Only one more sleep til Thursday!
His garlic noodle recipe isTell me you watch J. Kenji Lopez-Alt without telling me you watch J. Kenji Lopez-Alt.
Was going with their starters.
This is exactly where I see the game being decided. The first pass out of the double is crucial. If Iowa State jumps that pass and gets a number of steals, they will probably win. If Illinois can make the right decisions and the extra pass, there will be open shots. It will be interesting to see how TSJ impacts their rotations. I see a world where TSJ gets 1 on 1 drives to the basket if Iowa State rotates and leaves his defender 1v1 against him with no help.My thoughts exactly. If a team likes to trap as much as Iowa St. does, it helps when you have tall players that can see over the trapping players and find open guys on the opposite side of the court. We should get a ton of open 3's in this game. Make a decent percentage of them and I like our chances.
We usually went to Florida for spring break. I am not sure I did it correctly.My top 3 reasons to be optimistic about this game are:
- Our age/experience edge: We are both older and more experienced. Our KP playing time weighted years of experience (3.11) is 11th in the country and 3rd out of the Sweet 16 teams (behind UNC and Creighton). ISU's is 124th in the country and 13th of the Sweet 16 teams, and includes having a freshman and sophomore as 2 of their 3 leading scorers.
- Our talent level - Think we have more dudes overall, including the best and most dominant player on the floor playing his best ball ever.
- Brad's experience with aggressive defenses designed to force TOs (including his own in different seasons), and the tactics used to mitigate/maneuver around them. Our positional size advantage on the perimeter (Illini's KP playing time weighted average height is 8th in the country and 1st of the Sweet 16 teams, compared to ISU at 100th in the country and 11th of the Sweet 16) should prove helpful in shooting over defenders and passing out of double teams.
Expect a great game and an Illini victory. That said, this will be the acid test for our no true PG approach, and we will need to keep the ball moving and play smart and focused. Wouldn't be surprised if ISU leads early, and Illini find a rhythm/adjusts to their style as the game progresses.
Headed to Scandinavia for spring break and will be wearing orange somewhere over the Atlantic when the game concludes... so fingers crossed.
Wow - love their stuff. Watch all of them.I usually hate these guys if I’m being honest. But this was actually a decent watch
I agree. I said TSJ needs to be aggressive in a half court setting in order for us to win the game.Those guys do a good job of just discussing the game like intelligent fans do- not too technical but they know an impressive amount about every team in the big ten
I think they are underselling TSJ in the half court though, the days of him just standing in a corner while MD does his thing in the half court have been long gone in this 6 game stretch post the PU loss
TSJ is hitting open threes, driving to the hoop and creating his own shot in the half court
I will first say that past history only means so much here, and Thursday will likely be a war with either team capable of winning. However, RE: That post that the top defense is 5-4 vs. the top offense, I wanted to look into those matchups:
TIMES THE TOP OFFENSE WON
2022-23: #9 Arizona 75, #6 Tennessee 70 in Tucson, AZ
2015-16: Notre Dame 71, #13 Louisville 66 in South Bend, IN
2015-16: Duke 72, #13 Louisville 65 in Durham, NC
2014-15: #3 Wisconsin 71, #1 Kentucky 64 in Indianapolis, IN (Final Four)
TIMES THE TOP DEFENSE WON
2022-23: #11 Texas 93, #2 Gonzaga 74 in Austin, TX
2019-20: #2 Kentucky 69, #1 Michigan State 62 in New York, NY (first game of season)
2018-19: #9 Texas Tech 75, #4 Gonzaga 69 in Anaheim, CA (Elite Eight)
2015-16: #2 Kentucky 74, #5 Duke 63 in Chicago, IL
2012-13: #2 Louisville 82, #10 Michigan 76 in Atlanta, GA (National Championship)
Not TOO many takeaways here, but it is still interesting.
- It at least has to be noted that 3 of the 5 wins for the top defense took place in NOVEMBER of those years, with Kentucky over MSU in 2019-20 literally being the first game. I have to question how refined the rankings are by that point.
- The top offense usually actually did NOT get wins by scoring a bunch of points on the top defenses ... we might not want to rely on a shootout!
- Conversely, the top defenses scored 74 or more points in 4 of the 5 wins. Seems kind of paradoxical.
- 3 of the 4 wins for the top offenses came at home, where teams generally shoot better. However, again, the offenses were not scoring that many points so it was hardly a case of a rare offensive explosion bolstered by the home court advantage.
- There are 3 NCAA Tournament games on that list. The top offense won 71-64 in the Final Four. The top defense won 75-69 in the Elite Eight and 82-76 in the National Championship. Take that FWIW!
Again, doesn't really tell us much (at least IMO), but it's notable that all of these games were relatively close except for a Champions Classic game in 2015-16 and a rare beatdown of Gonzaga last year by Texas.
This Illini team isn't just the best offense this year, it's historically great. I know it's tough to compare Kenpom numbers across years, but it's fair to say that this team is special. I still think it hinges on how well we play on the other end.I will first say that past history only means so much here, and Thursday will likely be a war with either team capable of winning. However, RE: That post that the top defense is 5-4 vs. the top offense, I wanted to look into those matchups:
TIMES THE TOP OFFENSE WON
2022-23: #9 Arizona 75, #6 Tennessee 70 in Tucson, AZ
2015-16: Notre Dame 71, #13 Louisville 66 in South Bend, IN
2015-16: Duke 72, #13 Louisville 65 in Durham, NC
2014-15: #3 Wisconsin 71, #1 Kentucky 64 in Indianapolis, IN (Final Four)
TIMES THE TOP DEFENSE WON
2022-23: #11 Texas 93, #2 Gonzaga 74 in Austin, TX
2019-20: #2 Kentucky 69, #1 Michigan State 62 in New York, NY (first game of season)
2018-19: #9 Texas Tech 75, #4 Gonzaga 69 in Anaheim, CA (Elite Eight)
2015-16: #2 Kentucky 74, #5 Duke 63 in Chicago, IL
2012-13: #2 Louisville 82, #10 Michigan 76 in Atlanta, GA (National Championship)
Not TOO many takeaways here, but it is still interesting.
- It at least has to be noted that 3 of the 5 wins for the top defense took place in NOVEMBER of those years, with Kentucky over MSU in 2019-20 literally being the first game. I have to question how refined the rankings are by that point.
- The top offense usually actually did NOT get wins by scoring a bunch of points on the top defenses ... we might not want to rely on a shootout!
- Conversely, the top defenses scored 74 or more points in 4 of the 5 wins. Seems kind of paradoxical.
- 3 of the 4 wins for the top offenses came at home, where teams generally shoot better. However, again, the offenses were not scoring that many points so it was hardly a case of a rare offensive explosion bolstered by the home court advantage.
- There are 3 NCAA Tournament games on that list. The top offense won 71-64 in the Final Four. The top defense won 75-69 in the Elite Eight and 82-76 in the National Championship. Take that FWIW!
Again, doesn't really tell us much (at least IMO), but it's notable that all of these games were relatively close except for a Champions Classic game in 2015-16 and a rare beatdown of Gonzaga last year by Texas.
Interesting the two best offenses who had by far the worst defenses won their games. Given those were both at home for the offense team probably hard to take much from that. Unless I’m misreading it our adj d on Kenpom is 101.3 vs 99.7 for 50th which doesn’t feel like much. On offense we are 126.7 vs 114.2 for 50th which is pretty significantly better imo. May not be evaluating that appropriately though.I've seen this graphic rolling around, and it's interesting - however, it leaves out some really important information in the corresponding, non-#1 defense/offense ranks of those teams.
Here's an analysis with the spread (via KenPom predicted margin of victory) taken into account. Still favors the D, although as always, small sample size considerations apply.
Biggest benefit IMO is his ability to go to the right as well as the left. Huge improvement is his ability to do that over last year. Enables him to find seams in the defense.Shannon has benefited massively from the change in charge rules this season. Prior to it, defenders could "slide" in at the last moment and get the call. Now, a defender needs to have both feet planted and be in position.
He's also improved his downhill game and his handles from last season. But the rule change has likely benefited him more than even those two factors.
Right now, I would be:Obviously, I want the Illini to win this game and go as far as possible, but with that being said, in my mind, winning last weekend to get to the 2nd weekend was the determining factor in evaluating the success of this season. Everything else is gravy! Some or most of you will disagree with this thought, but after going 19 years without a 2nd weekend, this has to count as a successful season.
I am confident the beloved will perform and play well tomorrow night, and win or lose, I can live with the result. For example, after the Loyola loss, I had a hard time functioning for several days! Maybe I am mellowing in my old age.
You KNOW TA is working the portal phone in the one pic.
I want to agree with you, but I'm not ready to think about it like that yet. As I see it, one team will win tomorrow, and it might as well be the orange and blue.Obviously, I want the Illini to win this game and go as far as possible, but with that being said, in my mind, winning last weekend to get to the 2nd weekend was the determining factor in evaluating the success of this season. Everything else is gravy! Some or most of you will disagree with this thought, but after going 19 years without a 2nd weekend, this has to count as a successful season.
I am confident the beloved will perform and play well tomorrow night, and win or lose, I can live with the result. For example, after the Loyola loss, I had a hard time functioning for several days! Maybe I am mellowing in my old age.
Interesting the two best offenses who had by far the worst defenses won their games. Given those were both at home for the offense team probably hard to take much from that. Unless I’m misreading it our adj d on Kenpom is 101.3 vs 99.7 for 50th which doesn’t feel like much. On offense we are 126.7 vs 114.2 for 50th which is pretty significantly better imo. May not be evaluating that appropriately though.
I tentatively agree and hope you are right! One thing I REALLY like about this offense is that it does not rely on being hot from three ... as Iowa has shown in the past, that can win you almost any game, but it can bring you down in the Tournament the second you're cold. We are currently shooting 35.3% from three on the year ... so look at our last six games (all wins) and the relatively little correlation with shooting below or above our average and still scoring a lot of points:This Illini team isn't just the best offense this year, it's historically great. I know it's tough to compare Kenpom numbers across years, but it's fair to say that this team is special. I still think it hinges on how well we play on the other end.
Those guys do a good job of just discussing the game like intelligent fans do- not too technical but they know an impressive amount about every team in the big ten
I think they are underselling TSJ in the half court though, the days of him just standing in a corner while MD does his thing in the half court have been long gone in this 6 game stretch post the PU loss
TSJ is hitting open threes, driving to the hoop and creating his own shot in the half court
Our starting five also averages to 22.2 even with still 19 year old Rodgers. Harmon is 22 it would be even higher with him.The NCAA men's tournament has a touch a grey this year- Nine of the Top 10 scorers are seniors- 296 players are in their 4th, 5th, or 6th years. And the wildest stat? North Carolina's starting five (22.2) has roughly the same average age as the OKC Thunder (22.6) https://www.wsj.com/sports/basketba...=desktopwebshare_permalink&st=8gfz8mdo9mu5r57
Brad rocking the Bill Belichick look in New England?