Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
I like your rating system. So what justifies a Pooh or Christopher Robin?Well said sir, well said. For this my Illini brother, this post gets five Tiggers!
Pregame: Illinois vs Michigan, Friday, February 27th, 7:00pm CT, FOX
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altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
I know what justifies an Eeyore.
This may have been brought up elsewhere, but I did not see it in this thread. I saw an Illinois fan on twitter spouting off. I know, it's twitter, there is probably 0 legitimacy to it but I still wanted to check. This fan said that Big Mirk has been contacted either through agents/other back channels about transferring to Michigan. Real insiders, any truth to this at all? When there's smoke...
He lit Duke up for half a game. 5 pt's in second half
Yeah too bad games aren't played based off this Rut Ro...
Comes down to rebounds. How well we shoot the 3 versus how well they shoot the 3
Hard stop. We live and die with it. The UCLA game was a microcosm of that.
The combination of 3 of 25 from three(second half and OT) and not being able to be even average on defense set the stage for a 23 point collapse.
I don't think that we have the ability to slow them down in the paint and we don't have the athletic, physical bodies to score consistently in the post.....
We need a 17-32 type performance from the perimeter to be in the game.
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
I only award Eeyores and Tiggers based on the amount on enthusiasm (Tiggers) versus despair/doom & gloom (Eeyores). I supposed I could award Piglets for ignorance . . . but want to stay out of Dan Jail.
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
This game will be the good Illini defensive team
Michigan will likely clinch the conference title tonight and they are deserving, they’ve won the games. But did a little review of their schedule and there really isn’t much separating us other than a little luck.
They played a pretty uninspired stretch of basketball for about 7 games in January. If memory serves Yaxel was pretty clearly not 100%. He gets credit for gutting it out, but their games were @Penn State, @Oregon, @Washington, vs Indiana, vs Wisconsin (loss) and vs Nebraska.
They only beat Penn State by 2, and Penn State had a shot to take the lead in the last 20 seconds and they were without Mingo, probably their best player this year.
They only beat Nebraska by 3 and Nebraska was missing Mast and Frager, probably 2 of their top 3 or 4 players.
And they had the good luck to draw Oregon and Washington for their west coast trip who are both awful this year and only won by about 10 points each game,
Just saying, if they had USC/UCLA during that stretch when they weren’t playing well, good chance they drop one of those games. And if they played PSU and Nebraska at full strength, chances are they drop at least one of those games as well.
Compare with our schedule, when we got Nebraska in early December when we were still getting our sea legs defensively, and we had to go through maybe the toughest part of our schedule short handed, including playing the one team (Wisconsin) you don’t want to play during the one game we were without our two best perimeter defenders.
Dillione makes his shot, Lawrence misses his, or we grab a defensive rebound at the right time, we are the ones in first place.
We can beat Michigan.
They played a pretty uninspired stretch of basketball for about 7 games in January. If memory serves Yaxel was pretty clearly not 100%. He gets credit for gutting it out, but their games were @Penn State, @Oregon, @Washington, vs Indiana, vs Wisconsin (loss) and vs Nebraska.
They only beat Penn State by 2, and Penn State had a shot to take the lead in the last 20 seconds and they were without Mingo, probably their best player this year.
They only beat Nebraska by 3 and Nebraska was missing Mast and Frager, probably 2 of their top 3 or 4 players.
And they had the good luck to draw Oregon and Washington for their west coast trip who are both awful this year and only won by about 10 points each game,
Just saying, if they had USC/UCLA during that stretch when they weren’t playing well, good chance they drop one of those games. And if they played PSU and Nebraska at full strength, chances are they drop at least one of those games as well.
Compare with our schedule, when we got Nebraska in early December when we were still getting our sea legs defensively, and we had to go through maybe the toughest part of our schedule short handed, including playing the one team (Wisconsin) you don’t want to play during the one game we were without our two best perimeter defenders.
Dillione makes his shot, Lawrence misses his, or we grab a defensive rebound at the right time, we are the ones in first place.
We can beat Michigan.
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
I know metrics are the latest thing, but I have generally gone by the eye test. Our beloved Illini have nearly always passed the eye test this season, even in a loss. I have watched Michigan on multiple occasions. Maybe it's the deep-seated disdain I have for them or my sentiment that IDKWTI2 deserves to lose every game in his remaining career, but after watching UM I have never thought we are inferior to them. We will win... and sign me up for a 1 seed.
Great first half by Michigan
After re-watching the UM-Duke game, one unique trait Michigan displayed is the way they race downcourt on offense, even after a made basket. UCLA got several easy buckets off of Illinois turnovers or missed shots, and they are nowhere near as talented as UM. Defending against this has to be a point of emphasis, to make Michigan have to earn every bucket on offense. And I won't be upset if Cadeau and Burnett go 1 of 11 like they did against Duke, either.
Michigan a really inspiring win at home against Minnesota!! Yaxel was the definition of elite!!!
I don't think we were watching the same game(s)
(1) Duke Scored 5 fast break points against Michigan
(2) Duke Outrebounded Michigan 41-28 and had 13 offensive rebounds
(3) Michigan had 7 fast break points against Duke
(4) UCLA scored 9 fast break points against Illinois
(5) Illinois Outrebounded UCLA 42 - 27 and had 20 offensive rebounds
(6) Illinois had 6 fast break points.
The issues changed the outcome of the game:
(1) UCLA shot 63% from the field after falling behind 33-10 including 50% (10 - 20 from 3 point range)
(2) David Mirkovic took a 3 shot foul at the end of first half (we lead by 7, not 10 pts).
(3) Illinois shot 7 - 32 from three point range after starting the game 6-10.
(4) Illinois missed 3 FTs in the last 10 minutes of regulation.
(5) Illinois did not pressure the ball when UCLA inbounded the ball in the backcourt with 5 seconds remaining.
I know alot of people are adding extra meaning here. But not many teams shoot 63% from the floor (and 50% from 3pt) even against lousy defense. And we simply were outcoached in this one game.
Not seeing any significance to fast break points. They accounted for 6% of the points scored in our game and 8% of the points scored in the Michigan / Duke game.
Didn't after market ticket prices for this game plummet after our UCLA loss? They are not still $1000+ for normal seats are they?
Michigan uses 9 players, only one plays more than 30 mins. We use 8 players and 2 play more than 30 mins
Trying to predict match ups is kinda difficult. For us the game will be on the boards and on defense. As usual, the playing time will go to the match ups that are working out the best during the game.
Esquire, Bunny’s Tavern, or Billy Barooz are all solid for watching a game.
pruman91
- interviewing new NL's daily....I really really am
I concur........................................I really really do......................
What’s tough is the way we send 4 to the offensive glass makes us susceptible to transition baskets, just like against Michigan State. That’s why it’s so key we are successful in rebounding, to both get second chances and limit their chances in transition. I think the mark to hit is 35%. We get 35% or more of our misses back we should be in good shape. Less than that and we may give up too many transition points.
Since January 1, we have been the better team according to Torvik. And we're home...which, for this game specifically, will give us an edge.
Call it a shallow analysis but I really think it's as simple as the team who makes the most threes will win.
Both teams are willing to let the other team shoot them. If we make more, we can negate Michigan's other advantages. If Michigan makes more, then we're probably in trouble.
We're 3-5 this year when high major teams make 10+ threes against us. That's our Death Star exhaust port. Michigan is 10-0 this year when they make 10+ threes.
However, we're 11-3 when we make more than 10. Alabama, Wisconsin, and UCLA being the three losses - all of whom had 10+ threes of their own to negate ours.
Even though the conference championship is no longer on the line, this is probably one of the top 3 biggest home games of the last 20 years. Biggest home game since Iowa in 2022 for sure. I really think we reward a raucous crowd with a win like we did that afternoon.
Call it a shallow analysis but I really think it's as simple as the team who makes the most threes will win.
Both teams are willing to let the other team shoot them. If we make more, we can negate Michigan's other advantages. If Michigan makes more, then we're probably in trouble.
We're 3-5 this year when high major teams make 10+ threes against us. That's our Death Star exhaust port. Michigan is 10-0 this year when they make 10+ threes.
However, we're 11-3 when we make more than 10. Alabama, Wisconsin, and UCLA being the three losses - all of whom had 10+ threes of their own to negate ours.
Even though the conference championship is no longer on the line, this is probably one of the top 3 biggest home games of the last 20 years. Biggest home game since Iowa in 2022 for sure. I really think we reward a raucous crowd with a win like we did that afternoon.
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