As Robert detailed on Illiniboard, pre-UCLA injury Keaton was much better than post-UCLA injury Keaton. That is the difference.
Pregame: Illinois vs Penn, Thursday, March 19th, 8:25pm CT, TNT
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Don’t think this is accurate at all. He’s almost too passive at times.
Noblesville Illini
- Nappanee, IN
Prior to the BTT game, he said his shoulder and back felt a lot better. So, with 5 more days rest, do we have good Keaton back?
Despite their good record(s) I honestly don’t enjoy watching them that much and I’ve been a season ticker holder for 40+ years. Here’s why:
+ BU is a bad X’s and O’s coach and his DC and OC aren’t very good either. He’s horrible at making in-game adjustments, rarely runs good plays coming out of timeouts, too much standing around and they don’t run many organized/structured sets of anything.
+ This 5 out offense is very one dimensional and is boring watching them jack up 3’s, instead of putting the two 7 footers down at the low/high block from time to time and work the ball inside, which would also open up the outside more. I hate isolation bball, which is why I don’t watch the NBA.
+ Their offense doesn’t provide consistency and isn’t dependable game in/out because it’s so reliant on 3 point shooting. This offense needs more balance inside/outside as I already stated and less dependence on the 3 point shot. Live by the three die by the three!! I could go on and on but I’ll stop.
Lastly, I played/coached basketball for many years and much of what BU runs is very basic stuff. It may sound ironic but I know so many people that played/coached this game and are the ones most critical and frustrated. As opposed to fans that enjoy it for pure entertainment value, have limited in-depth knowledge of the game and are merely happy with a good record. Not trying to offend anyone just sharing my thoughts.
Pretty sure we were only up by one point vs 14 seed morehead state at the half in 2024
Was a Quaker chasing you?
If you DID go on and on, certainly at some point you'd get to the stuff about all the game winning, which is actually the point.
I agree it's frustrating that we don't have some out of bounds plays for key moments or use more timeouts to stop runs, and of course everyone's entitled to their own preference for watching certain styles of play. I also agree our defense has been lacking for a few years, and has always been lacking under BU against good opponents even in our years with better-looking season totals.
And while it's not impossible that our offense could be even better with a different coach/assistant/scheme, our offense has been excellent. On the whole, which of these would you prefer:
Offensive efficiency +/- standard deviation (1-seeds plus Purdue since they're the top offense):
Purdue: 132.1 +/- 12.1
ILL: 131.2 +/- 10.5
Mich: 127.4 +/- 13.1
Duke: 126.9 +/- 10.3
Ariz: 125.5 +/- 9.5
FL: 124.5 +/- 11.3
Purdue is ahead of us, but we've been a bit more consistent, so you can't go wrong with either. The other teams are clearly worse.
Against Quad 1a, maybe we're #4 depending on how you value consistency:
Vandy: 136.6 +/- 17.0
Purdue: 134.1 +/- 9.7
ILL: 132.4 +/- 11.9
Ariz: 132.3 +/- 6.8
FL: 130.7 +/- 9.8
Mich: 127.5 +/- 13.0
Duke: 128.3 +/- 9.1
Edit: also, our second half letdowns have been maddening, and that's not captured in game-to-game variations
Ya know.
That game was h*** for the first 29 minutes until the Tour de Force run.
Sneaky play of the game in that one. Morehead was up 3 (I believe) 2 minutes in to second half, we turn it over, and Guerrier hustles his a*** off to block a shot at the rim on a fastbreak.
The TSJ bounce pass to Dainja dunk is one of my favorite sequences the past decade. BYU had already got upset, just felt like a massive breakthrough you could feel in real time and see the whole team and coaching staff notice in their reactions.
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I love this team and have been a fan since the early 2000s before the Groce era killed my appetite to tune in anymore.
BU feels like exactly what the program needed after Groce disaster. He’s consistently had solid talent on the roster. Everyone would agree the Ayo / Kofi duo should have been enough for at least a second weekend.
Outside the Iowa State win 2024 when we clearly had the best and most athletic player on the court in TSJ, it’s hard to point to BU getting more than what was expected out of the roster. A 30-0 run by UConn is hard to forget.
Loyola, Houston, Arkansas, UConn, and Kentucky. Outside of UConn, you’d expect to at least go .500 across those other 4 games. Not only did we go 0-4, the result wasn’t even really in question in the final minutes of the games.
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This is the product of the fact the University simply doesn’t have overall funds, Chicago ties, or program cache to build a roster to regularly compete with the Duke/UConn/Kansas of the world. But apparently we’re now also behind Michigan, Houston, and Florida. Could argue probably behind Arizona and Iowa State too now.
How did we squander the 2000-2005 mystique of this team in terms of the large Chicago media market and Illini fanbase coast to coast?
Were would you rank BU in scheme. roster construction, and Xs and Os among Big 10 coaches? I’ll leave that to y’alls opinion.
Somewhere along the way… Chicago sort of spiritually annexed itself from the state of Illinois basketball. That should have been our superpower. I don’t have the full history as to why that is the case. I also don’t know why our 1989 and 2001-2005 teams didn’t light a fire underneath the program the way it has for say a program like Houston this decade.
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I’ll still be tuned in with all the hopium in the world these next couple weekends (hoping we make the Sweet 16 in a year with no 2024 UConn-esque juggernaut). But I don’t believe we can defeat anyone the 1 or 2 seed line besides MSU in our current form. And most certainly not four of them starting in the Sweet 16.
So, you have to begin with the math (33.3 percent of three-pointers going in is equal to 50 percent of twos) and realize the individual talents give this team a "shooters chance. That is a pretty exciting thing to watch. And they are not just "jack up 3's," as you would call it. Many times I recall a driver passing to the far corner or a pick and pop or swinging the ball around the top of the key as a way to get an opportunity for a good three point chance. I believe the ball movement is much more exciting than a high/low offense.
Secondly, you may look at the value of crashing the boards (5 out is harder for the defense to box out). These are the two reasons (IMHO) that Illinois' offensive scheme has the team top rated for efficiency in the NCAA division one. I am sure the average is over a point per possession, but there must be a way that a talented statistician could compute that point per possession in wins versus losses. My guess is that the losses come where the rebounding component is weak (and the team being "out toughed" is likely the downfall). That happens over a long season and especially where two freshmen are starters. Please forgive me if I am repeating what will become an old story, if not already one, but the hope of Keaton Wagler's family was that his freshman year would not be used as a red-shirt. It's been wonderful to have witnessed the regular season and I'm sorry for your frustration. I believe your criticism is just plain wrong!
The 05 team only led Fairleigh Dickinson by one point at half. The reactions and hot takes in that game thread would have been quite the read lol.
Indeed, we've scored 1.25 points per possession. The offensive rating (and defensive rating) that you often hear discussed is the same idea, but per 100 possessions and adjusted for opponent defensive (or offensive) quality. In that, we're more like 131-132 on offense and 98-99 on defense for the whole season.
Comparing wins and losses, you definitely want to look at the opponent-adjusted values, since many of our wins are against very bad defenses (and offenses), while our losses are all against quality teams.
Wins: AdjO 132.2, AdjD 94.3 (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent offense)
Losses: AdjO 128.3 AdjD 106.6
So while our offense has been a step below our average in our losses, our defense has faltered much worse. Even in our Quad 1A wins, our defense has been worse than our season average at 98.2
Our offensive rebounding has been about the same in our Q1 wins and losses. The biggest difference has simply been points per shot (aka eFG%) and fewer free throws. Defensively, we have allowed a slightly higher eFG% in our Q1 losses, but it's our opponents' offensive rebounding and number of free throws taken that are larger factors.
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The Ivisic brothers and Mirkovic will give Penn too much to handle down low. Any time they get the ball down low, Penn will probably bring the quick double, but I doubt it will do them any good. Illini 85 Penn 63 in this one. But I don't like the thought of playing UNC in round 2.
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Don't forget the fact that you never know who is going to play until an hour before the game when the injury report comes out. If I was a season ticket holder paying for expensive tickets I'd be pissed off at the number of injuries we've suffered in practices. The Pizza Hut parking lot act has worn thin for me. And we have to stop the Messiah talk about Fletch. Is he really head and shoulders above every other trainer in the Big Ten, or for that matter the Universe?
I'm fine with critiquing the enjoyment of the style of play and Brad's in-game adjustments, but there realistically is no argument that Illinois should be making scheme changes to a top 5 offense in the country.
Go back to sleep so we can know how it ends up
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
Stop eating anchovies with hot sauce at bedtime! 
Great interview with Dee! Still wish there was a way for him to come home but know that ship likely has sailed.
I find it tiresome to hear so much criticism of BU. He's a good coach and has the resume (at Illinois) to prove it. I too would like to see the Ivisic brothers get the ball down low more often, but I'm not at practice every day. I can't say anything about what goes on in practice. Finallly, we are among the leading offenses in the country. That doesn't suggest a substandard coach. BTW, I'd like us to play more zone on defense with Tomi and Big Z on the floor together. A 2-1-2 matchup would be nice. I don't believe that will happen though, and I'm sure BU has his reasons. He's a good coach; we're fortunate to have him.All of this
Here is a solution...give me your season tickets and that will spare you the pain of watching a team that has the most conference wins in the last 7 years and is a number 3 seed in the tourney
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