Pregame: Illinois vs Iowa, Saturday, February 24th, 1:15pm CT, BTN

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#76      
Third reason is it’s more fun to watch good offense than good defense team.

Counter point however: defense is almost always more reliable and sustainable and is one of the most important factors come March.
Idk man, that game yesterday was so painful to watch. I'd rather have mediocre offense and a great defense anyday. Not Rutgers level bad but top 40 Kenpom is enough.
 
#77      
This though feels especially appropriate with this opponent coming up, but is this how Iowa fans feel all the time with Fran as head coach? Incredible offense but just absolute dread that a porous defense will ruin any chance of a post season run?

Are they just used to it by now so they just kind of accept it as reality? Whereas we have seen some solid defensive play in recent seasons which makes this stretch that much more frustrating?
 
#78      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Third reason is it’s more fun to watch good offense than good defense team.

Counter point however: defense is almost always more reliable and sustainable and is one of the most important factors come March.

That's the common narrative, but I haven't seen much evidence proving it. If anyone knows of some, I'd love to read it. Sans that, I have it categorized as "coach-speak that isn't necessarily true, but helps motivate teams on the less glamorous (and still important) side of the ball".
 
#79      

skyIdub

Winged Warrior
Not one for predictions normally, but:

Illinois 87
Iowa 76

They can use this win to spark plug themselves in these final 5 games. Every game left is winnable, and @ Wisconsin looks way more doable than it did two weeks ago. The goal need to be to finish the year 4-1, 23-8 overall

76? Bold!!

Iowa offense #16 Scoring and #23 Offensive Efficiency.

I tend to think that we can fix at least 50% of our defensive issues with effort......so maybe they really bring it Sat. at home?

But if Iowa is clicking....and our effort is anywhere near last night?

Iowa gettin' their 90+.

Gonna need a 40 piece from TSJ!!

I'm not going to watch. One game ban self imposed.
 
#80      
76? Bold!!

Iowa offense #16 Scoring and #23 Offensive Efficiency.

I tend to think that we can fix at least 50% of our defensive issues with effort......so maybe they really bring it Sat. at home?

But if Iowa is clicking....and our effort is anywhere near last night?

Iowa gettin' their 90+.

Gonna need a 40 piece from TSJ!!

I'm not going to watch. One game ban self imposed.
It’s not bold. We’re playing at home where we are significantly better. Iowa ain’t getting their 90+ unless it goes into to OT or double OT.
 
#81      

USAFILLINI

Florida
That's the common narrative, but I haven't seen much evidence proving it. If anyone knows of some, I'd love to read it. Sans that, I have it categorized as "coach-speak that isn't necessarily true, but helps motivate teams on the less glamorous (and still important) side of the ball".
Im pretty sure All the National Championship teams have been in the top 20 Defensive wise.

Looking for stuff more recent but saw this blurb:

From 2008 to 2017, the NCAA champions have averaged the third-best defense and the ninth-best offense. In other words, history says that the national champion will be a team with an elite defense and a potent offense.

Teams should be hitting their stride around this time, our team has progressively gotten worst each game on D (outside Michigan, but you could find rec ball teams who could run with them)
 
#83      
It’s not bold. We’re playing at home where we are significantly better. Iowa ain’t getting their 90+ unless it goes into to OT or double OT.
Iowa is probably the best overall offense we've played at home all season. What's interesting is that we seem to be better on defense at home and better on offense on the road.

But based on how poor the defense has been overall, I can't help but feel that opponents struggling more at State Farm is more of a symptom of playing in a loud, unfamiliar environment rather than great defense on our end.
 
#84      
Is this a game where we see Dain and Coleman play together? Iowa will play Krikke and Freeman at the same time.
 
#86      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Im pretty sure All the National Championship teams have been in the top 20 Defensive wise.

Looking for stuff more recent but saw this blurb:

From 2008 to 2017, the NCAA champions have averaged the third-best defense and the ninth-best offense. In other words, history says that the national champion will be a team with an elite defense and a potent offense.

Teams should be hitting their stride around this time, our team has progressively gotten worst each game on D (outside Michigan, but you could find rec ball teams who could run with them)

I don't know where that blurb is from, but it doesn't agree with the summary here from 2010-2018:

Again, the data here favored offenses, showing that in terms of NCAA tournament success, a team’s performance in offensive rating was approximately 50 percent more important than its performance in opponent offensive rating....

The average Final Four team’s offense ranks around No. 39 in the country, and their defense near No. 55. If we focus on national champions, those numbers get even better, at approximately No. 21 for offenses and No. 42 for defenses.

As well as here (looks like 2003-2022):

A look at KenPom data illustrates that point.

Seventeen of the last 20 NCAA champions finished in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency, which measures points scored per 100 possessions. Four – Florida in its 2007 repeat, UNC in 2009, Duke in 2010 and Villanova in 2018 – were ranked No. 1. And 14 champions have ranked better in offensive than defensive efficiency, including every year going back to Duke in 2015.

By comparison, 10 of the 20 champions finished outside the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency for points allowed per 100 possessions. That includes the past two champs, Kansas last year (17th, 91.7) and Baylor in 2021 (22nd, 91.1).
 
#89      

pruman91

Paducah, Ky
If we play defense Saturday like we did against psu the Freeman will have a career night even though he is a frosh.....the dude can ball down low.....He's done it against better defense's in the paint than what I saw the illini play last night..........

Let's hope our offense can maintain it's high level of production and hope our home court fan base will elevate them to get a win...

I'm not confident at all , but hope springs eternal.....It really really does...........................JMHO............
 
#91      

skyIdub

Winged Warrior
Can anyone offer some insight into why Guerrier has disappeared for the past month?
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#92      

DICKnaggie

Champaign
If the coach won't, then the players have to get in his grill. How often must they go 4 on 5 because he is sulking in the backcourt?
I absolutely agree and wrote the same in the game thread. The players have got to be tired of that cr*p.
 
#93      

I'm of the opinion that he is hurt and playing through something. Lack of sleep probably affects a lot of things but I feel like when you step between the lines of the court all the switches will turn on.
 
#94      

skyIdub

Winged Warrior
I'm of the opinion that he is hurt and playing through something. Lack of sleep probably affects a lot of things but I feel like when you step between the lines of the court all the switches will turn on.

Yeah, I was just funnin'!
 
#97      

USAFILLINI

Florida
I don't know where that blurb is from, but it doesn't agree with the summary here from 2010-2018:



As well as here (looks like 2003-2022):
Thats what I get for snagging the first thing I saw. Below are the Kenpom Ratings for the National Championship winner. You are correct that Offense is more important (outside 2014 with Uconn/2013 with Louisville) but outside Baylor in 2021 no one has been outside of the top 20 in ADJD.

Illinois's current standings
KenPom ADJD Rank: 58
KenPom ADJO Rank: 5

Another interesting thing, BU outside of the 2021 season, hasnt had a top 25 ADJD standing with any team he has coached.


2023- Uconn KenPom ADJD Rank: 7
KenPom ADJO Rank: 3

2022- Kansas KenPom ADJD Rank: 17
KenPom ADJO Rank: 6

2021- Baylor KenPom ADJD Rank: 22
KenPom ADJO Rank: 2

2019- UVA KenPom ADJD Rank: 5
KenPom ADJO Rank: 2

2018- Nova KenPom ADJD Rank: 11
KenPom ADJO Rank:1

2017- UNC KenPom ADJD Rank: 11
KenPom ADJO Rank: 9

2016- Nova KenPom ADJD Rank: 5
KenPom ADJO Rank: 3

2015- Duke KenPom ADJD Rank: 11
KenPom ADJO Rank: 3

2014- Uconn KenPom ADJD Rank: 10
KenPom ADJO Rank: 39

2013- Louisville KenPom ADJD Rank: 1
KenPom ADJO Rank: 7
 
#99      
More precisely, I don’t think the tournament games matter more than any other game during the season, and for anyone except for a few select teams the tournament games aren’t significant enough to influence a seasons worth of games.

For example, using the committee’s first seeding and current B10 standings and assuming Illini play highest possible seed each round while making the final game.

Illinois adds wins against Iowa (63, Quad 2) and Wisconsin (21, Quad 1).

Their Quad 1 record improves to 5-5 and Quad 2 5-2.

Duke is currently the lowest 3 seed with Quad 1 record of 6-2, and Quad 2 of 2-2.

Does Illini team sheet change meaningfully in that scenario? Is 4-5 Q1 vs 5-5 Q1 really make a difference after 30 games to bump Illini up from a 4 seed to a 3 seed?

View attachment 31365
This would be an awesome draw - avoid Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern and Mich State til championship.
 
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