It’s pretty fun cmon now.
Pregame: Illinois vs Maryland, Wednesday, January 21st, 6:00pm CT, BTN
- Status
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
This is apparently what our practices look likeI’m still pissed.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
I think some extended run will help Petrovic. I realize how he has looked in limited minutes, but that is exactly what it is, imo: he hasn't had enough stretches in actual games to get a true feel for actual B1G or otherwise high-major D1 basketball.
We cannot sit here and think that an Adriatic League MVP candidate has just forgotten how to play basketball. He is 23, has elite quickness and very good court vision.
That said, I think you're going to see more Jake, Ben and even short stints of Lee (for defense) than we will a gargantuan uptick in minutes for Petrovic, even though he is the only other natural point guard option on the roster.
Like others have said, we'll need to worry about his defensive ability. But, with his quickness and foot speed, he should be able to effectively guard smaller players. The challenge for him is going to be ball screens. If teams work a ton of off the ball stuff like Minnesota, he will have no issues surviving on that end. If teams hit him with ball screen after ball screen after ball screen, he's going to have a rough go. Extremely small sample size, but compare his DRtg of 106.3 to Boswell's 106.1 (and if you don't believe in DRtg at all, despite the admittedly small sample, that's okay too... a lot of folks have been down on Boswell's defense here and there anyway and the DRtg somewhat supports that as 106.1 is not very good).
I'd expect us to start Davis at the 2 and he'll pick up 5-8 minutes (don't think we slide Andrej to the 2 and play Ben at the 3, Jake's just been so good it has to be him, imo). Then the remaining minutes, I'd expect to see a ton of Petro off the bench (20+ minutes) and a slight uptick for Ben (maybe 5 minutes). Ben needs to shoot it better, we can't justify playing him more right now while he's shooting 25% from 3 for the last month and a half.
Illinois 78
Maryland 63
We cannot sit here and think that an Adriatic League MVP candidate has just forgotten how to play basketball. He is 23, has elite quickness and very good court vision.
That said, I think you're going to see more Jake, Ben and even short stints of Lee (for defense) than we will a gargantuan uptick in minutes for Petrovic, even though he is the only other natural point guard option on the roster.
Like others have said, we'll need to worry about his defensive ability. But, with his quickness and foot speed, he should be able to effectively guard smaller players. The challenge for him is going to be ball screens. If teams work a ton of off the ball stuff like Minnesota, he will have no issues surviving on that end. If teams hit him with ball screen after ball screen after ball screen, he's going to have a rough go. Extremely small sample size, but compare his DRtg of 106.3 to Boswell's 106.1 (and if you don't believe in DRtg at all, despite the admittedly small sample, that's okay too... a lot of folks have been down on Boswell's defense here and there anyway and the DRtg somewhat supports that as 106.1 is not very good).
I'd expect us to start Davis at the 2 and he'll pick up 5-8 minutes (don't think we slide Andrej to the 2 and play Ben at the 3, Jake's just been so good it has to be him, imo). Then the remaining minutes, I'd expect to see a ton of Petro off the bench (20+ minutes) and a slight uptick for Ben (maybe 5 minutes). Ben needs to shoot it better, we can't justify playing him more right now while he's shooting 25% from 3 for the last month and a half.
Illinois 78
Maryland 63
Also if we are still a top 25ish team without Bam (I think we are) certainly not impossible to win at Mackey, Lincoln or Breslin. Teams in that range don’t win in those places often, but they certainly win there. Even with Bam, I would have called just getting one of three a success. Still very possible.
I’m sure it would help, but I just don’t know that Petro will get an extended run. Would mean taking the ball out of Keaton’s hands and I think we will continue to do that for 30+ minutes a night.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Took a day to "chill out" a bit RE: the Boswell injury, and I settled on these thoughts. I'll probably get slammed by someone who knows the Xs and Os of ball more than I do, but these are my gut feelings about the whole situation.
Negatives First...
1) I mean, the negatives almost don't need addressed, lol. However, I can't help but feel it is just cosmically creepy that this injury happens right before we host a Quad 4 opponent - something almost unheard of in the Big Ten - that has historically owned us in what can only be described as an excessively bizarre way. We have a number of guys who got flat-out embarrassed by Maryland twice last year and who should want revenge, regardless of what players stayed/left for the Terps ... I mean, you're a D1 athlete, you shouldn't need to dig that deeply for things to give you a little extra motivation! Unfortunately, I would have bet that Boswell would be the emotional leader of that revenge angle ... maybe he still can be from the bench.
2) This is the one that really gives me stress. People have brought up how we responded when Ayo was out in 2021, and I'll be the first to say I REALLY hope we see that type of response here!! However, my perception is that what made Ayo our star wasn't this ONE thing ... it was that he did everything well. Obviously he excelled in certain areas more than others, but the guy could shoot the three, drive to the hoop, play good defense, handle the ball, etc. And while no one player on the 2021 team combined all of these attributes in such a complete way, we DID have a cast of characters that could adequately address each one in isolation. Grandison had a higher 3-point shooting percentage, and Trent/Adam/Da'Monte/etc. could knock them down, even if it was less consistent. Giorgi and obviously Kofi were great close to the hoop. Curbelo and Trent could handle the ball. Trent, Adam, Da'Monte and pretty much most of the team were great defensively. The point is, while we obviously were better with Ayo, it wasn't as hard to imagine the "whole crew," as Underwood put it this week, stepping up and filling those roles well. What worries me about Boswell's absence is I just don't know who is going to step up and be a lockdown defender. Maybe someone will, and I certainly hope someone will ... but he was an essential piece of our defensive success.
Positives!
1) Maryland curse or not, the Terps are a very bad team. As far as our preferred setup before playing Purdue Saturday in light of this situation, Rutgers on a Wednesday night at home would literally be the only thing better we could have asked for. These guys need to have confidence that they can go out there and get in a groove over the course of two halves that we can take to Mackey!
2) Thankfully, while Boswell was a great piece to our offense and our second leading scorer, I don't think we have as much to worry about with our offense this time around as the 2021 team did. The 2021 team's PPG rankings went Ayo 20.1, Kofi 17.7, Trent 10.2, Curbelo 9.1, Adam 8.3 and Da'Monte 5.1. There was a LOT of production to create that hadn't previously been there when Ayo was out. Compare that to this year's more balanced scoring, with the player we are missing (Boswell) not being our PPG leader - 16.1 Wagler, 14.3 Boswell, 13.5 Andrej, 12.0 Mirk, 10.5 Tomi and 8.0 Z. I worry about the defense, but I AM confident that these guys can figure out a way to continue to score, while acknowledging Kylan's very important role in our offense and how he of course will be missed.
3) Somewhat contradicting my second negative point above (maybe wishful thinking!), these guys have ALL been playing much better defense lately, not just Kylan. Maybe a little extra motivation and urgency will keep that trend continuing.
4) While I want a Big Ten Championship and the best seed possible, this could end up serving as a valuable experience come March Madness. As others have mentioned, Petrovic will get some valuable PT, and other guys will see their roles change in ways that give them more responsibility and provide them with valuable learning experiences ... even if there are hiccups along the way. The end goal here is to go as far as we can in the NCAA Tournament, and everything along the way is a long process to hopefully be playing our best basketball, hopefully into April!
Let's go beat the Terps:
Halftime
Maryland 34
#11 Illinois 39
Final
Maryland 63
#11 Illinois 83
Negatives First...
1) I mean, the negatives almost don't need addressed, lol. However, I can't help but feel it is just cosmically creepy that this injury happens right before we host a Quad 4 opponent - something almost unheard of in the Big Ten - that has historically owned us in what can only be described as an excessively bizarre way. We have a number of guys who got flat-out embarrassed by Maryland twice last year and who should want revenge, regardless of what players stayed/left for the Terps ... I mean, you're a D1 athlete, you shouldn't need to dig that deeply for things to give you a little extra motivation! Unfortunately, I would have bet that Boswell would be the emotional leader of that revenge angle ... maybe he still can be from the bench.
2) This is the one that really gives me stress. People have brought up how we responded when Ayo was out in 2021, and I'll be the first to say I REALLY hope we see that type of response here!! However, my perception is that what made Ayo our star wasn't this ONE thing ... it was that he did everything well. Obviously he excelled in certain areas more than others, but the guy could shoot the three, drive to the hoop, play good defense, handle the ball, etc. And while no one player on the 2021 team combined all of these attributes in such a complete way, we DID have a cast of characters that could adequately address each one in isolation. Grandison had a higher 3-point shooting percentage, and Trent/Adam/Da'Monte/etc. could knock them down, even if it was less consistent. Giorgi and obviously Kofi were great close to the hoop. Curbelo and Trent could handle the ball. Trent, Adam, Da'Monte and pretty much most of the team were great defensively. The point is, while we obviously were better with Ayo, it wasn't as hard to imagine the "whole crew," as Underwood put it this week, stepping up and filling those roles well. What worries me about Boswell's absence is I just don't know who is going to step up and be a lockdown defender. Maybe someone will, and I certainly hope someone will ... but he was an essential piece of our defensive success.
Positives!
1) Maryland curse or not, the Terps are a very bad team. As far as our preferred setup before playing Purdue Saturday in light of this situation, Rutgers on a Wednesday night at home would literally be the only thing better we could have asked for. These guys need to have confidence that they can go out there and get in a groove over the course of two halves that we can take to Mackey!
2) Thankfully, while Boswell was a great piece to our offense and our second leading scorer, I don't think we have as much to worry about with our offense this time around as the 2021 team did. The 2021 team's PPG rankings went Ayo 20.1, Kofi 17.7, Trent 10.2, Curbelo 9.1, Adam 8.3 and Da'Monte 5.1. There was a LOT of production to create that hadn't previously been there when Ayo was out. Compare that to this year's more balanced scoring, with the player we are missing (Boswell) not being our PPG leader - 16.1 Wagler, 14.3 Boswell, 13.5 Andrej, 12.0 Mirk, 10.5 Tomi and 8.0 Z. I worry about the defense, but I AM confident that these guys can figure out a way to continue to score, while acknowledging Kylan's very important role in our offense and how he of course will be missed.
3) Somewhat contradicting my second negative point above (maybe wishful thinking!), these guys have ALL been playing much better defense lately, not just Kylan. Maybe a little extra motivation and urgency will keep that trend continuing.
4) While I want a Big Ten Championship and the best seed possible, this could end up serving as a valuable experience come March Madness. As others have mentioned, Petrovic will get some valuable PT, and other guys will see their roles change in ways that give them more responsibility and provide them with valuable learning experiences ... even if there are hiccups along the way. The end goal here is to go as far as we can in the NCAA Tournament, and everything along the way is a long process to hopefully be playing our best basketball, hopefully into April!
Let's go beat the Terps:
Halftime
Maryland 34
#11 Illinois 39
Final
Maryland 63
#11 Illinois 83
Time for Andrej to step up. He’s been more of a role player with Wagler stepping into our alpha role since the UConn game. He’s going to need to be good for us every game now. Slide Jake into the starting lineup. Run more stuff through Tomi and Mirk. Maybe we see a little more twin towers look that we did against Minny. Ben needs to start hitting some shots.
Id expect Wagler, Andre, Jake, Mirk, Tomi. Jake is shooting better than Ben is and Ben can back up Mirk. When Andre or Wagler sit i expect some Mihailo and Jake too
I would love to see us run more sets for Andrej where he only needs 1 or 2 dribbles to get to the rim. We've ran some BLOBs that gets him the ball at the elbow. More of that please.
I'm unsure Petrovic actually needs more usage than Kylan to be effective. Petrovic has a 26% usage rate compared to Kylan's 21%, but much of that has been due to who is on the floor with them. Petrovic has played a good amount of minutes where he's the only real natural ballhandler on the floor.
Think we will see Petrovic around 20 minutes, maybe a tick or two more. Depends on how well the Keaton/Jake lineups perform, surely we'll switch it up at least a little bit. There's been this misconception that Keaton has played 39.5 minutes per game and that just isn't accurate: 38, 33, 34, 32, 20, 27, 34 during our 7 game win streak (yes one of those was Penn St with the foul trouble).
If we play 12-15 minutes of Petro + Keaton, I don't think that is an automatic failure. In fact, if you look at it another way, it might provide Keaton even more opportunity than he currently has sharing the court with Boswell for double that number of minutes. It's not as if Boswell doesn't command usage too (as mentioned before, 21%)
Well see, if Petro runs the offense like we expected and is capable of it takes a lot of pressure off of Keaton having to initiate almost every time down the floor
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Right, Boswell has both allowed Wagler to dominate the ball and thrive while also being a safety valve to keep him from getting overexposed.
He expands and contracts his offensive game to be as much of a me-first scorer as the situation needs, which is incredibly useful. He's a lot like Trent Frazier in that way.
It's gonna suck to be without him, but it's an opportunity for others to step up and give us a fuller and more experienced team once we get everybody back together, gotta just take what silver lining we can get.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
Brad obviously needs to hire Cignetti as a consultant on the minimalist approach to practice. I hear the guy's got some free time this week.
I personally would like to see Brad put Petro in the starting lineup and give him some run but I don't think that's what he'll do. I imagine most likely Jake or maybe Ben will get the starting nod and Petro gets more time off the bench.
blackdog
- Champaign
I think what will happen is when Mirkovic/Wagler comes out Petrovic will be on the floor. Brad always likes to have two guys who can initiate offense and those three are the only real options right now.
ptgrd23
- orange county CA
From a scoring point of view this is deepest Illini team in a long time.
Keaton 17 ppg - deep 3 and posting up - only had 2 bad games out of 18
Kylan l 14 ppg - driving the lane and put backs -trending upward as needed (gets to take 1 month break to heal up)
Andre 14 ppg - drives the lane, draws fouls - highs of 23, 26 vs TT and Bama - averaged 18 ppg at CAL. Definitely can improve scoring to 18 ppg. has not been looking for shot. Needs to release early like TSJ and get baskets in open floor. Is this a conditioning issue?
Tomas 10 ppg - posts up and hits 3 - avg 13 ppg last year with illness - Definitely can improve scoring to 15 ppg.
David - 12 ppg - hits 3's drives lanes, put backs. Definitely can improve to 16 ppg
Big Z 8 ppg. If his minutes go up with twin tower lineup can go off for 14 ppg on more attempts. He is our cheat code against zone with lob pass
Wild cards
Hermano - get him 20 mpg playing I am sure he will deliver at least 10 ppg on drives to baskets and occasional 3
Ben - I don't know what happened to his 3 point shot. If it came back he could avg 10 ppg
Keaton 17 ppg - deep 3 and posting up - only had 2 bad games out of 18
Kylan l 14 ppg - driving the lane and put backs -trending upward as needed (gets to take 1 month break to heal up)
Andre 14 ppg - drives the lane, draws fouls - highs of 23, 26 vs TT and Bama - averaged 18 ppg at CAL. Definitely can improve scoring to 18 ppg. has not been looking for shot. Needs to release early like TSJ and get baskets in open floor. Is this a conditioning issue?
Tomas 10 ppg - posts up and hits 3 - avg 13 ppg last year with illness - Definitely can improve scoring to 15 ppg.
David - 12 ppg - hits 3's drives lanes, put backs. Definitely can improve to 16 ppg
Big Z 8 ppg. If his minutes go up with twin tower lineup can go off for 14 ppg on more attempts. He is our cheat code against zone with lob pass
Wild cards
Hermano - get him 20 mpg playing I am sure he will deliver at least 10 ppg on drives to baskets and occasional 3
Ben - I don't know what happened to his 3 point shot. If it came back he could avg 10 ppg
The C-guy might just work - stone-faced, doesn't smile, eagle-eyed, internally intense, will tear you a new-one if you screw up - bring him on - opposite of BU for a change of pace.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
Points taken; however, I hear that he provides a safe space for trash cans.
It really depends on how Petro is progressing defensively. I think he will do fine offensively as he gets into the flow. And if he doesn't, Keaton will be the primary ballhandler for the most part.
This game doesn't worry me that much, it's our next game. Who will guard Smith, with Boswell not out front. Might not be pretty.
It’s hard to imagine Petro getting more than 15 minutes due to this midsized mobile team we face UNLESS he is paired with Z.
Boz is our only lock down defender that can stay in front of the quick guards.
X is the rim protector and I see his minutes being increased the most depending on conditioning and fouls.
Pairing Petro with any combination of Tomi, Mirk, Hum, Davis without Z seems like it will be a disaster.
I’m predicting increased fouls by us too.
Still think we win but it might be ugly.
Boz is our only lock down defender that can stay in front of the quick guards.
X is the rim protector and I see his minutes being increased the most depending on conditioning and fouls.
Pairing Petro with any combination of Tomi, Mirk, Hum, Davis without Z seems like it will be a disaster.
I’m predicting increased fouls by us too.
Still think we win but it might be ugly.
- Status