In my opinion schools like Auburn , Alabama, Georgia, Houston, Oregon, Ole Miss , Texas Tech , Clemson , Tennessee should never be on the same level or better than Illinois in basketball.
Pregame: Illinois vs Texas/Xavier
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It is a surprising stat, but when you look into it it’s a little deceiving. When we’ve had good teams we’ve been a 1 seed so it’s impossible to beat a higher seed, we’ve been a 4/5 seed a lot which again doesn’t give you much chance to beat more than one seed higher unless you knock off the 1 seed, the years we’ve been higher than a 5 seed - we’ve been a 6 seed twice and 7 seed twice in our tournament history in the last 50+ years
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35 appearances, 80 games, five Final Fours. The thought that we've never defeated a team more than one seed line above us (i.e. beating a 4 seed as a 5 seed) is mind-boggling given that sample size of games. I wonder if there is any other program with, say, more than 50 NCAA tournament games that has a similar track record.
Our record against teams seeded more than 2 seeds ahead of us is 0-6 in tournament history by my Quick Look- 4 of those times was running into the 1 seed
So just 0-2 in other scenarios as a more than 2 seed lower , Miami game in 2013 with a really bad out of bounds call before review in the Groce era. And against Vanderbilt in 1993. So it’s only been two real chances and we’re 0-2
OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
Happy to get this crew. While Harlan can be a little over the top on a few things, overall I love his energy (and it will be needed given it's the Friday night late game and most of us will have been watching games since 11 AM Thursday by that time!). Bonner is solid. I like Stan as an analyst. He can be a little annoying at times, but he seems to find little nuggets of insight that I wouldn't have considered otherwise. I like that in a game analyst. Plus, he has the Ron Jeremy 'stache down to an art form.
I'm always envious of those teams that get like a 10 seed out of a power conference and then make the Sweet Sixteen so they can pretend like they had a great season when it was really just a nice 2-game stretch.
OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
Hey, it got Quin Snyder at least two more years at Mizzou than he probably would have had otherwise!
sacraig
- The desert
I want nice things like that when we have a down season.
Homecoming 2019
- Chicago
So 0-6 against teams 2 seeds ahead of us and 9 losses to teams 2 seeds behind us. Not great
Nice work, this is great context to the stat.
I think the stat that is much more jarring is the 7** tournament gap between 2013 - 2021 where the Illini didn't make a tournament, I'm sure this was a hot topic in 2019/2020 but prior to that we only went 2 years in a row 1 time without making the tournament since 1980.
**obligatory astrick for covid.
Soooooo much smoke out there that the Illini will be upset this year. Hopefully this is bulletin board material for the guys. Let's shock the world and win this game!!!
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Check out the Illinois Fighting Illini College Basketball History, Stats, Records, Polls, Leaders and More College Basketball Stats at Sports-Reference.com
35 appearances, 80 games, five Final Fours. The thought that we've never defeated a team more than one seed line above us (i.e. beating a 4 seed as a 5 seed) is mind-boggling given that sample size of games. I wonder if there is any other program with, say, more than 50 NCAA tournament games that has a similar track record.
That is crazy
One other thing I noticed is that from 1983-2007 (25 year period) we only missed the tournament 4x (and 2 of those seasons we were ineligible, whereas also one could argue missing in 96 & 98 were due to the recruiting restrictions that were also part of the NCAA 'punishment')
97 and 98 were years we should have reached the S16. Losing to 14 seeded Tenn-Chatt, now Chattanooga, in 97 and losing to Maryland, the only year we beat MD in the tourney was 84, in 98. We were a 6 in 97 and a 5 in 98.
Definitely remember all of that, albeit vaguely!
LouHenson
- Naples Florida
Tremendous post.. No way I could have worded that better. In my 60+ years as a fan this seed is just about as good as any except 2005. Well we were a #1 and we were just lucky the FF was in St. LouisYeah, I think Texas' recent victory over Texas A&M has a lot of people thinking that maybe their talent is finally starting to gel ... a familiar hypothetical!
As has been discussed, we can absolutely lose to Texas ... or Xavier. And we can OBVIOUSLY lose to #3 Kentucky. However, look at the #11 and #3 seeds we could have drawn by NET Ranking:
#3 SEEDS
#7 Texas Tech
#9 Iowa State
#14 Kentucky
#15 Wisconsin
#11 SEEDS
#36 North Carolina
#31 VCU
#39 Texas
#45 Xavier
#52 San Diego State
#56 Drake
So we got the "middle of the pack" as far as the teams in our immediate bracket, but the following appears very relevant to me...
(1) #11 Xavier has just ONE Quad 1 win on the year, which is tied with North Carolina for the fewest Quad 1 wins out of the #11 seeds.
(2) Despite a nice win over rival Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament, Texas ended the regular season losing 7 of its final 9 games, and even with the SEC Tournament run, the Longhorns have lost 5 of their last 8.
(3) #3 Kentucky has a key injury, potentially making them more vulnerable.
(4) We get to play our First and (hopefully) Second Round games in front of an Illini-friendly crowd in Milwaukee.
(5) Because we were placed in the Midwest region, as well, we would then move to an equally Illini-friendly crowd in Indianapolis should we make another run to the Second Weekend.
We got the seed most of us wanted, we got the First Weekend location ALL of us wanted, we got the regional location that everyone hoped for and our #11 and #3 draws were far from the most daunting out of the options available. Regardless of what happens later this week, we should be thankful!
SampsonRelpenk
- Edwardsville, IL
I didn't look over the data but add '07 against 5 seed Virginia Tech to that list.
You're right, I wasn't counting those first round games when we were a double digit seed. in '07 we were the 12 against a 5 and in '95 we were the 11 seed against a 6. We lost both, so we're actually 0-4 in scenarios where we played a seed at least 2 seeds higher than us that wasn't a 1 seed. The specific scenario of playing as a 6 seed against the 3 or 7 seed against the 2 seed we're 0-2.
Maybe we are due this year!
LouHenson
- Naples Florida
Well for those of us old enough to remember the Harv, Bartow years (I am not old enough to remember before Harv) there were never any tournaments for Illinois. It was different in so many fewer teams and at one point it was only the conference champion that went to the tourney.
This is totally why I use “Lou” as my name, because as about a 13 year old he changed Illinois in to a “winner”. Before Lou we just stunk. He never had the tourney success that he probably should have, but if you think the job BU has done pulling us out of the Groce years? Multiply that x10 and that is what Lou did in his time.
Unpredictable team this year, as much smoke for a surprise deep run as there is a disappointing early exit. The 8-8 record vs tournament teams supports the seemingly coin flip views of the prognosticators.
It's kind of crazy when you compare last year to this one. All of the podcasts were really high on us last year. This year, not so much. There is no concensus because of our irratic inconsistent performances from game to game. I too can see us losing the first game or winning a couple. Would be great to get the opportunity to play KY and send them packing.
Goillinikobd
- Southeastern US
Yes we are now tagged as
The team that can beat anyone
And
The team that can lose to anyone
No more talk about bracket busting
Sigh, i long for the days of Kofi, Ayo, TSJ
And iirc, up until the mid 90's or so, we had NEVER beaten a better-seeded team. That was shameful.
I hope we're practicing some hyper aggressive defense. Not so much for doing it in games (though I think it has been effective the few time we've tried in late in games), but to get our offense more accustomed to playing against it. I kinda get the impression that aggressive defense is the main thing that causes us to start crumbling mentally, lose all confidence in our shots, and kinda give up on the boards.
(No Texas scouts are going to read this, are they?)
(No Texas scouts are going to read this, are they?)
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Yeah, it's difficult to imagine something ever topping 2005! While the first season I remember is 2001 (I remember watching that Arizona Elite Eight loss with my dad as a first grader learning to love the Illini, lol), the first real "selection process" I remember is 2004. Since then, with the obvious exception of 2005, this is easily our most favorable geographic placement. Rounds we actually made are in green and our theoretical next stops (that we didn't make) are in red:
2004: #5 Seed. Columbus, OH --> Atlanta, GA --> San Antonio, TX
2005: #1 Seed. Indianapolis, IN --> Rosemont, IL --> St. Louis, MO
2006: #4 Seed. San Diego, CA --> Washington, DC --> Indianapolis, IN
2007: #12 Seed. Columbus, OH --> San Jose, CA --> Atlanta, GA
2009: #5 Seed. Portland, OR --> Memphis, TN --> Detroit, MI
2013: #7 Seed. Austin, TX --> Washington, DC --> Atlanta, GA
2022: #4 Seed. Pittsburgh, PA --> San Antonio, TX --> New Orleans, LA
2023: #9 Seed. Des Moines, IA --> Las Vegas, NV --> Houston, TX
2024: #3 Seed. Omaha, NE --> Boston, MA --> Glendale, AZ
2025: #6 Seed. Milwaukee, WI --> Indianapolis, IN --> San Antonio, TX
There really is no competition after 2005, IMO. I mean, that 2006 Final Four location in Indy probably looked pretty enticing back when we thought we were on top of the world, but the first two locations sucked. 2005 was a dream scenario, but 2025 is about as good as it gets pre-Final Four! Let's hope we have a great team next year, because this could be our path next year if we are a protected seed ... it's a flip of 2005!
2026: St. Louis, MO --> Chicago, IL --> Indianapolis, IN
If I remember correctly, national consensus was we were going to get knocked out by BYU in the 2nd round, and some had us even as a trendy upset pick to lose to Morehead State. Pretty much nobody had us getting by Iowa State.
Trying to reconcile this with odds I’m seeing:
We seem to be getting the best odds of any 6 seed to reach the sweet 16. Could be because they know I’m an Illinois fan and more inclined to bet the illini, but it is making me feel better no matter the cause.
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