Pregame: Illinois vs Michigan, Friday, February 27th, 7:00pm CT, FOX

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#451      
Second place is 1st loser
This has been pointed out a bunch of times, but 5 of the 6 games Michigan has played that were very close (< 5 points) their opponent shot poorly from 3

So its just pure fallacy that we have to make a bunch of 3s to compete here… since mid December we’ve been the better team anyway (even with our 2nd most important player missing half of the games).
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If we pull a 9 of 32 from three, we'll be blown out. We're going to have to have a 17 of 42 type night because the points in the paint are going to be one sided. What makes Tomi and Mirk so valuable is their ability to shoot the three. They are matchup problems because of it. Michigan creates matchup problems because they are extremely athletic, big and physical. Conversely, that's a matchup problem for us. So no, if we don't take advantage of the one part of our game that could potentially cause them headaches(hitting threes) we'll be in a world of trouble.

Are they going to have an issue with our height? I suppose it could happen. Are we going to have issues with their athleticism and physicality? Yes. That's just the roster we have.

Against UCLA, we got out to a big lead because we hit threes and we coughed up a 23 point lead because we didn't. That game vs UCLA was the epitome of living and dying by the three.

They've lost, what, two games in that time period with one being to Duke? They may not have been sharp a couple of times, but they've also had a 18-20 point lead @ Purdue and a 17-18 point lead @ MSU. They've gotten at least a share of the Big Ten Championship with three full games to go.

I'm not trying to come across that we shouldn't have hope because we do have an avenue to get a W. That said, our margin for error is significantly less than theirs.

If we can hold our own on the glass and if we can win with 15 or less threes......get the crow nice and cooked up because I'll eat the whole darn thing HAPPILY.
 
#453      
RockfordIllini
To flip it around, my question for the group is our defensive strategy. Michigan is a good but not great three point shooting team and a great 2 point team. Michigan burned the past 2 teams to sell out on clogging the paint (Purdue and Minny), making 13 and 14 3’s and shooting over 40% from 3.

I think my strategy would be to hug the shooters and make them shoot a high % from 2. Especially if they don’t play Mara much and switch 1-5. Be that we can make enough 3s and get enough shots back that they can’t make a high enough % from 2 to outscore us. Tilt the math in our favor.
 
#454      
Second place is 1st loser
RockfordIllini said:
If they get cross-matched against our bigs we can. See Purdue. Yes, Keaton was transcendent. But another big reason why we won that game was Purdue Switched 1-5. And not only did that leave Cluff on Keaton, it meant that their guards had to try and box out our bigs which is why we dominated the rebounding margin. We missed 28 shots but got 13 of them back.

If Cadeau has to block out Mirk, Davis, Tomi, you name it, I like our chances.
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The issue I have with the Purdue comp is that they blew Purdue out of their own gym. I think the closest it got was 8 and that was late in the game. It's hard to rationalize taking Purdue as a positive example for us.

Like I said in another post(I don't want to be redundant), but it's hard to visualize us having any sort of success in the paint UNLESS Mara gets in foul trouble, which I believe he did vs Purdue. I get what you're saying about getting them caught up in switches, our bigs pulling them out of the paint, etc. I'm not minimizing your solid observation.
 
#455      
EmeraldCityIllini
Guys, we’re really galaxy-braining this offensive rebounding stuff. Talking yourselves into “well if we dominate the offensive glass, that means we’re bricking and not scoring so it’s actually bad” is not how this
 
#456      
EmeraldCityIllini
RockfordIllini said:
To flip it around, my question for the group is our defensive strategy. Michigan is a good but not great three point shooting team and a great 2 point team. Michigan burned the past 2 teams to sell out on clogging the paint (Purdue and Minny), making 13 and 14 3’s and shooting over 40% from 3.

I think my strategy would be to hug the shooters and make them shoot a high % from 2. Especially if they don’t play Mara much and switch 1-5. Be that we can make enough 3s and get enough shots back that they can’t make a high enough % from 2 to outscore us. Tilt the math in our favor.
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Broken record for me Atleast. figure out how to contain Cadeau, don’t let him touch the paint at will and collapse the defense.

I’m fine with defending guys like Burnett, Cason, and McKenney straight up. It’s when we start getting broken down off the pick n roll when all those dudes become a problem
 
#458      
Second place is 1st loser
Michigan is only +21 on the entire season on the offensive glass, less than 1 per game (includes cupcakes, they're negative in conf play... meaning they've been outrebounded on off glass overall during conf play)

Here are teams that outrebounded Michigan this season on the offensive glass

Wake Forest 14-12
Gonzaga 10-5
Rutgers 12-10
Maryland 9-5
Penn State 14-7
Washington 15-12
Oregon 11-8
Michigan St 13-8
UCLA 9-6
Duke 12-7

They've gotten killed on off rebs vs some really, really bad teams... why can't Illinois (an ELITE rebounding team, in the top 1 percentile nationally) win the offensive glass against a team that is actually very poor in that category?

EDIT: I'm just really looking forward to all of the "I told you so" posts at the 1st TV timeout when Michigan is up 8 to 5
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Not from me. Our ability to go on runs because out of left field, we'll go 5 of 7 from distance. We're never out of a game because of our potential to hit a team with a 10-0, 12-2 spurt. Conversely, as we saw, if that water runs dry.... problematic.

I can't wait for the refs to get blamed an hour before tip with issues of us not getting "home cooking".
 
#459      
fatboyslim
WeWillWhen said:
The Illini are a very good team.
Michigan is not the 1995-96 Bulls.
Illini have the comfort of being at home, with a few days' rest and focused practice.
I think the Beloved take this one by 7 points.
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You’d think with the way the media *cough* Field of 68 *cough* treats them.
 
#460      
Second place is 1st loser
RockfordIllini said:
To flip it around, my question for the group is our defensive strategy. Michigan is a good but not great three point shooting team and a great 2 point team. Michigan burned the past 2 teams to sell out on clogging the paint (Purdue and Minny), making 13 and 14 3’s and shooting over 40% from 3.

I think my strategy would be to hug the shooters and make them shoot a high % from 2. Especially if they don’t play Mara much and switch 1-5. Be that we can make enough 3s and get enough shots back that they can’t make a high enough % from 2 to outscore us. Tilt the math in our favor.
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Great point and great question. I, personally, would pack into a zone and make the guards beat us. They can be bad, but as you mentioned, they can sting you. It's what makes the matchup a tough one. If you can eliminate the easy stuff and mismatches and can force them 15 to 20 feet from the rim, that would be an outrageously good thing.

I'd much, much rather see them have to hit jumpers than outscored 40-8 in the paint on 60% shooting.
 
#461      
RockfordIllini
Yep Cadeau is a huge matchup for sure. I may be wrong but to my eye I think he is the least quick out of he, Smith, Dent and Fears so hopefully that helps.

And I may be crazy but I think Ben can make things hard for Yaxel.
 
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#462      
EmpoweredIllini
Second place is 1st loser said:
Like I said in another post(I don't want to be redundant), but it's hard to visualize us having any sort of success in the paint UNLESS Mara gets in foul trouble, which I believe he did vs Purdue. I get what you're saying about getting them caught up in switches, our bigs pulling them out of the paint, etc. I'm not minimizing your solid observation.
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we're going to pull Mara out to the three point line... we're going to pull Morez out there too... they've likely not played a game this whole season where they can't just sit a shot blocker in the paint... teams can't do that vs Illinois

idk why you're so vigilantly trying to build a narrative that Michigan does all this stuff that Illinois has no hope to neutralize... first it was three point shooting, then it was rebounding, now we cant score in the paint... geezus man have a glass of milk or something lol
 
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#463      
Chi2La
Why do they make the students line up hours before a game? It’s 2026, we have better systems available, seems inefficient and cold during the winter.
 
#464      
Fly Illini Fly!
EmpoweredIllini said:
we're going to pull Mara out to the three point line... we're going to pull Morez out there too... they've likely not played a game this whole season where they can't just sit a shot blocker in the paint... teams can't do that vs Illinois

idk why you're so vigilantly trying to build a narrative that Michigan does all this stuff that Illinois has no hope to neutralize... first it was three point shooting, then it was rebounding, now we cant score in the paint... geezus man have a glass of milk or something lol
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Wisconsin. (game they lost)
 
#465      
DeeIL89
Make shots, battle on the glass, and get stops and prevent Michigan from going in transition as much as possible. Hopefully the coaching staff takes a lot from what Wisconsin did well and some of what Minnesota did too.
 
#466      
illinifan1987
This is the game I have had circled all season long, win this game and I will be so happy.


So It Begins Christmas Season GIF
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I can't wait! I'm heading out in an hour. That UCLA game with Skyy was loud af...at least when it came to booing him :ROFLMAO:
I'll be doing my part to make sure Morez gets an even louder response (y)

Edit: Since I sit right above the B1G camera guy, I'll give some loyalty shoutouts throughout the game!
 
#467      
Second place is 1st loser
EmpoweredIllini said:
we're going to pull Mara out to the three point line... we're going to pull Morez out there too... they've likely not played a game this whole season where they can't just sit a shot blocker in the paint... teams can't do that vs Illinois
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I agree wholeheartedly with this. 100000%. Our advantage is putting Morez and Mara on roller skates 20 feet from the hoop. That is clearly an advantage and a headache that we bring to the table.

Now, Michigan can take the same tactic vs us that we can take vs their guards. They may say..... we'll live with 7'1", 7'2" and 6'10" taking threes.

The guy who hasn't been talked about is KW. Can he get to the rim and finish against these guys? That's a big ask. We can't have another 19 points on 15 shots type of night. 5 of 15 can't be in the cards. He has to be really good on both ends. At 6'6", he can cause big problems, but he has to learn how to deliver blows at the rim and not just absorb them. Make the refs blow the whistle by going right up into their chests. No more getting to the rim, trying to score with a scoop shot because he's worried about getting packed. I can't stand Fears, but he's a master at drawing contact by being the one who delivers it. The refs can't ignore it. With Keaton, he wants to finesse the ball off the glass in the middle of mountains, the defender gets a lot of head and a lot of ball and he only gets 50% of the calls, which is brutal.

He may draw Yaxal, which will require him to shoot over him. How Brad utilizes Drej and KW is going to be really interesting. Drej is another guy who has to finish. He has a habit of driving head down, getting to the lane and getting stuck. He has also gotten into the lane and getting stuck in the air. That can't happen because it leads to turnovers and run outs.

Lots of fun stuff to talk about in this one. This is going to be a great gauge of where we are just prior to both tournaments.
 
#468      
Illini2010-11
Second place is 1st loser said:
There is 0% chance that we're going to kill them on the offensive glass. My concern is the exact opposite.

Your comment about the threes is 100% accurate. In a lot of games, we could be ok being average from three. Given the matchups, we'll have to be outstanding. Pulling them away from the rim is great, but if we can't make them pay, it's moot. We will not get easy/greasy baskets/put backs in this one.
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I agree. We are going to make so many shots that we will not have to kill them on the offensive glass.
 
#472      
WolfpackIllini
We will BAM Cadeau.
Z will block shots
We will out-rebound UM on O and D
Fears will not punch, trip or otherwise cause us injury
I like our chances.
;>)
PS: When we win, can we play the Free Bird guitar solo?
 
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#474      
Second place is 1st loser
RockfordIllini said:
And it’s true Wisconsin’s bigs shot out of their minds that game. But overall our bigs are better shooters than Wisconsin’s.
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It's also another game where Michigan coughed up a big lead. They were up 14 and let up 54 in the second half(they scored 50). There seems to be a recent trend with them not being able to play a full 40. I'd just assume not play from behind, but focus and letdown could be an issue.
 
#475      
NarrowJ
RockfordIllini said:
And it’s true Wisconsin’s bigs shot out of their minds that game. But overall our bigs are better shooters than Wisconsin’s.
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Only team that’s needed decent shooting to keep up with them, though.. all of their other close games their opponents shot poorly from 3… unsure why this keeps being ignored
 
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