Pregame: Illinois vs Eastern Illinois, Monday, November 6th, 7:00pm CT, B1G+

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#51      
cjw1901
The outcome of this game against EIU is foregone conclusion, but I wonder if we might see a few hints of troubles in the stats of this game. For example, in last year's game, Sky Clark had 5 TOs, and RJ Melendez went 0-5 from 3. Yeah, that was telling, since Sky could handle the pressure that season, and RJ had consistency issues as a perimeter shooter that season. In other words, we might be able to learn a few things from this year's game too.
 
#52      
aaeismacgychel
cjw1901 said:
The outcome of this game against EIU is foregone conclusion, but I wonder if we might see a few hints of troubles in the stats of this game. For example, in last year's game, Sky Clark had 5 TOs, and RJ Melendez went 0-5 from 3. Yeah, that was telling, since Sky could handle the pressure that season, and RJ had consistency issues as a perimeter shooter that season. In other words, we might be able to learn a few things from this year's game too.
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Anything can happen in any given game, but coming out playing good team basketball is what our benchmark should be for this game. There are sure to be mistakes and things that will need cleaning up, but that's what these early season games are for. Speaking of, I was really interested to see how the Illini (possibly Ty) would do defending their senior PG in Kinyon Hodges, who if my memory serves correctly, did cause us some issues with his speed last year, but, looks like he was kicked off the team. Sort of a shame as I thought he would be a good test for Ty and to see how far he's come from last year in guarding speedier players in a fairly safe environment.
 
#54      
sulli
aaeismacgychel said:
This is one thing I do have a complaint about with Brad and scheduling in recent years. While he has done a fine job of scheduling the high quality games, he really needs to do a better job at scheduling the fattening cupcakes (300+ ranked) where no matter the margin of victory or efficiency stats, there is no way to overcome how badly they weigh down the SOS and Quality of Competition metrics. This year alone we have 5 opponents ranked 300+ and a 6th who isn't all that far off! There is absolutely no need for this considering there is very little difference in the ability of a P5 team to beat a 200-250 ranked team at home vs. a 300+ team. I've performed the mathematical breakdown on here before of why playing 300+ ranked opponents is so bad, as no matter what you do in those games it only negatively impacts your efficiency metrics and resume due to the quality of opponent hit, so I won't do it again, but just to compare coaches:

Brad:
2024: 5 300+, 1 250+
2023: 6 300+
2022: 2 300+, 1 250+
2021: 1 300+, 1 250+
2020: 2 300+, 2 250+
2019: 1 300+
2018: 3 300+, 1 250+

Groce:
2017: 1 300+
2016: 2 300+
2015: 3 300+, 2 250+
2014: 1 300+, 3 250+
2013: 1 250+

Weber
2012: 2 300+, 2 250+
2011: 1 300+, 1 250+
2010: 2 300+
2009: 1 300+, 2 250+
2008: None
2007: 1 300+, 2 250+
2006: 3 300+, 2 250+
2005: 2 300+
2004: 2 300+

Generally, the rule of thumb is 2 300+ ranked opponents at absolute most a season, something we were able to keep to 16 of the 19 seasons prior to the last two. The last 2 seasons though we've averaged 5.5 a season! It's simply really poor scheduling that shouldn't happen and just playing this many of these type of games can cost you a line ot two in the bracket.
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100% I'd add that they shouldn't even really be trying to schedule ANY 300+ games. To the extent they can (which might be hard since they want teams that do not demand home and home) they should only try to schedule teams that are like 200 (for the easy games, obviously they should also schedule some tough games). Some years those teams will be 300+ and there is nothing you can do about it. Sometimes they'll be 80 and the schedule will feel really hard, but that should be the plan.
 
#55      
D1959
Forgive me for asking a basketball question on a basketball forum. Does anyone think playing time is going to be an issue for some Who think they should be getting more minutes than they actually will?
 
#57      
foby
D1959 said:
Forgive me for asking a basketball question on a basketball forum. Does anyone think playing time is going to be an issue for some Who think they should be getting more minutes than they actually will?
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Absolutely. We have 12 players who have the talent to play and who want to play. However, unlike last years team, I don't think egos are gonna be a huge issue.
 
#59      
Illiniguy13
foby said:
Absolutely. We have 12 players who have the talent to play and who want to play. However, unlike last years team, I don't think egos are gonna be a huge issue.
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Really hope so. The Sleepers podcast guys call our squad “The Real Housewives of Champaign”. Lol. I realize a lot of listeners (especially on this board) discredit their takes, which is understandable - always worth taking that sort of stuff with a grain of salt. But they do have a point - there’s a pretty long list of personality/chemistry issues that have been apparent on Brad’s teams. They claim they saw some not so great body language from Dain and Dra, if I’m not mistaken. Typically wouldn’t care at all, but what gives me pause is early in the season they said the exact same thing about Epps and Skyy last year before it was discussed much here. Really hope it’s not valid!
 
#61      
3nDGuy
tcb13 said:
you're a homer
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Interested Whats Going On GIF
 
#62      
EyeoftheIllini
aaeismacgychel said:
This is one thing I do have a complaint about with Brad and scheduling in recent years. While he has done a fine job of scheduling the high quality games, he really needs to do a better job at scheduling the fattening cupcakes (300+ ranked) where no matter the margin of victory or efficiency stats, there is no way to overcome how badly they weigh down the SOS and Quality of Competition metrics. This year alone we have 5 opponents ranked 300+ and a 6th who isn't all that far off! There is absolutely no need for this considering there is very little difference in the ability of a P5 team to beat a 200-250 ranked team at home vs. a 300+ team. I've performed the mathematical breakdown on here before of why playing 300+ ranked opponents is so bad, as no matter what you do in those games it only negatively impacts your efficiency metrics and resume due to the quality of opponent hit, so I won't do it again, but just to compare coaches:

Brad:
2024: 5 300+, 1 250+
2023: 6 300+
2022: 2 300+, 1 250+
2021: 1 300+, 1 250+
2020: 2 300+, 2 250+
2019: 1 300+
2018: 3 300+, 1 250+

Groce:
2017: 1 300+
2016: 2 300+
2015: 3 300+, 2 250+
2014: 1 300+, 3 250+
2013: 1 250+

Weber
2012: 2 300+, 2 250+
2011: 1 300+, 1 250+
2010: 2 300+
2009: 1 300+, 2 250+
2008: None
2007: 1 300+, 2 250+
2006: 3 300+, 2 250+
2005: 2 300+
2004: 2 300+

Generally, the rule of thumb is 2 300+ ranked opponents at absolute most a season, something we were able to keep to 16 of the 19 seasons prior to the last two. The last 2 seasons though we've averaged 5.5 a season! It's simply really poor scheduling that shouldn't happen and just playing this many of these type of games can cost you a line ot two in the bracket.
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First, kudos for all the research. That said, I’m not sure how relevant scheduling from 15-20 years ago (or even 10 years) is to today’s situation. My big question is how does our schedule stack up against our peer group now? Because what stands out to me from your research is that the last 2 schedules have seen an up tick in cellar dwellers. Why is that? Is this something that is happening across our peer group as schools look to increase the number of their marquee noncon matchups? Is this a response in some way to the transfer portal and how recruiting and retention has changed in college basketball? These cupcake games do serve a purpose — letting your team work out some kinks and begin to gel early in season as well as give freshmen/end of bench guys important in-game development time. With increased roster turnover and importance of keeping young players happy with some playing time, are teams on average scheduling more cupcakes? I’m also not sure why you made the cutoffs 250+ and 300+. I believe home games against 161+ are Quad 4 games. And is there really much of a difference between say a team ranked 219 and 255?

I don’t know the answers to these questions and don’t have the inclination to research the exact ranking of teams other BIG or ranked teams play. I guess this is just a long-winded way of saying I don’t have much of an issue with the scheduling as long as we continue to have some top ranked noncon teams on schedule. And again, I am curious as to why the jump in the last 2 years as you indicated because prior to that Brad’s schedules were pretty much on par with other regimes in that regard.
 
#63      
Loyalillini10
Illiniguy13 said:
Really hope so. The Sleepers podcast guys call our squad “The Real Housewives of Champaign”. Lol. I realize a lot of listeners (especially on this board) discredit their takes, which is understandable - always worth taking that sort of stuff with a grain of salt. But they do have a point - there’s a pretty long list of personality/chemistry issues that have been apparent on Brad’s teams. They claim they saw some not so great body language from Dain and Dra, if I’m not mistaken. Typically wouldn’t care at all, but what gives me pause is early in the season they said the exact same thing about Epps and Skyy last year before it was discussed much here. Really hope it’s not valid!
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This has been discussed here before. Sleepers know the Illini have a rabid fan base and riling them up gets them more clicks. Our game against KU was no different than how MSU played Tenn and PU played Arkansas.

We have Underwood under a microscope so many of us fail to look outside of Illinois basketball. BU has lost several players to the portal and has had a good amount of turnover on his teams. However, this is not an outlier. If you zoom out, you would notice that practically every team now has the same issue. MSU being an exception (so far) and, thus, they are an outlier. This is college basketball now with the portal and NIL. You don’t have to like it, but it is the way it is.
 
#64      
21ChampaignSt
Loyalillini10 said:
This has been discussed here before. Sleepers know the Illini have a rabid fan base and riling them up gets them more clicks. Our game against KU was no different than how MSU played Tenn and PU played Arkansas.

We have Underwood under a microscope so many of us fail to look outside of Illinois basketball. BU has lost several players to the portal and has had a good amount of turnover on his teams. However, this is not an outlier. If you zoom out, you would notice that practically every team now has the same issue. MSU being an exception (so far) and, thus, they are an outlier. This is college basketball now with the portal and NIL. You don’t have to like it, but it is the way it is.
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It's also possible that because we have Illinois under a microscope we just assume everyone else is having this same issue.

The numbers have been shared on here a couple times before, but Illinois is in the top 3 or 4 in conference in terms of players leaving.

So, yeah, there has been a nation wide uptick in transfers but Illinois has had more than our fair share. If I remember correctly, it's not obscenely higher than average but it is clearly more than average.
 
#65      
Bigtex
D1959 said:
Forgive me for asking a basketball question on a basketball forum. Does anyone think playing time is going to be an issue for some Who think they should be getting more minutes than they actually will?
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Freshman will always want (maybe not deserve) more minutes. Especially tough getting minutes with an older squad. Can (Hansberry and DGL) they get enough minutes to see a promising future in CU?
IMO Harris will get minutes in preseason games, but his will minutes be limited overall. Probably fewer minutes than last year. 479 minutes / 14.5 minutes a game
has Dain improved offseason? If so, we will see him on the floor a good amount.

Tiers of playing time
Shannon, Hawkins, Domask,
Guerrier, Rodgers
Goode, Harmon, Dain
Harris, DGL, Hansberry
Morreti
 
#66      
MDchicago
Loyalillini10 said:
This has been discussed here before. Sleepers know the Illini have a rabid fan base and riling them up gets them more clicks. Our game against KU was no different than how MSU played Tenn and PU played Arkansas.

We have Underwood under a microscope so many of us fail to look outside of Illinois basketball. BU has lost several players to the portal and has had a good amount of turnover on his teams. However, this is not an outlier. If you zoom out, you would notice that practically every team now has the same issue. MSU being an exception (so far) and, thus, they are an outlier. This is college basketball now with the portal and NIL. You don’t have to like it, but it is the way it is.
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One compelling visual for me demonstrating this point is this list (left column Link) of current players approaching significant milestones (1,000 points, 1,500 points, etc.). Compare how many have played at "Multiple schools" vs. a single school in the left column (current players approaching milestones) vs. in the right column (all-time career leaders from the past).
 
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#67      
Bigtex
21ChampaignSt said:
It's also possible that because we have Illinois under a microscope we just assume everyone else is having this same issue.

The numbers have been shared on here a couple times before, but Illinois is in the top 3 or 4 in conference in terms of players leaving.

So, yeah, there has been a nation wide uptick in transfers but Illinois has had more than our fair share. If I remember correctly, it's not obscenely higher than average but it is clearly more than average.
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Seems like Underwood has done well recruiting the portal. Seems like he hasn't done as good as a job keeping players he recruited out of high school.

Only 3 of our top 8 came in as freshman. My top 8 for 23/24
Shannon, Hawkins, Domask, Guerrier, Rodgers, Goode, Harmon, Dain
 
#69      
Rap47
Bigtex said:
Seems like Underwood has done well recruiting the portal. Seems like he hasn't done as good as a job keeping players he recruited out of high school.

Only 3 of our top 8 came in as freshman. My top 8 for 23/24
Shannon, Hawkins, Domask, Guerrier, Rodgers, Goode, Harmon, Dain
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How many would you want back?
 
#70      
pruman91
The portal as it is now , is definitely a give and take proposition..........I don't blame BU , at all , for players leaving the program.......he is doing what is best for the ascendance of the Illini to the top of the college BB food chain.....And I applaud him for his efforts..........

It can't be easy managing all those different personalities of the squad........RJ Melendez is a prime example of addition by subtraction is the best course of action for BOTH sides........BU gave RJ way more opportunities than probably anyone else would have and it just didn't work out...........

These graphs and charts about the number of players leaving are a composite , not taking into account each individual case.......

All I know is this ..........................


RJ...........................best for both sides...................
Adam M..............parental interference................
Belo......................serious maturity issues , not just at UI.................
A. Griffin.............another parental interference...............................
J. Epps..................butthurt about tough love and refused to re-enter game.......
S. Clark.................quit on team midway through season.............
B. Lieb..................stayed 3 years and wanted more playing time ....no chance here
Z. Perrin...............turned pro back in France........................
J. Grandison.......I was surprised he left and we needed him, but I think he left on good terms.............


I'm sure some think of Pods leaving as the same reason as all the others leaving , but further examination is needed to seek the real reason for someone transferring out.........there are many more I didn't list , but I think you get my drift..................

It's a give and take scenario and I'm glad BU and staff are in control of this.....I'm sure they have made mistakes , but I guarantee they didn't make mistakes to hurt the program.....If anyone has proof they made decisions to hurt the program then I'm all ears......

after all is said and done , they are humans and humans make mistakes...........I support BU and staff when their decisions are good and not so good........JMHO

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#71      
Lee
pruman91 said:
The portal as it is now , is definitely a give and take proposition..........I don't blame BU , at all , for players leaving the program.......he is doing what is best for the ascendance of the Illini to the top of the college BB food chain.....And I applaud him for his efforts..........

It can't be easy managing all those different personalities of the squad........RJ Melendez is a prime example of addition by subtraction is the best course of action for BOTH sides........BU gave RJ way more opportunities than probably anyone else would have and it just didn't work out...........

These graphs and charts about the number of players leaving are a composite , not taking into account each individual case.......

All I know is this ..........................


RJ...........................best for both sides...................
Adam M..............parental interference................
Belo......................serious maturity issues , not just at UI.................
A. Griffin.............another parental interference...............................
J. Epps..................butthurt about tough love and refused to re-enter game.......
S. Clark.................quit on team midway through season.............
B. Lieb..................stayed 3 years and wanted more playing time ....no chance here
Z. Perrin...............turned pro back in France........................
J. Grandison.......I was surprised he left and we needed him, but I think he left on good terms.............


I'm sure some think of Pods leaving as the same reason as all the others leaving , but further examination is needed to seek the real reason for someone transferring out.........there are many more I didn't list , but I think you get my drift..................

It's a give and take scenario and I'm glad BU and staff are in control of this.....I'm sure they have made mistakes , but I guarantee they didn't make mistakes to hurt the program.....If anyone has proof they made decisions to hurt the program then I'm all ears......

after all is said and done , they are humans and humans make mistakes...........I support BU and staff when their decisions are good and not so good........JMHO

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#72      
Illiniguy13
Loyalillini10 said:
This has been discussed here before. Sleepers know the Illini have a rabid fan base and riling them up gets them more clicks. Our game against KU was no different than how MSU played Tenn and PU played Arkansas.

We have Underwood under a microscope so many of us fail to look outside of Illinois basketball. BU has lost several players to the portal and has had a good amount of turnover on his teams. However, this is not an outlier. If you zoom out, you would notice that practically every team now has the same issue. MSU being an exception (so far) and, thus, they are an outlier. This is college basketball now with the portal and NIL. You don’t have to like it, but it is the way it is.
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Totally agree players leaving isn't an outlier - the portal world has changed things and there will be roster turnover across the whole landscape of college ball every year. My question is - are the chemistry issues an outlier? Players leaving is one thing - Matthew Mayer and Skyy Clark throwing punches is another. The whole Andre Curbelo saga was weird. The Mark Smith stuff was weird. Jaden Epps refusing to go back into a game in that Northwestern matchup was weird. The Adam Miller mom drama was something. I think we've also had a couple walk-ons throw some tantrums as well. Maybe at the end of the day, those guys are just problematic individuals. It does seem like we've had more drama around our program than most teams out there. Again, I truly hope that's not the case this year and it definitely feels that it won't be. It's probably unrealistic to assume everybody in the back half of the bench is going to be 100% bought into their roles but let's hope it alt east doesn't blow up into anything.
 
#73      
illini0440
Illiniguy13 said:
Totally agree players leaving isn't an outlier - the portal world has changed things and there will be roster turnover across the whole landscape of college ball every year. My question is - are the chemistry issues an outlier? Players leaving is one thing - Matthew Mayer and Skyy Clark throwing punches is another. The whole Andre Curbelo saga was weird. The Mark Smith stuff was weird. Jaden Epps refusing to go back into a game in that Northwestern matchup was weird. The Adam Miller mom drama was something. I think we've also had a couple walk-ons throw some tantrums as well. Maybe at the end of the day, those guys are just problematic individuals. It does seem like we've had more drama around our program than most teams out there. Again, I truly hope that's not the case this year and it definitely feels that it won't be. It's probably unrealistic to assume everybody in the back half of the bench is going to be 100% bought into their roles but let's hope it alt east doesn't blow up into anything.
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The reason you think more drama follows us than any other school is because you follow us way closer than any other school. Fights happen in practice all the time. Fights happened when Ayo was here, fights happened when Dee and Deron were here. They also happen all over at other schools as well. Also parent drama wouldn't lead to chemistry issues. Chemistry was fine with Miller as he loved it here.
 
#74      
ptgrd23
In the old days this game would have been on B10 network.

I guess the B10+ network is the price we pay for $60M/year per school b10 payout.

I wish somebody would come up with simple ppv system where I could just pay $5 to view the game.

FYI- I use Youtube TV, Netflix, Amazon Prime and DisneyPlus.
 
#75      
Illiniguy13
illini0440 said:
The reason you think more drama follows us than any other school is because you follow us way closer than any other school. Fights happen in practice all the time. Fights happened when Ayo was here, fights happened when Dee and Deron were here. They also happen all over at other schools as well. Also parent drama wouldn't lead to chemistry issues. Chemistry was fine with Miller as he loved it here.
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Fair enough and always appreciate the insight
 
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