Epsilon
M tipping over
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Wonder what this looks like without ref interference in key game-deciding plays…
Michigan definitely moves up the table…
Pregame: Illinois vs Indiana, Saturday, November 11th, 11:00am CT, BTN
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Michigan definitely moves up the table…
I agree, there's no QB controversy, but I'm not sure why everyone is throwing out Paddock's PSU game as some rationale as to why he's worse that Altmyer. Altmyer's PSU game may be the worst game I have seen a QB play in recent Illinois history. Paddock outplayed him in that game too. Not that stats tell the whole story, but in this instance, the stats are pretty telling....
I don't think it makes any sense to start Paddock over Altmyer for what we're trying to build moving forward, but let's not pretend Paddock looked any more lost than Altmyer on that fateful day in September...
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
I like Luke at QB, but encouraging to see how Paddock performed in the PSU & Minny games if Luke can’t go on Saturday.
Epsilon
M tipping over
- Pdx
So would Indiana iirc now that I think about it.
Was Jim Harbaugh on it watching our plays?
Paddock was playing against Penn State’s 3rd team
I agree with those who say there's no controversy to even discuss at this point.
But if we're discussing Paddock, what made me nervous about his performance at PSU was that some of his throws seemed to be nowhere near the receivers. I attributed it to accuracy at the time, but it could have been that they just weren't on the same page. He seemed like a completely different (and, obviously awesome) guy last Saturday, so I won't stress about him stepping in if needed.
Several things here -
1. Paddock was in during garbage time v. PSU and looked that way. Most starters weren’t out there if I remember right. That said, the counterpoint was that was his first game and he worked into it well after the first few atrocities.
2. Altmeyer gives your team the best long-term chance of success, for sure, but Paddock seems to be a more inspiring and confident signal caller at the moment. Every indication out of camp was that from a leadership and moxie perspective Paddock was more like Tommy was where Altmeyer was still “working into that role.” That’s coach speak for not being a vocal leader. Everything’s fine when he’s throwing TD’s and winning but when the cards are down you need someone to inspire the team. Seems like there was a clear advantage towards paddock there reading the tea leaves and given Isaiah’s comments post Minnesota I think that’s still the general sentiment. Luke’s got to develop that leadership.
3. Luke has the fast track to getting this job. We can’t really know what’s going on in Brett’s head but if it was anything other than Paddock blowing Luke’s doors off in spring/summer, it’s gonna be Luke.
4. Luke is good. He’s young and he’s still developing the internal processing of the game but he’s good. His stats prior to the fourth quarter drop off were really good against Minnesota. He’s got wheels. He’s got deep ball talent. His biggest issue right now is a hesitancy to trust his OL and honestly can you blame him? This guys had the heck beaten out of him in several games and he just keeps getting back up.
5. WILD CARD - Brett brought up Cal Swanson unprompted during media availability yesterday. Why? Are they really thinking of running multiple QB’s tomorrow?
The IU team is loading up and ready to get on the road to Champaign.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
Indiana is full of students that could not get into Illinois.
Agreed. I was at the PSU game and couldn't even guess what Altmyer was looking at with his throws. But, I still see the potential. He needs to play.
I'm sorry, but I don't think that is correct. I was at the game and thought it was interesting how mamy starters were still playing halfway through the 4Q. There may have benn some 2nd stringers, but there were many starters out there. As miserable as that game was, at the beginning of the 4Q, the game was not over yet.
Just bought a single ticket in the 2nd row EB 50 yard line. I have a new 16x monoscope. My wife has work commitments. So I'm doing one of my favorite things: spending the day by myself, driving 3 hours each way, listening to music, getting tuned-up, walking around campus, talking to strangers, and watching live sports (Illini football this time). I will have fun no matter who starts at QB.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Side note, but has anyone been to their stadium? While I realize it's small, likely lacking in atmosphere and just generally nothing extraordinary, I cannot help but feel like it might be pretty underrated. It gets talked about with the bottom of the conference, but I think they did a nice job with their renovations.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
A few thoughts jumped out at me when seeing this:
1. Given that we also beat Minnesota, this chart REALLY shows how cathartic 2022 was for our fan base, specifically beating Wisconsin and Iowa, lol.
2. This very much helps to highlight how infrequently we play traditional Big Ten teams that are in the Eastern Division.
3. The Indiana stat makes me want to puke, but we have really blown some games vs. bad IU teams since 2011.
4. Ohio State really took Juice and Co. beating them in the Horseshoe personally, and with only a few exceptions they have pretty much whooped our a$$ every time since.
His first really big game and I think it was a matter of him just forcing it too much.
Look, he's thrown some interceptions trying to push for explosive plays. That's a little different than just making bad throws. He's running around for his life out there sometimes with this pass protection, but he's not scared. We've had a lot of really timid QB's before DeVito who were talented but just didn't have that drive... while Luke may not have as much outward swagger as DeVito has... he's play his hardest out there and I don't think we've had that prior to DeVito.
This is going to be a bit lengthy but i think it will be helpful in light of the recent QB "controversy"*.
I honestly think we are still basking in a post-Tommy DeVito afterglow that, somehow, has led all of us to lose our minds as to how bad our historical QB play has been this century. I posted this over the summer in response to posts about low expectations for our QB play**-
if we take these as a hard cut offs -Illini QBs to post 2200yds, >/= 60% completion, 14TD/7INT (2:1)-
here's the list that have accomplished that here since 2004:
2022 DeVito 2650yds 69% completion 15TD/4Int
.
.
.
.
yep, that's it.
some others were close but not quite all criteria and that's been almost 10 yrs-
2015 Lunt 2761 yds 56% 14/6
2014 Lunt 1763 yds 63% 14/3
2013 Scheelhaase 3272yds 67% 21/13 (1.6:1)
2011 Scheelhaase 2110yds 63% 13/8 (1.6:1)
Where to LA stand to date??
2023 (through 9 games) Altmyer 1883 yds 65% 13/10
- leading the Big 10 West in almost every category and he has ~280 yds rushing with 3TD
so...with 3 games left in the season (hopefully 4!), as a redshirt So starting his first full season he currently would have the 3rd best accuracy in the past 12 yrs (and that's compared with 5th yr DeVito and Sr year Scheelhaase).
this has been accomplished in an offense that was (is?) a hot mess for at least the first half of the year and with the worst sack numbers of any QB during that time-
Sacks by season
2023 Altmyer- 34 sacks (through 9 games)
2013 Scheelhaase- 28
2022 DeVito- 27
2019 Peters- 24
2014 O-Toole- 21
2017 George Jr- 20
we can argue about how much 'blame' lies with Altmyer for the sack numbers vs O line but by my eye test, he has genuinely been under duress most of the season and has taken hit after hit.
also, his numbers have improved over the season-
first 4 games- 874 yds 65% 4TD/7INT
last 5 games- 1009 yds 65% 9TH/3INT
we have our QB1. i think we should feel very good about our QB situation now and moving forward in coming years. Altmyer already is having a notable statistical year 3/4 the way through despite: 1) first year starting, 2) historically bad protection, 3) offense scheme still a work in progress.
Disclaimers
* I am not trying to discredit what Paddock has brought to the team; the Minnesota drive was absolutely noteworthy and will be remembered for a long time
** i agree we should have a higher bar for QB in general, but its just not where the program is...or has been for a long time
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Final Sellout Watch for tomorrow. Should be another good crowd. The ticket tracker is currently showing just under 50,000. The tracker though has trended below actual attendance by an average of 2,436 so far in 2023. So given that, my official guess is going to potentially be on the high side: 54,000.
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