Pregame: Illinois vs Minnesota, Tuesday, December 15th, 6:00pm CT, ESPN2
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Dan
Admin
Brad says one of @papicurbelo11's moves is definitely a travel. But they looked at the video, and discovered that most of them are not.
https://twitter.com/IlliniReport/
https://twitter.com/IlliniReport/
I know the BigTen is deep, but I think this is giving way too much credit to the bottom and not enough to the top of the conference. No way a team with 7 (6.8) losses wins the conference and that a 7-win team gets 13th place.This may have changed since you posted but as of this morning Torvik doesn't even have us favored in the next 10 B1G games let alone going 10-0. (@ Rutgers is 50% odds but -0.1 in favor of Rutgers). For reference, Torvik expects us to finish the season with only 12.3 conference wins and for Wisconsin to win the regular season with just 13.2 conference wins.
Vs Minnesota is the game Torvik has us most likely to win over the next 10 (80% odds and -8.9 point favorites) so let's make sure we really put them away.
Concast for B10 and - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.barttorvik.com
Title Odds
TEAM WINS SHARE SOLE T4 Wisconsin 13.2 38 24 80.8 Illinois 12.3 22 12 66.9 Indiana 12.0 18 10 61.1 Michigan 11.9 16 8 58.6 Iowa 11.8 16 8 56.6 Ohio St. 11.0 9 4 42.0 Michigan St. 11.0 9 4 41.5 Rutgers 9.9 4 1 23.5 Purdue 9.1 2 1 14.3 Penn St. 8.9 1 0 11.4 Maryland 8.6 1 0 10.0 Minnesota 8.0 0 0 5.8 Northwestern 7.0 0 0 2.4 Nebraska 5.4 0 0 0.3
Dan
Admin
Game Notes
ESPN2: Dave Flemming & Dan Dakich
fightingillini.com
ESPN2: Dave Flemming & Dan Dakich
Game Notes | #13 Illini vs. Minnesota - University of Illinois Athletics
No. 13 Illinois opens Big Ten play at home on Tuesday, facing Minnesota (6 p.m. CT, ESPN2).
fightingillini.com
Please just hit your free throws
I just noticed Adam Miller fell below 40% from 3 point range down to 37.9% (11-29). Trent is still hanging tight at 50% (12-24), Ayo's at 40.9% (9-22), and Williams is at a whopping 62.5% (10-16 and wow what a change from last year). As a team we're still at 44.3% which is pretty great if we can keep that up into the conference slate.
I wonder if the plan against Minnesota will be to shoot or get it inside to Kofi / drive the lane. I assume Minnesota's strategy will be to put their best defender on Ayo and occasionally double up Kofi. So we should win easily if we can get Trent, Miller, and Williams hitting shots (or really just 2 of those 3 hitting shots should be plenty).
I wonder if the plan against Minnesota will be to shoot or get it inside to Kofi / drive the lane. I assume Minnesota's strategy will be to put their best defender on Ayo and occasionally double up Kofi. So we should win easily if we can get Trent, Miller, and Williams hitting shots (or really just 2 of those 3 hitting shots should be plenty).
altenberger22
- South Carolina
Bold pic:
Carr goes off for 35 points and Mashburn Jr. has a breakout game with 15 pts. The Illini supporting cast all repeat their sluggish performances at Mizzou, and Ayo can't buy a bucket after starting the game 4-4 from the field. Kofi's NBA stock continues to sink.
Minny 66
Illini 65
(Note: I've called each of the last three games incorrectly --- Baylor, Duke and Missouri. I cannot be trusted.)
Carr goes off for 35 points and Mashburn Jr. has a breakout game with 15 pts. The Illini supporting cast all repeat their sluggish performances at Mizzou, and Ayo can't buy a bucket after starting the game 4-4 from the field. Kofi's NBA stock continues to sink.
Minny 66
Illini 65
(Note: I've called each of the last three games incorrectly --- Baylor, Duke and Missouri. I cannot be trusted.)
JFGsCoffeeMug
BU:1 Trash cans:0
- Chicago
If the streak is bound to continue, I appreciate you picking again us.
That people over-emphasize the most recent game, even in Vegas.
illiniswish09
- Northwest Suburbs
Sure I’ll take some of Illinois -7 though
Where would I indulge in such activities?
Dan
Admin
“He’s a really interesting player. He sometimes makes passes that no one expects him to make. He seems the floor differently. I just have to start getting used to that. I’ve never really played with somebody like him who has that vision." #illini Kofi on Andre Curbelo.
https://twitter.com/mrwagner25/
Kofi Cockburn said he got a Nintendo Switch to entertain himself through the pandemic and the team has connected through it.
https://twitter.com/JWerner247/
https://twitter.com/mrwagner25/
Kofi Cockburn said he got a Nintendo Switch to entertain himself through the pandemic and the team has connected through it.
https://twitter.com/JWerner247/
I am absolutely most excited to watch Curbelo when I tune into a game. After watching available Frank Williams highlights and some Deron Williams, Curbelo is easily on track to be my favorite Illini to watch. He's a talent you don't see often in the game.
Court vision and ball handling is a sight to behold.
Court vision and ball handling is a sight to behold.
TheFameProtector
- Champaign
I think you can pretty much put that on repeat the rest of the year. If we have 2/3 of those guys nailing threes then we are pretty difficult to stop, even if we're just getting average from the big two.
TheFameProtector
- Champaign
Kofi has played with Cole Anthony + Ayo Dosunmu, two NBA-level CGs/PGs. This says a lot about Curbelo. If he can put on some LBs and become a knockdown outside shooter, I can definitely see him making it in the league. He's just so damn cerebral and skilled with the ball, and so quick and elusive that he can get past big guys to the hoop. He'd probably never start b/c of his size, and perhaps I am just way overexcited to have him on our team, but if guys like Chris Chiozza, Tremont Waters, JJ Barea, and maybe even Zavier Simpson can make it onto NBA rosters, then I can realistically imagine a scenario where Curbelo is able to do the same.
I know how some people feel about comparisons on here. The sec announcers said underwood compared curbelo to steve nash.
when you watch him enough you can see what that comes from.
when you watch him enough you can see what that comes from.
An NBA Hall of Famer.....hmmmm
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
The chart from Torvik's site should not be interpreted as a likely outcome for this upcoming season. What it represents is that the best and worst teams in the B1G would be expected to have 13 wins and 7 wins, respectively, on average. If we played the 2020-21 season, say, 100 times, Wisconsin would end up with ~130 wins, and Northwestern around 70 (not to say Torvik's model is perfect, but that's what it believes about those teams).
As your intuition rightly suggests, the likelihood of an actual season finishing with a 6-game spread between 13 teams is very small. But the reason is not (necessarily) that the model over-rates the bottom of the conference. Here's a simple example to show this.
Imagine a "conference" with two perfectly matched teams, where the odds of winning in any given game are exactly 50/50. If you made a chart like this for a 20 game "season", it would obviously show an average of 10.0 wins for each team. But how likely is it that 10 wins would be enough to win that 2-team conference? Turns out, only about a 1 in 6 chance of a 10 to 10 tie, even though the teams are exactly equal.
In the same way, the shortness of a 20-game B1G season means that some teams will almost certainly win or lose a couple more games than expected. This means we can expect the final standings to have a wider spread than the expected # of wins for each team, even if the model is correct about the teams' relative strengths.
You forgot to mention Giorgi at 100% from three.
Adam Miller hitting 3s is the difference between our close wins/losses and our comfortable wins.
We need more consistency from him on shooting and curbelo on turnovers (shocker freshman need more consistency) but honestly that just comes with time and experience. They’re both so talented I have no concerns they’ll become what we need them to by February. Our top 7 would be extraordinarily solid if they grow how I’m assuming.
8th your splitting minutes between Hawkins, Grand and hopefully health Verdonk.
Would be nice to have a solid 8 with 9th being where you split minutes. But if we’re able to maintain those 3 point percentages we should have enough leads that we can develop an 8th guy in those spot minutes till he’s ready for a larger role. I’ve been impressed by Hawkins quite a bit in that role.
iLL 89ers
- Dallas,TX , Born and raised in Alton,Illinois
In this conference , I would think to 5-6 is a strong possibility .
Agreed. If Curbelo and Dusunmo are going to penetrate 1) others can not be standing around; 2) C and D have to kick the ball out more than one or twice.
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