Pregame: Illinois at Oregon, Saturday, October 26th, 2:30pm CT, CBS

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#301      
Work Good Job GIF by Jeremy Fisher
 
#303      
First, I'm extremely happy to have suffered my first set-back in last week's prognostication! Just hoping I have similar results this week, because there's no way I can predict fully overcoming a 21-point Vegas line. But I do see a pathway to victory --- BB. I believe I even heard Urban Meyer call Bielema the best coach in the Big 10. (It happened while he was analyzing the fake punt play with DiNardo.) If we can pull it off, I think this just might rank as our biggest win all-time in program history.
Elements of the pathway. I’m sure Bret sees them too.
 
#305      
I was at work at Market Place Mall "watching" along on the dusty af computer at the JCP catalog counter via ESPN updates. As soon as it ended, I got a flood of texts where to be.

Shut down KAMs that night with Vontae Davis (RIP)
The way he got his bell rung in that game, I'm guessing today he would not have been allowed to celebrate like that! I somehow completely forgot about him passing, what a tragedy.
 
#308      
Oregon - correctly noting it is a big game on a national stage - knows this is no time for monochrome silliness.
All things considered, I appreciate the level of respect Illinois is getting coming into this game. Sure, there are the usual handful of fanatics and hot takes saying Oregon will hammer Illinois. There is a part of me that can see that occurring. But the overall vibe of coverage is that Illinois is a good team and Oregon can’t sleepwalk into this game. That’s a big step forward for the perception of the program.
 
#309      
Just to show what a HUGE accomplishment a win would be, this is our Illini vs. top 5 opponents on the road in the previous 40 seasons.

2022: L 19-17 at #3 Michigan
2016: L 41-8 at #3 Michigan
2009: L 49-36 at #5 Cincinnati

2007: W 28-21 at #1 Ohio State
1997: L 41-6 at #4 Ohio State
1995: L 41-3 at #2 Ohio State

1992: T 22-22 at #3 Michigan
1989: W 17-13 at #5 USC (ILL ranked #22)
1986: L 69-13 at #3 Michigan

Relevant to this Saturday's battle, this is only the second time in that whole stretch where we were also ranked ... and we won that one on the West Coast!
 
#310      
This is what I am hoping for.
Be in it with a chance in the fourth quarter.
I am heading to one of our local pubs to watch at least the first half with some friends, so my "baseline" expectation is just for us to look like a real, competitive football team on the road vs. #1. Being in it in the fourth quarter would be a huge achievement, and actually stealing the win would be epic beyond words!
 
#311      
Just to show what a HUGE accomplishment a win would be, this is our Illini vs. top 5 opponents on the road in the previous 40 seasons.

2022: L 19-17 at #3 Michigan
2016: L 41-8 at #3 Michigan
2009: L 49-36 at #5 Cincinnati

2007: W 28-21 at #1 Ohio State
1997: L 41-6 at #4 Ohio State
1995: L 41-3 at #2 Ohio State

1992: T 22-22 at #3 Michigan
1989: W 17-13 at #5 USC (ILL ranked #22)
1986: L 69-13 at #3 Michigan

Relevant to this Saturday's battle, this is only the second time in that whole stretch where we were also ranked ... and we won that one on the West Coast!
Angry Ron Swanson GIF
 
#312      
I am heading to one of our local pubs to watch at least the first half with some friends, so my "baseline" expectation is just for us to look like a real, competitive football team on the road vs. #1. Being in it in the fourth quarter would be a huge achievement, and actually stealing the win would be epic beyond words!
We already have the evidence of the PSU game and how we made them work hard for that close loss. Don't know why we can't put that effort out there one more time.
 
#316      
Just to show what a HUGE accomplishment a win would be, this is our Illini vs. top 5 opponents on the road in the previous 40 seasons.

2022: L 19-17 at #3 Michigan
2016: L 41-8 at #3 Michigan
2009: L 49-36 at #5 Cincinnati

2007: W 28-21 at #1 Ohio State
1997: L 41-6 at #4 Ohio State
1995: L 41-3 at #2 Ohio State

1992: T 22-22 at #3 Michigan
1989: W 17-13 at #5 USC (ILL ranked #22)
1986: L 69-13 at #3 Michigan

Relevant to this Saturday's battle, this is only the second time in that whole stretch where we were also ranked ... and we won that one on the West Coast!
22% success rate. I'll take it!
 
#317      
This is what I am hoping for.
Be in it with a chance in the fourth quarter.
I'm hoping for an unlikely Oregon comedy of errors where everything goes wrong, to throw them out of sorts and quiet the crowd. We hang on for the win despite their comeback.

Illini return the kickoff for a TD. 7-0
Oregon throws a pick six. 14-0
Oregon goes 3 and out.
DB falls down and we score on a long pass. 21-0
Oregon fumbles
We kick a field goal. 24-0
More Oregon turnovers, three more field goals, a final score of 33-31, and Oregon fans cry in the rain (que Whitesnake).
 
#318      
I'm hoping for an unlikely Oregon comedy of errors where everything goes wrong, to throw them out of sorts and quiet the crowd. We hang on for the win despite their comeback.

Illini return the kickoff for a TD. 7-0
Oregon throws a pick six. 14-0
Oregon goes 3 and out.
DB falls down and we score on a long pass. 21-0
Oregon fumbles
We kick a field goal. 24-0
More Oregon turnovers, three more field goals, a final score of 33-31, and Oregon fans cry in the rain (que Whitesnake).
Sooooo, basically the Purdue game with different uniforms?
 
#321      
I am guessing Oregon covers but hopefully I am wrong.
 
#322      
22% success rate. I'll take it!
Yeah, honestly an equally important takeaway is how rare this opportunity is. You don't get to travel to a top 5 opponent's house (much less one that is at the top of the polls!) that often, and it's a golden opportunity for a statement win. The way I see it, getting absolutely embarrassed (e.g., 42-0 or something) is the only truly awful outcome ... that tells the nation that we "don't belong," and most will assume we have benefited from a "meh" schedule and lost handily to the best team we played.

However, the following all allow us to continue the positive momentum of this season, roughly in order (JMO) of how much of an impact the outcome would have:

1. Lose handily but not in a total blowout, and we simply move on. Most people will just think the better team won by as much as they should have, and we just move on to preparing for a huge game with Minnesota. 9-3 remains an INCREDIBLY realistic goal for the year, and that would still be a smashing success, with 10-2 still on the table.

2. Play Oregon really tough and lose in a similar fashion to PSU, where the final score is a bit more lopsided than the score was for most of the game (PSU scored to go up 14 with just 1:55 to play). This likely impresses most of the nation and should give us confidence in running the table (though, obviously, no game is a given ... see Purdue). 10-2 becomes the reasonable goal.

3. Lose a really close one where we had a legitimate chance to win ... think a missed FG while down 2 or Oregon walking it off with a FG ala our Michigan loss in 2022. I think this outcome, combined with running the table to go 10-2 actually gives us an outside shot at the Playoff. It reinforces yet again (but in the loudest and proudest fashion yet) that a Bret Bielema-led Illini program will compete with anybody in the country every single week, and we are here to stay as a Big Ten threat.

4. Frickin' win ... we shock the world, and the whole nation is talking about the Illini as a legitimate CFP contender and maybe even a top 10 team on Monday. The momentum and exposure we would get from this is absolutely immeasurable.

I think anything from a (1.5) to a (3) from that list is an INCREDIBLY important success for our momentum, not just this season but in the long term. (4) would just be unbelievably awesome, and it is difficult to overstate what that would mean to this program. Given many people's uncertainty regarding Zook and the fact that we already had 3 losses going into Columbus in 2007, I think a win in Eugene might be the single most consequential victory this program has had in ... 3 decades at least?! We are underdogs for a reason, but ... MAN, what an opportunity we have in front of us!!
 
#323      
I hope we wear our head-to-toe orange unis and then we'll all have to wear sunglasses in order to watch the game.
I can never remember how that works, but I believe if Oregon says it's fine, then we can wear a non-white jersey. Obviously, when teams like LSU wear white at home, the visiting team gets to wear its color jerseys, no problem. While I will ALWAYS be championing #BPOTR for a big away game at least until we actually get to see it, I would also love busting out an all orange look for this game under the lights if it is at all possible.

On a similar note, I actually kind of love the aesthetic when we have had this similar combo of uniforms for our basketball rivalry games with Iowa:

63dec549454dd.image.jpg
 
#324      
Can Illinois wear O-B-O with Oregon choosing that uniform combo? Forgot how the rules apply.
 
#325      
Yeah, honestly an equally important takeaway is how rare this opportunity is. You don't get to travel to a top 5 opponent's house (much less one that is at the top of the polls!) that often, and it's a golden opportunity for a statement win. The way I see it, getting absolutely embarrassed (e.g., 42-0 or something) is the only truly awful outcome ... that tells the nation that we "don't belong," and most will assume we have benefited from a "meh" schedule and lost handily to the best team we played.

However, the following all allow us to continue the positive momentum of this season, roughly in order (JMO) of how much of an impact the outcome would have:

1. Lose handily but not in a total blowout, and we simply move on. Most people will just think the better team won by as much as they should have, and we just move on to preparing for a huge game with Minnesota. 9-3 remains an INCREDIBLY realistic goal for the year, and that would still be a smashing success, with 10-2 still on the table.

2. Play Oregon really tough and lose in a similar fashion to PSU, where the final score is a bit more lopsided than the score was for most of the game (PSU scored to go up 14 with just 1:55 to play). This likely impresses most of the nation and should give us confidence in running the table (though, obviously, no game is a given ... see Purdue). 10-2 becomes the reasonable goal.

3. Lose a really close one where we had a legitimate chance to win ... think a missed FG while down 2 or Oregon walking it off with a FG ala our Michigan loss in 2022. I think this outcome, combined with running the table to go 10-2 actually gives us an outside shot at the Playoff. It reinforces yet again (but in the loudest and proudest fashion yet) that a Bret Bielema-led Illini program will compete with anybody in the country every single week, and we are here to stay as a Big Ten threat.

4. Frickin' win ... we shock the world, and the whole nation is talking about the Illini as a legitimate CFP contender and maybe even a top 10 team on Monday. The momentum and exposure we would get from this is absolutely immeasurable.

I think anything from a (1.5) to a (3) from that list is an INCREDIBLY important success for our momentum, not just this season but in the long term. (4) would just be unbelievably awesome, and it is difficult to overstate what that would mean to this program. Given many people's uncertainty regarding Zook and the fact that we already had 3 losses going into Columbus in 2007, I think a win in Eugene might be the single most consequential victory this program has had in ... 3 decades at least?! We are underdogs for a reason, but ... MAN, what an opportunity we have in front of us!!
Personally, I think to get the nation to buy into us as a top 10 team and legit CFP contender, we will need to win by at least a touchdown, if not more. Anything else, on like a last second FG or something, then I think most of the nation would think that it was nothing more than a fluke win.
 
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