Pregame: Illinois at Oregon, Saturday, October 26th, 2:30pm CT, CBS

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#151      
Homecoming 2019
ChiefGritty said:
We covered 19.5 by the absolute skin of our teeth at PSU, then gave up 49 points at home to Purdue.

I kinda like us to cover that line (this is not a Chip Kelly run-it-up Oregon offense anymore), but it's two touchdowns without breaking a sweat.

Michigan is DRAMATICALLY worse than Oregon. No comparison.
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Beaten without breaking a sweat, perhaps even beaten like a rented mule...?
 
#152      
illini.watcher
EyeoftheIllini said:
Why why why do we go through this every week when people don’t like the point spread. The job of an oddsmaker is not predict the score. His/her job is to predict a line that will bring about as close to an even distribution of bets on the two teams. Oregon money would hit a line of -7 so hard it would be akin to bookie malpractice to set that as a line.

If I’m not an Illini fan, I call your “beat 3 ranked teams” with they all appear to have been overrated. Kansas is 2-5, and given the rest of their schedules and how they’ve been playing, both Neb and Mich might barely make it to bowl eligible. Thankfully I am an Illini fan and loved each of those wins.

Not sure why you’re up in arms over the spread anyway. If it’s that bad, hit it hard and make a bunch of money on Illini. If you aren’t a betting person, then why do you care at all.
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Why do I care at all? RESPECT. 😊
 
#154      
Serious Late
Second place is 1st loser said:
If Vegas is that far off, as the bets come in, the line will correct itself. If a ton of money comes in on us to beat that spread, the line will reduce. If a ton of money comes in on Oregon to cover, it'll move up. Vegas isn't in the business of losing money. They roll with the public sentiment, try to get the bets to 50/50, then make money on the juice.

The bookies REALLY don't care what the spread is, the over/under or who wins. If you want that spread to drop, you along with 500,000 of your friends, put money on us to beat the spread.
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It really doesn't work this way. The book will move when bettors they respect bet into a line. Mattress Mack doesn't move lines. The right $10K will have more influence over a line than just anyone's $500K.
 
#155      
Serious Late
To illustrate this... here is a look at how one-sided bets on any individual game can be.
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Lines aren't established based on the total amount of money bet into them. They are set based on, as @ChiefGritty said, highly sophisticated models. They are then adjusted based on people with even better models betting into them. Not just anyone.
 
#160      
IlliniNash
CogDog said:
I live and work in Eugene. The majority of my clients are Ducks fans and know that I am a massive Illinois fan. At the beginning of the season, I had clients promise me they’d sell me their Ducks tickets to the Illinois game. Now that we are ranked and a potential threat, they’ve rescinded their promise and are going to the game; leaving me pissed and ticketless*! Needless to say, I hope we stun Eugene and the Ducks this upcoming weekend.

*Don’t worry. I bought basketball tickets.

Feel free to reach out if you need suggestions for restaurants and other things to do in the area.
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If you’re familiar with Vivid Seats, they have tickets for $55
 
#162      
ChiefGritty
Mr. Tibbs said:
smart
not sure what other teams have been doing , but the visiting team on these cross country games has been getting hammered
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Some head coaches are coordinators at heart, some are players at heart, fans, pundits, whatever.

Bielema is a football ops guy at heart. He's like the world's most overqualified GA. It's no wonder Belichick liked him.

He would stand up there and talk about process minutiae until the beat writers fell asleep if they'd let him.

And yes, leaving earlier to adjust to the travel is an excellent idea so long as they can get the extra day's work in Eugene okay, a subject BB has thought about in detail without a doubt.
 
#163      
ptgrd23
Indiana won @UCLA 42-13 - RW
NW lost @ WA 24-5
USC lost @ Michigan 27-24
Wi lost @ USC 38-21
MSU lost @ Oregon 31-10
USC lost @Minn 24-17
Michigan lost @ Washington 27-17
Ohio State lost @ Oregon 32-31
PSU won @ USC 33-30 RW
Washington lost @ Iowa 40-16
Minnesota won @ UCLA 21-17 RW

Home team won 8 of 11 games. For all college football 64% per google

out of 10 games maybe 5 could be called blowouts

IU @UCLA 42-13 RW
NW@ WA 24-5 RL
WI@USC 38-21 RL
MSU@OR 31-10 RL
WA @Iowa 40-16 RL

B10 teams travelling west when they lose they lose by more. Overall Pac12 teams record 6-5 vs B10.
My conclusion in OR, OSU, and Penn State are the class of the conference.
Might be some very good teams one level lower - Indiana, Illinois, Washington and maybe Wisconsin.

Bret Rose Bowl record - all close games. I think Bret nows how to play on the west coast. Certainly better than Illini experiences in 1984 and 2008.
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2011 lost 21-19 to TCU
2012 lost 45-38 to OR
2013 lost 20-14 to Stanford (Barry Alvarez coached as Bret had accepted Arkansas job)
 
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#166      
Illini_1979
#167      
eas23
We've played plenty of west coast games over the years. Arizona State and Washington were in the last decade or so, but going back farther we played at Fresno State, Cal, UCLA, San Diego State, Arizona, and even played at Oregon in the 90s before they were the full-on Nike factory they eventually became.
 
#168      
band camp
#171      
Illinell
Illini_1979 said:
The Oregonian with a write-up of the Illini. Not too in-depth. Maybe we'll get more later this week. They have a paywall but as a subscriber I can share it for 7 days.
www.oregonlive.com

Will No. 1 Oregon football turn havoc into takeaways against No. 20 Illinois?: Sneak peek

Illinois has given up 53 tackles for loss, most in the Big Ten, including 20 sacks, yet is plus-seven in turnover margin.
www.oregonlive.com www.oregonlive.com
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Solid, fair write up. We'll need some luck and to hopefully catch them looking past us, but who knows....:)
 
#172      
fuddrules
eas23 said:
We've played plenty of west coast games over the years. Arizona State and Washington were in the last decade or so, but going back farther we played at Fresno State, Cal, UCLA, San Diego State, Arizona, and even played at Oregon in the 90s before they were the full-on Nike factory they eventually became.
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And a win at Washington State.
 
#174      
skyIdub
I'll go ahead and make a similar prediction to the one I did pre- scUM.

If Luke doesn't put the ball on the ground, or in their hands....we absolutely can win this game.

Snag a couple turnovers on D = W.
 
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