I couldn’t agree more which is why I think those saying a couple weeks ago that they’d rather have lost both of those and trade them for B1G wins are nuts.
Pregame: Illinois vs Ohio State, Tuesday, January 24th, 6:00pm CT, ESPN
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Well, my first post which gave the full context is gone. lol. But in that post, I stated that I had not analyzed the KenPom breakdown. However, in this particular case, putting a team with 8 losses and only one win over a top 25 team ten spots above a team with 6 losses and 2 top 10 wins seems off. I'm guessing KenPom is supposed to less subjective due to it being mathematical instead of voting your opinion, but it still depends on what info you put into the system. Is it garbage in, garbage out? maybe? maybe not? You probably know better than I do.
And I totally agree that only one B!G team ranked is crazy. Especially when several were ranked before they started the main part of the B1G schedule.
I wondered the same thing looking at the rankings Monday. ONE BIG team in the top 25 and they are number one. Must be like Gonzaga in a weak league.
Makes you wonder about the validity of the rankings. How much time do the voters spend anyalyzing versus just looking at win/loss records?Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
It is really quite simple. 5 of the 6 losses for Illinois were by double digits, whereas 7 of the 8 OSU losses were by single-digits, including 4 B1G losses by 3 or less points. From metric standpoints, the magnitude of Illini losses heavily skews them in the negative direction. Based upon these factors, it is quite easy to argue that OSU is way better than their record indicates. Therefore, it is no surprise that the line started at Illini -2. Can the Illini win by double digits...absolutely, but based upon OSU's play, it is very realistic to anticipate a very tight game. I personally feel the line is very accurate for the game tonight.
Polls lean way too heavily on overall win-loss record (due to voters placing more reliance there), and as we know, they are not a great predictor tool for outcomes of games (the reason why we have so many poll "upsets" but not necessarily Vegas upsets, i.e. see us vs Wisconsin two weeks ago). This is why I really couldn't care less about polls. Having a number in front of your name is cool, but it ultimately does not mean too much.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
This probably belongs in Bracketology thread, but I will respond here. The B1G has one team in top 25, but depending on which bracketologist you look at, up to 10 teams in projected field. This speaks volumes to the depth of the league (and the extent of cannibalism within the league), with only one team that stands clear from the pack. This can't be said for a number of other larger conferences.I wondered the same thing looking at the rankings Monday. ONE BIG team in the top 25 and they are number one. Must be like Gonzaga in a weak league.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I feel like I've said this a lot lately, but the difference between a win and a loss here just seems so huge. As for our total Tournament resume, there STILL isn't a bad loss and a couple really good wins (even an OSU win tonight would still be another Quad 1 win!); it's the horrendous inconsistency that has our fans worried that by Selection Sunday, our resume will not be that great. With that said, if we can win tonight, we are...
Record: 14-6
NET Ranking: #28 (and going up)
Road Record: 2-2
Neutral Record: 2-2
vs. Quad 1: 3-4
vs. Quad 1: 3-4
vs. Quad 2: 3-2
vs. Quad 3: 2-0
vs. Quad 4: 6-0
That's pretty damn good ... but can we AT LAST find the consistency to keep it good? Pulling out those UCLA and Texas wins is REALLY propping us up still, and we need to start piling on the wins. The good news is that it seems like all of college hoops is a complete circus (in a fun way), so we are hardly alone. As the story has been for what seems like forever now, if we can get in a groove and get hot, a really good seed is still on the table. And if you have a really good seed ... the odds of a deep Tourney run skyrocket, regardless of what people say.
Here's to seeing the team that won four straight again!
As for our total Tournament resume, there STILL isn't a bad loss and a couple really good wins (even an OSU win tonight would still be another Quad 1 win!); it's the horrendous inconsistency that has our fans worried that by Selection Sunday, our resume will not be that great. With that said, if we can win tonight, we are...Record: 14-6
NET Ranking: #28 (and going up)
Road Record: 2-2
Neutral Record: 2-2
vs. Quad 1: 3-4
vs. Quad 1: 3-4
vs. Quad 2: 3-2
vs. Quad 3: 2-0
vs. Quad 4: 6-0
That's pretty damn good ... but can we AT LAST find the consistency to keep it good? Pulling out those UCLA and Texas wins is REALLY propping us up still, and we need to start piling on the wins. The good news is that it seems like all of college hoops is a complete circus (in a fun way), so we are hardly alone. As the story has been for what seems like forever now, if we can get in a groove and get hot, a really good seed is still on the table. And if you have a really good seed ... the odds of a deep Tourney run skyrocket, regardless of what people say.
Here's to seeing the team that won four straight again!
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Yep ... in week 5 (largely before conference play, IIRC), the polls looked like this:
#4 Purdue
#13 Maryland
#14 Indiana
#17 Illinois
#25 Ohio State
Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan State receiving votes
There have obviously been a few total flops (lookin' at you, Iowa, losing to Eastern Illinois!), but the other non-conference results (Illinois over UCLA/Texas, Purdue over Gonzaga/Duke/Marquette, Indiana over Xavier, etc.) point to the Big Ten cannibalizing itself at least as much as it being "overrated," IMO.
I agree with your thoughts as I had this already as a given. You mention 70%. I would take that. Under 50% is the issue. The idea of missing a FT is not what I am talking about. If you have poor technique such as Harris does with his release can be fixed if you want to. You gotta wanna!! How hard is it to watch how other people shoot and emulate. Technique needs to be taught. The teacher appears when the student is ready. I am frustrated with 'doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results'. On Dainja, he cleaned up his approach where ball did not drop behind his head as he controlled how far back he took the ball before release. Last game he was somewhere in between the beginning of the year and the when he changed the previous game. I understand habits have to be formed. Give me 21 days and I can change the under 70% to over 70%. The last 4 years of coaching my teams shot 65% at a min and in one year we were 73%. Legs matter!! Also I had one single player play college ball in that time frame. Talent has to count for some results!
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Never forget Michigan losing to Central Michigan!
How do we account for a win (Rutgers) that was a mistake?
The B1G not winning it all is also hurting everyone. But most years they don’t under perform by seed. The last couple years have been an exception. But in the midst of this, St. Peter’s says hello to Kentucky.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
And even last year where there were specific upsets like Wisconsin losing to Iowa State or Purdue losing to St. Peter's, we STILL didn't underperform our seeds. We had zero 1- or 2-seeds, and we thus had zero teams in the Elite Eight. We had two 3-seeds, a 4-seed and a 5-seed, and that makes our two teams in the Sweet Sixteen and zero in the Elite Eight or beyond actually pretty par for the course, even if the specific games and teams that lost early/advanced were surprising.
I think the COVID cancellation really warped people's sense of time, because the 2021 NCAA Tournament is the only time in recent memory that the Big Ten has unambiguously choked REALLY hard, and yet it has become a consistent meme somehow. In 2019, our conference had a great showing...
Once conferences hit league play, they are pretty much just moving around rating points. No one is going to move much if they all play near .500, or even 12-8 w/narrow wins and losses. Any losses to MN will really hurt the league. Losing to NB is only slightly better. Either effectively throwing rating points out of the pool.
Predictions - time to get flamed:
6 Big10 teams are seeded 6-11 this year.
If IL loses today, they get a 10-11 seed (10-10 in conference), and have a non-trivial chance of missing the tourney at 9-11.
If IL wins today, they get a 7-10 seed. (12-8 to 10-10 in conference, my bet is on 11-9 and a 8-9 seed.)
I was expecting better until I took off my glasses and looked at the remaining schedule. I don't see this changing unless there is a major improvement in the offensive schemes and execution. The ball needs to bounce less, and pass at a higher velocity. The few possessions where they passed, and put some snap in it resulted in good looks. Other things that would help are becoming elite at hitting our MF free throws and layups, and taking the open 3 pt looks. Pardon the coach speak.
Goillinikobd
- Southeastern US
I don’t know, I might take the women’s team if they can add Iowa’s #22 from their women’s team on a loaner basis.
uofi7477
- Silver & Gold Vandals
This ^^^!
When the co-champions of the best conference in the country get a 2 and 4 seed, that definitely sets up for the making of upsets. It also doesn't make much sense.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Wisconsin had 8 losses and Illinois 10 losses last year. A 3 and 4 seed was definitely justifiable for those two teams. Iowa I felt was the one team to get snubbed on seeding by getting a 5 seed after winning B1G Tourney...but of course they crapped the bed against Richmond in first round. Purdue got a 3-seed, which was not terribly underseeded. As long as the B1G is very competitive without any breakaway teams, it will be hard to justify any team getting higher than a 2 or 3 seed. This year may be exception, if Purdue continues their torrent pace.
In short, the B1G did not have any dominant team last year that deserved anything higher than what they got.
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