Pregame: Illinois vs Minnesota, Saturday, February 4th, 3:00pm CT, BTN

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#51      

OrangeAndBlues

Indianapolis
I think it would then depend on if we won a game or two in the NCAA tournament


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Even bad teams get hot sometimes. Winning a game in the tournament would make you forget what your eyes have seen for five years?

As other posters have stated, we are Illinois, not Iowa. Our standards should be different.
 
#53      
Anybody looking for an epic free fall like Weber's last year is not going to see it. These players love Groce and will fight until the end of the year to salvage the season. Heck they even pulled off a great win in the BTT over Iowa last year with their injury depleted roster.

Wow, where to start here?

5 consecutive B1G road games where the team has been down at some point during the game by 20+.

9 consecutive B1G road game losses (program record) with a chance to own it outright with a loss at Northwestern next week.

Game after Iowa in the BTT? A 58-89 beat down (at one point down by 44 points 2nd-06:01, so the game really wasn't even that "close") to a team that they had beaten 84-70 earlier that same season.

This team has a bunch of seniors, most of whom have never played in an NCAA tourney. They are two losses away from being out of the tourney and their coach likely out of a job. Minnesota is a must win game (some would say that ship has already sailed).

Lose to Minnesota and then claim the team record for consecutive B1G road losses at Northwestern and just exactly what will this team be playing for? If that happens, Katie bar the door, because if you think that the play has been ugly this far...
 
#54      

Cheez

Sun Prairie WI
Minnesota is not that good, so I think that Illinois wins (67-61).

That said, this win should not change the belief held by most of us that John Groce must be fired at the end of the season.
 
#55      
Minnesota is not that good, so I think that Illinois wins (67-61).

That said, this win should not change the belief held by most of us that John Groce must be fired at the end of the season.

I agree with the latter, less so the former. Just to bring numbers to the discussion as I am fond of doing, KenPom ratings for both squads:

Minnesota -- 42 overall, 117 O, 16 D
Illinois -- 68 overall, 109 O, 62 D

I also don't think they're a particularly good matchup for us.

There's also this: average margin against kenPom top 40 defenses this year: -16.6 in 5 games, 0-5 (v Wisco: -14, v WVU: -31, @ Purdue: -23, v FSU: -11, @ PSU: -4)
 
#56      

illynifan34

That's a winner!!
OH
I agree with the latter, less so the former. Just to bring numbers to the discussion as I am fond of doing, KenPom ratings for both squads:

Minnesota -- 42 overall, 117 O, 16 D
Illinois -- 68 overall, 109 O, 62 D

I also don't think they're a particularly good matchup for us.

There's also this: average margin against kenPom top 40 defenses this year: -16.6 in 5 games, 0-5 (v Wisco: -14, v WVU: -31, @ Purdue: -23, v FSU: -11, @ PSU: -4)

I don't do the KenPom thing, are those offense and defense numbers rankings? If so that says we are rank better defensively than offensively?
 
#60      
I don't do the KenPom thing, are those offense and defense numbers rankings? If so that says we are rank better defensively than offensively?

We had been fairly balanced but the offense has taken a nose dive in conference play. We're not getting to the FT line nearly as often and our 3 pt % is not good. Those 2 factors will really hurt our offensive efficiency.

The defense has been steadily mediocre the whole time.
 
#61      
We had been fairly balanced but the offense has taken a nose dive in conference play. We're not getting to the FT line nearly as often and our 3 pt % is not good. Those 2 factors will really hurt our offensive efficiency.

The defense has been steadily mediocre the whole time.

Well, over the course of a season it's been steadily mediocre, the problem (and the reason the perception of it is what it is) is that it isn't at all steady over the course of a game :tsk:
 
#62      
Wow, where to start here?

5 consecutive B1G road games where the team has been down at some point during the game by 20+.

9 consecutive B1G road game losses (program record) with a chance to own it outright with a loss at Northwestern next week.

Game after Iowa in the BTT? A 58-89 beat down (at one point down by 44 points 2nd-06:01, so the game really wasn't even that "close") to a team that they had beaten 84-70 earlier that same season.

This team has a bunch of seniors, most of whom have never played in an NCAA tourney. They are two losses away from being out of the tourney and their coach likely out of a job. Minnesota is a must win game (some would say that ship has already sailed).

Lose to Minnesota and then claim the team record for consecutive B1G road losses at Northwestern and just exactly what will this team be playing for? If that happens, Katie bar the door, because if you think that the play has been ugly this far...

I am searching hard to find a positive (Like you):illinois:
 
#63      
KenPom

I was amazed as you are. We rank better in in adjusted defensive efficiency than offense. We are 65th in adjusted efficiency, but 184th in raw efficiency. Must have something to do with being 276th in adjusted tempo, not sure what that means. (May count the amount of time dribbling at the top of the key)


Minny is 14th in adjusted and 21st in raw. Which is much less adjustment.


Go Illini!
 
#64      
I was amazed as you are. We rank better in in adjusted defensive efficiency than offense. We are 65th in adjusted efficiency, but 184th in raw efficiency. Must have something to do with being 276th in adjusted tempo, not sure what that means. (May count the amount of time dribbling at the top of the key)


Minny is 14th in adjusted and 21st in raw. Which is much less adjustment.


Go Illini!

It's because our strength of schedule of opposing offenses is 4th in the nation. We've played against stronger offenses than defenses.
 
#65      
I was amazed as you are. We rank better in in adjusted defensive efficiency than offense. We are 65th in adjusted efficiency, but 184th in raw efficiency. Must have something to do with being 276th in adjusted tempo, not sure what that means. (May count the amount of time dribbling at the top of the key)


Minny is 14th in adjusted and 21st in raw. Which is much less adjustment.


Go Illini!

Tempo is # of possessions per 40 mins
 
#66      
Anybody looking for an epic free fall like Weber's last year is not going to see it. These players love Groce and will fight until the end of the year to salvage the season. Heck they even pulled off a great win in the BTT over Iowa last year with their injury depleted roster.

I root for these guys. I have several favorites on the team, and will continue to root for the team's success. I tend to like the players a lot more than the coach right now, but that's mostly frustration with how poorly they're performing. The coach is a good guy too. That said....

There are 14 teams in the BIG. We're above Rutgers. That's it. Rutgers is the one team between us and dead last in the BIG. I'm having a hard time imagining what an "epic freefall" could be. I'm not imagining we can drop to Div II.

If you're referring to the six game losing streak under Weber, versus 5 losses out of the last 6, I'm not thinking that's worth much.
 
#67      
I root for these guys. I have several favorites on the team, and will continue to root for the team's success. I tend to like the players a lot more than the coach right now, but that's mostly frustration with how poorly they're performing. The coach is a good guy too. That said....

There are 14 teams in the BIG. We're above Rutgers. That's it. Rutgers is the one team between us and dead last in the BIG. I'm having a hard time imagining what an "epic freefall" could be. I'm not imagining we can drop to Div II.

If you're referring to the six game losing streak under Weber, versus 5 losses out of the last 6, I'm not thinking that's worth much.

There's no "free fall" this year (at least not comparable to Weber's finale) simply because this team never reach any heights to fall from. Weber's team was 15-3 after beating a top 5 Ohio St team behind an epic performance from BP3. After that, only 2 more wins the rest of the season.

The high point for this year's team? Ummmm.... beating VCU in Miami I guess? :huh: More of a Bataan Death March than a "free fall".
 
#69      

KrushCow31

Former Krush Cow
Chicago, IL
#71      

whovous

Washington, DC
We seem to have more chutes than ladders this season.
 
#74      

BlindLoyalty

FartNoiseMotivation
They need an app to vote on player substitutions.

I think we should really consider being the first P5 school to forego a human head coach and use an AI coach. Certainly the AI coach would be a better tactician. For all of those crying in their beer about poor Mr. Nice Guy Groce getting fired, we could retain him to perform all of the social requirements for the AI (pressers) and pay him $30k and call him the social liaison. Hey google, get open cog on the phone for me...
 
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