Pregame: Illinois vs Maryland, Saturday, January 14th, 5:00pm CT, ESPN2

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#26      

Old Number 51

O
Old Number 51
FeelYourPaign said:
Currently sitting at Illinois 72, MD 70
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Great win with a good lineup.....
1. We passed well and often.
2. Played hard on defense, still made some mistakes but made up for it in hustle.
3. Shot the lights out (helped by open looks due to assists)

But........

Even kenpom is drinking the orange koolaid after last nights game

IF Groce keeps with this lineup - Maryland 80 Illini 75

If Groce goes back to less minutes for TJL and Kipper - Maryland 90 Illini 68
 
#27      

TownieMatt

T
CU Expat
Chicago
TownieMatt
Have to continue to hold serve at home. We should be fired up after the drumming we took at their place. If we decide to play defense and rebound in this one, we'll get the win. If we play that run and gun garbage, we will lose big again.
 
#28      

ChiefIllini

C
ChiefIllini
Get the ball inside to MM and let LB get his early. We tried doing this almost every game so far, and it seems when it works, the rest of the team settles down, but if it doesnt, we get worried when we miss a couple from point blank. Trully believe the IU game would've been different if Thorne would've made a shot or two early.

Not sure why people act as if we were in a hole and the scUM win is just the first step out of it. I always thought before the last game, we would need 1 out of 4 to stay safe. We got that last night. I think we moved from the negative to positive side of the bubble with the Mich win.

This game gives us a chance to stay positive. If we lose its not the end of the world and we wont have to be teams like Wisc or Purdue just to have a chance to make the tourney. If we do lose it probably means we are gonna have to win another road game.

As for predictions--Maryland is too much of a mismatch for us. Esp with their bigs coming back. Inside out scoring is a must and we've done a reallly good job drawing fouls the past two games. Make them work for the win and we have a chance to pull this one out. I think we go into the half losing, lots of lead changes early in the 2nd, eventually they pull away. 79-70 turtles.
 
#31      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
ChiefIllini said:
Not sure why people act as if we were in a hole and the scUM win is just the first step out of it. I always thought before the last game, we would need 1 out of 4 to stay safe. We got that last night. I think we moved from the negative to positive side of the bubble with the Mich win.
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Squeaking in on the right side of the bubble by the skin of our teeth is not the goal here. That's why the scUM win is just the first step.

We looked like an upper-middle-class Big Ten team that would make the tournament comfortably and be a handful when we get there last night. The possibility of that happening is why John Groce is still here. I want to see that team going forward, and that team is going to cause Maryland a lot of problems and ought to hold serve at home.
 
#32      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
cjcastan said:
Doubling down on our strengths is the only way forward this season
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Yup. There's not a version of this team that locks up good offenses. It appears there may be a version of this team that has too many creators and can just outscore you. Is that an illusion of a hot shooting night against a bad defense at home with a couple of new players that the league hasn't scouted yet? We're about to find out.
 
#33      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
Ransom Stoddard said:
The big question is if the DIA can make the FIGHTING ILLINI uniform our regulars so the team can wear them on the road.
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I'm sure there's a 1000% chance we're wearing them again.

I am a huge advocate of the rebrand in general, but our "regular" white uniform seems to combine all of the elements of it that were loose ends or not quite well thought out, with none of the good.

Get rid of the two-tone lettering, ditch the zig-zag and tie the football "columns" striping into the basketball unis and do the "Fighting Illini" wordmark above and below the numbers in our new font (maybe just on the home whites), and you're folding some of the appeal of the throwbacks into what's been successful about the rebrand.

But that's a next year thing. For now, until we lose in them, it's gotta be the throwbacks whenever they are available.
 
#34      

WesterveltVictoryCigar

WesterveltVictoryCigar
WesterveltVictoryCigar
Second and Chalmers said:
Yup. There's not a version of this team that locks up good offenses. It appears there may be a version of this team that has too many creators and can just outscore you. Is that an illusion of a hot shooting night against a bad defense at home with a couple of new players that the league hasn't scouted yet? We're about to find out.
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Sounds like a spring creaning? :)
 
#35      

FatGreg

F
FatGreg
Tracy hit 28 of his first 46 three-pointers to start the year (61%). He's now 2 for his last 19 (10.5%). Hopefully this game he gets back on track and goes 3-5 or something.

Including B1G play, here are Tracy's averages in eight games against P5 competition: 24 mpg, 6.6 pts, 1.8 reb, 1.1 ast, 0.9 stl, 1.4 t/o, 32% fg, 20% 3pt. Hope he can give us something going forward.
 
#36      

FollowTisdale

F
FollowTisdale
The Rotation

We played what I consider our best half of offensive basketball of the season in the second half of the NCST game. Blew them out of the water, played fast, Tejon played the entire half and Tate 0 minutes.

Last night, offense looked good, shot well, lots of assists (unheard of for a Groce offense), Tate played 0 minutes and Tejon got the tick that he should have started getting every game after the NCST game.

Just play a real point guard and we might have the kind of offense that can upset a team or 2. Ole Groce played Tejon only 5 minutes in the VCU game that immediately followed NCST and only 11 minutes in the following IUPUI game that we had to sneak out. We'll probably lose to Maryland anyway, I really hope not, but if we do lose, then lose playing a real point guard and not playing 4 on 5 offense.
 
#37      

whovous

W
Washington, DC
whovous
Second and Chalmers said:
We looked like an upper-middle-class Big Ten team that would make the tournament comfortably and be a handful when we get there last night. The possibility of that happening is why John Groce is still here. I want to see that team going forward, and that team is going to cause Maryland a lot of problems and ought to hold serve at home.
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I want to see that team going forward as well, but that would require the same Illinois team to show up for two games in a row. How often does that happen? It seems that only the truly elite teams show up for every game.
 
#38      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
Not that this game is a gimme by any stretch of the imagination, but I think folks are slightly overrating Maryland and slightly underrating Michigan.

Michigan is #47 on KenPom and Maryland is #55, and that's AFTER Maryland beat IU and Michigan got blown out by us.

Given that Maryland just beat Michigan at Michigan that feels a bit off, but I don't think there's the world of difference between these teams that their starts in conference play indicate.
 
#39      

ChiefIllini

C
ChiefIllini
Second and Chalmers said:
Squeaking in on the right side of the bubble by the skin of our teeth is not the goal here. That's why the scUM win is just the first step.

We looked like an upper-middle-class Big Ten team that would make the tournament comfortably and be a handful when we get there last night. The possibility of that happening is why John Groce is still here. I want to see that team going forward, and that team is going to cause Maryland a lot of problems and ought to hold serve at home.
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Yeah I agree, we could be an 8 or 9 seed if we win games like this one, but a few people seem to have this notion that before the Mich game, we were dead in the water. They make it sound like we had no shot before last night to even think about making the tourney. The fact of the matter is unless we go on a 3 or 4 game tear with a couple of road victories, I dont see us losing games against good competition the end all for this season. Theres so many winnable games that even if we lose our next three I'd still say we have a good shot at being on the bubble.

I think MD is a tourney team, in fact I think they finish 4th in the conference this year (though thats not really saying much). This game is more about our team identity then it is a must win. If we play well and dont make the mistake of letting a team get on a huge run early, then even if we lose, our team has at least proven they've changed. Of course winning would give us leeway we dont have right not, but I'd rather see us have consistent offensive positions last night and play a tight game, then to win and get lucky because both teams were playing sloppy. A win is good but sometimes a team needs to develop into something more than just a collection of talent. Last night was a good first step and I think MD is a fantastic opportunity to gauge where we truly are.
 
#40      

WesterveltVictoryCigar

WesterveltVictoryCigar
WesterveltVictoryCigar
Second and Chalmers said:
Not that this game is a gimme by any stretch of the imagination, but I think folks are slightly overrating Maryland and slightly underrating Michigan.

Michigan is #47 on KenPom and Maryland is #55, and that's AFTER Maryland beat IU and Michigan got blown out by us.

Given that Maryland just beat Michigan at Michigan that feels a bit off, but I don't think there's the world of difference between these teams that their starts in conference play indicate.
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Maryland fans really hate Pomeroy, there's a thread dedicated to him on their board. They feel he's overvaluing early season blowout wins, which may have some validity.

Of course if they were higher in his rankings, they'd have a thread dedicated to how great his formulas are.
 
#42      

ChiefIllini

C
ChiefIllini
Second and Chalmers said:
Eh. I feel like we need 8 more wins to get in. Maryland at home looks to me like it's clearly one of the 8 likeliest wins left on the schedule.
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It is one of the winnable games. Only games I dont see as winnable are @PU and Wisc. possibly MSU. Thats 11 or 12 games. Things get tighter if we dont beat MD. Certainly other clear opportunities exist however. Sadly we probably do need 8, barring a couple wins in the BTT. If I had to choose 8 most winnable games it would be: RU, Iowa x2, NW, PSU x2, @NEB, and either Minny or @Mich. All those games seem more likely than winning Saturday given how poorly we played at MD.
 
#43      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
ChiefIllini said:
If I had to choose 8 most winnable games it would be: RU, Iowa x2, NW, PSU x2, @NEB, and either Minny or @Mich. All those games seem more likely than winning Saturday given how poorly we played at MD.
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I think you're underrating home court advantage.

Lets just win and make this moot, shall we?
 
#44      

JIllini

J
JIllini
ChiefIllini said:
It is one of the winnable games. Only games I dont see as winnable are @PU and Wisc. possibly MSU. Thats 11 or 12 games. Things get tighter if we dont beat MD. Certainly other clear opportunities exist however. Sadly we probably do need 8, barring a couple wins in the BTT. If I had to choose 8 most winnable games it would be: RU, Iowa x2, NW, PSU x2, @NEB, and either Minny or @Mich. All those games seem more likely than winning Saturday given how poorly we played at MD.
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I wouldn't go so far as to say Wisconsin isn't beatable. They look good so far but not elite. Don't underestimate home court advantage. The toughest game left on the schedule is @Purdue. Even then I wouldn't call that unwinnable, although a win is very unlikely. I just don't like the word unwinnable because anything can happen.
 
#45      

EfremWinters84

E
S. Carolina
EfremWinters84
Guard rotation (1/2 positions): TJL, Abrams, JCL
Forward rotation (3/4 positions): MH, KN and LB
Center rotation (5 position): MM and Finke

This 8-man rotation should get 95+% of the minutes. Finke can also play the 4, of course. Combine these 8 players with the fact we're playing this one at home.......

ILL 76
MD 71

(I was most impressed last time by MD's pressure defense. They really pushed us outside and we couldn't get anything going. We need to fix this.)
 
#46      

Whitman2020

W
Whitman2020
We needed a win out of the two MD games from the beginning. I'm glad we are playing the 2nd one at home with a full first person scouting experience to plan on.
 
#47      

ILL in IA

ILL in IA
Iowa City
ILL in IA
FatGreg said:
Tracy hit 28 of his first 46 three-pointers to start the year (61%). He's now 2 for his last 19 (10.5%). Hopefully this game he gets back on track and goes 3-5 or something.

Including B1G play, here are Tracy's averages in eight games against P5 competition: 24 mpg, 6.6 pts, 1.8 reb, 1.1 ast, 0.9 stl, 1.4 t/o, 32% fg, 20% 3pt. Hope he can give us something going forward.
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Better yet, pump fake and pass to JCL. He hit what, 9 3's in the last 2 games. Feed the hot hand. And Leron taking the Nanna approach of taking at least 1 3 a game needs to stop. They look bad. Stick to the mid range game.
 
#48      

ILL in IA

ILL in IA
Iowa City
ILL in IA
EfremWinters84 said:
Guard rotation (1/2 positions): TJL, Abrams, JCL
Forward rotation (3/4 positions): MH, KN and LB
Center rotation (5 position): MM and Finke

This 8-man rotation should get 95+% of the minutes. Finke can also play the 4, of course. Combine these 8 players with the fact we're playing this one at home.......

ILL 76
MD 71

(I was most impressed last time by MD's pressure defense. They really pushed us outside and we couldn't get anything going. We need to fix this.)
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I still read KN as Nunn in my mind.
 
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