendance by opponent since it unveiled the renovated Welsh-Ryan Arena about 8 years ago. If a number of sellouts is not in parentheses, it is because the number is zero.

Illinois: 7,039 (7 sellouts)
Indiana: 7,039 (4 sellouts)
Purdue: 6,806 (4 sellouts)
Iowa: 6,678 (3 sellouts)
Michigan: 6,432 (1 sellout)
Michigan State: 6,382 (2 sellouts)
UCLA: 6,099
--- Overall Average: 6,073 ---
Wisconsin: 5,887 (2 sellouts)
Ohio State: 5,739
Minnesota: 5,711 (1 sellout)
Penn State: 5,594 (1 sellout)
Nebraska: 5,468 (1 sellout)
USC: 5,440
Rutgers: 5,178
Maryland: 4,864

So while there are obviously tons of Illini fans attendance each time we play there, other Big Ten fan bases also bring a lot of fans to WRA. I would say 7 sellouts in 7 years (with fans) indicates that the NU fan base also attends the game vs. us more regularly and more intentionally than vs. other Big Ten teams. This also jives with my more subjective perception that their student section and general fan base seems to be more energized and into the game when we come to town than a lot of other times I have seen them on TV.

Hopefully we bring a large and rowdy contingent of Illini fans (seriously, we need the energy that our fans at the UC had, that was fantastic!) to help to negate any rowdiness on the part of the nerds. Jump on them early, get OUR crowd into it and never let them back in the game! I'm going optimistic mode.

#13 Illinois 84
Northwestern 70
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I’m sure the short distance between the two schools comes into play too. Travel expenses are far cheaper, by bus to NW, than a flight to Ann Arbor or most other schools. I’m sure our athletic department appreciates the cost savings, as would most schools
 
#100      
Fighter of the Nightman
Piotyr said:
It's a bit appropo, really, to say that Northwestern may not be Illinois' rival, but Illinois is Northwestern's rival.
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I think Illinois/Northwestern in basketball is very comparable to Tennessee/Vanderbilt and Georgia/Georgia Tech in football as far as dynamics. Want to label it a rivalry because of some "official" or "on-paper" reasons like that it is instate and they are protected opponents? Fine, go ahead ... I have zero issue with that. But the size and type of the fan bases are just so different that you will never have this "House Divided" dynamic like you do in other states like Iowa/Iowa State, Oklahoma/Oklahoma State, Clemson/South Carolina, etc. Add in the larger state school having an almost astronomically better history in all three examples, and it just takes SO much for it to graduate past a big brother/little brother dynamic ... and even then, in a case like Northwestern winning 7 out of 10 vs. Illinois in basketball or Vandy all of a sudden getting good and beating Tennessee in football, you still are never going to get Illini fans to hate Northwestern like they do Iowa, and you are never going to get Tennessee fans to hate Vandy like they hate Alabama.

I have zero problem calling it a rivalry ... but it's never going to be better than our fourth best rivalry in basketball, and when that's the case, you are naturally going to have Illini fans unhappy having NU as our only protected opponent while we are playing schools like Iowa or Indiana just once most years.
 
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