Pregame: Illinois vs Eastern Illinois, Monday, November 6th, 7:00pm CT, B1G+

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#128      

The Galloping Ghost

The Galloping Ghost
Washington, DC
The Galloping Ghost
Dan said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721331606609129521
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Let's F'ing GOOOOO. Just over here ready to run through all the walls. Could not be more ready for this season to get started.
 
#130      

cjw1901

C
cjw1901
lstewart53x3 said:
I think Dain will get more than 10-12 minutes a game because of foul trouble. Hawkins had 2 in the first half against Kansas. In a real game, he’s on the bench and Dain’s in to replace him.

The reason why Underwood would prefer to play Hawkins at the 5 though is that it opens up the court. It allows us to play 5 out, bringing the opposing big out to the ark. That opens up driving lanes for Shannon and Rodgers + cutting lanes for Domask.
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I agree with you that an opposing big will spend more time on defense further from the rim if CH (or QG) is out there instead of DD. But when you say, "bringing the opposing big to the arc", you are exaggerating a little bit. The bigs virtually always sag and rarely get to the arc on defense. For example, HD almost never came fully to the arc to defend CH. This is partly why CH went 4-9 on 3s, namely KU gave CH a lot of open looks from there.

But, if CH shoots last season avg of 28% on 3s (vs 44% on 3s in the KU game), then guys like HD sag even more. Oh, and when DD can easily get shots off (like against bigs that are 6'9" and shorter), then DD might score again at a rate of 64%*2=1.28 pts/shot, which is WAY better than CH's scoring rate of 28%*3=0.84 pts/shot, where I used last season percentages.

It does open the lane a little to have CH on the perimeter, but that effect is offset when opposing bigs sag (which they normally do) and since CH is much less effective (on pts per shot) at 3s than DD is at 2s, using last season's percentages. So, I expect Underwood to go back to plenty of mins for DD (about 20 per game) once we play centers who are about DD's size, like JH (who is 6'10") in this EIU game.
 
#131      

Frank

Frank
Frank
cjw1901 said:
I agree with you that an opposing big will spend more time on defense further from the rim if CH (or QG) is out there instead of DD. But when you say, "bringing the opposing big to the arc", you are exaggerating a little bit. The bigs virtually always sag and rarely get to the arc on defense. For example, HD almost never came fully to the arc to defend CH. This is partly why CH went 4-9 on 3s, namely KU gave CH a lot of open looks from there.

But, if CH shoots last season avg of 28% on 3s (vs 44% on 3s in the KU game), then guys like HD sag even more. Oh, and when DD can easily get shots off (like against bigs that are 6'9" and shorter), then DD might score again at a rate of 64%*2=1.28 pts/shot, which is WAY better than CH's scoring rate of 28%*3=0.84 pts/shot, where I used last season percentages.

It does open the lane a little to have CH on the perimeter, but that effect is offset when opposing bigs sag (which they normally do) and since CH is much less effective (on pts per shot) at 3s than DD is at 2s, using last season's percentages. So, I expect Underwood to go back to plenty of mins for DD (about 20 per game) once we play centers who are about DD's size, like JH (who is 6'10") in this EIU game.
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Dain's biggest issue isn't that he can't shoot 3s and Coleman can; it's that he is absolutely awful at shooting free throws. Coleman needs to be better there too, but a big benefit of playing in the paint is getting to the line. That is nullified with Dain and can even be used against him (hack-a-Shaq). If he shot close to 70% from the line, this would be a different conversation. Without that, it's tough to play him at the end of games, which means those 20 min/game would all have to come in the first 30-35 min of actual game play.
 
#133      

tcb13

T
tcb13
I live in Charleston, have a degree from EIU, have a work location I visit multiple times/wk that has a 5 ft cardboard cutout of Billy the Panther (EIUs mascot) and I still hope Keaton Kutcher and AJ get minutes in the first half AND each score more than EIU's top scorer...too much to ask?
 
#134      

grue2

G
grue2
DeonThomas said:
Which leads me to this PPG prediction:

17 - Shannon
13 - Hawkins
9 - Guerrier
8 - Domask
7 - Goode
6 - Rodgers
6 - Dainja
5 - Harmon
5 - DGL/Hansberry/Harris
76 - TOTAL

And if we play some really solid (Top 25) defense, we should win 20+ games ---- good enough for a 4 seed in the tourney next March.
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I'm going to have to think on this a bit. My first guess, excluding cupcake games, is something like:

15 - Shannon (Defenses will learn to key on him.)
13 - Hawkins (I was debating anywhere from 10-16.)
11 - Domask (Feels low. Will not being the defensive focus increase his scoring?)
9 - Dainja (Individual games will be 5pts or 15pt)
8 - Rodgers (just due to having the ball and driving ability)
8 - Guerrier
5 - Goode (Luke feels off since the injury. I'm considering lowering this to 2.)
2 - Harris
? - Hansberry (Debating if I think he can get 2-5m/game by late season.)
2 - Harmon/DGL
72 - TOTAL (Maybe 73-74. BT defensive battles will keep the average down.)

I'll try to remember to post an update after the first 2 real games.
 
#136      

Illinifrank67

Illinifrank67
Illinifrank67
cjw1901 said:
I agree with you that an opposing big will spend more time on defense further from the rim if CH (or QG) is out there instead of DD. But when you say, "bringing the opposing big to the arc", you are exaggerating a little bit. The bigs virtually always sag and rarely get to the arc on defense. For example, HD almost never came fully to the arc to defend CH. This is partly why CH went 4-9 on 3s, namely KU gave CH a lot of open looks from there.

But, if CH shoots last season avg of 28% on 3s (vs 44% on 3s in the KU game), then guys like HD sag even more. Oh, and when DD can easily get shots off (like against bigs that are 6'9" and shorter), then DD might score again at a rate of 64%*2=1.28 pts/shot, which is WAY better than CH's scoring rate of 28%*3=0.84 pts/shot, where I used last season percentages.

It does open the lane a little to have CH on the perimeter, but that effect is offset when opposing bigs sag (which they normally do) and since CH is much less effective (on pts per shot) at 3s than DD is at 2s, using last season's percentages. So, I expect Underwood to go back to plenty of mins for DD (about 20 per game) once we play centers who are about DD's size, like JH (who is 6'10") in this EIU game.
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If the ball moves like it did against KU all year I think we see a much better 3pt % from CH. I’ve not seen any stats on it but it just seemed like CH got stuck taking a lot of late possession, offense broke down heaves last year. And that’s going to kill anyone not named Steph Curry’s %.
 
#138      

Captain Bubbles

Captain Bubbles
Fairfield, IL
Captain Bubbles
Eastern Illinois is my alma mater, Class of 2014. Proud to be a Panther, and I have some pride as I'm the only one in my family to graduate with a college degree. EIU was good to me for a couple years, as I went to a community college before Eastern.

I have much respect for Marty "The Mule" Simmons. A legendary player back in the 80's at Lawrenceville, I was watching IHSA archive footage of him recently. I hope he turns the EIU basketball program around.

I expect Illinois to win and start the season 1-0.
 
#139      

Loyalillini10

L
Urbana, IL
Loyalillini10
grue2 said:
I'm going to have to think on this a bit. My first guess, excluding cupcake games, is something like:

15 - Shannon (Defenses will learn to key on him.)
13 - Hawkins (I was debating anywhere from 10-16.)
11 - Domask (Feels low. Will not being the defensive focus increase his scoring?)
9 - Dainja (Individual games will be 5pts or 15pt)
8 - Rodgers (just due to having the ball and driving ability)
8 - Guerrier
5 - Goode (Luke feels off since the injury. I'm considering lowering this to 2.)
2 - Harris
? - Hansberry (Debating if I think he can get 2-5m/game by late season.)
2 - Harmon/DGL
72 - TOTAL (Maybe 73-74. BT defensive battles will keep the average down.)

I'll try to remember to post an update after the first 2 real games.
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I want to play.

17 - Shannon (Defenses will key on him, but it won't matter--he will still get his. I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the season he has the most FT attempts in the B10)
14 - Hawkins (He will have the ball a lot. I don't think he will have a 44% 3pt avg but I wouldn't be surprised if it were a respectable 35%).
11 - Domask (This seems about right. I think it would be higher but he seems to always look to get his teammates involved).
9 - Dainja (He will see the floor a good amount and he has very nice post moves. Would be higher if he could ht FTs).
7 - Rodgers (just due to having the ball and driving ability)
9.5 - Guerrier (I think Guerrier can shoot and drive at a decent clip. Also pretty good at the FT line.)
7.5 - Goode (I believe in Goode. I think he is good for 2.5 3pters a game. He probably won't shoot many FTs though).
4 - Harris (Harris will see the floor because of his energy. He is a good slasher and will get some buckets that way).
3.5 - Hansberry (I think he will have some games with higher numbers against lesser talented teams but the more competitive games will bring his average and PT way down. Love the kid, though).
4.5- Harmon - (He will hit at least a 3 pter a game and we may see him at the end of games leading to some FT opportunities).
2.5 - DGL - (He will be in some games if he has the right attitude. Reminds me a bit of Fr TF. He will make some mistakes but can put the ball in the basket).

I think our offensive output will be higher than some predict. I don't think we will spend much time in the backcourt.
89.5 - TOTAL (May seem a bit high, but I think there is a lot of scoring potential on this team).
 
#141      

hodgesonfire

H
hodgesonfire
Loyalillini10 said:
I want to play.

17 - Shannon (Defenses will key on him, but it won't matter--he will still get his. I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the season he has the most FT attempts in the B10)
14 - Hawkins (He will have the ball a lot. I don't think he will have a 44% 3pt avg but I wouldn't be surprised if it were a respectable 35%).
11 - Domask (This seems about right. I think it would be higher but he seems to always look to get his teammates involved).
9 - Dainja (He will see the floor a good amount and he has very nice post moves. Would be higher if he could ht FTs).
7 - Rodgers (just due to having the ball and driving ability)
9.5 - Guerrier (I think Guerrier can shoot and drive at a decent clip. Also pretty good at the FT line.)
7.5 - Goode (I believe in Goode. I think he is good for 2.5 3pters a game. He probably won't shoot many FTs though).
4 - Harris (Harris will see the floor because of his energy. He is a good slasher and will get some buckets that way).
3.5 - Hansberry (I think he will have some games with higher numbers against lesser talented teams but the more competitive games will bring his average and PT way down. Love the kid, though).
4.5- Harmon - (He will hit at least a 3 pter a game and we may see him at the end of games leading to some FT opportunities).
2.5 - DGL - (He will be in some games if he has the right attitude. Reminds me a bit of Fr TF. He will make some mistakes but can put the ball in the basket).

I think our offensive output will be higher than some predict. I don't think we will spend much time in the backcourt.
89.5 - TOTAL (May seem a bit high, but I think there is a lot of scoring potential on this team).
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That would make us the top offense in the country last season almost 4 pts better than Gonzaga
 
#143      

Frank

Frank
Frank
Loyalillini10 said:
I want to play.

17 - Shannon (Defenses will key on him, but it won't matter--he will still get his. I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the season he has the most FT attempts in the B10)
14 - Hawkins (He will have the ball a lot. I don't think he will have a 44% 3pt avg but I wouldn't be surprised if it were a respectable 35%).
11 - Domask (This seems about right. I think it would be higher but he seems to always look to get his teammates involved).
9 - Dainja (He will see the floor a good amount and he has very nice post moves. Would be higher if he could ht FTs).
7 - Rodgers (just due to having the ball and driving ability)
9.5 - Guerrier (I think Guerrier can shoot and drive at a decent clip. Also pretty good at the FT line.)
7.5 - Goode (I believe in Goode. I think he is good for 2.5 3pters a game. He probably won't shoot many FTs though).
4 - Harris (Harris will see the floor because of his energy. He is a good slasher and will get some buckets that way).
3.5 - Hansberry (I think he will have some games with higher numbers against lesser talented teams but the more competitive games will bring his average and PT way down. Love the kid, though).
4.5- Harmon - (He will hit at least a 3 pter a game and we may see him at the end of games leading to some FT opportunities).
2.5 - DGL - (He will be in some games if he has the right attitude. Reminds me a bit of Fr TF. He will make some mistakes but can put the ball in the basket).

I think our offensive output will be higher than some predict. I don't think we will spend much time in the backcourt.
89.5 - TOTAL (May seem a bit high, but I think there is a lot of scoring potential on this team).
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Important to remember that a guy like Trent Frazier, who had the ball a ton and was a microwave scorer, never averaged over 12 pts/game for his last 3 years in school. Domask hitting 11/game would really surprise me. Same for CH hitting 14/game. I'd put Domask at 9 or 10, CH at 12, and knock down Goode, Hansberry, and Guerrier.
 
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