Pregame: Illinois vs Colgate, Sunday, December 17th, 12:00pm CT, BTN

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#52      

altgeld88

altgeld88
Arlington, Virginia
altgeld88
CDRUSN said:
I'll take our wins against FAU in the Garden and the beatdown of Rutgers in Piscataway against Colgate's victory over the Fighting Syrup Gatherers of mighty Vermont.
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Coincidentally, the Vermont FSGs are 136 in KenPom. Colgate is 137. Which makes sense. When you're gathering (and consuming) a lot of maple syrup, you need Colgate close at hand.

I promise this I won't do this again.

Simpsons - grandpa-abe-exit.gif
 
#58      

aaeismacgychel

A
aaeismacgychel
hodgesonfire said:
One comment about next: Illinois by 20 in a “get right” game as we had our worst shooting and worst officiated game and still hung tight so look out Colgate and I never make those kinds of predictions.
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I'd love to see it, but Colgate doesn't have a "get right" feel to them. They got beat bad on the road at Zona and to Yale on a neutral court, but they've played everyone else tough. They love to slow down the game and are great and clearing the boards and not giving 2nd chance opportunities. Expect them to play us tough.

In my opinion, this game screams trap as it's a T3 home game against a solid opponent lodged between tough road games and Braggin Rights. Plus we're far and away the best opponent remaining on Colgate's schedule, and their team is projected to go 14-4 in conference this year. I would be shocked if Colgate doesn't come out strong in this one. This is definitely not a game to show up sleepwalking and this is not an easy team to come back against. Show up ready to play, blitz them early, and force them to play from behind.
 
#60      

thefalcon5

T
thefalcon5
aaeismacgychel said:
I'd love to see it, but Colgate doesn't have a "get right" feel to them. They got beat bad on the road at Zona and to Yale on a neutral court, but they've played everyone else tough. They love to slow down the game and are great and clearing the boards and not giving 2nd chance opportunities. Expect them to play us tough.

In my opinion, this game screams trap as it's a T3 home game against a solid opponent lodged between tough road games and Braggin Rights. Plus we're far and away the best opponent remaining on Colgate's schedule, and their team is projected to go 14-4 in conference this year. I would be shocked if Colgate doesn't come out strong in this one. This is definitely not a game to show up sleepwalking and this is not an easy team to come back against. Show up ready to play, blitz them early, and force them to play from behind.
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Yeah Colgate isn’t your average cupcake. In fact they are 3 spots ahead of Oakland in kenpom and that game didn’t exactly scream get right.

That being said we’re playing much better than we were in my opinion and we should win handily. I think this team will be hungry after Tennessee and before braggin rights.
 
#61      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
IlliDan said:
Coleman's ability to hit from 3 is essential for this offense to thrive.Otherwise opposing center is able to play off clogging driving lanes resulting in surplus 3 attempts.His inability to finish at rim also limits kickout chances.Need CH to command respect from distance.
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Agreed. I don't remember the last player I have seen whose 3-point attempts look literally flawless going in the hoop or absolutely terrible depending on the situation quite to the extent of Coleman, haha. Maybe Da'Monte? FWIW, the sample size this year is so small, but these are Hawkins' five best and five worst 3-point shooting games last year:

67% vs. Wisconsin on 9 attempts (W)
63% vs. Eastern Illinois on 8 attempts (W)
50% vs. Syracuse on 2 attempts (W)
50% at Minnesota on 2 attempts (W)
40% vs. Virginia (Vegas) on 5 attempts (L)

Conversely, these are some VERY specific games where if he could have just turned in a decent performance hitting 3-pointers, we would have turned losses into wins:

0% at Iowa on 5 attempts ... we lost by 2.
0% vs. Penn State (BTT) on 2 attempts ... we lost by 3.
0 attempts at Indiana ... we lost by 3.


That might not sound that important, but that is THREE more Quad 1 wins and pushes our Selection Sunday record to 23-9. That very likely has us fighting for a #6 seed and completely transforms our NCAAT outlook, IMO.

As I said in another thread, if this squad is shooting the three well, they can beat literally anyone ... just too many weapons and too good of a defense on the other end. The trick for us is shooting the three well without becoming a team that falls in love with it even when it isn't working like last year.
 
#63      

hoopsfan47

H
hoopsfan47
Eternal Optimist said:
Good for you! Last game I saw in person Brian Cook was playing. That probably borderline makes me not really a fan. ;)
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Having watched hundreds of games on TV since the days of Govoner Vaughn, I must admit that the last Illini game I attended in Assembly Hall was in 1973 when the Illini played, and beat, a 4-0 Detroit team coached by Dick Vitale. Two fellow graduates of my high school (and I wish had been teammates when I played) started for the Illini that night.
 
#66      

hodgesonfire

H
hodgesonfire
aaeismacgychel said:
I'd love to see it, but Colgate doesn't have a "get right" feel to them. They got beat bad on the road at Zona and to Yale on a neutral court, but they've played everyone else tough. They love to slow down the game and are great and clearing the boards and not giving 2nd chance opportunities. Expect them to play us tough.

In my opinion, this game screams trap as it's a T3 home game against a solid opponent lodged between tough road games and Braggin Rights. Plus we're far and away the best opponent remaining on Colgate's schedule, and their team is projected to go 14-4 in conference this year. I would be shocked if Colgate doesn't come out strong in this one. This is definitely not a game to show up sleepwalking and this is not an easy team to come back against. Show up ready to play, blitz them early, and force them to play from behind.
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Definitely don’t want the team to take it easy, but feel this will be a game where multiple players shoot well. Winning by 20 is a bit meatball, but unlike last year, this team still hasn’t peaked and has the highest ceiling since the finals team. IMO, this includes the Ayo teams. This team also has a lower floor than the Ayo teams, because Koffe was a force of nature. But when the team is on they have 4 shooters and a distributor who can rebound on the floor and 5 defenders. That hasn’t happened here in a long time. No reason to think they can’t win any game they play this year especially when they have they have match ups to exploit.
 
#68      

blackdog

blackdog
Champaign
blackdog
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Agreed. I don't remember the last player I have seen whose 3-point attempts look literally flawless going in the hoop or absolutely terrible depending on the situation quite to the extent of Coleman, haha. Maybe Da'Monte? FWIW, the sample size this year is so small, but these are Hawkins' five best and five worst 3-point shooting games last year:

67% vs. Wisconsin on 9 attempts (W)
63% vs. Eastern Illinois on 8 attempts (W)
50% vs. Syracuse on 2 attempts (W)
50% at Minnesota on 2 attempts (W)
40% vs. Virginia (Vegas) on 5 attempts (L)

Conversely, these are some VERY specific games where if he could have just turned in a decent performance hitting 3-pointers, we would have turned losses into wins:

0% at Iowa on 5 attempts ... we lost by 2.
0% vs. Penn State (BTT) on 2 attempts ... we lost by 3.
0 attempts at Indiana ... we lost by 3.


That might not sound that important, but that is THREE more Quad 1 wins and pushes our Selection Sunday record to 23-9. That very likely has us fighting for a #6 seed and completely transforms our NCAAT outlook, IMO.

As I said in another thread, if this squad is shooting the three well, they can beat literally anyone ... just too many weapons and too good of a defense on the other end. The trick for us is shooting the three well without becoming a team that falls in love with it even when it isn't working like last year.
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I've been noticing this more and more with Coleman but his problem is his footwork and balance are....not good. People complain about the stepback and the reason his is so bad is that he doesn't really look on balance when he does it. Same with when he drives or posts up, his balance and footwork just don't look very comfortable or effective. Its not something we think about or notice a lot but that's really something that separates the great players.
 
#69      

thefalcon5

T
thefalcon5
blackdog said:
I've been noticing this more and more with Coleman but his problem is his footwork and balance are....not good. People complain about the stepback and the reason his is so bad is that he doesn't really look on balance when he does it. Same with when he drives or posts up, his balance and footwork just don't look very comfortable or effective. Its not something we think about or notice a lot but that's really something that separates the great players.
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I think hesitation causes him to be off balance. Shot fakes also effect his balance.

But in general he’s always looked awkward out there.
 
#72      

Grandpa

G
Grandpa
SkyysNotFalling said:
Underwood has never started a season 8-2 or better at Illinois.

Through 10 games:
2023: 7-3
2022: 7-3
2021: 7-3
2020: 7-3
2019: 3-7
2018: 7-3

2024: ?
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It's time! Maybe that change will get us to the second weekend!
 
#73      

BretMyBeachHouse

B
BretMyBeachHouse
hoopsfan47 said:
Having watched hundreds of games on TV since the days of Govoner Vaughn, I must admit that the last Illini game I attended in Assembly Hall was in 1973 when the Illini played, and beat, a 4-0 Detroit team coached by Dick Vitale. Two fellow graduates of my high school (and I wish had been teammates when I played) started for the Illini that night.
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Spencer haywood on that team?
 
#74      

cjw1901

C
cjw1901
thefalcon5 said:
I think hesitation causes him to be off balance. Shot fakes also effect his balance.

But in general he’s always looked awkward out there.
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Right, lots of good comments on Coleman's 3pt shooting here. A quick summary on last season for CH on 3pt shooting is 28%. The same stat for this season is 21%. So, yeah, a little off, so far, this season, but heading for another underwhelming season-long season average which is really the best low-noise estimate we have each season for 3pt shooting.

But notice what this stat doesn't show (unless you run the numbers, or even take the stats, yourself). It doesn't show home vs away, most guys shoot a better at home, so expect that from CH too. It also doesn't show wide-open 3 (say nobody in 5' at the time of the release) vs contested 3 (at least one defender inside that distance), yet about everybody including CH shoots better when wide open. It doesn't show from-how-far. Frustratingly, CH often shoots from about 4' beyond the 20'9" 3-pt line. So, he makes his 3s about 19% longer. (Coleman, don't get to 100% longer or you're at half court, since 5.25+20.75+20.75=46.75~=47=94/2, where the center of the basket to the baseline is 5.25 ft.) Of course, CH shoots way better when he is wide open, and he moves close to the 3pt line.

Underwood simply calls this "good shots", which I don't mind, just to keep it simple. But Underwood and his assistants should speak up when CH backs off the 3pt line and launches from 25'. Yeah, that isn't a "good shot" anymore, even if CH is open. Instead, CH should move in, expect fewer open looks, and do more 3pt fakes and drives. I think he could shoot close to 33% on this season (which would be the best in his career), if he only takes wide-open 3s near the line. Obviously, this does amount to fewer shots, so he's going to have to drive more when it's not there, or dish to his better-shooting teammates (all scholarship players on the IL roster, since CH shoots just 32% from the field on the season right now).
 
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