Pregame: Illinois vs Minnesota, Tuesday, December 15th, 6:00pm CT, ESPN2

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#51      

pruman91

pruman91
Paducah, Ky
pruman91
www.stltoday.com

Illini set to start basketball Big Ten schedule on Tuesday

Conference is deep this season, and Illinois has veteran leadership.
www.stltoday.com www.stltoday.com

“If you’re good enough to win a Big Ten championship in this league, you’ve got a chance to win the national championship,” Underwood said. “It’s 20 long, grueling nights. There are going to be ups and downs. There are going to be hiccups. That doesn’t have anything to do with COVID. That has to do with an elite league with elite teams with elite players and elite coaches.”

“Every night is going to be tough,” Cockburn said. “I think coach Underwood did a really good job with getting us the right games to prepare us for that; physical games, games where we’re going to be challenged on the glass and challenged physically. These first games really prepared us for what it’s going to be in the Big Ten, which is hard nights, two-possession games, a lot of competition.”
 
#52      

kyillinifan

K
kyillinifan
Just hit free throws. We win against Mo if we hit just 5 more free throws. If you notice something in the Baylor loss and Mo loss the beginning of the game how many free throws did we miss. Way to many. The shame was the flagrant foul on Kofi. Even as the announcers said the defender brought Kofi's arm into the Mo players face. Sour grapes, and it will happen again. Beat Mn.
 
#53      

AEX

AEX
Danger Zone
AEX
kyillinifan said:
Just hit free throws. We win against Mo if we hit just 5 more free throws. If you notice something in the Baylor loss and Mo loss the beginning of the game how many free throws did we miss. Way to many. The shame was the flagrant foul on Kofi. Even as the announcers said the defender brought Kofi's arm into the Mo players face. Sour grapes, and it will happen again. Beat Mn.
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Agreed. The last three games have really highlighted that when we hit free throws, get out in transition, and share the ball, we can win against anyone. Along with the free throw issues, little to no transition baskets against Baylor and needed to get Trent & Williams more involved on offense against Missouri.
 
#54      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
FWIW I'll try to get the stats wrap-up posted on game night tonight, since it's an earlier start.

I've got the last week of the year off from work, so be on the lookout for some major upgrades around that time!
 
#55      

illinitiger

I
illinitiger
AEX said:
Agreed. The last three games have really highlighted that when we hit free throws, get out in transition, and share the ball, we can win against anyone. Along with the free throw issues, little to no transition baskets against Baylor and needed to get Trent & Williams more involved on offense against Missouri.
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Good thoughts. After watching our amazing balance of offense against Duke, ..I have hope, but our offensive balance needs to be consistent and part of our culture.
 
#57      

Goode-for-3

Goode-for-3
Goode-for-3
danielb927 said:
FWIW I'll try to get the stats wrap-up posted on game night tonight, since it's an earlier start.

I've got the last week of the year off from work, so be on the lookout for some major upgrades around that time!
Click to expand...

I'm not sure how much feedback you're receiving on your stats posts but I personally look forward to and really enjoy that content. If you expanded on it to keep not just game stats but somehow found a way to provide trending (how many missed opportunities do we have per game and how is that trending as the season progresses?) I'd be equally if not more interested in that!

Keep up the good work.
 
#58      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Now that we are "back" (i.e., a clear top 25 team with a target on our back each game), these are the types of games that just make me SO nervous, lol. There isn't much to be gained from a win other than averting a potential disastrous stretch for our seeding prospects. To truly get back on track, in my view, we need to come out looking angry about the Mizzou loss and showing that it lit a fire in us. We can't just beat Minnesota for this team to regain its swagger and momentum; we have to beat them in a convincing enough way that the guys go to Rutgers on Saturday RIGHTFULLY confident that we are about to start a winning streak. Of course, if we lose to Minnesota, we will have to go WAY above and beyond expectations in the coming weeks to ... get back to the expectations we had before the Mizzou loss.

I could see any number of results with this squad ... the nervous part of me predicts a similar game to our home wins against Minnesota, Nebraska and Northwestern last year, where we don't necessarily look bad, we just aren't putting them away. A game like that, when it's close at the end, can yield any result. On the other hand, I could see us coming out like we did against Purdue twice last year, feeling hot and playing with a chip on our shoulder. GOD, I hope it's the latter, haha. I will be optimistic for this week, fellas:

Minnesota 69
#13 Illinois 86

#13 Illinois 70
#19 Rutgers 66

Back in the top ten!
 
#59      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
TCTORNADO said:
line back up to Illinois -8
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I don't know much about betting, so this could be complete nonsense ... but I always find lines for Illini games hilarious. It is well known that Illinois has a massive alumni base, and we have a ton of fans out west, IIRC. It seriously seems like Illini fans drive a statistically significant amount of the movement in these lines, haha. When our team is doing well and the line is perceived as unfavorable to us, it always seems to jolt down in the opening day or two. Conversely, when we open with a favorable line but are coming off a disappointing loss or two, these hypothetical Illini fans seem to be in pessimistic mode and bring it right down, haha. Probably nothing, but it's funny to imagine it like that, and given that we have a very large and seemingly schyzophrenic fan base at times ... it's not the craziest theory! :p
 
#60      

Goode-for-3

Goode-for-3
Goode-for-3
Fr8trn16 said:
Curbelo should be starting. I'm calling it now.
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If Trent or William's 3% falls off and Curbelo takes a few more I could see that switch happening based on offense; but based on defense Curbelo should not be starting period. Also, if you swap Curbelo in for Williams you'd need to also move Giorgi in for Trent or Miller. So really the only way to swap Curbelo into the starting line up is to take out Trent or Miller and I don't think that Curbelo is playing stronger than either of those guys at this point - and I don't really expect him to outplay them this year. Curbelo should expect to see 20+ minute games and should be a starter Game 1 next season though (unless Trent AND Da'Monte return).
 
#62      

TCTORNADO

TCTORNADO
TCTORNADO
EyeoftheIllini said:
Did Torvik have Illini losing to Miznoz?
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Somebody better than me is going to have to figure out if he has a "history" site. He changes data daily depending on game results. Since he is pretty close to a Vegas "range", I would say he had us as the favorites. Line in Vegas went off at Illinois -3.5.
He has the Minnesota game as Illinois -8.8, which as OP mentioned is too much for a BIG game.
 
#63      

EyeoftheIllini

EyeoftheIllini
EyeoftheIllini
Dan said:
“He’s a really interesting player. He sometimes makes passes that no one expects him to make. He seems the floor differently. I just have to start getting used to that. I’ve never really played with somebody like him who has that vision." #illini Kofi on Andre Curbelo.
https://twitter.com/mrwagner25/

Kofi Cockburn said he got a Nintendo Switch to entertain himself through the pandemic and the team has connected through it.
https://twitter.com/JWerner247/

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If Kofi showed better hands and was a little more athletic, he would have had another 6-10 points against MO. But Curbelo also has to realize that Kofi has some limitations. I’ve noticed this year that Kofi is sometimes put in a position that is not advantageous after a Belo pass. So while there may be no TO but a bad shot or TO ends up being Kofi’s, it’s not a good play by Curbelo even though pass looks good. Hopefully playing together helps with that issue.
 
#64      

ChiefIllini

C
ChiefIllini
Any chance the tick with Giorgi+Curbelo becomes greater than Kofi+Curbelo?

Giorgi has his limitations, but he might be more suited to play a more finesse role with Curbelo. Given how well he's looked most of this season, I wouldn't mind more Giorgi regardless.

Minny shouldn't win this game. We will have worse losses this year than Mizzou or Baylor. Maybe that's just singular, but it'll happen. Hopefully, we get some steam in this early slate, these first 5 games will be telling if we truly are a B1G contender or not.
 
#65      

Tophe

Tophe
Middle TN
Tophe
TCTORNADO said:
Somebody better than me is going to have to figure out if he has a "history" site. He changes data daily depending on game results. Since he is pretty close to a Vegas "range", I would say he had us as the favorites. Line in Vegas went off at Illinois -3.5.
He has the Minnesota game as Illinois -8.8, which as OP mentioned is too much for a BIG game.
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If you mouse over the score, it shows the original prediction which was Missouri -0.3
 
#66      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
Goode-for-3 said:
I'm not sure how much feedback you're receiving on your stats posts but I personally look forward to and really enjoy that content. If you expanded on it to keep not just game stats but somehow found a way to provide trending (how many missed opportunities do we have per game and how is that trending as the season progresses?) I'd be equally if not more interested in that!

Keep up the good work.
Click to expand...

I appreciate that a lot, and thanks for the cool idea -- just added it to the to-do list!
 
#67      

TCTORNADO

TCTORNADO
TCTORNADO
Tophe said:
If you mouse over the score, it shows the original prediction which was Missouri -0.3
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Thanks. I knew there were smarter people on here than me. I was surprised that Torvik had Missouri as the favorite. Vegas didn't.
 
#68      

CDRUSN

CDRUSN
CDRUSN
It starts for real tonight. The Big Ten title chase is going to be a start to finish combination demolition derby, cage fight, and slobberknocker. Taking nights off will put you out of the title race. We need to take care of lower tier teams like Minny, and win our fair share against top teams like Iowa, MSU, Wisky, OSU, Michigan, and Rutgers. We have the talent to do it, just need to cut back on sloppy play and missed free throws. Counting on this talented group of Illini and coaches to get it done. This is the best I've felt about our chances to win the Big Ten and get a high seed in the tourney since Dee and Deron wore orange and blue. ILL...INI!
 
#69      

Calvin

C
Calvin
EyeoftheIllini said:
If Kofi showed better hands and was a little more athletic, he would have had another 6-10 points against MO. But Curbelo also has to realize that Kofi has some limitations. I’ve noticed this year that Kofi is sometimes put in a position that is not advantageous after a Belo pass. So while there may be no TO but a bad shot or TO ends up being Kofi’s, it’s not a good play by Curbelo even though pass looks good. Hopefully playing together helps with that issue.
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There's definitely something out of synch. I tend to view it as Kofi's inexperience resulting in a sophomore slump, but you're definitely on to something about the new guards and how that's affecting his post play. Kofi was freshman of the year based partly on his insane, but raw physicality. Now he's got to find other ways to impact the game, and he's being frustrated. Guys in those situations usually take a while to work through it. He probably has a lot of habits based on what worked back when he wasn't as well scouted or game-planned against. Adding a PG like Curbelo, who is capable of really unusual and creative plays probably throws him off too. And those passes should get better with more play.

If you look at how Kofi's transformed himself, it's incredible. He seems pretty coachable too. Even if he doesn't get to a point where he understands spacing and movement enough to get easy looks for himself or others, he's still really valuable. My gut says he's in for a long sophomore campaign in the BIG, with some quiet games. But I think he'll start to break through at some point, either expanding his game, getting used to the new guards, or a combination of both. The way he operates in the post is kind of a catch-22 in that he's used his power to overcome defenders, but that leads to him concentrating on that approach. He needs to have a little more game, where he has greater awareness and recognition, can pass out of situations in an attacking way, etc. If I were one of the press guys, that would be one of my questions to Underwood --what are they working on with Kofi, given how teams seem to be game planning more for him now, and having some success with it.
 
#71      

GrangeDidn'tWearGray

G
GrangeDidn'tWearGray
danielb927 said:
The chart from Torvik's site should not be interpreted as a likely outcome for this upcoming season. What it represents is that the best and worst teams in the B1G would be expected to have 13 wins and 7 wins, respectively, on average. If we played the 2020-21 season, say, 100 times, Wisconsin would end up with ~130 wins, and Northwestern around 70 (not to say Torvik's model is perfect, but that's what it believes about those teams).

As your intuition rightly suggests, the likelihood of an actual season finishing with a 6-game spread between 13 teams is very small. But the reason is not (necessarily) that the model over-rates the bottom of the conference. Here's a simple example to show this.

Imagine a "conference" with two perfectly matched teams, where the odds of winning in any given game are exactly 50/50. If you made a chart like this for a 20 game "season", it would obviously show an average of 10.0 wins for each team. But how likely is it that 10 wins would be enough to win that 2-team conference? Turns out, only about a 1 in 6 chance of a 10 to 10 tie, even though the teams are exactly equal.

In the same way, the shortness of a 20-game B1G season means that some teams will almost certainly win or lose a couple more games than expected. This means we can expect the final standings to have a wider spread than the expected # of wins for each team, even if the model is correct about the teams' relative strengths.
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Thanks for the explanation.
 
#72      

Ga65

G
Ga65
Goode-for-3 said:
If Trent or William's 3% falls off and Curbelo takes a few more I could see that switch happening based on offense; but based on defense Curbelo should not be starting period. Also, if you swap Curbelo in for Williams you'd need to also move Giorgi in for Trent or Miller. So really the only way to swap Curbelo into the starting line up is to take out Trent or Miller and I don't think that Curbelo is playing stronger than either of those guys at this point - and I don't really expect him to outplay them this year. Curbelo should expect to see 20+ minute games and should be a starter Game 1 next season though (unless Trent AND Da'Monte return).
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I disagree on his not playing better than Miller. Miller didn’t shoot well but I don’t put much stock in that as anyone can have an off night. The stat that bothers me is rebounds. Miller with his size should be rebounding yet Belo is 3.2 vs 2 in far fewer minutes. Can’t really see where one has an advantage over the other in terms of defense but Belo seems to be rapidly improving with experience. Not trying to put Miller down as think he is a huge asset. Just think Belo brings something rare to offense and not a liability on defense.
 
#73      

illinipimp

illinipimp
illinipimp
Hate these "oh we should do this", "we should do that"," we should win by this much". Every game matters. One thing the 89 and 05 teams had in common. Intensity. Play hard for 40. Toughness. Take no one lightlty. Got them both to the final four. This team is talented enough. They didnt do those things against Mizzou and lost. 40 minutes guys.
 
#74      

GalloppingGost

G
GalloppingGost
And who would have thought in that stretch their only victory would be against Duke at Cameron Arena.
The Missouri game really bugs me. That was self inflicted. THEY HAVE TO MAKE FREE THROWS!!!!
Trent, Damonte, and Miller are two thirds of the Starting line up. They got to not fall asleep offensively for long stretches. Trent and Miller especially. I would be happy with Damonte scoring 8/9 a game as his defense and leadership are his strengths. But Trent and Miller, two lefties, should be good for atleast 20 Combined a game. Kofi needs to learn a few ball fakes and head fakes and never miss a shot three feet from the basket. He has got to make more free throws. If he doesn’t he will just get fouled repeatedly. Curbelo, is great but he can clean up the turnovers. This is Big Ten basketball.
And, for God Sake Kofi needs to stop fumbling passes. I hate to pick on Kofi. But all around, with his talent he has got to just play better.
If Grandison is going to eat up minutes he has got to hit some three’s and rebound.
This is the best team we have had in years. No time for sophomore slumps, or sloppy play. No excuses. This team needs to run and gun. Play fast and downhill. We got the pieces. Now let’s put it together and play smart. Time to get back up. 1-2 in the last ten days is nothing to write home about. This beginning stretch of conference games is not going to get easier. Let’s get Illinois basketball back on the map!
It’s over due.
Go Illini!!!!!!
 
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