Pregame: Illinois vs Penn State, Thursday, March 9th, 5:30pm CT, BTN

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#127      

PizzaHutParkingLot

PizzaHutParkingLot
McPherson, KS
PizzaHutParkingLot
IllinoisssssssVarsity said:
I think we start the non-dain lineup and rotate him in when picket gets breaks. Maybe a 1-2 minute overlap here or there.

The Coleman + all the 6’5-6’7 guys lineup has been really good when we’ve actually tried.
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Hungry Chicken Wings GIF by Hooters

The recent success of our 'jumbo wing' lineup has me feeling 𝘴𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘭𝘺 optimistic. I'd love to see more Point Hawkins.
 
#128      

The Sprouting Divot

The Sprouting Divot
Invisible and Bulletproof
Miracle Mile
The Sprouting Divot
Mike1976 said:
According to STATS LLC., there have been 981 similar matchups across Division I college basketball over the past 10 seasons. The teams entering the third game 2-0 are a combined 710-271 (.724 winning percentage) in the third meeting.



So over a 10-year period in college basketball including almost 1,000 games, the team that won the first 2 games won the third meeting 72.4% of the time. So it clearly doesn’t follow that it is hard to beat a team 3 times.
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Thanks for looking that up. I've long suspected that the whole "it's really hard to beat a team in three matchups in the same season" folk wisdom was just something that fans leaned on to give hope in a seemingly hopeless situation.

Or to retroactively ease the pain of a frustrating loss (1989...).
 
#129      

IlliniFandom

IlliniFandom
IlliniFandom
Birdus said:
Really? Lets see how it goes and then revisit this discussion.
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we've seen it go twice before and then some (and by some I'm talking about our unpredictable play in the 1st half...). I get it's hard to be beat 3 times in the B1G, but I can't see who we put on him to slow him down.
 
#130      

ChiefIllinois

C
ChiefIllinois
Any shot Epps is back? I assume if he isn’t even traveling with the team it’s a slim to zero shot, more curious about potential timeline.
 
#133      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
Mike1976 said:
According to STATS LLC., there have been 981 similar matchups across Division I college basketball over the past 10 seasons. The teams entering the third game 2-0 are a combined 710-271 (.724 winning percentage) in the third meeting.



So over a 10-year period in college basketball including almost 1,000 games, the team that won the first 2 games won the third meeting 72.4% of the time. So it clearly doesn’t follow that it is hard to beat a team 3 times.
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Thanks for digging that up! Definitely suggestive that a 3rd win isn't any harder than the first two, although to be especially rigorous you'd have to go case-by-case and adjust for the relative quality of the two teams.
 
#134      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
danielb927 said:
I know Penn State has had our number, but I'm honestly a little happier drawing them rather than the winner of Nebraska/Minnesota. The Huskers have been hot lately and, assuming they beat Minnesota, they'll have a game under their belt at the UC. Penn State is objectively a better team, so maybe I'm just grasping at straws... but I have a feeling I'd be sweating the Nebraska opener a bit if I were MD.

I'm also curious about the old adage that "it's hard to beat the same team three times in a season". It's an interesting one because in a literal sense, it's almost certainly true: there are three ways to go 2-1 and only one way to go 3-0. But the adage is usually used after you're 2-0 or 0-2 against a team, to imply that the last game is more likely to go the other way - and I'm curious whether there's any data to support that. I'm guessing not.
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I saw a stat one time that the 2-0 team goes 3-0 about 70% of the time. However, you’d REALLY need to look into it a bit more. Kansas beating Oklahoma for a third time in the Big XII Tournament is a totally different beast than our 2009 Illini team failing to beat a higher ranked Purdue for the third time in the BTT that year.

I’d guess for “equal” teams, that third win actually is pretty hard, and that’s where the perception comes from. Nobody is on the lookout for someone getting their third win of the year against Minnesota in Chicago, haha.

EDIT: I see someone already posted actual stats, haha. I still stand by my assertion that when you take out your #1 BTT seeds vs. lower-ranked teams it would be a lot more even, and I bet when it comes to getting a third straight “upset,” the percentage IS in fact low.
 
#137      

danbor

D
danbor
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I saw a stat one time that the 2-0 team goes 3-0 about 70% of the time. However, you’d REALLY need to look into it a bit more. Kansas beating Oklahoma for a third time in the Big XII Tournament is a totally different beast than our 2009 Illini team failing to beat a higher ranked Purdue for the third time in the BTT that year.

I’d guess for “equal” teams, that third win actually is pretty hard, and that’s where the perception comes from. Nobody is on the lookout for someone getting their third win of the year against Minnesota in Chicago, haha.

EDIT: I see someone already posted actual stats, haha. I still stand by my assertion that when you take out your #1 BTT seeds vs. lower-ranked teams it would be a lot more even, and I bet when it comes to getting a third straight “upset,” the percentage IS in fact low.
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PSU beating Illinois by more than 10 pts each time is evidence we aren't dealing with and 'equal' matchup. If they edged us out twice, then it would be more of an equal match.
 
#138      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I saw a stat one time that the 2-0 team goes 3-0 about 70% of the time. However, you’d REALLY need to look into it a bit more. Kansas beating Oklahoma for a third time in the Big XII Tournament is a totally different beast than our 2009 Illini team failing to beat a higher ranked Purdue for the third time in the BTT that year.

I’d guess for “equal” teams, that third win actually is pretty hard, and that’s where the perception comes from. Nobody is on the lookout for someone getting their third win of the year against Minnesota in Chicago, haha.

EDIT: I see someone already posted actual stats, haha. I still stand by my assertion that when you take out your #1 BTT seeds vs. lower-ranked teams it would be a lot more even, and I bet when it comes to getting a third straight “upset,” the percentage IS in fact low.
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Exactly. I think my hypothesis agrees. Something like: "when controlling for the estimated quality of two teams based on all available results in a season, the likelihood of Team A beating Team B does not change measurably based on their record in two (or even one) previous meetings."
 
#140      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
danbor said:
PSU beating Illinois by more than 10 pts each time is evidence we aren't dealing with and 'equal' matchup. If they edged us out twice, then it would be more of an equal match.
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I guess that's the flip side of the idea, isn't it? The old saw is that a team will "figure you out" after 2 wins and make that 3rd win even harder to get. This notion is that a team that beats you soundly twice really "has your number", making a 3rd win even easier (relative to your "average" quality of play).
 
#141      

pruman91

pruman91
Paducah, Ky
pruman91
All this talk aboot one team beating another team 3 times in one season has brought back some severely nauseating flashbacks from the 1989 season ......please , no mas.......I really really am flashing that Higgins rebound basket .........yucky-yuck............
 
#144      

Bigtex

Bigtex
DFW
Bigtex
illini0440 said:
It isn't so much Pickett, it's running the other shooters off the 3 point line, fighting through screens and chasing down shooters off curls. RJ has been really good at that as of late. I expect to see a lot of him Thursday.
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Not so much Pickett!!!! 41 pts of his teams 93 says too much pickett.
 
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#145      

battle

battle
battle
The Sprouting Divot said:
Thanks for looking that up. I've long suspected that the whole "it's really hard to beat a team in three matchups in the same season" folk wisdom was just something that fans leaned on to give hope in a seemingly hopeless situation.

Or to retroactively ease the pain of a frustrating loss (1989...).
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informational but one needs to filter the results to teams of comparable competitiveness - including a 30 vs 200 game is not revealing (eg Gonzaga vs whomever in the first few rounds of conf tourny). I think 2-0 vs Minn or teams like Louisville, we wouldn't be worried about a third matchup saying its hard to beat a team three times
 
#146      

Bigtex

Bigtex
DFW
Bigtex
727ill said:
Big +1. RJ played 3 minutes last time we played them!
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RJ 16 minutes in December and only 3 minutes on Valentines day. Agree RJ's play of late will provide good minutes on defense and hopefully offensively.
 
#148      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
danbor said:
PSU beating Illinois by more than 10 pts each time is evidence we aren't dealing with and 'equal' matchup. If they edged us out twice, then it would be more of an equal match.
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I'm not even talking about specific matchups, more the overall quality of the teams. Given both of our teams' performance over the entire season, you could argue we are fairly equal in the abstract; we are in a 7/10 matchup on Thursday together, after all.
 
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