Pregame: Illinois vs Michigan, Friday, February 27th, 7:00pm CT, FOX
- Status
I think what you’re trying to say is reality is different than the analytics, and while we have a shot on paper we actually do not have a shot in reality?
Just want to be sure you know the analytics are based on, you guessed it, reality. It’s an aggregation of actual results that occurred… in reality
Well, if “analytically we probably have a shot” then we also in actuality probably have a shot too, no?
Those three games you mentioned… we did have a “shot” (quite literally, in basketball terms) to win all of them.
Yup, also: what happened with the spreads in the Indiana and USC games? Illinois obliterated them.
Interesting ATS stats: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/illinois-fighting-illini/ats-trends
17-11 ATS this year so Illinois typically outperforms the analytics/vegas (not the other way around as is being claimed)
This might be controversial, but IMO winning or losing this one doesn't really change much when it comes to my hopes for a Final 4 run.
All I'm focused on is our offense. We have been insanely consistent on that end. Michigan, Michigan St, and Nebraska are the 3 best defenses in the B1G. Our offense has played well against MSU and Nebraska. Michigan is like the final boss. If we have another good performance against them then this offense is basically matchup proof. But if Michigan gives our offense problems, I'll start to get pretty pessimistic about us being a Final 4 contender.
If were a 3 seed do we get locked out of Chicago to protect the higher seeds?
If not I’d almost rather be the first 3 seed than a 2 seed out west.
That's my take. If they don't get together as a team and demand from each other to keep the foot on the gas until it's really over, then the seed isn't going to matter. If they don't know how to finish games, they won't go far in the post season. 3 OT losses should make that clear.
Prediction:
Michigan - 84
Illini - 73
Michigan - 84
Illini - 73
Illini seem to play at the level of the opponent. Should be a good game, close game.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
The post loss takes are the worst.
Yeah, the team whose average win is by 16.7 points per game in conference play plays to the level of their opponent.
Personally I think this would be the perfect game to put together 2 solid halfs of basketball in the same game. One of those games where everything goes right and there is no taking the foot off the wolverines throats
Depending on the announcers … TV might be on mute …
If we’re up 30 again and I hear it is favoring the other team … Immediately muted …
True. In my defense, it’s relatively better than the posts saying we lose by double digits. So, just a relatively bad take-not the worst.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
^^^ + the early pregame takes that follow on the heels of a loss.
I wasn't able to watch the UCLA game. Had a commitment; checked my phone from the early 2H onward. Didn't even think of looking at the postgame thread. Tucked into this thread yesterday evening and departed quickly.
We've lost four conference games. One in regulation on a crazy Nebraska trey. Three in OT, all three by a single possession, and two of those on the road. Could easily have won all four. We're #4 in KenPom. #6 in Torvik and there we're statistically indistinguishable from #3.
And yet the sky is falling and it's certain that we won't make it out of the first tournament weekend.
Is Michigan the better team? Yeah. Will we lose? Probably not. And if we do, go back and have a gander at the post-game summary of our games v. #6 Michigan at home in January 1989 and v. #8 Michigan in Ann Arbor on their Senior Day in March 1989. IIRC, Michigan had a very good team that year.
Get a grip, ye who have abandoned all hope. And see y'all Friday evening for what I expect to be the most riveting BT conference game of the year by a country mile.
Nobody has abandoned all hope. Even if we lose this game, there is always hope.
I will not speak for all posters, but I think the concern of many is that the way we have lost these games and the fact that we have, indeed, lost 6 games - probably half of which we should have won - is concerning given our recent struggles to make a very deep run in the tournament.
It's just simply half glass/half full. Nobody on here wants us NOT to do well. But there have been warning signs that we could have issues come tournament time. Yes, we have a generational offense. But the defense, intensity, and timely rebounding have let us down more than once. Those things can't happen in a second or third round game or we go home disappointed.
I will not speak for all posters, but I think the concern of many is that the way we have lost these games and the fact that we have, indeed, lost 6 games - probably half of which we should have won - is concerning given our recent struggles to make a very deep run in the tournament.
It's just simply half glass/half full. Nobody on here wants us NOT to do well. But there have been warning signs that we could have issues come tournament time. Yes, we have a generational offense. But the defense, intensity, and timely rebounding have let us down more than once. Those things can't happen in a second or third round game or we go home disappointed.
I don’t care to bemoan what we don’t have. Namely athleticism at most positions. We had Morez last year. TSJ the year prior. Ayo before that.
But what I am bemoaning is the coaching staff’s inability to make someone other than the team’s speedy guard beat us. Why did we let Fears and Dent get career high assists? At some point, we had to consider a full court press or trap, no?
One thing you notice watching the Duke/Michigan or Houston/Arizona games is when everything sort of breaks down you need someone to just go get a bucket. Every time Keaton or Andre try to go aggressively at the paint the most common outcome these days is a missed FG or TO.
Keaton’s crafty, extremely skillful with the ball, and makes excellent decisions. That doesn’t mean he can singlehandedly slice and dice his way through traffic. Similarly, Boswell (since the fracture) has not looked the same getting to the hoop. Andre is the only player on the team that seems able and willing to create a mid-range basket for himself. But he doesn’t get all that many reps doing that in his new bench role.
We shot 40+ threes in a game where getting to the charity line and/or hitting a few 2s would have won us the game.
Picture a scenario when this team is down 10 pts early second half against a physical and athletic team constantly attacking the rim. I don’t really care what the “computers” say. I don’t see us with our current defensive and offensive schemes capable of making that comeback.
But what I am bemoaning is the coaching staff’s inability to make someone other than the team’s speedy guard beat us. Why did we let Fears and Dent get career high assists? At some point, we had to consider a full court press or trap, no?
One thing you notice watching the Duke/Michigan or Houston/Arizona games is when everything sort of breaks down you need someone to just go get a bucket. Every time Keaton or Andre try to go aggressively at the paint the most common outcome these days is a missed FG or TO.
Keaton’s crafty, extremely skillful with the ball, and makes excellent decisions. That doesn’t mean he can singlehandedly slice and dice his way through traffic. Similarly, Boswell (since the fracture) has not looked the same getting to the hoop. Andre is the only player on the team that seems able and willing to create a mid-range basket for himself. But he doesn’t get all that many reps doing that in his new bench role.
We shot 40+ threes in a game where getting to the charity line and/or hitting a few 2s would have won us the game.
Picture a scenario when this team is down 10 pts early second half against a physical and athletic team constantly attacking the rim. I don’t really care what the “computers” say. I don’t see us with our current defensive and offensive schemes capable of making that comeback.
The difference between what the computer models and analytics predict and what you predict is called cognitive bias
Michigan is good!
However, this might be the perfect time to play them....
Tuesday Feb 17th at Purdue
Saturday Feb 21st in DC v Duke
Tuesday, Feb 24th at Home v Minny
Friday at the ILLINI
While Illini get a week off to get ready.
Michigan maybe a bit travel weary.
OR
They could just come beat our arse. To me, this is the best time to play them
However, this might be the perfect time to play them....
Tuesday Feb 17th at Purdue
Saturday Feb 21st in DC v Duke
Tuesday, Feb 24th at Home v Minny
Friday at the ILLINI
While Illini get a week off to get ready.
Michigan maybe a bit travel weary.
OR
They could just come beat our arse. To me, this is the best time to play them
This narrative needs to die. Morez Johnson is 6-16 from three on the season. The last time he attempted two three pointers was against Nebraska. He gets so many opportunities inside that he doesn't need to take threes often. So if Morez even takes two threes on us, we should be ecstatic that our defense has forced that to happen.
I appreciate the snark.
Since you like computers…
We’ve also had a 60th-ranked defense in the last 5 games. We’ve retained the 1st-ranked through that 2-3 run.
Michigan State struggled to score 66 at home vs. tOSU. UCLA is far from an elite offense. Both these teams hung 70-80pts on us in regulation.
What does that tell you? We have NO margin for error on offense. The NCAAs amp up the mental pressure on neutral courts with single elimination stakes.
The combo of a high quality offense and middling defense has been a consistent recipe for disappointment in March.
Last edited:
In the last 5 games we've also had Boswell out for 2 games and Andrej out for 1 game
Since December 14th we are the 2nd ranked team in the country on Torvik with the 19th ranked defense (and that counts the 7 games Boswell was out)
But yeah we have NO margin for error, have to shoot 100% with zero turnovers vs Michigan, sure lol
I mean, he's unfortunately right. We're a team that loves to play from ahead. We've only been able to come back from large deficits a couple of times this season, and I don't think we've actually won the games we did that with. The Nebraska game is the best example. We came back from down ten only to give up the buzzer beater.
The real issue has been that we're capable of just overwhelming opponents in the first twenty minutes but we don't have show the ability to keep those opponents down. We saw both sides of this in California. Huge lead against USC in the opening minutes that never really went away. Huge lead against UCLA in the opening 10 minutes and then we got lazy on defense and let their shooters get comfortable. In other words, precisely what Brad said about the team after the loss.
- Status