Pregame: Illinois vs Central Michigan, Saturday, December 10th, 2:00pm CT, BTN Plus

haasi · Dec 7, 2016

IlliniTargetAcquired said:
They are every bit as bad as that number suggests defensively. Have to stop their 2 guards. Do that and we win. They don't have anyone else that I could really see going off on us.

Going to take a massive effort from Abrams and someone else to keep in front of those guys. One of those games where Nunn would have been really valuable. I hope that we get seriously good defense out of Abrams/JCL and don't have to resort to trying to sic Tate on these guys.

WestIllini · Dec 7, 2016

haasi said:
Going to take a massive effort from Abrams and someone else to keep in front of those guys. One of those games where Nunn would have been really valuable. I hope that we get seriously good defense out of Abrams/JCL and don't have to resort to trying to sic Tate on these guys.

Agreed. I really didnt think we'd miss him all that much but now that I think about it we probably win the Winthrop game with him and who knows, maybe even look somewhat respectable in the WVU game. I really thought JCL would be farther along in his development by now. He'll get there eventually but it is a bit concerning how one dimensional he is at this point.

EfremWinters84 · Dec 7, 2016

Typically a zone won't work effectively against great shooting guards.......especially a porous zone like ours. I'd put our two best (and quickest -- TJL?) defensive outside players on Keene/Brayson, combined with some tough "help defense". Based upon what I've read, I don't think anyone else from their roster can beat us.

ILL -- 86
CMU -- 72

WestIllini · Dec 7, 2016

Did a bit of research on CMU
1. They lost to the only two teams they've played that are really any good. St. Bonaventure beat them by 31 and AR Little Rock beat them by 12.

2. Keene is their top guy, averaging 31.4 PPG to go along with 5 APG. Braylon Rayson is next averaging 17 PPG. After these two it's really just Cecil Williams (9.3 PPG) and David DiLeo (8.9 PPG)

3. They are not deep at all. If either of Keene or Rayson get into foul trouble they're in big trouble. We need to utilize our deep bench here and run run run.

4. Besides Keene and a guy named Blake Hibbitts (2.7 PPG) they do not shoot the 3 ball particularly well.

5. It looks like the tallest player in their starting lineup is only 6'8. Maybe go small to start off the game. DJW needs to play this game.

6. If I'm Groce I'm taking the best defender on the team, I don't care if it's a walk on, and telling him to live in Keene's jersey for 40 minutes. Make him as uncomfortable as possible early and try to throw him off his game. Guard Rayson hard too and make these other guys beat you.

It may be unlikely but if we can somehow shut down Keene and Rayson, we're looking at a nice 30+ point win. These two are really all they've got. Let's head into the United Center at 8-3. Go Illini :illinois:

whovous · Dec 7, 2016

CMU's first three opponents from their ESPN page:
IKO (117-53)
TNTC (86-74)
MAR (107-58)

If you can name all three without cheating, you are a true basketball junkie.

CMU scored more than 80 in all eight of their wins. In their two losses, they scored 71 and 79.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Dec 7, 2016

They really live and die by the 3, more than half of their FGA are from behind the line. Very fast tempo, too, so it looks like the first open 3 they get will be going up. Have to be able to pick these guys up in transition D.

Newman · Dec 7, 2016

whovous said:
CMU's first three opponents from their ESPN page:
IKO (117-53)
TNTC (86-74)
MAR (107-58)

If you can name all three without cheating, you are a true basketball junkie.

CMU scored more than 80 in all eight of their wins. In their two losses, they scored 71 and 79.

I like college basketball but I knew all of them because of sheer luck. I have family in Kokomo and I've watched a lot of OVC games. Marquette was easy.

Unlike others on this page, I am not concerned about Central Michigan. Their top two players can go off for 30 points each and we'd still be capable of beating them by double digits. They're so bad defensively. We aren't losing to two 5'7 ish guards. I know they're listed at 5'9" btw.. but so was Ahmad Starks.

frozenrope9190 · Dec 7, 2016

MAR = Marist? I sincerely doubt they beat Marquette by 49.

TriCityBurbs · Dec 7, 2016

Newman said:
I like college basketball but I knew all of them because of sheer luck. I have family in Kokomo and I've watched a lot of OVC games. Marquette was easy.

Unlike others on this page, I am not concerned about Central Michigan. Their top two players can go off for 30 points each and we'd still be capable of beating them by double digits. They're so bad defensively. We aren't losing to two 5'7 ish guards. I know they're listed at 5'9" btw.. but so was Ahmad Starks.

We lost to one 5"7ish guard..

Newman · Dec 7, 2016

frozenrope9190 said:
MAR = Marist? I sincerely doubt they beat Marquette by 49.

Ahh good catch, I assumed it was a loss. Definitely not Marquette. I just looked it up, I never would have guessed that last one.

frozenrope9190 · Dec 7, 2016

Is there a way I could attach an xls sheet to these boards? I have been tinkering with a spreadsheet that shows packs of college hoops data, but don't know how to do it.

ChiefIllini · Dec 7, 2016

TA, JCL, DJW, MH, LB. That lineup needs to get 10+ minutes against this team.

If we play big, then we need to actually feed the bigs. Thought we did an OK job with UIPUI wrt that. If we do that and aggresively attack the rim, we should draw some fouls hopefully make getting easy inside buckets a common occurrence. Will help down the strech if the games close...

FollowTisdale · Dec 7, 2016

WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
Not sure what team you're watching, but we're not overly athletic. And there certainly isn't a big gap there especially in the area we struggle with, quickness with these smaller mid major teams.

I was mostly just wanting to get a dig in on Tate, who should never see the floor outside of Kevin Buridinie (sic) minutes. I'll try and make a better one...

The only sport I know about advance statistics in is baseball. And I'll make it locally personal. In baseball, just like basketball, defense matters and is very, very close to being as objectively measurable as offense is. Do you know what kind of wRC+ Schwarber is going to have to consistently put up, with his big negative LF defense, to make him an above replacement player? Somewhere in the 160 to 180 range. You know what kind of hitters do/ have done that consistently? Pujols, Bonds, Trout, Harper... Kyle Schwarber they are not.

Reverse that for Tate. Do you know what kind of defense he's going to have to put up to make up for being a negative on offense to the point of his defender being able to completely forget about him? Naismith, College Basketball HOF, Defensive POY type defense.

TheFlyingIllini1317 · Dec 7, 2016

whovous said:
CMU's first three opponents from their ESPN page:
IKO (117-53)
TNTC (86-74)
MAR (107-58)

If you can name all three without cheating, you are a true basketball junkie.

CMU scored more than 80 in all eight of their wins. In their two losses, they scored 71 and 79.

TNTC = Tennessee Tech?
MAR = Marist? I feel Marshall wouldn't lose that badly
IKO: Have no idea

IlliniInTexas · Dec 7, 2016

I think the big mistake that Groce made with Keon Johnson was that he kept Tate on him almost the entire second half/OT. I know that Jaylon hustled his !!! off and mostly did a good job, but good players can make adjustments against a single defender, evidenced by that that up and under after the spin at the end of regulation.

I really want to see Groce switch up defenders on this guy. Switch off between size and speed, between Abrams, TJL, and DJW. Maybe even throw in an MH in there for a few possessions. If we can keep one guy to 30 (inefficiently), and the rest of the team to 30, we win big.

whovous · Dec 7, 2016

Newman said:
I like college basketball but I knew all of them because of sheer luck. I have family in Kokomo and I've watched a lot of OVC games. Marquette was easy.

Yeah, too easy

. That was my first guess as well. Getting the other two is still pretty good.

The one thing that worries me about this game is that CMU takes more than half of their shots from three. We hit about five percent more from three than does CMU, but they take almost 60% more shots from that range.

Our defense is weak in a great many ways, but defending the three is one of our worst. Then again, the CMU defense makes ours look like the B1G All-Defensive team.

Have the Illini ever played in a game where both teams scored more than a hundred?

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Dec 7, 2016

whovous said:
Have the Illini ever played in a game where both teams scored more than a hundred?

You've forgotten last year's epic game in Piscataway already?

StateFarmCenter · Dec 7, 2016

whovous said:
CMU's first three opponents from their ESPN page:
IKO (117-53)
TNTC (86-74)
MAR (107-58)

If you can name all three without cheating, you are a true basketball junkie.

CMU scored more than 80 in all eight of their wins. In their two losses, they scored 71 and 79.

IKO no idea. TNTC I want to say Tennessee Tech. Never seen it abbreviated it like that though. Tennessee Technical College I guess makes sense and I'm guessing the same school. MAR obviously isn't Marquette if they crushed them like that. I'd guess Marist or UT-Martin.

DallasIllini · Dec 7, 2016

Does Alex Austin get some minutes against Central Mich to help defend Marcus Keene? I seem to recall AA doing a nice job defending Kris Dunn last year during the Providence game. We were a tip-in away from winning that game.

Not sure if Tate and JCL (particularly JCL) have the lateral quickness to stay in front of Keene and Rayson. I like a guard rotation consisting of Abrams, Hill, Tate (in small spurts), TJL and AA to help defend Keene and Rayson. JCL gets more minutes at the 3 and when Hill is in, defends the 3. DJW and Leron could be the answer at the 4/5 spots when having to switch on screens.

We need to learn how to effectively use our depth to mitigate bad match-ups. This should be a good test for Groce and his staff. Can't believe I'm saying this about Central Michigan but that is the reality we live in.

whovous · Dec 7, 2016

WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
You've forgotten last year's epic game in Piscataway already?

110-101 in triple overtime. How quickly I forget!

Have we ever played a game where both teams topped 100 in regulation?

SuperMetroid · Dec 7, 2016

whovous said:
110-101 in triple overtime. How quickly I forget!

Have we ever played a game where both teams topped 100 in regulation?

Against LSU during the Flyin' Illini season I believe

westcoastillini · Dec 7, 2016

SuperMetroid said:
Against LSU during the Flyin' Illini season I believe

Dale brown (lsu coach) called that Illini team the finest collection of athletes he ever saw. He was thankful Henson called off the dogs otherwise we would have scored 150

illiniknight · Dec 7, 2016

TriCityBurbs said:
Keene and Brayson combined for 70 points tonight. I think this game might put the nail in the coffin for our nonconference season. Welp.

Good, to see they got them last night. Hopefully they got it out of their system and will return to earth when they play us.

DoctorOrange · Dec 7, 2016

Can someone please explain to me why our offense doesn't get us good 3pt shots? We have two great 3pt shooters on the team (Abrams, JCL) yet they don't seem to be able to get open looks even against weak competition. I've never been able to figure out Groce's offense, but at some point you'd think he'd want to play to our strengths.

whovous · Dec 7, 2016

We shoot ~39.5% from three. That is not all that terrible.