Only one more sleep til Thursday!
Pregame: Illinois vs Iowa State, Thursday, March 28th, 9:09pm CT, TBS
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IlliniKat91
- Chicago, IL
His garlic noodle recipe is
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Gotcha, makes sense. In the stats I'm looking at, C. Jones has played a higher percentage of minutes than either King or R. Jones - but I wonder if they won't go with a lineup of 3 smaller guards as much against us, given our height. Another dynamic that will be interesting to watch!
OrangeBlue98
- Des Moines, IA
This is exactly where I see the game being decided. The first pass out of the double is crucial. If Iowa State jumps that pass and gets a number of steals, they will probably win. If Illinois can make the right decisions and the extra pass, there will be open shots. It will be interesting to see how TSJ impacts their rotations. I see a world where TSJ gets 1 on 1 drives to the basket if Iowa State rotates and leaves his defender 1v1 against him with no help.
As I’ve said before, it’s a fascinating chess match. Brad and Tyler are going up against a well-coached defensive scheme. It won’t be easy to crack, but if they can there will be open looks.
MDchicago
- Lake Norman NC
My top 3 reasons to be optimistic about this game are:
- Our age/experience edge: We are both older and more experienced. Our KP playing time weighted years of experience (3.11) is 11th in the country and 3rd out of the Sweet 16 teams (behind UNC and Creighton). ISU's is 124th in the country and 13th of the Sweet 16 teams, and includes having a freshman and sophomore as 2 of their 3 leading scorers.
- Our talent level - Think we have more dudes overall, including the best and most dominant player on the floor playing his best ball ever.
- Brad's experience with aggressive defenses designed to force TOs (including his own in different seasons), and the tactics used to mitigate/maneuver around them. Our positional size advantage on the perimeter (Illini's KP playing time weighted average height is 8th in the country and 1st of the Sweet 16 teams, compared to ISU at 100th in the country and 11th of the Sweet 16) should prove helpful in shooting over defenders and passing out of double teams.
Expect a great game and an Illini victory. That said, this will be the acid test for our no true PG approach, and we will need to keep the ball moving and play smart and focused. Wouldn't be surprised if ISU leads early, and Illini find a rhythm/adjusts to their style as the game progresses.
Headed to Scandinavia for spring break and will be wearing orange somewhere over the Atlantic when the game concludes... so fingers crossed.
- Our age/experience edge: We are both older and more experienced. Our KP playing time weighted years of experience (3.11) is 11th in the country and 3rd out of the Sweet 16 teams (behind UNC and Creighton). ISU's is 124th in the country and 13th of the Sweet 16 teams, and includes having a freshman and sophomore as 2 of their 3 leading scorers.
- Our talent level - Think we have more dudes overall, including the best and most dominant player on the floor playing his best ball ever.
- Brad's experience with aggressive defenses designed to force TOs (including his own in different seasons), and the tactics used to mitigate/maneuver around them. Our positional size advantage on the perimeter (Illini's KP playing time weighted average height is 8th in the country and 1st of the Sweet 16 teams, compared to ISU at 100th in the country and 11th of the Sweet 16) should prove helpful in shooting over defenders and passing out of double teams.
Expect a great game and an Illini victory. That said, this will be the acid test for our no true PG approach, and we will need to keep the ball moving and play smart and focused. Wouldn't be surprised if ISU leads early, and Illini find a rhythm/adjusts to their style as the game progresses.
Headed to Scandinavia for spring break and will be wearing orange somewhere over the Atlantic when the game concludes... so fingers crossed.
RichardKeenesCousin
Richard Keene's Cousin
We usually went to Florida for spring break. I am not sure I did it correctly.
Bigtex
- DFW
Wow - love their stuff. Watch all of them.
I agree. I said TSJ needs to be aggressive in a half court setting in order for us to win the game.
Obviously, I want the Illini to win this game and go as far as possible, but with that being said, in my mind, winning last weekend to get to the 2nd weekend was the determining factor in evaluating the success of this season. Everything else is gravy! Some or most of you will disagree with this thought, but after going 19 years without a 2nd weekend, this has to count as a successful season.
I am confident the beloved will perform and play well tomorrow night, and win or lose, I can live with the result. For example, after the Loyola loss, I had a hard time functioning for several days! Maybe I am mellowing in my old age.
I am confident the beloved will perform and play well tomorrow night, and win or lose, I can live with the result. For example, after the Loyola loss, I had a hard time functioning for several days! Maybe I am mellowing in my old age.
ILLdanielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
I've seen this graphic rolling around, and it's interesting - however, it leaves out some really important information in the corresponding, non-#1 defense/offense ranks of those teams.
Here's an analysis with the spread (via KenPom predicted margin of victory) taken into account. Still favors the D, although as always, small sample size considerations apply.
This Illini team isn't just the best offense this year, it's historically great. I know it's tough to compare Kenpom numbers across years, but it's fair to say that this team is special. I still think it hinges on how well we play on the other end.
Interesting the two best offenses who had by far the worst defenses won their games. Given those were both at home for the offense team probably hard to take much from that. Unless I’m misreading it our adj d on Kenpom is 101.3 vs 99.7 for 50th which doesn’t feel like much. On offense we are 126.7 vs 114.2 for 50th which is pretty significantly better imo. May not be evaluating that appropriately though.
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Biggest benefit IMO is his ability to go to the right as well as the left. Huge improvement is his ability to do that over last year. Enables him to find seams in the defense.
Chad Fleck
- Eureka, IL
Right now, I would be:
1. Disappointed with an Iowa State blowout.
2. Content with a close Illinois loss to Iowa State.
3. Very happy with any Illinois win vs. Iowa State.
4. Disappointed with any loss to SDSU in the E8.
5. Elated with a FF trip over SDSU.
6. Completely content with any loss to UConn.
7. Over the freaking moon with any win vs. UConn to get to a FF.
That's all the further I can prepare myself for.
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drsmitty74
- Rochester
You KNOW TA is working the portal phone in the one pic.
RichardKeenesCousin
Richard Keene's Cousin
I want to agree with you, but I'm not ready to think about it like that yet. As I see it, one team will win tomorrow, and it might as well be the orange and blue.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Good read, yes. The drop-off in rankings after 50th or so is much faster, so those numbers aren't the most representative--but they're easier to compare across seasons.
The predictions account for the actual adjO and adjD. I agree the results with the most unbalanced offensive teams are interesting. Both would have been underdogs on a neutral floor; that Duke/Louisville game is probably the closest comp to tomorrow. But both beat the spread by 4-5 points.
OrangeBlue98
- Des Moines, IA
Not a big deal in the grand scheme of things, but I was really hoping for a parquet floor in TD Garden with the NCAA branding.
I think it was 2018, but the NCAA did this for the East Regional and I thought it was a fantastic nod to the history of basketball in the city.
EDIT-it was 2012, and a parquet floor costs about 80K more than a regular floor. So I can understand why there’s no parquet floor.
I think it was 2018, but the NCAA did this for the East Regional and I thought it was a fantastic nod to the history of basketball in the city.
EDIT-it was 2012, and a parquet floor costs about 80K more than a regular floor. So I can understand why there’s no parquet floor.
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The NCAA men's tournament has a touch a grey this year- Nine of the Top 10 scorers are seniors- 296 players are in their 4th, 5th, or 6th years. And the wildest stat? North Carolina's starting five (22.2) has roughly the same average age as the OKC Thunder (22.6) https://www.wsj.com/sports/basketba...=desktopwebshare_permalink&st=8gfz8mdo9mu5r57
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I tentatively agree and hope you are right! One thing I REALLY like about this offense is that it does not rely on being hot from three ... as Iowa has shown in the past, that can win you almost any game, but it can bring you down in the Tournament the second you're cold. We are currently shooting 35.3% from three on the year ... so look at our last six games (all wins) and the relatively little correlation with shooting below or above our average and still scoring a lot of points:
31.3% at Iowa ... W 73-61
26.7% vs. Ohio State (BTT) ... W 77-74
37.1% vs. Nebraska (BTT) ... W 98-87
35.0% vs. Wisconsin (BTT) ... W 93-87
46.2% vs. Morehead State (NCAAT) ... W 85-69
33.3% vs. Duquesne (NCAAT) ... W 89-63
So, we shot above our average in 2 games and below it in 4 games, winning all 4. In the two games we shot above our average, we averaged 91.5 PPG. In the 4 games we shot below our average, we averaged 83.0 PPG. So even if we are shooting below average from three, we are dropping 83 points on teams, haha. If we get hot from three, look out ... such as 97 points vs. Michigan shooting 48.0% from deep or 105 points vs. Minnesota shooting 45.5% from deep.
My biggest concern is passing against an elite defense. I think some of what we do is a bit dodgy, and won't fly against a team like Iowa St or Houston (although they have differences in how they defend). How the game is called may be a big factor as well. Really curious how they do --should be intense.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Our starting five also averages to 22.2 even with still 19 year old Rodgers. Harmon is 22 it would be even higher with him.
Brad rocking the Bill Belichick look in New England?
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