Pregame: Illinois vs Michigan, Friday, January 14th, 8:00pm CT, FS1

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#26      

lstewart53x3

Scottsdale, Arizona
Iowa is #25 in KenPom and we beat them on the road.
Yep and another thing to keep in mind:

While Michigan is 27 in KenPom, they were preseason top 10 in KenPom, which continues to use data from last year at this point in the season I believe.

In Net, which takes only this season into account, they’re 54. Which seems about right to how they’ve played this year.

That being said, they’re still a talented team, and I expect them to start playing better at some point this season.
 
#27      

skyIdub

Winged Warrior
This is the actual trap game. The one where you think you've escaped the trap only to go home and fall into the actual trap.

swag-hilarious.gif
 
#28      
Yep and another thing to keep in mind:

While Michigan is 27 in KenPom, they were preseason top 10 in KenPom, which continues to use data from last year at this point in the season I believe.

In Net, which takes only this season into account, they’re 54. Which seems about right to how they’ve played this year.

That being said, they’re still a talented team, and I expect them to start playing better at some point this season.
Yes and they’ve got a lot of length, which bothers us. Not sure how good they are at the moment but we will get their best shot. May be an understatement but I think we need to play much better than we played last night to come out with a win.
 
#29      

lstewart53x3

Scottsdale, Arizona
So far this conference season, we’ve only played teams at the bottom of the pack. So it’s about to get tougher.

But - we only play two ranked teams on the road (Purdue & MSU) the rest of the season. We have as good of a chance as any to win the B1G.
 
#31      
Yep and another thing to keep in mind:

While Michigan is 27 in KenPom, they were preseason top 10 in KenPom, which continues to use data from last year at this point in the season I believe.

In Net, which takes only this season into account, they’re 54. Which seems about right to how they’ve played this year.

That being said, they’re still a talented team, and I expect them to start playing better at some point this season.

That's from 2010 where he says that by 1/23 the preseason data will drop out entirely after its weight has slowly decreased leading up to that. So I would assume 3rd week of January is probably pretty standard.
 
#33      
This is the actual trap game. The one where you think you've escaped the trap only to go home and fall into the actual trap.

swag-hilarious.gif

Every game is a trap game. Every opponent wants to win just as much as our guys do. And yes a team as loaded w/ talent as MIchigan is capable of beating just about anyone on a given day.
 
#35      
So far this conference season, we’ve only played teams at the bottom of the pack. So it’s about to get tougher.

But - we only play two ranked teams on the road (Purdue & MSU) the rest of the season. We have as good of a chance as any to win the B1G.
I tend to agree with you.

However, I believe undefeated MSU actually has an easier schedule than us --- so I'm picking MSU and ILL atop the conference come early March. Will likely come down to who wins our lone head-to-head battle in East Lansing next month, who can avoid significant Covid illnesses and who can avoid multiple upsets. Purdue will also be in it till the end.

17-3 will likely give you the outright title. 16-4 or 15-5 probably earns you a tie for the top spot.
 
#36      

lstewart53x3

Scottsdale, Arizona
I tend to agree with you.

However, I believe undefeated MSU actually has an easier schedule than us --- so I'm picking MSU and ILL atop the conference come early March. Will likely come down to who wins our lone head-to-head battle in East Lansing next month, who can avoid significant Covid illnesses and who can avoid multiple upsets. Purdue will also be in it till the end.

17-3 will likely give you the outright title. 16-4 or 15-5 probably earns you a tie for the top spot.
Looking at our upcoming schedules, MSU plays 3 ranked teams on the road, while we play 2.

So our schedules overall are probably pretty comparable.
 
#41      
Yep and another thing to keep in mind:

While Michigan is 27 in KenPom, they were preseason top 10 in KenPom, which continues to use data from last year at this point in the season I believe.

In Net, which takes only this season into account, they’re 54. Which seems about right to how they’ve played this year.

That being said, they’re still a talented team, and I expect them to start playing better at some point this season.

I was surprised by that, but checking his blog, his preseason ratings are influenced by player data from the prior year, and get some weight even this late in the season. I'm not sure of the mechanics, but I believe in the early part of the season, it amounts to 5 games and decreases over time. According to his blog, January 22 is the last day those affect the rating.

That said, they're two different methodologies. All of Michigan's losses except @Rutgers are in the 60s (NET) or above.
 
#44      
We shoot well from 3 and we win by double digits....shoot poorly from 3 and we win, but by a point or two....either way
Fuck Yeah Reaction GIF
 
#49      
Michigan made sure they were back to full force for this game by "not being able to play" Purdue. I don't expect an easy match. Some players have a personal grudge against Illinois. I foresee a dog fight.
 
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