I guess today is as good of a time to be a prediction day as any. In many ways I think this game will come down to 2 key aspects: 1. Will our LBs and CBs have appreciably better play recognition, positioning, gap control, technique and coverage such that we can defend the run and short-medium pass? And 2. Will we be able to shore up the right side of our O-line to actually give Luke time and protection?
For offense, if we're really optimistic, Zy gets moved back to RG and returns to the more than capable form he showed last year and one of the raw freshmen take over at RT and look not completely out of place. Of course, the issue is, this Penn State team has far far far above and away the best defensive line we've played and Toledo and Kansas both absolutely torched us. Now we can mitigate this by trying to go max protect or barge formations forcing PSU to decide whether they want to put 8 in the box to stop the run while opening up the TEs and slants, or whether they want to still cover and give our o-line opportunities to block through to the second level.
For defense, we did have players start showing signs of life. Newton looked like he was very much returning to form and if he gets even half the amount of penetration he got against Kansas, he'll have a monster game. As well, Jacas, while taking some awful angles was getting into the backfield against Kansas and Allar shouldn't be able to juke him out of his shoes. Also, our safeties have played decent, and Matt Bailey coming back should help with leadership, play recognition, and run support so long as he's healthy. So that's the good. The bad? We need Randolph and Coleman to show up and they've been very quiet. The worse? PSUs o-line is better than Kansas and they have an even more powerful and dangerous running attack, something we have been unable to stop. The ugliest? Our LBs have not only struggled with all facets of the game including fundamentals, they've shown little to know understanding of where they need to be on the field or their role.
At the end of the day you either believe that 8 days is enough time to sort out our issues or you don't. For me, even if I believe that we can patch our o-line and adjust scheming sufficiently, and believe that the magnitude of the game gets our defense to show up and ball out, I have a difficult time thinking our LBs will make such a large jump in this time period, and if they can't, we will struggle stopping the run and the short to medium pass. And that is where PSU will thrive as it plays to their strengths.
So as sad as it is, and even though I liked us for the upset 2 weeks ago, I just don't think our LBs can make the leap they need to in such a short time to effectively stop the PSU offense.
My pick:
PSU 34
ILL 13