Pregame: Illinois vs Penn, Thursday, March 19th, 8:25pm CT, TNT

Status
Not open for further replies.
#528      
BalloonsTheElephant
NarrowJ said:
They're 346th in the nation in 2 point field goal percentage which was why I was confused at their shot diet (they seem to much prefer 2s than 3s, but they're horrible from 2 and very good from 3)
Click to expand...

Maybe they try to only take high quality shots from three, which results in a higher percentage. During our slump, our selection has been not nearly as good as it was earlier in the season.

We need to get back to playing inside out where our drives open up shots from the outside. In football parlance, we are using the pass to open up the run, which is generally backwards. We seem to come out of each half and see how the threes fall and adjust accordingly, most of the time.
 
#529      
WeLoveNoOther
My thought was that there have been 40 tournaments played. 23 of them featured a 3-14 upset.

Your 5seed example has many years where multiple 12seeds won. There hasn't been any years where multiple 14seeds won -- THAT"S WHAT I THOUGHT, but I was wrong. There have been 8 times multiple 3seeds beat a 14seed.


SO, if we'd like to use the probability formulas, here's the gist.

Formula for probability of 1 upset: 1 - (1 - p) ^ 4

Formula for probability of 2 upsets: 1 - (1 - p) ^ 4 - 4p(1-p) ^ 3

For 3-14 games: p = 0.144

For 4-13 games: p = 0.206

For 5-12 games: p = 0.356

So, the probability of at least one 3-14 upset in a given tournament: 46.29%

The probability of at least one 4-13 upset in a given tournament: 60.26%

The probability of at least one 5-12 upset in a given tournament: 82.80%

.....

The probability of at least TWO 3-14 upsets in a given tournament: 10.18%

The probability of at least TWO 4-13 upsets in a given tournament: 24.22%

The probability of at least TWO 5-12 upsets in a given tournament: 54.87%
Click to expand...

I'd just like to add that 38.4% of all statistics are made up. 😎

/s (for those who need clarification)
 
#530      
21ChampaignSt
Fly Illini Fly! said:
For as bad as people suggest our 3pt defense is... it really isn't. Here's where we rank nationally in opponent 3pt percentage:

View attachment 48364

That is Illinois' best mark in years.

In 2025 we were 159
In 2024 we were 195
In 2023 we were 132
In 2022 we were 71
In 2021 we were 117

I'm not saying critiquing our team is automatically a bad thing. It's just when you do so, at least attempt to make your point factually true?
Click to expand...
I don't think it's a critique and it's certainly not false to say teams will take more threes against us. We are 274th in opponent 3p rate which is far and away the lowest we've ranked in that metric since BU has been here.

The question is, will they make them? Most of the time, teams don't make enough of them against us. But we've allowed 10+ threes in about 1/3 of our high major games. And when that happens, we're 3-6.

Additionally, in Q1 games, our opponents are shooting 35% from three which ranks 153rd.

However, Penn is neither a high major nor a Q1 game so we should be more than fine on Thursday regardless. But posters are right to pay special attention to 3pt shooting when evaluating future match ups.
 
#532      
New Creation
Now, hang a banner.

1773769035690.png
 
#538      
I-L-L 1318
Genuinely curious why some of you folks tune into the games..if it makes you that miserable and void of any hope, why put yourself through it? Recruits see things online...
I am pumped to watch this team have a last go at it together. Most wins since 2006!!! Hope they can make a 2nd weekend run, but it has been a fun year regardless.
 
#540      
EmeraldCityIllini
One thing i'd like to see this game. When the shot clock winds down, lets crowd their space.

A lot of times we play back a bit and dare them to make at tough 3 over our length. Anything under 2.5 seconds, just get up in the offensive player and make them hit a tough running 2 pointer. Especially this team.
 
#547      
Se Il Illini
I will say it again. I like this match-up. Fran McCaffery is an offensive minded coach and defense is sometimes optional. This mindset should play right into the hands of Illinois. Look for a bunch of points to be scored.
 
#550      
sulli
1773775038797.png


Interesting graph. Don't want to overread into this graph, but it seems like the torvik ranking on the defensive side matters more than the offense to the people ranking/seeding teams.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back