Pregame: Illinois at Oregon, Thursday, January 2nd, 9:00pm CT, FS1

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#101      
Fighter of the Nightman
OrangeBlue98 said:
Do we usually wear the game uniforms that are in the pregame social media posts? If that's the case, then I really want to see Oregon wear their neon yellow uniforms. I'm going to need everything possible to stay up for this one after waking up at 3:30 to get my wife and son to the airport today, so a neon yellow/bright orange color combination making my eyes bleed may actually help me in the quest to stay awake for the entire game. :)
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As far as I can tell, we only wear our default orange or white in the social media posts. This furthers my quasi-conspiracy theory that the DIA's hands are tied with having to promote our utterly trash regular jerseys due to some contractual obligation from Nike that should have run its course a long time ago ... because I refuse to believe they don't understand that a decided majority of fans (Illini and other) think the throwbacks are infinitely better. :ROFLMAO:

My guess is we packed two for this trip - Flyin' Illini throwbacks for tonight and default orange for Washington.
 
#102      
OrangeBlue98
Birdus said:
The arena will not be half full. THey are a top ten program. THis will be a tough game to win but we have a chance. Someone said this is a MUST win. I don't agree. Still, if we are looking to get a top 3-4 seed we are going to have to start winning these type of games. I would say that we do need to split this road trip for sure. That being said, a win tonight would be huge. We will see soon enough.
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A win tonight would eliminate a LOT of the distaste from the Northwestern game in my opinion.
 
#103      
Fighter of the Nightman
RE: attendance, I'm sure it will still feel like a "tough road game," and it will obviously be against a very, very good team after we have traveled a long way. However, it is kind of interesting how much smaller the West Coast arenas are. Even Blue Blood UCLA has a smaller arena than the legacy Big Ten average, and they draw fewer fans per game than frickin' Northwestern and Penn State a lot of times. You can tell me all you want ~how much there is to do~ in a given area, but your fans are just straight-up dropping the ball if you can't get 10k+ for a ranked team. Then again, as we know with Illini football ... it takes sustained success to "retrain" fans to show up.

By Basketball Regular Season:
Pre-2012 Big Ten (before Nebraska)
Pre-2015 (before Rutgers and Maryland)
Pre-2025 Big Ten (before the West Coast schools)
Post-2024 Big Ten (West Coast schools)

Ohio State: 19,500
Maryland: 17,950
Wisconsin: 17,287
Indiana: 17,222
Illinois: 15,544
Nebraska: 15,500
Penn State: 15,261
Iowa: 14,998
Purdue: 14,876
Michigan State: 14,797
Minnesota: 14,625
UCLA: 13,189
Michigan: 12,707
Oregon: 12,364
USC: 10,258
Washington: 10,000
Rutgers: 8,000
Northwestern: 7,039

So while there are a couple big-time outliers (e.g., NU always having a tiny gym and Maryland adding a big one), the traditional Midwest schools have decidedly bigger arenas and WAY higher attendance. I don't think it is talked about enough nationally how much more of a "thing" basketball is in the Midwest than other regions. It's not much more diluted than the South's affinity for football, it just gets talked about less.
 
#104      
Fighter of the Nightman
OrangeBlue98 said:
A win tonight would eliminate a LOT of the distaste from the Northwestern game in my opinion.
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I would have to figure it MORE than makes up for it. This would be a resume-defining win as things currently stand, and Northwestern looks safe to remain a Quad 1 overtime loss (*knock on wood*). I mean, we have a very good resume right NOW, even with the NU loss. Beating Oregon on the road (and presumably getting by Washington in the same trip) is putting us easily in top 3 seed territory again!
 
#106      
jrichisamazing
There really wasn't anything noteworthy in the early conference games. Only 2 games really jumped out as statement games.

-UCLA W @Oregon
-Michigan W @Wisconsin

Time to get our first statement win!
 
#107      
Zorak
Fighter of the Nightman said:
RE: attendance, I'm sure it will still feel like a "tough road game," and it will obviously be against a very, very good team after we have traveled a long way. However, it is kind of interesting how much smaller the West Coast arenas are. Even Blue Blood UCLA has a smaller arena than the legacy Big Ten average, and they draw fewer fans per game than frickin' Northwestern and Penn State a lot of times. You can tell me all you want ~how much there is to do~ in a given area, but your fans are just straight-up dropping the ball if you can't get 10k+ for a ranked team. Then again, as we know with Illini football ... it takes sustained success to "retrain" fans to show up.

By Basketball Regular Season:
Pre-2012 Big Ten (before Nebraska)
Pre-2015 (before Rutgers and Maryland)
Pre-2025 Big Ten (before the West Coast schools)
Post-2024 Big Ten (West Coast schools)

Ohio State: 19,500
Maryland: 17,950
Wisconsin: 17,287
Indiana: 17,222
Illinois: 15,544
Nebraska: 15,500
Penn State: 15,261
Iowa: 14,998
Purdue: 14,876
Michigan State: 14,797
Minnesota: 14,625
UCLA: 13,189
Michigan: 12,707
Oregon: 12,364
USC: 10,258
Washington: 10,000
Rutgers: 8,000
Northwestern: 7,039

So while there are a couple big-time outliers (e.g., NU always having a tiny gym and Maryland adding a big one), the traditional Midwest schools have decidedly bigger arenas and WAY higher attendance. I don't think it is talked about enough nationally how much more of a "thing" basketball is in the Midwest than other regions. It's not much more diluted than the South's affinity for football, it just gets talked about less.
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This really reinforces to me that realignment has been about football and nothing else.
 
#108      
OrangeBlue98
Fighter of the Nightman said:
RE: attendance, I'm sure it will still feel like a "tough road game," and it will obviously be against a very, very good team after we have traveled a long way. However, it is kind of interesting how much smaller the West Coast arenas are. Even Blue Blood UCLA has a smaller arena than the legacy Big Ten average, and they draw fewer fans per game than frickin' Northwestern and Penn State a lot of times. You can tell me all you want ~how much there is to do~ in a given area, but your fans are just straight-up dropping the ball if you can't get 10k+ for a ranked team. Then again, as we know with Illini football ... it takes sustained success to "retrain" fans to show up.

By Basketball Regular Season:
Pre-2012 Big Ten (before Nebraska)
Pre-2015 (before Rutgers and Maryland)
Pre-2025 Big Ten (before the West Coast schools)
Post-2024 Big Ten (West Coast schools)

Ohio State: 19,500
Maryland: 17,950
Wisconsin: 17,287
Indiana: 17,222
Illinois: 15,544
Nebraska: 15,500
Penn State: 15,261
Iowa: 14,998
Purdue: 14,876
Michigan State: 14,797
Minnesota: 14,625
UCLA: 13,189
Michigan: 12,707
Oregon: 12,364
USC: 10,258
Washington: 10,000
Rutgers: 8,000
Northwestern: 7,039

So while there are a couple big-time outliers (e.g., NU always having a tiny gym and Maryland adding a big one), the traditional Midwest schools have decidedly bigger arenas and WAY higher attendance. I don't think it is talked about enough nationally how much more of a "thing" basketball is in the Midwest than other regions. It's not much more diluted than the South's affinity for football, it just gets talked about less.
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In general, basketball arenas are getting smaller. Oregon's arena was built in 2011 and is relatively small. USC's arena was built in 2006 and is just over 10,000. Texas' arena seats 10,700 or so for basketball (but could be opened up to 16,000 if necessary), while Baylor's new arena seats 7,500 for a team that recently won a national championship. When we redid AH/SFC, we reduced capacity.

I think teams now would rather have smaller, louder, more intimate home court settings than more capacity and the possibility of not filling that capacity. Can't really say I blame them.
 
#110      
Fighter of the Nightman
I know this doesn't really mean much, but it's kind of crazy that the ESPN app gives us about a 47% chance to win. Usually no matter who you are, if you are playing on the road vs. a top 10 team, your win percentage is below 40%.
 
#111      
DeeIL89
We let one Quad 1A win get away from us with the Tennessee game so lets rectify that with some ducks hunting tonight. One thing I would like to see tonight is better late game execution. And of course more Morez.
 
#112      
Fighter of the Nightman
DeeIL89 said:
We let one Quad 1A win get away from us with the Tennessee game so lets rectify that with some ducks hunting tonight. One thing I would like to see tonight is better late game execution. And of course more Morez.
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Yep, while I think we all would have loved to see the scene had we knocked off #1 Tennessee, I think this might even be a better win as far as our resume goes ... at least on paper, and at least right now. IIRC, the Committee still values a good road and neutral court record. We are 2-1 on neutral courts and 0-1 on the road. If we could get to 2-1 on the road after this week and add a Quad 1A road win, our resume would look top 10.
 
#113      
Uihoop2023!
fuggles said:
I've seen minutes of a couple games. Their 7ft big guy, Bittle, former McD, leading scorer is a tough out. This is going to be an interesting match up for us. We haven't faced this quality size. Big Z is not this good. imo. Also they spread it around. 6 guys with double digit points. I will be there watching. Should be a good game.
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Who cares how good big Z is ? An Arkansas player will have no effect on this game
 
#114      
EyeoftheIllini
jamie13197 said:
They have played a bunch of cupcakes. 90%. I love our team, but have huge concerns with our rotation, minutes, and 40-3 pt shots each game. So much talent and still disgusted that Ty Rodgers red shirt. He is 8pts, 5 boards, and good pit bull defender. Better than 3 of our current 9 man rotation. I just don't get it!
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I get a kick out of posts like this. Oregon is 4-1 in Q1 games, 2-0 in Q2 games, so 7 games against Q2 or higher. Illini are 2-3 and 1-0 respectively, so only 6 games against Q2 or higher. Oregon’s SOS rank that I saw is 10 and noncon SOS 14. Illini’s ranks are 75 and 136 respectively. The average NET of teams Oregon has beat is 129 and 15 for those it has lost to. Illini have beaten teams with an average NET of 203 and lost to those with an average NET of 18.

People on here seem convinced that the Illini have played a juggernaut of a schedule and it just isn’t the case. Yes, on the top end it has been very good (but we lost to the two best teams), but the rest of the noncon schedule has been cupcakes galore. Oh, and one of those top end teams Illini lost to, Oregon beat.

Would be a great win to get for Illini, and they certainly have better than a puncher’s chance. But Oregon’s resume is every good if not better than Illini’s.
 
#115      
EyeoftheIllini
Old Farm Illini said:
I’d be shocked if the arena is even at half capacity for a break game.
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Well last year for comparable game (break, weekday game) they drew almost 9,000 against a 6-5 USC team. I think capacity is a shade over 12,000. Football loss hangover might hurt some, but Illinois is probably best game on its B1G home schedule, so I’d stay away from water.
 
#116      
Piotyr
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I know this doesn't really mean much, but it's kind of crazy that the ESPN app gives us about a 47% chance to win. Usually no matter who you are, if you are playing on the road vs. a top 10 team, your win percentage is below 40%.
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That's mostly because ESPN's BPI metric has Illinois as the 12th best team and Oregon as the 23rd.

The AP poll is really screwed up right now in comparison to efficiency metrics.
 
#117      
NarrowJ
Oregon's starting backcourt is shooting 36% overall and 29% from three but that looks to be a 1/3rd season small-ish sample size issue as both guys have good numbers in previous seasons.

People are going to say I'm insane for this, but I think they are better than Tennessee.
 
#118      
Piotyr
NarrowJ said:
Oregon's starting backcourt is shooting 36% overall and 29% from three but that looks to be a 1/3rd season small-ish sample size issue as both guys have good numbers in previous seasons.

People are going to say I'm insane for this, but I think they are better than Tennessee.
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Tennessee has played just one game this season that ended closer than 15 points. The only metric in which Oregon is better than Tennessee is wins above bracket, which is purely from the Alabama win.

Heck, Illinois has better metrics than Oregon, and if you flip the Tennessee game from a 2 point loss to a 2 point victory they'd have the same resume, effectively.
 
#119      
NarrowJ
Piotyr said:
Tennessee has played just one game this season that ended closer than 15 points. The only metric in which Oregon is better than Tennessee is wins above bracket, which is purely from the Alabama win.

Heck, Illinois has better metrics than Oregon, and if you flip the Tennessee game from a 2 point loss to a 2 point victory they'd have the same resume, effectively.
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Yes, absolutely. 4 points likely doesn't make a difference at all in metrics.

I still think Oregon is the better team, after watching both a handful of times this year. I'm going to get beat up for that take like I admitted immediately, because metrics.
 
#123      
OrangeBlue98
21ChampaignSt said:
I've never waited this many waking hours to watch an Illinois game.
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Trying to not play "can you top this", but I might have everyone here beat given I was up at 3:20 AM to get my wife and son to the airport for a 6:30 AM flight this morning. Assuming a 9:05 CT tipoff, that would be just shy of 18 hours of waiting from the time I woke up. But I'm also betting I don't get anywhere close to the end of this game before ending up asleep on the couch with a beer on the coffee table and a bag of chips on the floor in front of said couch. :)
 
#124      
EyeoftheIllini
NarrowJ said:
Oregon's starting backcourt is shooting 36% overall and 29% from three but that looks to be a 1/3rd season small-ish sample size issue as both guys have good numbers in previous seasons.

People are going to say I'm insane for this, but I think they are better than Tennessee.
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Bamba has shot poorly in 3 games I’ve seen. Don’t remember him being that bad a shooter when with WSU. That’s another reason that Barthelemy, who I mentioned in an earlier post, is so important to the Ducks off the bench. Shoots about 47% from 3. Not a high volume shooter overall, but he’ll take the shots when needed.
 
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